1、 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China 2020 Special Report on the State of Business in South China 华南美国商会 2020 年华南地区经济情况特别报告 Content目录 56 Special Supporter 特别支持机构 58 economic overview in South China 华南地区经济概况 66 Guangdong 广东 86 Fujian 福建 100 Guangxi 广西 128 Hainan 海南 142 Hong Kong 香港 150 Mac

2、ao 澳门 01 Preface 02 Study reSultS 03 economic overview 序言 调查结果 经济概况 18 Demographics 受访企业组成 22 Revenue and Profitability 收入与利润 30 Reinvestment trends 再投资趋势 43 Business and operational environment 营商及运营环境 49 US-China Bilateral Relations 美中双边关系 08 Presidents Message 会长致辞 13 Key takeaways 关键要点 15 Specia

3、l Sponsor 特别赞助商 2020 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China 版权所有 华南美国商会 2020年 “South China Economic Overview” courtesy of EY. “华南地区经济概况” 由安永授权刊登。 Reproduction for commercial use is strictly prohibited. This document is available free of charge in electronic form at: http:/www.amcham-southch

4、ina.org 严禁复制以作商业用途。 华南美国商会官方网站提供该出版物电子版免费下载。 Last updated: March 15, 2020 最后更新日期： 2020年3月15日 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China Suite 2208, Guangdong International Building, 339 Huanshi East Road, Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, PRC, 510098 华南美国商会 中华人民共和国广东省广州市越秀区环市东路339

5、号 广东国际大厦2208室, 邮政编码： 510098 Tel. (86 20) 8335 1476 Fax. (86 20) 8332 1642 amchamamcham-southchina.org www.amcham-southchina.org 01 Preface 序言 89 D ear Members, The data involved in this 2020 Special Report on the State of Business in South China is untainted by the recent confusing events and variou

6、s governmental actions as it intentionally only includes data compiled and analyzed prior to the onset of the Novel Coronavirus outbreak and measures taken by China to protect its people and those of other countries. While it is entirely too early to determine the total impact of the virus on China

7、and world economy, we have already conducted two follow-up studies and plan to conduct a comprehensive study at some point in the future when the cloud has cleared and life is back. We have done so as we believe this 2020 Special Report on the State of Business in South China accurately assesses wha

8、t businesses will do once they are back to business. Please visit www.amcham-southchina.org to access additional studies free of charge, as they become available. The Chinese government continuously stepped up its efforts to curtail the virus in an open and productive way, but it was impossible to p

9、redict which direction this epidemic would take. Chinas government suspended most access to Wuhan, the city at the center of the outbreak on Jan. 23. Restrictions expanded to cities with a total of 60 million people in the broadest anti-disease measures ever imposed. Restaurants, shops and other bus

10、inesses nationwide were ordered to close. World Health Organization (WHO) officials have expressed their encouragement concerning the steps China has taken to prevent widespread transmission outside its borders. The countrys precautions for the most part contained the outbreak at its source and appe

11、ared to have bought the world time. International teams of experts worked closely with their Chinese counterparts to understand the outbreak and to minimize the transmission of new cases. According to this years Special Report, American companies in South China have been less affected by the virus o

12、utbreak and decisions made by the government to contain it. Our Chamber has been working with our members to develop plans to defend against such situations for well over a decade. Since 2006, I have encouraged our companies to develop strategies against viral outbreaks as it was always “not a quest

13、ion of if but when” a virus would strike. This planning is also the reason why with encouragement from AmCham South China its members donated 38 million US dollars in cash and 1.05 million US dollars Presidents Message 会长致辞 尊 敬的会员： 本书， 即 2020年华南地区经济情况特别报告 所涉及的数据未受最近令人困惑的事件和各种政府 行为的影响， 因为本报告旨在只含新型冠状病

14、毒爆 发前以及中国为保护本国人民和他国人民而采取的 措施以前汇编和分析的数据。 虽然现在确定病毒对 中国和世界经济的总体影响还为时尚早， 但我们已 经进行了两项后续研究， 并计划在未来疫情烟消云 散、 生机重现时进行全面研究。 我们这样做， 因为我 们相信 2020年华南地区经济情况特别报告 准确地 评估了企业一旦恢复业务将采取什么措施。 请访问 华南美国商会网站www.amcham-southchina.org 免费获取这几项研究的完整报告。 虽然中国政府持续加大疫情抗击力度， 以开放有 效的方式遏制病毒传染， 但疫情发展方向仍难以预 测。 1月23日， 中国政府封停了大部分进入疫情中心 城

