1、Nets Innovation Hub Payments Outlook The future isnt what it used to be Content Seamless Access to Funds Introduction to Outlook 2020 Identified Trends Themes for 2020 Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 About . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61 Get in Touch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Fluid CommerceDecentralized Trust Glocal Commerce Responsible Consumerism Simultaneous Bundling and Unbundling Customized Privacy Quantified Self Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Insight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Looking Ahead . . . . . . . . . . . .

4、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Consumer, Technology, Market, Regulation . . . . . . . .5 Radar Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Themes Overview . . . .

5、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 2020 Themes in 20 Seconds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Insight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Perspectives .

6、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Insight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Perspectives

7、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43 Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Insight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52 Perspectiv

8、es . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54 Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 Insight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Perspectiv

9、es . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 Insight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 Perspecti

10、ves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 Insight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Perspecti

11、ves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Insight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Perspecti

12、ves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 1 26 8 7 5 3 4 Payments Outlook 2020 3 Introduction to Outlook 2020 To identify new themes relevant to merchants and the payment industry, we reviewed more than

13、70 reports from leading industry researchers and consulted more than 300 online sources. Furthermore, we interviewed experts within the Nets Group as well as top Looking AheadMethodology Predicting the future is an impossible task. However, following a systematic approach to spot trends goes a long

14、way The digital transformation is upon us, and it is picking up the pace. Although it may not seem so rapid in real-time, the chang- es are all around us. That is because we are expe riencing the changes on a day- to-day basis with minor updates, new fea- tures, and new smart devices. At least that

15、is how it feels to consumers. They tend to gradually ease into the changes be- cause it is essentially serving their needs. It is the merchants, not the consumers, who will have a hard time keeping up with demand, trying to foresee the future. This is where Nets Innovation Hub comes into the picture

16、. We are on a mission to help mer- chants deliver a consumer experience with frictionless payments. In order to stay ahead of the curve, we want to look into the future, and see if we can identify trends. Before we get carried away let us make it absolutely clear: predicting the future is an impossi

17、ble task. However, following a systematic ap- proach to spot trends goes a long way. We have identified eight themes that are natu- rally interlinked and likely to pave the way for new payment methods. Desirability (consumers) Viability (business) Goal Feasibility (tech) industry experts. From all t

18、hose sources we identified 64 trends that could potentially impact merchants and the payment industry. Payments Outlook 2020 4 Introduction to Outlook 2020 Consumer A1Digital detox A2Sharing economy A3Customization A4Data minimalism A5Circular economy A6Health tracking A7Sustainable consumerism A8Su

19、b-sub cultures Technology B1Speech recognition B2Emotional recognition B3Computer vision B4AI in BI B5AI hardware B6Real time personal analytics B7Brain-computer interfaces B8Biometrics B9Crypto wallets B10Smart contracts B11Edge computing B12Serverless computing B13Quantum computing B14Neuromorphic

20、 computing B15Holographic and haptic interfaces B16AR/VR B17Wearables B18Sensors and intelligent devices B19Connected homes B20Autonomous mobility B21Micro Consumer, Technology, Market or Regulation . Co ns u m er T ec hn ol og y M ar ke t R eg ul at io n Payment Relevance Years to ImpactYears to Im

21、pact Payment Relevance LOWLOWHIGH FEWFEWMANYMANY HIGH B20 B12 B18 B5 B19 B11 B2 B9 B6 B8 B1 B3 B7 B14 B10 B24 B21 B4 B16 B22 B17 B23 B15 B13 C4 C9 C7 C8 C6 C3 C5 C12 C1 C2 C10 C11 D8 D11 D10 D1 D2 D12 D14 D9 D3 D4 D5 D16 D17 D7 D19 D13 D15 D6 D18 A4 A1 A8 A3 A2 A5 A7 A6 Radar Framework In order to u

22、nderstand these trends, we have developed a framework inspired by the three dimensions of design thinking. As regulatory requirements are highly impor- tant (and impactful) to the financial sector, in particular to the payment indu stry, we have added regulatory as a fourth dimension. Desirability:

23、Consumers Feasibility: Technology Viability: Market Compliance: Regulation Each trend is placed in one of the four dimensions: Technology, Consumer, Market or Regulatory. Furthermore each trend is measured with respect to relevance to pay- ment (x-axis), years to materialize (y-axis), and the bubble

24、 (size) is the perceived impact, in relative terms of the particular trend im- pact of the particular trend. The closer a bub- ble comes to the center the more relevant it is. Read more about the Identified Trends Payments Outlook 2020 6 Introduction to Outlook 2020 New seamless ways for consumers t

25、o access funds will craft new personalized experiences. These will allow merchants to establish new touchpoints and deliver value propositions around consumer identifica- tion. The touchpoints will further boost the development of new kinds of merchant-con- sumer interactions. Commerce will become i

26、ncreasingly fluid: online and in-store will blend together and increase customer value. Consumers will lead their path to purchase, and expect flawless interactions between channels. Data collection and profiling will be fun- damental to deliver seamless interactions. Hence, merchants will need to a

27、ddress con- sumer rights and the request for privacy, which will have to be fully customizable. This does not mean that companies will nec- essarily have a hard time collecting data, but rather that they will have to be able to pro- vide value in exchange for data. In fact, the average consumers wil

28、lingness to share personal data is increasing. This phenome- non is demonstrated by the growing trend of measuring every aspect of ones life, what we call “quantified self”. Lots of consumer data will be generated, and its distribution across different platforms together with the proliferation of th

