1、I Emissions Gap Report 2019 Emissions Gap Report 2019 2019 United Nations Environment Programme ISBN: 978-92-807-3766-0 Job number: DEW/2263/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright

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4、sclaimers The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of United Nations Environment Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the d

5、elimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. For general guidance on matters relating to the use of maps in publications please go to http:/www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/english/htmain.htm Mention of a commercial company or product in this document does not imply endorsement by the United Nations Env

6、ironment Programme or the authors. The use of information from this document for publicity or advertising is not permitted. Trademark names and symbols are used in an editorial fashion with no intention on infringement of trademark or copyright laws. The views expressed in this publication are those

7、 of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Environment Programme. We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made. Maps, photos, and illustrations as specified Suggested citation United Nations Environment Programme (2019). Emissions Gap Repo

8、rt 2019. UNEP, Nairobi. http:/www.unenvironment.org/emissionsgap Supported by: Emissions Gap Report 2019 November 2019 Emissions Gap Report 2019 IV Emissions Gap Report 2019 V Acknowledgements The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) would like to thank the members of the steering committee,

9、the lead and contributing authors, reviewers and the secretariat for their contribution to the preparation of this assessment report. Authors and reviewers have contributed to the report in their individual capacities. Their affiliations are only mentioned for identification purposes. Project steeri

10、ng committee Juliane Berger (German Environment Agency), John Christensen (UNEP DTU Partnership), Navroz K. Dubash (Centre for Policy Research, India), Jian Liu (UNEP), Simon Maxwell (Independent), Surabi Menon (ClimateWorks Foundation), Bert Metz (European Climate Foundation), Katia Simeonova (UNFC

11、CC), Priyadarshi Shukla (Ahmedabad University), Oksana Tarasova (World Meteorological Organization), Merlyn van Voore (UNEP) Chapter 1 Lead authors: Anne Olhoff (UNEP DTU Partnership), John Christensen (UNEP DTU Partnership) Chapter 2 Lead authors: Takeshi Kuramochi (NewClimate Institute, Germany),

12、Michel den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Glen Peters (CICERO, Norway) Contributing authors: Andrzej Ancyger (Climate Analytics, Germany), Ankit Bhardwaj (Centre for Policy Research, India), Gabriel Blanco (National University of the Center of the Buenos Aires Province, Arg

13、entina), Taryn Fransen (World Resources Institute, USA), Andreas Geiges (Climate Analytics, Germany), Frederic Hans (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Christopher Henderson (World Resources Institute, USA), Niklas Hhne (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Kejun Jiang (Energy Research Institute, China), Ma

14、ria Jose de Villafranca (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Kimon Keramidas (Joint Research Centre/European Commissions), Joojin Kim (Solutions For Our Climate, Republic of Korea), Akihisa Kuriyama (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan), Leonardo Nascimento (NewClimate Institute, German

15、y), Jos Olivier (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Deger Saygin (SHURA, Turkey), Ranping Song (World Resources Institute, China), Claire Stockwell (Climate Analytics, Germany), Kentaro Tamura (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan), Paola Tanguy (NewClimate Institute,

16、Germany), Heleen van Soest (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Jorge Villarreal Padilla (Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico), Ryan Wilson (Climate Analytics, Germany), William Wills (Centro Clima, Brazil), Paola Yanguas Parra (Climate Analytics, Germany) Chapter 3 Lead authors: Joeri Rogelj

17、 (Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, UK; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria), Michel den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) Contributing authors: Daniel Huppmann (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria), Gunnar Luderer

18、(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany) Chapter 4 Lead authors: Niklas Hhne (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Taryn Fransen (World Resources Institute, USA), Frederic Hans (NewClimate Institute, Germany) Contributing authors: Ankit Bhardwaj (Centre for Policy Research, India), Gabrie

19、l Blanco (National University of the Center of the Buenos Aires Province, Argentina), Jesse Burton (University of Cape Town, South Africa), Michel den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Markus Hagemann (NewClimate Institute, Germany), Christopher Henderson (World Resources Inst

20、itute, USA), Maria Daniela Keesler (National University of the Center of the Buenos Aires Province, Argentina), Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China), Akihisa Kuriyama (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan), Fu Sha (National Centre for Climate Change Strategy, China),

21、 Ranping Song (World Resources Institute, China), Kentaro Tamura (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan), Jorge Villarreal (Iniciativa Climtica de Mxico), William Wills (Centro Clima, Brazil) Chapter 5 Lead authors: Nebojsa Nakienovi (International Institute for Applied Systems Analys

22、is and Vienna University of Technology, Austria), Charlie Wilson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK) Contributing authors: Bill Colglazier (American Association for Advancement of Science), Owen Gaffney (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany), Dirk Messner (United Natio

23、ns University), Narasimha Rao (Yale School of Forestry every year of postponed peaking means that deeper and faster cuts will be required. By 2030, emissions would need to be 25 per cent and 55 per cent lower than in 2018 to put the world on the least-cost pathway to limiting global warming to below

24、 2C and 1.5C respectively. Figure ES.1 shows a decomposition of the average annual growth rates of economic activity (gross domestic product GDP), primary energy use, energy use per unit of GDP, CO2 emissions per unit of energy and GHG emissions from all sources for Organisation for Economic Co-oper

25、ation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD members. Economic growth has been much stronger in non-OECD members, growing at over 4.5 per cent per year in the last decade compared with 2 per cent per year in OECD members. Since OECD and non-OECD members have had similar declines in the amount of energy

26、 used per unit of economic activity, stronger economic growth means that primary energy use has increased much faster in non-OECD members (2.8 per cent per year) than in OECD members (0.3 per cent per year). OECD members already use less energy per unit of economic activity, which suggests that non-

