1、2020 Luxury FirstLook 6 t h E d i t i o n N e w Y o r k , J a n u a r y 1 5 , 2 0 2 0 TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 1 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Luxury market reaches 920 B in 18, expected to grow at 4.6% per year until 25, experiential 2pp faster 412 590 2

2、80 330 2025F 464 291 2016 285 1,256 2015 445 2013 322 522 318 2014 323 566 201712018E 405 851 860 2012 692 730 755 844 889 920 542 6.8% 2.9% 4.6% 1. Restated Note: Numbers rounded. Personal includes leather accessories, apparel, watches and jewelry (branded and unbranded) and perfumes and cosmetics;

3、 Experiential includes furniture, food and wine and hotel and exclusive vacations Source: BCG Luxury Market Model Personal and Experiential Luxury Market (B)CAGR 15-1818-25F 4.8% 8.2% 0.8% 4.2% 3.0% 5.4% Personal goods regaining strength and experiential goods maintaining growth 12-15 Experiential P

4、ersonal TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 2 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Personal luxury reaches 405 B by 25, growing at 3% p.a. from 18, driven by perfumes, cosmetics and accessories 119120121 129 124126127 137 61 65 67 77 79 81 84 118 61 60 61 70 66 67 68 81 39

5、 40 41 47 49 50 52 69 20162018E200F Perfumes Millennial, 1978-1992; Gen X, 1963-1977; Baby Boomers, 1946-1962; Silvers, 1945 Source: BCG Luxury Market Model 32 106 203 135 85 35 126 2018E 12 Gen. Z 2025F Baby Boomers and Silvers1 330 405 50% of luxury personal goods market is e

6、xpected to be made by Millennial consumption Gen Z expected to triple by 2025, growing double digit p.a 3x 130% of the growth in luxury personal goods market is expected to come from Millennials By 2025 4% 32% 38% 26% Gen. X Millennials 8% 50% 33% 9% Generation share (%) Between 2018 and 2025 Millen

7、nials expected to double by 2025 2x TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 4 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Chinese will represent 40% of the market by 2025 of the personal luxury goods market expected to come from Chinese consumption Between 2018 and 2025Nationality pr

8、edictions (B) on the personal luxury market 1. Italy, France, UK, Germany 2. 2017 restated Note: Numbers rounded. Personal includes leather accessories, apparel, watches and jewelry and perfumes and cosmetics Source: BCG Luxury Market Model Chinese affluent class expected to double by 2025, growing

9、double digit p.a 95 104 108 164 67 65 65 71 43 43 43 46 36 32 32 32 78 80 82 93 201722025F Top 4 EU1 Japan 2018E2016 Other North America China 318 323 330 405of the growth in personal luxury goods market expected to come from Chinese By 2025 32% 20% 41% 17% 13% 11% 10% 8% 25% 23% Geographical share

10、(%) 40% 75% 2x TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 5 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 18.5M True-Luxury Consumers generating 30% of global market, continuing to polarize in the next years Absolute Top Absolute Entry Absolute 5.2 1.4 11.5 6.5 2.2 13.9 Total True-Luxury1

11、8.523 CLUSTER2018 Pop. (M)Size (B) 2025F Top Aspirational21.528 Other Aspirational385443 920 B1,256 B Total Luxury Consumers 2 k 5 k 20 k 10 k 50 k Beyond money0.40.6 105 33 118 145 54 155 278395 2241 6490 578771 Note: Includes personal and experiential luxury, excluding cars and yachts Source: BCG

12、Luxury Market Model 30%31% 425 M494 M Pop. (M)Size (B) 90% +69M Out of the True- Luxury growth, 90% will come from new consumers 10% 10% from increased spend per True-Luxury consumer 30% of total luxury market value was generated by just 4% of consumers the True-Luxury ones +117 B +219 B +336 B Betw

13、een 2018 and 2025 In 2018 Collaborations TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 7 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. 94% Collaborations importance confirmed, with awareness reaching 90% of True-Luxury consumers 95%95% 87% 70% 57% 5%5% 13% 30% 43% 89% 11% 2018 Not aware12% 8

14、8% 2017 Aware Driven by younger generations Gen. Z MillennialsGen. X Baby BoomersSilvers +1pp Note: Limited responses available for Silvers Source: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) Collaborations 96% 87% 82% 13% 18% 4% and Chin

15、ese Thinking about special editions realized in collaboration with different brands / artists, which of the following statements best apply to you? If you dont know about them select I am not aware Overall True-Luxury consumers TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 8 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consultin

