1、University of Oxford Research PropTech 2020: the future of real estate WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FOREPROPTECH 2020: THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 1 PROPTECH 2020: THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE This report is the successor to our 2017 report Pro

2、pTech 3.0: the Future of Real Estate. It has been compiled using data from Unissu and Crunchbase, while additional data has been compiled from interviews and other external sources mentioned in the acknowledgements and references. We thank all who have contributed to this report; any stated opinions

3、, and any remaining errors, are our own. The Oxford Future of Real Estate Initiative at the Sad Business School is led by Professor Andrew Baum and is a collaboration between Oxford academics and industry-leading organisations that aims to advance knowledge in real estate: Arcadis, BCLP, CBRE, EY, G

4、rosvenor, Nuveen, Redevco, The Crown Estate and UBS. Our research is grounded in real- world business questions. To find out more about the Initiative, or to read our other research, please visit our website at: https:/www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/research/oxford-future-real-estate- initiative. Any reference to

5、 specific companies or organisations does not constitute a recommendation and is included solely for illustrative or case study purposes. We welcome reader feedback and comments, which can be sent to us via e-mail at realestate.reportssbs.ox.ac.uk Acknowledgements We would like to express sincere th

6、anks to all interviewees, collaborators and contributors. These include all those acknowledged in the predecessor report, PropTech 3.0 The Future of Real Estate, plus, in particular: Unissu Crunchbase We would also like to thank the founding donors to the Oxford Real Estate Initiative (Forbes Elwort

7、hy of Craigmore and The Centre for Studies in Property Valuation and Management Trust) plus Arcadis, BCLP, CBRE, EY, Grosvenor, Nuveen, Redevco, The Crown Estate and UBS for their financial support. Notes Material from interviews is quoted verbatim in the text. Verbatim quotes and materials taken fr

8、om websites are set in italics. Where interview materials are unattributed, this is at the request of the interviewee. The views are of the interviewees and should not be assumed to be the views of the companies they work for. Andrew Baum acknowledges his personal interest in tech businesses referre

9、d to in this report (Proda, Unissu and Reneza). His view of these businesses may not be objective. Andrew Baum, Andrew Saull and Fabian Braesemann Sad Business School February 2020 FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 2 Overview Chapter 1 Introduction In this chapte

10、r we explain our definition of PropTech, the industry verticals which explain different PropTech activity and the history of PropTech growth Chapter 2 The market In this chapter we measure the size of the PropTech market, trace the sources and scale of the investment which has powered this sector an

11、d describe geographical variations in ProptTech activity Chapter 3 Technologies In this chapter we describe the broad or exogenous technologies which have made the PropTech revolution possible Chapter 4 Innovations: smart real estate In this chapter we describe PropTech innovations in the Smart Real

12、 Estate sector, which facilitates the operation of real estate assets Chapter 5 Innovations: real estate fintech In this chapter we describe Real Estate FinTech, meaning the enterprise sector which supports (sale or leasing) transactions of real estate assets Chapter 6 Innovations: The sharing econo

13、my In this chapter we describe the sharing economy, which is a term used to describe the common use of assets supported by apps, websites and technology platforms Chapter 7 Futures In this chapter, we examine the difficulties currently facing many PropTech start-ups and investors, consider how innov

14、ation is accommodated and speculate about what PropTech 2020 will mean for the future of real estate. Chapter 8 Summary and conclusions In this chapter we summarise our findings and identify five key areas of future activity: smart real estate, real estate FinTech, the real estate shared economy, da

15、ta digitalisation and smart cities FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 3 Contents 1. Introduction 1.1 The fourth industrial revolution 1.2 What is PropTech? 1.3 PropTech waves 2. The market 2.1 Sizing the market 2.2 Investment activity 2.3 Geographic dispersion 3.

