1、March 30, 2020 Jose Perez-Gorozpe Tatiana Lysenko Elijah Oliveros-Rosen Sudeep Kesh Emerging Markets Empty Streets And Rising Risks Contents Key Takeaways Three Simultaneous Shocks Credit Conditions Key Risks Rating Bias Economic Conditions EM APAC EM EMEA LatAm Financial Conditions Emerging Markets

2、 Heat Map Corporate Sector Sensitivity 2 S Chart 2 WITS World Bank The Sharp Decline In Commodities Will Have Mixed Effects Jose Perez-Gorozpe, Mexico City, +52-55-5081-4442, jose.perez- -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Thailand India South Africa Chile Philippines Poland China Turkey Mexico I

3、ndonesia Argentina Brazil Malaysia Colombia Russia Saudi Arabia Energy Trade Balance % of GDP 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 BRENTCOPPERIRON OREGOLD Financial Conditions | Volatile And Declining Capital Flows 8 Outlook. Significant questions about the depth and breadth of COVID- on global economy

4、and supply chains caused extreme capital outflows from EMs to risk-free assets. Speed of outflows from EMs is without precedents. Risks. Adverse investor sentiment towards EMs is pressuring currencies and liquidity. Continued outflows could ultimately elevate refinancing risk and inflationary pressu

5、res. Many EMs have little space for maneuver. Credit. Extended shock to investor sentiment could result in heightened refinancing risk, especially for low rated issuers. Source: Bloomberg EM Capital Outflows Have Significantly Pressured Currencies Jose Perez-Gorozpe, Mexico City, +52-55-5081-4442, j

6、ose.perez- -30.0%-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0% Saudi Arabia Philippines Poland China Argentina India Malaysia Thailand Turkey Chile Indonesia Colombia South Africa Brazil Russia Mexico Exchange Rate % Change (Jan 1 - Mar 23) Goods Trade | Slump In Global Demand Is Hitting Trade 9 Trade disruptio

7、ns will be felt across EMs. The shock to demand, especially in the regions that are most affected by the virus-China, the U.S., and Europe-will take a heavy toll on EM exports. Trade exposure varies. Russia, Poland, and Turkey rely heavily on European demand for their exports. Malaysia, Chile, and T

8、hailand are highly exposed to China, meanwhile Mexico sends nearly 30% of GDP worth in exports to the U.S. Imports also matter. Several EMs also rely on imported inputs from areas heavily affected by COVID-19, causing supply-chain disruptions. Source: IMF DOTS, S Data as of March 20, 2020 Negative O

9、utlook Bias On The Rise, Heightened Stress Will Pressure Ratings 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Negative Bias (%)Positive Bias (%) Economic Conditions APAC EM Economics | Severe Economic Impact 13 Growth. Discretionary consumption will be battered due to virus prevention efforts. Lockdown

10、s across the world mean that tourism and related spending will collapse. We forecast growth of 3.5% for EM APAC in 2020, the lowest since 1998. Policy. There has been targeted fiscal stimulus that will cushion the blow to growth. We expect further monetary easing; however, tighter external financial

11、 conditions constrain room for policy measures. Risks. Further spread of the virus is the chief risk that could lead to sharp welfare and economic losses. Healthcare infrastructure in parts of the region remains patchy. Source: S The Timing Of A Restart Remains Uncertain, March 27 COVID-19: Coronavi

12、rus-Related Public Rating Actions On Corporations And Sovereigns To Date, March 27 OVID-19: The Steepening Cost To The Eurozone And U.K. Economies, March 26, 2020 Coronavirus Impact: Key Takeaways From Our Articles, March 26 Global Macroeconomic Update, March 24: A Massive Hit To World Economic Grow

13、th, March 24, 2020 Credit FAQ: Assessing The Coronavirus-Related Damage To The Global Economy And Credit Quality, March 24, 2020 LatAm Corporate Outlook 2020: COVID-19: Testing Latin Americas Defenses, March 23 Asia-Pacific Economic Forecasts: The Cost Of Coronavirus Is Now US$620 Billion, March 22,

14、 2020 COVID-19 Credit Update: The Sudden Economic Stop Will Bring Intense Credit Pressure, March 17 Stress Scenario: The Sovereigns Most Vulnerable To A COVID-19-Related Slowdown In Tourism, March 17 COVID-19 Macroeconomic Update: The Global Recession Is Here And Now, March 17 Coronavirus-Related Pu

15、blic Rating Actions On Non-Financial Corporations To Date, March 18 Asia-Pacific Recession Guaranteed, March 17 The European Central Bank Rises To The Challenge As Eurozone Sovereign Borrowing Soars In Response To COVID-19, March 19 Asia-Pacific Credits Wobble As COVID-19 Goes Global, March 9 COVID-

16、19, Risks Of Global Recession Spike Business Services Downgrade Tilt, March 19 28 EconomicsGlobalPaul F Gruenwald, New York, +1-212-438-1710, Asia-PacificShaun Roache, Singapore, +65-6597-6137, Emerging MarketsTatiana Lysenko, Paris, +33-1-4420-6748, Europe, Middle-East & AfricaSylvain Broyer, Frank

17、furt, +49-69-33-999-156, Latin AmericaElijah Oliveros-Rosen, New York, +1-212-438-2228, North AmericaBeth Ann Bovino, New York, +1-212-438-1652, ResearchGlobalAlexandra Dimitrijevic, London, +44-20-7176-3128, Asia-PacificTerence Chan, Melbourne, +61-3-9631-2174, Credit Market ResearchSudeep Kesh, Ne

18、w York, +1-212-438-7982, Digital Research StrategyGareth Williams, London, +44-20-7176-7226, Emerging MarketsJose Perez-Gorozpe, Mexico City, +52-55-5081-4442, jose.perez- Europe, Middle-East & AfricaPaul Watters, London, +44-20-7176-3542, North AmericaDavid Tesher, New York, +1-212-438-2618, Rating

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