16、g Group. All rights reserved. Half of True-Luxury consumers have purchased special editions, again driven by younger generations and Chinese 50% 50% 2018 No Yes Note: Limited responses available for Silvers Source: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ responde

17、nts in 10 countries) 67% 60% 40% 20% 14% 33% 40% 60% 80% 86% Gen. Z MillennialsGen. X Baby BoomersSilvers Have you ever purchased special editions created by brands in collaboration with different artists/brands? Collaborations 62% 45% 47% 38% 55% 53% By generationBy nationality Overall True-Luxury

18、consumers TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 9 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Demand for collaboration mirrors the rise of new luxury values, particularly among Chinese consumers Overall True-Luxury consumers Note: Selected responses shown of rank top 3 question Sou

19、rce: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) 12% Superior quality and materials Exclusivity Brand visibility 40% Craftmanship Timeless/Everlasting Gift, treat or reward for myself Extravagant and fun products An identity statement 13%

20、 29% Adorned aesthetics Cool/sexy Customization Brand iconic patterns Innovation 13% Heritage 13% Superior customer care (after-sale) 26% 23% 20% 16% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 40% 19% 22% 22% 19% 14% 15% 13% 10% 15% 17% 17% 13% 12% 18% 15% 13% 19% 38% 27% 31% 25% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 14% 14% 11% 33% 41% 23

21、% 20% 34% 13% 13% 8% 16% 12% 13% 10% 14% 10% 12% By nationality Luxury to me is Traditional Luxury values New Luxury values Collaborations 22% new values 26% new values 22% new values 22% new values TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 10 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved

22、. 9% 9% 11% 9% 11% 10% 17% 16% Handbags and sneakers dominate collaborations and special edition purchases Source: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) Thinking about special editions created by brands in collaboration with differe

23、nt artists/brands, which category have you ever purchased? Collaborations 19% Top-purchased product categories among collaborations and special editions 2. Sneakers 21%33%20%18% 4. Backpacks5. T-shirts1. Handbags 28% 47% FemaleMale % of special edtions buyers 3. Formal shoes Second-hand luxury TRUE

24、LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 12 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Luxury 2nd-hand market estimated at 22 B and growing faster than overall personal luxury. Second-hand luxury Total personal luxury market size (B)2nd-hand luxury market size (B) 330 361 2018E2021F +3% 2

25、2 31 2021F2018E +12% 1. Second-hand personal luxury sales as share of total personal luxury market size Source: BCG True-Luxury Market Model; Analyst reports; Expert interviews; BCG analysis Share of total personal luxury market1 7 %9 % Note: On the most penetrated categories, and most successful br

26、ands, this can rise to 15-20% TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 13 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Most True-Luxury consumers interested in purchasing luxury 2nd-hand products Note: Selected most important answers Source: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer In

27、sight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) Have you ever purchased second hand / pre-owned luxury items? Driven by Second-hand luxury Do not trust resellers and afraid of counterfeit goods Not interested / would never buy pre-owned 34% 35% 13%Afraid of buying products in bad condi

28、tion Thanks to online platforms, there is more transparency on price and authenticity of 2nd-hand market Perceived price-quality ratio Look for sold out/ limited edition/ vintage items 32% 19% 17% 40% 60%Interested 2018 Not interested 60% are interested in purchasing pre-owned luxury items TRUE LUXU

29、RY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 14 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. One-third of True-Luxury respondents sell luxury items, to primarily empty wardrobe and finance new luxury purchases Source: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ resp

30、ondents in 10 countries) 34% 66% Yes 2018 No 34% have previously sold luxury items through 2nd-hand platforms Have you ever sold on / through second-hand platforms? Reasons why Second-hand luxury 21% To empty my wardrobe Dont find the item trendy anymore Unhappy with a gift I received This is truly

31、sustainable behavior To finance new luxury purchases I find it amusing 44% 17% 9% 5% 5% TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 15 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Younger True-Luxury consumers largest participants in 2nd-hand, with supply driven by younger generations and

32、 demand driven by older 9%9% 12% 17% 18% 21% 18% 11% 8% 13% 24% 21% 15% 11% 10% 62% 46% 52% 59% 65% Gen. Z MillennialGen. X Baby BoomerSilver Second-hand luxury 45% of True-Luxury consumers participate in 2nd-hand market 11% 15% 19% Purchase only Does not participate Sell and purchase Sell only 55%

33、2018 Younger generations bigger sellers, older generations bigger buyers Source: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) 45% participation in 2nd-hand market Sustainability in luxury TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 17 Copyright 20