16、Technologies 3.1 Websites and smartphone apps 3.2 APIs 3.3 Data analysis and visualisation 3.4 The Internet of Things (IoT) 3.5 Artificial intelligence and Machine Learning 3.6 Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) 3.7 Sensors 3.8 Virtual and augmented reality 3.9 Geospatial and 5G tech

17、nologies 3.10 Cloud computing 3.11 Transportation tech: drones, autonomous vehicles and hyperloop 3.12 Other technologies 3.13 Applications 4. Innovations: smart real estate 4.1 Introduction: ConTech and smart real estate 4.2 Smart Buildings 4.3 Building Information Modelling (BIM) and digital twins

18、 4.4 Modular construction 4.5 3D printing and robotics 4.6 Smart materials 4.7 Green buildings 4.8 Increasing occupant wellbeing 4.9 Increasing space utilisation 4.10 Smart retail 4.11 Smart logistics 4.12 Smart residential 4.13 Emerging sectors 4.14 Smart city applications 5. Innovations: real esta

19、te FinTech 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Online residential brokers FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 4 5.3 Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) and iBuyers 5.4 Instant mortgages 5.5 Commercial real estate data 5.6 Legal processes and PropTech 5.7 Real estate transactions 5.

20、8 Crowdfunding and peer-to-peer lending 5.9 Real estate tokenisation 6. Innovations: the shared economy 6.1 Introduction 6.2 The office sector 6.3 Residential real estate 6.4 Other sectors 6.5 The shared economy 3.0 7. Futures 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Technology adoption-diffusion theories 7.3 Barriers

21、to PropTech adoption 7.4 Predicting PropTech adoption 7.5 The entrance of tech giants 7.6 Resisting monopoly 7.7 Tomorrows technology 7.8 Employment 7.9 Global mega forces and sustainability 8. Summary and conclusions References FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE

22、5 1. Introduction In this chapter we explain our definition of PropTech, the industry verticals which explain different PropTech activity and the history of PropTech growth 1.1 The fourth industrial revolution The internet and mobile telephony have enabled a boom in technology platforms applied to n

23、early all areas of our lives jobs, homes, education, health, leisure, finance and even romance. The global shift towards the use of digital technology or the fourth industrial revolution (Schwab, 2017) has facilitated innovation in three different activities. These are as follows. Information provis

24、ion Wikipedia, the BBC website and on-line newspapers are examples of on-line information engines. Initially, the internet, mobile telephony, social networking and e-mail were all about information, hence the previously ubiquitous use of the term infotech. Transactions Information is the key input i

25、nto the due diligence phase of a transaction. Shopping on-line was therefore the natural next phase of technology development. PayPal, Amazon and on- line banking are examples of internet and mobile telephony being used as a medium for the exchange of money, goods and services. Management and contro

26、l PCs, tablets and smartphones are potential dashboards for controlling electronic functions. The Internet of Things (IoT) allows objects to be measured (information provision) but also sensed and/or controlled remotely across the existing network infrastructure, creating opportunities to adjust or

27、turn systems on or off remotely. As an example, Googles 2014 acquisition of Nest to create a Google IoT division was seen at the time as a significant moment. Also, the remote control of driverless cars and delivery vehicles, plus bots offering a range of services, are setting in motion many thought

28、 processes imagineering the likely future of logistics and retail real estate. 1.2 What is PropTech? Real estate as an asset and as an industry is not immune to the innovations made possible by the fourth industrial revolution. What has become widely known as PropTech describes the digital transform

29、ation that is currently taking place within the real estate industry. “PropTech is one small part of the wider digital transformation of the property industry. It describes a movement driving a mentality change within the real estate industry and its consumers regarding technology-driven innovation

30、in data assembly, transactions, and the design of buildings and cities” (Andrew Baum and James Dearsley, reported in Davenport, 2019). In our 2017 report, we suggested that the roots of PropTech lay in three independent movements or impacts. These were Fintech; Smart Building technologies; and the S

31、hared Economy (see Figure 1). FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 6 Figure 1: PropTech roots, 2017 Source: Baum (2017) Smart Buildings describes technology-based platforms which facilitate the operation and management of real estate assets. The assets can be single

