1、2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching and Learning Edition 1 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report Teaching and Learning Edition 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching and Learning Edition 2 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report Teaching and Learning Edition Thank You to Our Horizon Report Sponsors Platinum Partne

2、r Platinum Partner Malcolm Brown, Mark McCormack, Jamie Reeves, D. Christopher Brooks, and Susan Grajek, with Bryan Alexander, Maha Bali, Stephanie Bulger, Shawna Dark, Nicole Engelbert, Kevin Gannon, Adrienne Gauthier, David Gibson, Rob Gibson, Brigitte Lundin, George Veletsianos, and Nicole Weber,

3、 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report, Teaching and Learning Edition (Louisville, CO: EDUCAUSE, 2020). 2020 EDUCAUSE This report is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. ISBN: 978-1-933046-03-7 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report is a trademark of EDUCAU

4、SE. Learn More Read additional materials on the 2020 Horizon Project research hub, https:/www.educause.edu/horizon-report-2020 EDUCAUSE is a higher education technology association and the largest community of IT leaders and professionals committed to advancing higher education. Technology, IT roles

5、 and responsibilities, and higher education are dynamically changing. Formed in 1998, EDUCAUSE supports those who lead, manage, and use information technology to anticipate and adapt to these changes, advancing strategic IT decision-making at every level within higher education. EDUCAUSE is a global

6、 nonprofit organization whose members include US and international higher education institutions, corporations, not-for-profit organizations, and K12 institutions. With a community of more than 100,000 individuals at member organizations located around the world, EDUCAUSE encourages diversity in per

7、spective, opinion, and representation. For more information, please visit educause.edu. 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching and Learning Edition 3 Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Executive Summary. . . . . . . .

8、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Trends: Scanning the Horizon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Social Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Technological Trends . .

9、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Economic Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Higher Education Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Po

10、litical Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Emerging Technologies it has been attributed to many people, from Arthur C. Clarke to Bill Gates, but its actual origin remains elusive. See this page from Quote Investigator (website), J

11、anuary 3, 2019. 3 For two opinions about the value of the Horizon Reports predictions, see Audrey Watters, “The 100 Worst Ed-Tech Debacles of the Decade,” Hack Education (blog), December 31, 2019, and Stephen Downes, “Horizon Report Preview 2019,” Stephen Downes (website), February 28, 2019. In assu

12、ming ownership of the Horizon Report, EDUCAUSE recognized the challenges of anticipating the future. We have, in this first major revision of the reports methodology, structure, and content, striven to break the mold of the classic Horizon Report without losing its essential purpose. This recasting

13、of the report recognizes that our thoughts about the future are rooted in the present and how it has changed from the past. The report begins with a scan of our current environment to identify the major trends that are shaping global higher education and teaching and learning. The Horizon Expert Pan

14、el named fifteen social, technological, economic, higher education, and political trends that signal departures from the past, that are influencing the present, and that will almost certainly help shape the future. For educational technologies, the report moves away from the time-to-adoption structu

15、re, which implied a prediction precision that the project was unable to achieve. In its place, the new report offers evidence, data, and scenarios. The report includes evidence for the trends, as well as panelists quantitative ratings of factors that often temper actual adoption of emerging technolo

16、gies and practices in higher education. These factors include impact on learning outcomes, level of risk in adoption, faculty receptiveness, issues of equity and inclusion, and required level of spending. Anticipating the future is necessary. Todays decisions are always bets on what we think the fut

17、ure will be. The Horizon Report was never meant to be a fun, “cool” list of hyped technologies for the field to debate and debunk. It is meant to inform decision makers and help learners, instructors, and leaders think more deeply about the educational technology choices they are making and their re

18、asons for doing so. And so, our final choice in reimagining the Horizon Report was to provide more-helpful, richer resources to assist the community in considering choices and formulating action plans. In addition to identifying trends and emerging technologies and practices, we offer scenarios for

19、how the future could play out. Will higher education grow in size and importance? Will higher education as we know it fade away or even collapse entirely? Will it remain essentially the same, neither expanding nor contracting? Or will it transform and become almost unrecognizable from todays model o

20、f higher education? No one can say, but we have tried to paint those four scenarios to help readers think more expansively about the future of their institutions and our industry so that they can plan and act more thoughtfully today. Finally, the report includes a set of short essays, written from d

21、ifferent regional and institutional perspectives, on the implications of the reports findings. We hope the 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report will enable you to learn, plan, and act. In the months after its release, community members will no doubt talk and write about how it differs from the Horizon Repor

22、t in previous years. While that lens on the past is interesting, we care more about looking ahead: how does the 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report help you today as you think about what tomorrow will bring? Let us know. We will be listening. And learning from you. 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching a

23、nd Learning Edition 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY W ith the 2020 Horizon Report, we have sought to retain the elements of the report that higher education professionals and leaders have come to value over many yearsits focus on the trends, technologies, and practices shaping the future of teaching and learnin

24、g, based on a methodology that grounds the findings in the perspectives and expertise of a panel of leaders in higher education. We have also sought to innovate and improve upon the report this year, moving our focus away from forecasts for adoption and toward more evocative portraits of possible fu

25、tures. As in past reports, we solicited the panels input on the major trends shaping higher education, and this year we also opened up space to hear more directly from our panelists about their reflections on the implications of this research for the future of higher education in their particular co