15、市武汉的通道， 封城涉及人口总数达6000万人， 这 是迄今为止实施范围最广的传染病抗击措施。 全国 范围内， 餐饮店铺、 商场及其他企业被勒令停业。 世 界卫生组织 （WHO） 对中国为防止病毒在境外广泛传 播而作出的努力表示赞扬。 中国的预防措施在很大 程度上从源头上遏制疫情蔓延， 这显然已经为世界 赢得了时间。 国际专家组与中国同行密切合作， 以了 解疫情状况并尽最大可能减少新增病例。 根据今年的 特别报告 ， 华南地区的美国公司受 病毒爆发及政府措施的影响较小。 十余年来， 华南美 国商会一直与会员企业一同为防范类似局势制定应 对计划。 2006年以来， 我们一直鼓励各公司制定应对 病

16、毒爆发的战略， 毕竟， 病毒爆发只是迟早的问题。 也正因有此规划， 华南美国商会会员企业才能在2月 中旬前捐赠3800万美元现金和价值105万美元的物 资援助武汉、 湖北等疫情严重地区。 作为长期致力于 公益事业的无党派、 非盈利性商业组织， 华南美国商 会将继续全力以赴， 呼吁商会会员企业和个人捐赠 资金及物资帮助抗击疫情， 特别是捐赠医疗物资和 防护用品， 包括口罩， 防护帽、 防护服、 护目镜和一次 性乳胶手套等。 华南美国商会会员企业会一直与中 国同行携手并肩， 共同抗击此次疫情。 中国有一个强大的公共卫生体系， 但现在这不仅 仅是中国的问题。 世卫组织称该病毒威胁全球健康。 in-k

17、ind to aid Wuhan, Hubei, and other areas in need by mid-February. As a foreign non-profit, non-partisan business organization with long-term dedication to the public welfare, AmCham South China is continuing to make an all-out effort by calling on members and individuals to donate funds and supplies

18、 to help contain the virus outbreak, especially medical supplies and protective items, including face masks, protective caps, suits, goggles and disposable latex gloves. Our members have been working hand in hand with our Chinese counterparts to fight this outbreak. China has a strong public health

19、system, but this is now more than just a China problem. WHO has called the virus a threat to global health. America has already seen over a dozen deaths caused by the virus. Other countries such as Italy and South Korea have seen far more. The international community must come together to not only h

20、elp China in its time of need but to also intensify its own preparedness. The virus that emerged in central China in December has infected over 100,000 people globally and has killed far too many people, the vast majority in China. World leaders need to do better. The severe acute respiratory syndro

21、me (SARS) of 2003 is nothing more than a vague memory for most Americans. The global economy has changed since 2003. China now accounts for 16 percent of global GDP, up from 4 percent back then. And it is the worlds second- biggest importer. Any weakness, however temporary, is felt far and wide. The

22、 economy has not just grown since 2000, the countrys manufacturers have also become entangled in supply chains of mind-boggling complexity. A factory in Wuhan may provide parts to a firm in Guangzhou, which in turn supplies a factory somewhere else in the world, with the final product emerging in Mi

23、chigan. Just-in-time production leaves little room for delays. Many firms cannot trace all their suppliers, making it hard to predict the impact of work stoppages in China on their output, let alone on global GDP. For too long the world has operated on a cycle of panic and neglect. We echo the UN he

24、alth agencys director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus: “We throw money at an outbreak, and when its over we forget about it and do nothing to prevent the next one.” The Novel Coronavirus is drawing much-needed attention to the possibility of a global health crisis. Awareness, however, is not enou

25、gh. The status quo has made us all vulnerable. Lives will continue to be at risk to similar occurrences without more action from policymakers from across the planet. The human toll of the virus is not the only major problem at hand. It is becoming increasingly clear that restarting China, the worlds

26、 largest manufacturer and a giant of global trade, will be difficult even as the country makes major strides to contain the outbreak. Im proud to say our staff and members are doing their part. We contacted all of our members by telephone 美国已经有十多人死于这种病毒。 意大利和韩国等其 他国家的情况更严峻。 国际社会必须齐心协力， 不仅 在中国有需之时帮助中