27、 OECD members have the potential to accelerate improvements even as they grow, industrialize and urbanize their economies in order to meet development objectives. While the global data provide valuable insight for understanding the continued growth in emissions, it is necessary to examine the trends

28、 of major emitters to gain a clearer picture of the underlying trends (figure ES.2). Country rankings change dramatically when comparing total and per capita emissions: for example, it is evident that China now has per capita emissions in the same range as the European Union (EU) and is almost at a

29、similar level to Japan. Consumption-based emission estimates, also known as a carbon footprint, that adjust the standard territorial emissions for imports and exports, provide policymakers with a deeper insight into the role of consumption, trade and the interconnectedness of countries. Figure ES.3

30、shows that the net flow of embodied carbon is from developing to developed countries, even as developed countries reduce their territorial emissions this effect is being partially offset by importing embodied carbon, implying for example that EU per capita emissions are higher than Chinese when cons

31、umption-based emissions are included. It should be noted that consumption- based emissions are not used within the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Chapter 4 Trends And Bridging the gap: Strengthening NDCs and domestic policies 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 201820

32、99019952000 Global greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO?e) Land-use change (LUC) Fluorinated gases (F-gas) N?O CH? Fossil CO? Average annual growth rate (% per year) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 GHG Fluorinated gases N?O CH? CO? w/o LUC Carbon intensity Energy intensity Primary energy GDP (PPP) Growth r

33、ate non-OECD: 20092018 Growth rate OECD: 20092018 Figure ES.1. Average annual growth rates of key drivers of global CO2 emissions (left of dotted line) and components of greenhouse gas emissions (right of dotted line) for OECD and non-OECD members Emissions Gap Report 2019 XVI 2. G20 members account

34、 for 78 per cent of global GHG emissions. Collectively, they are on track to meet their limited 2020 Cancun Pledges, but seven countries are currently not on track to meet 2030 NDC commitments, and for a further three, it is not possible to say. As G20 members account for around 78 per cent of globa

35、l GHG emissions (including land use), they largely determine global emission trends and the extent to which the 2030 emissions gap will be closed. This report therefore pays close attention to G20 members. G20 members with 2020 Cancun Pledges are collectively projected to overachieve these by about

36、1 GtCO2e per year. However, several individual G20 members (Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, the United States of America) are currently projected to miss their Cancun Pledges or will not achieve them with great certainty. Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have not ma

37、de 2020 pledges and pledges from several countries that meet their targets are rather unambitious. Australia is carrying forward their overachievement from the Kyoto period to meet their 2020 Cancun 20010 0 3 6 9 12 15 GtCO?e 20010 0 5 10 15 20 25 tCO?e per capita ChinaChina Ru

38、ssiaRussia USAUSA Int. transportInt. transport JapanJapan IndiaIndia EU-28EU-28 GlobalGlobal Figure ES.2. Top greenhouse gas emitters, excluding land-use change emissions due to lack of reliable country-level data, on an absolute basis (left) and per capita basis (right) Pledge and counts cumulative

39、 emissions between 2013 and 2020. With this method, the Australian Government projects that the country will overachieve its 2020 pledge. However, if this carry- forward approach is not taken, Australia will not achieve its 2020 pledge. On the progress of G20 economies towards their NDC targets, six

40、 members (China, the EU28, India, Mexico, Russia and Turkey) are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current policies. Among them, three countries (India, Russia and Turkey) are projected to be more than 15 per cent lower than their NDC target emission levels. These results sugges

41、t that the three countries have room to raise their NDC ambition significantly. The EU28 has introduced climate legislation that achieves at least a 40 per cent reduction in GHG emissions, which the European Commission projects could be overachieved if domestic legislation is fully implemented in me

42、mber states. In contrast, seven G20 members require further action of varying degree to achieve their NDC: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, the Republic of Korea, South Africa and the United States of Emissions Gap Report 2019 XVII Figure ES.3. CO2 emissions allocated to the point of emissions (ter

43、ritorial) and the point of consumption, for absolute emissions (left) and per capita (right) 209972099220027 0 2 4 6 8 10 GtCO? 0 5 10 15 20 25 tCO? per capita ChinaChina consumptionconsumption USAUSA IndiaIndia EU-28EU-28 territorialterritorial territorialterritoria

44、l consumptionconsumption America. For Brazil, the emissions projections from three annually updated publications were all revised upward, reflecting the recent trend towards increased deforestation, among others. In Japan, however, current policy projections have been close to achieving its NDC targ

45、et for the last few years. Studies do not agree on whether Argentina, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are on track to meet their unconditional NDCs. For Argentina, recent domestic analysis that reflects the most recent GHG inventory data up to 2016 projects that the country will achieve its unconditional

46、 NDC target, while two international studies project that it will fall short of its target. For Indonesia, this is mainly due to uncertainty concerning the countrys land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions. For Saudi Arabia, the limited amount of information on the countrys climate

47、policies has not allowed for further assessments beyond the two studies reviewed. Some G20 members are continuously strengthening their mitigation policy packages, leading to a downward revision of current policy scenario projections for total emissions over time. One example is the EU, where a noti

48、ceable downward shift has been observed in current policy scenario projections for 2030 since the 2015 edition of the Emissions Gap Report. 3. Although the number of countries announcing net zero GHG emission targets for 2050 is increasing, only a few countries have so far formally submitted long-te

49、rm strategies to the UNFCCC. An increasing number of countries have set net zero emission targets domestically and 65 countries and major subnational economies, such as the region of California and major cities worldwide, have committed to net zero emissions by 2050. However, only a few long-term strategies submitted to the UNFCCC have so far committed to a timeline for net zero emissions, none of which are from a G20 member. Five G20 members (the EU and four individual members) have committed to long-term zero emission targets, of which three are currently