32、 property units or entire cities. The platforms may simply provide information about building or urban centre performance, or they may directly facilitate or control building services. This sector supports real estate asset, property and facilities management. We exclude technology which supports th

33、e design and/or construction of buildings or infrastructure from our definition of PropTech (this is usually known as ConTech) and discuss this vertical in Chapter 4. Real Estate FinTech describes technology-based platforms which facilitate the trading of real estate asset ownership. The assets can

34、be buildings, shares or funds, debt or equity. The platforms may simply provide information for prospective buyers and sellers, or they may more directly facilitate or effect transactions of asset ownership or leases with a (negative or positive) capital value. This sector supports the real estate c

35、apital markets. We discuss this vertical in Chapter 5. The Shared Economy describes technology-based platforms which facilitate the use of real estate assets. The assets can be land or buildings, including offices, shops, storage, housing and other property types. The platforms may simply provide in

36、formation for prospective users and sellers of space, or they may more directly facilitate or effect rent- or fee-based transactions. This sector supports the real estate occupier markets. We discuss this vertical in Chapter 6. We can add further influences to this schematic. ConTech, whose origins

37、lie in computer- aided design or CAD, is a strong driver of smart building tech. LegalTech (characterised by smart contracts) is a facilitator of many real estate FinTech applications. Figure 2 is our updated schematic. In addition to our three initial drivers, we now include ConTech and LegalTech.

38、FinTech Shared economy Smart buildings PropTech Real estate FinTech FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 7 Figure 2: PropTech roots, 2020 Source: FoRE There is also a world of transport technology which will change the way cities work. Smart Cities are somewhat beyo

39、nd the scope of this report, but will be referred to in several places. Finally, there are many unpretentious digital transformations underway focussed on the storage, analysis and visualisation of data. These data digitalisation activities will have a significant impact on the real estate industry,

40、 and the effect will be seen in all areas of PropTech application, including the use of buildings, the operation and management of buildings, and the capital markets. 1.3 PropTech waves Real estate is not known as an industry which readily embraces change. The nature of the asset class, which compri

41、ses large heterogeneous assets traded in a largely private market, is perhaps a good reason for this. Homes may be too important a part of a private portfolio to take any risks with the process whereby it is traded, held or valued. It may also be the case that there is an agency problem: the profess

42、ional advisors that dominate the transaction process clearly have an interest in protecting their income sources, so chartered surveyors, brokers and lawyers might all be expected to resist tech-driven innovations designed to disrupt their work. Nevertheless, the real estate industry has undergone t

43、wo periods of major technological change. In current times we are witnessing a battle for market share between traditional advisors and a discernible second wave of technology-based innovation. The first wave (PropTech 1.0) took place in the mid-1980s. This was all to do with data and computing powe

44、r. The invention of computing in the 1930s and 1940s and the subsequent 40 years of development made little or no impact on property markets. The key driver of change was the introduction of the personal computer in the late 1970s/early1980s. The Apple II and the twin floppy disc IBM PC XT (introduc

45、ed in 1983) both supported spreadsheet applications (VisiCalc and Supercalc) before Lotus 1-2-3 and, later, Excel became industry FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE INITIATIVE PROPTECH 2020 WWW.SBS.OXFORD.EDU/FORE 8 standard platforms for the organisation and analysis of data. Alongside the development of the pe

46、rsonal computer (PC), the mainframe computer was becoming more and more efficient and affordable. In the mid-1980s this started to have an impact on property practice. These waves are likely to correspond to movements in the global financial markets. Frick (2019) describes how a recession encourages

47、 the adoption of new technologies. Employers are able to recruit workers with better computer-related skills due to increased unemployment; technology brings transparency into how and where businesses are affected by turmoil; and the opportunity cost of investing in new technologies reduces as the r

48、eturns from funding regular operations are reduced. The same is suggested by Block and Aarons (2019: 51) who note that the 2008 downturn in global markets led to a boost in PropTech due to the need for real estate companies to find a competitive advantage and maximise savings. The growth of indirect private fund vehicles with different styles, debt and asset-backed securitisation, the arrival of REITs, the growth of a d