27、国， 而且还要加强自身的准 备。 去年12月在华中地区出现的这种病毒已经在全 球范围内感染了超过10万人， 造成了多人死亡， 其中 绝大多数是在中国。 世界的领导人需要做得更好。 对 大多数美国人来说， 2003年的严重急性呼吸系统综 合征 （SARS） 不过是一个模糊的记忆。 2003年以来， 全球经济发生了变化。 中国目前占全球GDP的16%， 高于当时的4%。 它是世界第二大进口国。 任何的弱 点， 尽管是暂时的， 都能在全球范围感觉到。 2000年 以来， 中国并非只是经济迅速增长， 其制造商也成为 了全球供应链的一环， 这一供应链的复杂程度超乎想 象。 位于武汉的工厂可能向广州的公司

28、提供零部件， 而广州的公司反过来又向世界其他地方的工厂提供 零部件， 最终产品在密歇根州卖出。 生产要求准时， 几 乎没有任何延误的余地。 许多公司无法追踪其全部供 应商， 因此很难预测中国停工对其产能的影响， 更不 用说对全球GDP的影响了。 长久以来， 世界一直在恐慌与忽视中循环往复。 我们赞同联合国卫生署总干事特德罗阿达诺姆 盖布雷耶苏斯 （Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus） 的 说法，“我们在疫情爆发时投入大量资金， 疫情结束后 又很快忘记， 不采取任何措施来阻止下一次疫情爆 发” 。 新型冠状病毒已经引发人们密切关注发生全球 卫生危机的可能性， 但全球意识依然不足

29、， 疫情面前， 我们都很脆弱。 如果全球政策制定者不采取行动， 我 们将继续面临类似事件带来的生命风险。 病毒感染造成的人员死亡并非目前唯一的重大 问题。 越来越清晰的情况表明， 即便中国在遏制疫情 方面取得了重大进展， 重启中国这一全球最大制造国 及全球贸易巨头仍将困难重重。 我很自豪地说， 我们 商会的工作人员和会员企业一直在努力尽职尽责。 疫 情期间， 华南美国商会的员工通过电话联系了所有 会员企业， 并在2月底发布了 关于新型冠状病毒CO- VID-19爆发影响的特别报告 。 另外， 根据我们3月6 日对会员企业的调查， 95%的企业和93%的工厂都在 运营。 大约80-85%的工作人

30、员已经返回工作岗位。 许 多企业都在加班， 在办公楼设有办公室的公司也严进 错峰来管理人员流动。 商会目前正在向企业会员进行 电话调查， 以确定疫情对企业供应链的影响。 截至2月 底， 从商会向有关政府部门转告之时起24小时以内， 会员企业向商会反映的困难百分十百得到了解决。 在 2019年最后一个季度， 随着消费者在消费时更加谨 慎， 也因为消费者开始感受到疫情在中国爆发所带来 的影响， 全球大部分地区都出现经济增长放缓， 地区 经济疲软脆弱的现象。 目前， 情况很明显， 一切照旧， 1011 possibility of a collapse is not farfetched. In s

31、uch a scenario, world recession would not be far behind. American companies, as well as most companies on the planet, depend on this supply chain for various reasons. Many goods assembled in China or the US depend on raw material from and parts manufactured in many different countries in the world.

32、As it is stated in our White Paper research, it will take 2-3 trillion US dollars to replace the current supply chain. Therefore, it is of paramount importance that the two major economies of this supply chain sit down to establish the stabilizer we suggested earlier in this message. Its time to get

33、 to work. According to a 16-month study by Professor Michael Enright of the University of Hong Kong (former faculty at the Harvard Business School) using foreign direct investment (FDI) numbers and its multipliers, on the average across China one third of Chinas GDP and 27 percent of its employment

34、are created by foreign invested enterprises (FIEs). This analysis also show in Shanghai 67 percent of the industrial output and 90 percent of its high-tech output are created by FIEs. Considering that Chinas 2019 nominal GDP was reported at around US$14.2 trillion, this information translates into r

35、oughly 4.68 trillion US dollars of economy generated by FIEs of which American companies are a substantial part. It has taken billion of US dollars and much commitment and resources to create this part of the economy. While this amount of business is not calculated as a part of the trade deficit, it

36、 creates thousands upon thousands of high paying jobs back in the US. Keeping in mind that even growing at a 6 percent annual rate, China creates over 850 billion additional US dollars to its economy an amount larger than the GDP of Switzerland and just under the entire GDP of the Netherlands. I sug

37、gest that we need to work with China to capture an even larger piece of this economy. With Phase One signed, finalizing a Phase Two deal becomes an absolute necessity. We remain hopeful and determined that these two nations will work out a deal that will eventually see an end to the tit-for-tat tari

38、ffs and harsh rhetoric. But unless the US and China immediately return to the negotiating table to start Phase Two, a step that China has also indicated is not imminent, Phase One will go down as one of the biggest political and economic failures in a generation. For the sake of international market

39、s and trade growth, the negotiations must continue to make progress. Progress can still come, but whether a Phase Two will live up to the promises is anyones guess. The persistent uncertainty over trade has made it hard for companies and investors to make plans with confidence. The world is watching

40、 for leadership from both countries. International trade does not accept that an agreement between the US and China can be pushed down the road for another year. 虽然这部分业务不算是贸易逆差的一部分， 但它反 过来也为美国创造了数千个高薪岗位。 即便仅以6% 的年增长率增长， 中国每年GDP也会增加超过8500 亿美元， 比瑞士整个国家的GDP都高， 略低于荷兰 GDP。 我建议， 我们需要与中国合作， 在中国经济中 占据更大的份额。

41、 随着 中美第一阶段经贸协议 的 签署， 达成第二阶段的交易协议是绝对必要的。 对中美贸易谈判， 我们依旧怀抱希望， 并坚信中 美两国必将达成贸易协定， 最终结束针锋相对的关 税壁垒和言语攻击。 但除非中美两国立即回到谈判 桌上， 开始进行第二阶段谈判 （中方也表示这在近期 很难实现） ， 否则第一阶段将成为这一代人以来最大 的政治失败和经济失败。 为了国际市场和贸易的发 展， 第二阶段谈判必须取得进展。 虽然谈判进展可期， 但无人能确定第二阶段协定 到底能否达成。 贸易局势长期不明朗， 企业和投资者 很难满怀信心地制定计划。 全世都在关注两国领导 的举措， 国际贸易无法接受美中协定再推迟一年

42、。 and released a Special Report on the Impact of COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak in late February. According to our recent polling of members as of March 6, 95% of our companies and 93% of factories were operational. About 80-85% of workers have returned to work. Many companies are working overtime, a

43、nd companies with offices in office buildings are implementing staggered shifts to manage people flow. We are currently calling members to determine the impact of the outbreak on the supply chain. As of the end of February, 100% of difficulties reported by our members were solved within 24 hours fro

44、m the time of being relayed by us to relevant government officials. Economic growth in much of the world slowed in the last quarter of 2019 as consumers became more cautious about spending, leaving the economies vulnerable as they begin to feel the effects of the outbreak in China. It remains clear

45、that business as usual has not fully resumed. One thing that can help would be a Phase II deal between the US and China. This would supply a needed boost to international economies as they restock necessary inventory. For the sake of international trade, the US and China must return to the negotiati

46、ng table. Both countries have a big incentive to agree to the additional issues that are still unresolved. The worlds two biggest economies have been locked in a bruising trade conflict. Hitting each other with rhetorical volleys and tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods is not h

47、elping the process. I believe the key to minimizing conflict is if we can develop shared standards for emerging technologies. Our nations must cooperate to preserve a prosperous international order. US-China ties would be a stabilizer for bilateral relations. Both sides should strengthen strategic c

48、ommunication to avoid misunderstandings and misjudgment. Together we can right the wrongs of the past and deliver a future of economic justice and security. While the bilateral relationship between the US and China has gone through many ups and downs since 2018, many AmCham South China members have

49、withstood the impact to various degrees. Our Special Report this year found relatively stable revenue, profitability, and return on investments in China. While more US companies witnessed decline in revenues from China than their counterparts, their profitability remained better than the others. In spite of all the problems and controversies, China remains one of the top three investment destination in the world by more than a half of studied companies. Willingness to reinvest in China remains strong. Even after the first phase of Trade Agreement was r