26、ntexts. Trends Higher education doesnt exist in a vacuum, and it is always and everywhere shaping and being shaped by larger macro trends unfolding in the world surrounding it. We asked the Horizon panelists to provide input on the macro trends they believe are going to shape the future of postsecon

27、dary teaching and learning and to provide observable evidence for those trends. To ensure an expansive view of trends outside the walls of higher education, panelists provided input across five trend categories: social, technological, economic, higher education, and political. After several rounds o

28、f voting, the panelists selected the following trends as the most important: Social Well-Being and Mental Health Demographic Changes Equity and Fair Practices Technological Artificial Intelligence: Technology Implications Next-Generation Digital Learning Environment (NGDLE) Analytics and Privacy Que

29、stions Economic Cost of Higher Education Future of Work and Skills Climate Change Higher Education Changes in Student Population Alternative Pathways to Education Online Education Political Decrease in Higher Education Funding Value of Higher Education Political Polarization Emerging Technologies an

30、d Practices Horizon panelists were asked to describe those emerging technologies and practices they believe will have a significant impact on the future of postsecondary teaching and learning, with a focus on those that are new or for which there appear to be substantial new developments. After seve

31、ral rounds of voting, the following six items rose to the top of a list that initially consisted of 130 technologies and practices: Adaptive Learning Technologies AI/Machine Learning Education Applications Analytics for Student Success Elevation of Instructional Design, Learning Engineering, and UX

32、Design in Pedagogy Open Educational Resources XR (AR/VR/MR/Haptic) Technologies Having identified the most important technologies and practices, panelists were then asked to reflect on the impacts those technologies and practices would likely have at the institution. We asked panelists to consider t

33、hose impacts along several dimensions that are of growing importance in higher education: equity and inclusion, learning outcomes, risks, faculty receptiveness, and cost. We also asked panelists to consider whether new literacies might be required by these six technologies and practices. Panelists s

34、ee considerable potential for some of these technologies to positively impact student learning and to provide needed support for equity and inclusion. Some technologies and practices on the list are seen as more expensive and riskier than others, and across all six, panelists caution that faculty mi

35、ght not be especially receptive, at least initially. 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching and Learning Edition 6 Scenarios While we may not be able to use the findings in this report to accurately predict a single future, we can begin to gather and arrange the information we have into logical pat

36、terns that can help us envision a number of scenarios for what the future might look like. In this report we attempt to paint brief but evocative portraits of four possible future scenarios for postsecondary teaching and learning: Growth: The next decade of higher education is one characterized by s

37、ignificant progress, with growth coming from increases in adult and remote learners, expansion of online courses and curricula, and professional certification and microcredentialing programs. Constraint: Efficiency and sustainability are the guiding social values in this future of higher education,

38、with learners carving out faster and more efficient pathways to completion and institutions harnessing the power of data and analytics for greater precision in designing the learner experience and protecting the institutions return on investment. Collapse: Higher education as weve known it has large

39、ly been shuttered, primarily due to economic reasons (rising costs, declining funding), replaced by a new system of education that prioritizes the needs of the job market and the acquisition of discrete skills over programs and departments unable to provide a return on investment. Transformation: Se

40、veral dramatic transformations occur in higher education over the next decade, brought about primarily by climate change and advances in digital technology. Learners enjoy more flexible matriculation and degree personalization options, while institutions explore cooperative network models and seek w

41、ays to reduce the cost of education. Implications Essays In light of the trends and future scenarios presented throughout this report, what can we say about the implications for institutions now and about what institutions can begin to do today to start preparing for these possible futures? For this

42、 new section added to the Horizon Report, we asked nine Horizon panelists to reflect on the reports findings and offer their thoughts on the most important implications for their own higher education context. The nine perspectives represented in these essays illustrate the ways in which issues overl

43、ap, diverge, and intersect in different parts of the world and at institutions of different sizes and types. Some contributors see technologies such as AI and XR as important in addressing the challenges they experience. Others see in the Horizon findings opportunities to approach issues related to

44、access, equity, and cost for their student populations. Still others focused their thinking on the changing demographics of students and the evolution of jobs and skills in the workplace. All share an optimism that the tools and practices identified in the report can produce meaningful and valuable

45、results for higher education institutions and students. Though not intended to cover all perspectives, these essays can help catalyze thinking and conversations about the ways in which higher education is changing, the opportunities and risks it faces, and the ways in which technology and innovative

46、 thinking can help prepare institutions for the future. 2020 EDUCAUSE Horizon Report | Teaching and Learning Edition 7 What can we say about the world in which teaching and learning technologies and practices are taking shape, as well as about the world that institutions, instructors, and learners a

47、re going to inhabit in the future? TRENDS: SCANNING THE HORIZON Social Well-Being and Mental Health Demographic Changes Equity and Fair Practices Technological Artificial Intelligence: Technology Implications Next-Generation Digital Learning Environment Analytics and Privacy Questions Economic Cost

48、of Higher Education Future of Work and Skills Climate Change Higher Education Changes in Student Population Alternative Pathways to Education Online Education Political Decrease in Higher Education Funding Value of Higher Education Political Polarization F or the 2020 Horizon Report, we begin with a

49、 focus on bigger- picture developments around and within higher education. What can we say about the world in which teaching and learning technologies and practices are taking shape, as well as about the world that institutions, instructors, and learners are going to inhabit in the future? Teaching and learning doesnt take place in a vacuum, after all, and understanding the trajectories of such large-scale trends can only help decision makers and professionals build more responsive and sustainable environments an