29、e so called “API economy” will lead to new waves of disruption through simultaneous bundling and unbundling cycles. On the flip side, data dispersion and the consequent demand for privacy, con- trol and trackability, will continue to drive investments towards the exploration of blockchain technologi

30、es and systems allow- ing for decentralized trust by design. At a macro-level, consumers awareness of social and environmental issues will con- tinue to increase. Companies need to ad- dress the growing demand for responsible consumerism in order to remain relevant. At the same time, the continuous

31、search for authenticity and differentiation will lead con- sumers to shop glocally, meaning shopping local products from all corners of the world. 2020 Themes in 20 SecondsThemes Overview Based upon the Outlook Radar we conducted several workshops with industry and inno- vation experts - internal an

32、d external - turn- ing trends into themes. Many discussions and combinations of trends were proposed, explored, analyzed and combined. At the end, consensus was reached upon the following themes for the Payments Outlook 2020. Themes for 2020 Seamless Access to Funds Fluid Commerce Customized Privacy

33、 Quantified Self Simultaneous Bundling an Unbundling Decentralized Trust Responsible Consumerism Glocal Commerce On the following pages we will describe each theme, rationalize why we think it is impor- tant, and last but not least, we will make predictions for the future with respect to each theme.

34、 Payments Outlook 2020 7 7 Themes for 2020 Buckle-up and enjoy the ride! Payments Outlook 2020 Its simply going to be complex Seamless Access to Funds1 Payments Outlook 2020 9 9 Seamless Access to Funds Radar: Relevant Trends With regulatory changes and technological developments, we have seen an en

35、ormous transformation in how consumers access and transfer their funds, as well as the very nature of these funds . This development crafts new innovation platforms, that are opening up for new opportunities but also bringing new levels of complexity for merchants . Consumer: Customization, Digital

36、Detox, Sharing Economy Technology: Biometrics, Crypto Wallets, Wearables Market: Mobile Wallets, TechFin Market Entry, Alternative Payment Methods, Personalization for the Masses, European Cashless Conversion Regulation: PDS2 in Effect, SCA Introduction, Pan-EU P2P Payments, eIDAS Read more about th

37、e Identified Trends Predictions New digital payment methods will continue to emerge enabled by mobile acceptance, cryptocurrencies, “loyalty currencies” as well as PSD2/Open Banking A Emerging payment methods will create new forms of personalization and value-adding opportunities at POS for merchant

38、s but also increase the complexity B In-store biometric payments specifically facial recognition are well positioned to become the next payment form factor, enhancing convenience, security and personalization C Payments Outlook 2020 10 1Seamless Access to Funds Insights How we pay for goods has chan

39、ged over time. A payment transaction involves three basic elements: the nature of funds, how you access them (i.e. the payment form factor) and the system connecting the two. Tradi- tionally these elements were all controlled centrally by governments, and linked to fiat currency. With the transition

40、 from analogue to digital, new parties were allowed into the payment value chain: private organizations got involved in introducing new form fac- tors as well as in creating new frameworks for connecting schemes. The very nature of funds has evolved as well, from fiat curren- cies only, to also incl

41、ude “loyalty currencies” and crypto currencies. Over the past few decades, payment form factors - the most evident element of change for consumers - have expanded from cash to payment cards, and now to mobile. This change was led by digital technologies, smartphone penetration, as well as consum- er

42、s demand for convenience and security . With NFC readily available at point-of- sales (POS) and in smartphones, digital wal- lets like Google and Apple Pay have quick- ly become the obvious evolutionary step. Looking at changes in the nature of funds, a major breakthrough was brought about by Bitcoi

43、n, which enabled the emergence of The very nature of funds has evolved as well, from fiat currencies only, to also include “loyalty currencies” and crypto currencies blockchain and other crypto currencies. At the same time, increased interaction oppor- tunities between merchants and consumers via di

44、gital channels allowed for a reinvention of “loyalty currencies”. Finally, considering the connecting protocols between funds and payment form factors, recent changes in the regulatory framework (i.e. PSD2), are leading to a progressive erosion of card transactions in favour of account-to-account pa

45、yments. The ever-changing landscape within the pay- ment ecosystem has brought about a great deal of complexity for merchants: different Info Digital wallet usage 55% 51% 1 PaymentsSource, n.d. use wallets due to higher convenience use digital wallets due to it being the fastest option Payments Outl

46、ook 2020 11 1Seamless Access to Funds payment methods have different character- istics and often different costs. Consumers are increasingly reluctant to shop where merchants impose certain payment meth- ods in favour of others. At the same time, this evolution has unlocked new opportunities for mer

47、chants to turn payments from a sim- ple collection task into a new channel around which to build personalization and loyalty . A prominent example of these new op- portunities is offered by mobile payments at POS. With the adoption of wallets expected to continue growing in coming years , merchants

48、now have the opportunity to leverage this trend and interact with the end user via e.g. a merchant app used at POS. With the increased digitization and wide- spread consumer adoption of mobile wal- lets, solutions like consumer reward pro- grammes, cash-back and loyalty-points will be much easier fo

49、r merchants to implement into their customer journey and purchase flow. This will enable merchants to identify and personalize a consumers shopping ex- perience before, during, and after payment, as well as blurring the line between online and in-store buying. On top of this, new fron- tiers of payment form factors, such as biom- etric identification, are currently being tested, and are likely to reach the market in the near future, furth