34、19 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Consumers increasingly informed about sustainability, resulting in greater influence over purchase decisions Sustainability Source: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) For a give

35、n item, over 60% would purchase from the more sustainable brand 12% 23% 38% 39% 35% 26% 10% 7% 6% 2013 4% 2018 62% 14% 23% 37% 38% 32% 26% 12% 8% 6%5% 20182013 61% 12% 20% 33% 36% 33% 28% 15% 11% 7%6% 2018 Disagree Completely agree 2013 Agree Indifferent Completely disagree 56% For the same product

36、I would choose a brand that supports sustainability rather than a brand that does not Knowing that a brand cares about sustainability can make a difference to me in choosing it I try to get informed whether the brand I buy is socially responsible 56% of consumers investigate a brands social responsi

37、bility +11pp +12pp+10pp TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 18 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. greatest influence on younger generations, and substantial variation across nationalities Note: Limited responses available for Silver generation which may influence trend S

38、ource: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) Does the Sustainability topic influence your purchasing behavior? 64%64% 56% 46% 37% 36%36% 44% 54% 63% 59%Yes No41% 2018 Gen. Z MillennialGen. X Baby BoomerSilver 60% influenced by susta

39、inability, reaching 64% of younger generations Sustainability 81% 70% 66%66% 62% 54% 45%45% 43% 19% 30% 34%34% 38% 46% 55%55% 57% and from 81% of South Koreans to less than 50% of UK and US All TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 19 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. wit

40、h Environmental and Animal criteria most valued when purchasing luxury goods, driven by younger generations Sustainability Note: 12 personal sustainability criteria grouped into above four categories. Limited responses available for Silver which may affect generational trend Source: BCG-Altagamma Tr

41、ue-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) Which sustainability criteria do you value when it comes to purchasing luxury goods? 35% 42% 34% 23% 26% 36% 26% 25% 23% 27% 18% 18% 23% 32% 27% 12% 14% 18% 22% 19% Gen. XGen. ZMillennialBaby Boomer Animal care

42、 Silver Transparency of materials Ethical manufacturing Environmental care Environment and Animal concerns dominate sustainability criteria driven by younger generations, while ethics and materials more important to older consumers 37% 100% 27% 21% 15% Environmental care Animal care Ethical manufact

43、. Transparency of materials Luxury casualwear TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 21 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Luxury casualwear confirming last years traction and overall relevance to True-Luxury consumers Overall True-Luxury consumers 80% 25% 28% 32% 72% 68% 7

44、5% 20% 14% 86% 66% 73% 34% 27% 20172016 26% Shift towards luxury casualwear No change towards luxury casualwear 74% 2018 Note: Limited responses available for Silvers Source: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) By generation +1pp

45、Luxury casualwear Gen. Z MillennialsGen. X Baby BoomersSilvers +1pp+1pp+3pp+2pp-1pp in shift to casualwear (vs. 2017) TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 22 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Casual product categories main driver of expected increase in spending, led by

46、jeans and sneakers In which categories will your spending on luxury goods be affected the most and in which direction? Note: Index: % People expecting to increase spending - % of people expecting to decrease spending in that category Source: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey D

47、ec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) Expected spending increase by product category and by gender Luxury casualwear 20% 25% 31% 45% 46% 1% SneakersT-ShirtsJeansFormal shoes Formal coats Ties 15% 23% 33% 34% 36% 39% Biased to casual Biased to formal MaleFemale Formal shoes DressesFormal co

48、ats JeansPants excl. smartwatches, smartphones and tablets Source: BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury Global Consumer Insight Survey Dec 18/Jan 19 (12K+ respondents in 10 countries) 33% 29% 20% 34% 38% 33% 15% 18% 38% 11% 9% 5% 3% 2% 5% 2%2% 2% Which kind of online store did you buy the product from? Overall

49、By nationality Channel mix 28%28% 37% 34% 23% 22% 7% 9% Off price e-tailers 2% 4% 2% Online flash sales 4% 20172018 Generalist marketplaces (e.g. Amazon, Alibaba) Full price multi-brand (e.g. NAP, Farfetch) Mono-brand websites (e.g. B) 85% Social media-linked sales TRUE LUXURY GLOBAL CONSUMER INSIGHT 28 Copyright 2019 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Online ecosystem varies broadly across luxury categories 31% 26% 27% 30% 25% 36% 35% 33% 31% 39% 22% 28% 22% 22% 13% 6% 11% 9% 4% 1% 3% 9% 19% 1% 4% 4% 2%2% 3% 2% Note: