1、ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org POLICY, MARKET, AND TECHNOLOGY OVER 50 YEARS ASIAS JOURNEY TO PROSPERITY ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK ASIAS JOURNEY POLICY, MARKET, AND TECHNOLOGY OVER 50 YEARS TO PROSPERITY ASIAN DEVEL

2、OPMENT BANK Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 IGO license (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO) 2020 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2020. ISBN 978-92-9

3、261-978-7 (print), 978-92-9261-979-4 (electronic), 978-92-9261-980-0 (ebook) Publication Stock No. TCS190290 DOI: http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS190290 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (

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8、er of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, orifyouwish to obtain copyright permission for your intended u

9、se that does not fall within these terms, orfor permission to use the ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. ADB recognizes “China” as the Peoples Republic of China; “Hong Ko

10、ng” as Hong Kong, China; “Korea” and “South Korea” as the Republic of Korea; “Vietnam” as Viet Nam; “Russia” as the Russian Federation; and “Bombay” as Mumbai. Cover design by Anthony Victoria. CONTeNTS Foreword xiv Production Team xx Acknowledgments xxii Abbreviations xxiv Definitions xxvii ADB Reg

11、ional Members xxix 1 50 Years of AsianDevelopment 1 1.1 Asias rapid growth and poverty reduction 1 over the past halfcentury 1.2 What explains Asias economic success? 6 1.3 Is there an Asian Consensus? 9 1.4 A half century of multifaceted development 11 1.5 Asias remaining development agenda 25 2 Th

12、e Role of Markets, theState, and Institutions 29 2.1 Introduction 29 2.2 The role of markets and the state 31 2.3 Evolving development thinking and policy 35 on market versusstate 2.4 Importance of good governance and strong institutions 39 2.5 Japans postwar economic recovery and growth 42 2.6 Indu

13、strialization of Hong Kong, China; 47 the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China 2.7 Economic liberalization and openness in Southeast Asia 52 2.8 Building a socialist market economy in the 60 Peoples Republic ofChina 2.9 Toward market-led growth in India 67 2.10 Pursuing reforms in other So

14、uth Asian countries 72 2.11 Transition in Central Asia and Mongolia 77 2.12 Seizing opportunities in the Pacific 81 2.13 Looking ahead 83 iv|CONTeNTS 3 Dynamics of Structural Transformation 85 3.1 Introduction 85 3.2 Overview of Asias structural transformation 86 3.3 Critical contribution of agricul

15、ture 91 3.4 Industrialization as the path to high income 94 3.5 Large and growing imprint of services 100 3.6 Urbanization as a geographic transformation 108 3.7 Looking ahead 111 4 Modernizing Agriculture and Rural Development 113 4.1 Introduction 113 4.2 Asias food problems in the 1950s 117 4.3 La

16、nd reform: experiences and lessons 119 4.4 Green Revolution and efforts to sustain its momentum 124 4.5 Changing patterns of food consumption 134 and product diversification 4.6 Agricultural trade and food value chains 138 4.7 Expanding the rural nonfarm economy 142 4.8 Looking ahead 143 5 Technolog

17、ical Progress as Key Driver 147 5.1 Introduction 147 5.2 Measuring technologys contribution to growth 150 5.3 Asias technological progress 155 5.4 Modalities of technological progress 161 5.5 Country experiences on technology policies 171 5.6 Recent technological trends and developments 178 5.7 Look

18、ing ahead 182 6 Education, Health, andDemographic Change 185 6.1 Introduction 185 6.2 Rising educational attainment 187 6.3 Healthier populations 196 6.4 Changing demography 208 6.5 Demographic dividend and other impacts 217 6.6 Looking ahead 222 7 Investment, Savings, andFinance 225 7.1 Introductio

19、n 225 7.2 Asias rapid capital accumulation 226 CONTeNTS|v 7.3 Domestic savings provided the bulk 228 of investment financing 7.4 External financing complements domestic savings 239 7.5 Asias financial system 241 7.6 Looking ahead 251 8 Infrastructure Development 253 8.1 Introduction 253 8.2 Energy 2

20、55 8.3 Transport 272 8.4 Urban water supply 280 8.5 Telecommunications and information 286 and communication technology 8.6 Looking ahead 293 9 Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Openness 295 9.1 Introduction 295 9.2 Trends in Asias trade and foreign direct investment 298 9.3 Evolution of trade a

21、nd foreign direct investment 309 policies in Asia 9.4 Emergence of global value chains 315 9.5 Growing importance of services trade 319 9.6 Global and regional trade arrangements 321 9.7 Looking ahead 324 10 Pursuing Macroeconomic Stability 327 10.1 Introduction 327 10.2 Macroeconomic performance in

22、 the past 5 decades 328 10.3 The evolution of fiscal, monetary, 332 and exchange rate policies 10.4 Avoiding debt crises in the 1980s 340 10.5 The Asian financial crisis and responses 341 10.6 The global financial crisis and responses 345 10.7 Looking ahead 349 11 Poverty Reduction andIncome Distrib

23、ution 351 11.1 Introduction 351 11.2 Asias approach to poverty and inequality 353 11.3 Asias success in reducing poverty 358 11.4 Stable levels of inequality in the 1960s1980s 364 vi|CONTeNTS 11.5 Rising income inequality since the 1990s 368 11.6 Looking ahead 375 12 Gender and Development 377 12.1

24、Introduction 377 12.2 Improvements in womens education 379 12.3 Achievements in womens health 384 12.4 Womens labor force and market participation 388 12.5 Womens status in the household and in public life 398 12.6 Looking ahead 407 13 Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change 411 13.1 Introdu

25、ction 411 13.2 Increased environmental pressure 413 13.3 Climate change 425 13.4 Asian efforts to address environmental 428 and climate challenges 13.5 Engagement in international agreements 436 and roles ofdevelopment partners 13.6 Green industry contribution to environmental solutions 439 13.7 Loo

26、king ahead 440 14 The Role of Bilateral andMultilateral Development Finance 443 14.1 Introduction 443 14.2 Bilateral official development assistance flows 446 14.3 Multilateral development banks 447 14.4 Experiences of recipient countries 452 14.5 Experiences of Asian official development 461 assist

27、ance providers 14.6 Looking ahead 466 15 Strengthening RegionalCooperation andIntegration in Asia 469 15.1 Introduction 469 15.2 Why regional cooperation and integration? 470 15.3 Early movers of regional cooperation and integration 472 in East Asia and Southeast Asia 15.4 Regional cooperation and i

28、ntegration in other subregions 476 15.5 ADB and its role in regional cooperation and integration 479 15.6 Looking ahead 479 CONTeNTS|vii Appendixes 483 1 Total Population (Midyear) 484 2 Gross Domestic Product 486 3 Gross Domestic Product Growth Rates 490 4 Gross Domestic Product Per Capita 492 5 Se

29、ctor Shares in Output 494 6 Sector Shares in Employment 497 7 Exports of Goods and Services 500 8 Imports of Goods and Services 502 9 Current Account Balance 504 10 General Government Net Lending/Borrowing 506 11 Gross Domestic Savings 508 12 Gross Capital Formation 510 13 Public Spending on Educati

30、on 512 14 Public Spending on Health 514 15 Poverty Rate 516 16 Net Enrollment Rate, Primary, Both Sexes 518 17 Gross Enrollment Ratio, Secondary, Both Sexes 520 18 Gross Enrollment Ratio, Tertiary, Both Sexes 522 19 Life Expectancy at Birth 524 20 Under-Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) 526 References 529

31、Index 557 TABleS, FIGUReS, AND BOxeS Tables 1.1 Average Annual Per Capita GDP Growth 2 1.2 GDP Per Capita 3 1.3 Development Indicators 6 2.1 Shares of State-Owned Enterprises in the Industry Sector, 65 Peoples Republic of China, 19952017 2.2 Delicensing and Trade Liberalization in India, 19801997 71

32、 2.3 Average Annual Per Capita GDP Growth, Central Asia 79 and Mongolia, 19912018 3.1 Output and Employment Shares by Sector, 19702018 89 4.1 Macroeconomic Indicators in Agriculture, 115 Selected Economies, 19702018 5.1 Top 10 Patent Grantees in the United States 159 5.2 Industrial Robots 160 6.1 Sc

33、hool Enrollment Rates, 19702018 189 6.2 Years of Compulsory Education, Developing Asia, 2018 193 6.3 Government Expenditures on Education, 19702018 195 6.4 Life Expectancy at Birth, 19602018 197 6.5 Under-Five and Maternal Mortality, 19602018 199 6.6 Prevalence of Wasting and Stunting 200 6.7 Immuni

34、zation Coverage by Antigen, 1980, 2000, 202 and 2017 6.8 Health Expenditures by Subregion, 2000, 2010, 206 and 2016 6.9 Hospital Beds and Physicians by Region, 1960, 1970, 207 1990, and 2016 6.10 Population and Annual Population Growth Rate, 209 19602018 6.11 Fertility Rate, 19602018 211 6.12 Estima

35、tes of Demographic Dividends, 19602018 219 7.1 Stock and Growth of Physical Capital, 1960, 1990, 227 and 2017 7.2 Gross Domestic Savings and SavingsInvestment Gaps, 230 19602018 TABleS, FIGUReS, AND BOxeS|ix 7.3 Measures of Financial Sector Development, 19902017 247 8.1 Primary Energy Consumption an

36、d CO2 Emissions 258 in Selected Economies, 1965 and 2018 8.2 Final Energy Consumption by Sector in 260 Selected Economies, 1973 and 2017 8.3 Electricity Generation by Source in Selected Economies, 262 1971 and 2018 9.1 Top Global Investors 307 9.2 Top Manufacturing Sectors of Foreign Affiliates 319

37、Engaging in Trade in Asia, 2015 10.1 Currency Stabilization Support Programs 344 during the Asian Financial Crisis 11.1 Poverty Reduction in Developing Asia, 361 $1.90 per Day International Poverty Line, 19812015 11.2 Asias Income Inequality in the Global Context, 2015 373 12.1 Mean Years of Complet

38、ed Schooling, 380 Population Aged 2529, by Gender 12.2 Life Expectancy at Birth 385 13.1 Rural Population Residing on Degrading Agricultural 417 Land by Region, 2010 13.2 Proportion of Wastewater Receiving Treatment, 419 Selected Economies, Developing Asia, 2011 13.3 Water and Air Quality Standards,

39、 and Establishment 432 of Environmental Ministries in Developing Asia Figures 1.1 Global GDP Shares, 1960 and 2018 4 2.1 Government Effectiveness Score and Per Capita GDP 40 in 2011, Developing Asia 3.1 Output and Employment Shares by Sector 88 against Per Capita GDP, 19702018 3.2 Agricultural Land

40、and Labor Productivity, 93 Selected Asian Economies, 19802015 3.3 Manufacturing Output and Employment Shares, 96 19702018 3.4 Value-Added of Skill- and Technology-Intensive 103 Services and Other Services in Selected Asian and Advanced Economies 3.5 International Tourist Arrivals, 19952018 106 x|TAB

41、leS, FIGUReS, AND BOxeS 3.6 International Tourism Indicators for 107 Selected Asian Economies 3.7 Urban Population, 19702020 109 3.8 Urbanization Rate and GDP, 2017 110 4.1 Impacts of Modern Variety Rice Adoption, 129 Selected Asian Economies, 19612016 4.2 Food Consumption Patterns, Developing Asia,

42、 134 19612013 4.3 Changing Composition of Food Consumption 136 in Calories, Developing Asia, 1983 and 2013 4.4 Shares of Agriculture Sector Gross Production Value, Developing Asia, 19711974 and 20102014 137 4.5 International Trade of Rice, Fruits, and Vegetables, 140 Selected Economies, 19742016 5.1

43、 Contribution of Factors of Production to 152 GDP Growth, Asia 5.2 Contributions to Growth in the World, 19602014 155 5.3 The Flying Geese Pattern of Asian Exports 157 5.4 Research and Development Expenditure, 19812016 167 5.5 Adoption and Innovation of Technologies in Japan, 172 19561988 5.6 Diffus

44、ion Speed of Technologies 179 6.1 Mean Years of Schooling, for Population 188 Aged 2024 Years, 1960 and 2010 6.2 Average Science and Mathematics Test Scores 191 6.3 Reduction in Communicable, Maternal, 201 Neonatal, and Nutritional Deaths, 19902017 6.4 Access to Piped Water and Open Defecation Rates

45、, 203 2000 and Latest Year 6.5 Average Annual Population Growth, 210 Developing Asia, 19502020 6.6 Total Population and Population by Age, 210 Developing Asia, 19502018 6.7 Fertility and Life Expectancy in Asia 215 and the Pacific, 2018 6.8 Stock of Asia and the Pacifics Outward Migration, 216 19902

46、017 7.1 Gross Domestic Savings and Components, 233 Selected Asian Economies, 19902017 TABleS, FIGUReS, AND BOxeS|xi 7.2 Net Capital Inflows by Nonresidents 240 to Developing Asia, 19702017 7.3 Net Capital Inflows by Nonresidents 242 to Developing Asia by Subregion, 1970s2010s 7.4 Outstanding Domesti

47、c Debt Securities, 248 Selected Asian Economies, 19902017 7.5 Domestic Savings, Pensions, and Insurance Assets, 2017 249 8.1 Electricity Generation Per Capita 256 in Selected Economies, 1971 and 2018 8.2 Transport Infrastructure Stock, 1965 and 2014 273 8.3 Vehicle Registration, Selected Asian Econo

48、mies 274 8.4 High-Speed Rail Activity in Key Regions, 20002016 277 8.5 Proportion of Population with Access to Safely Managed 281 Piped and Non-Piped Water in Selected Asian Economies 8.6 Fixed Telephone Subscriptions per 100 Inhabitants 288 8.7 Mobile Telephone Subscriptions per 100 Inhabitants 289

49、 8.8 Internet Users 292 9.1 Exports of Goods and Services 299 9.2 Destination of Asias Merchandise Exports 300 9.3 Asias Top Merchandise Exports 301 9.4 Export Growth and Economic Growth, 19602017 302 9.5 Asias Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Outflows 304 9.6 Top 10 Asian Foreign Direct Investment Recipients 305 9.7 Top Global Investors into Asia 306 9.8 Share of Asias Intermediate Goods Trade 316 9.9 Growth in Asias Exports of Goods, Services, 320 and Travel, 20052017 9.10 Asias World Trade Organization Accessions 322 9.11 Content of Free Trade Agreement