1、ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK SEPTEMBER 2020 NAVIGATING COVID-19 IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC EDITED BY BAMBANG SUSANTONO, YASUYUKI SAWADA, AND CYN-YOUNG PARK ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK SEPTEMBER 2020 NAVIGATING COVID-19 IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC EDITED BY BAMBANG SUSANTONO, YASUYUKI SAWADA, AND CYN-YOUNG PARK Creati

2、ve Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) 2020 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2020. ISBN 978-92-9262-355-5 (print); 978-92-9262-356-2 (electroni

3、c); 978-92-9262-357-9 (ebook) Publication Stock No. TCS200247-2 DOI: http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS200 247-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the gover

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9、permission to use theADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. ADB recognizes “China” as the Peoples Republic of China, and “Korea” as the Republic of Korea. All photos by ADB u

10、nless otherwise indicated. Cover design by Achilleus Coronel. Economic Impact and Policy Response iii Tables and Figures vi About the Editors viii Authors xi Acknowledgments xvi Abbreviations xviii Introduction 1 1. Economic Impact and Policy Response 17 The COVID-19 Economic Impact 19 COVID-19, Tec

11、hnology, and Polarizing Jobs 21 COVID-19 Impact on International Migration, Remittances, 32 and Recipient Households in Developing Asia COVID-19 and SARS: An Epidemiological 37 and Economic Comparison Key Responses to COVID-19 by Economies in Asia 42 and the Pacific: An Update from the ADB COVID-19

12、Policy Database 2. Tackling the Financial Fallout 49 COVID-19 Exposes Asian Banks Vulnerability 51 to United States Dollars Funding How Can Asia Avoid Fallout if COVID-19 Triggers 58 a Debt Crunch? Pandemic Highlights the Need to Manage Asias Debt Problem 63 Reform State-Owned Enterprises to Avoid 6

13、7 a COVID-19 Debt and Investment Crisis Contents Navigating COVID-19 in Asia and the Pacific ivContents 3. Supporting Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises 71 Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Policy 73 Measures for COVID-19 The COVID-19 Impact on Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized 78 Ent

14、erprises: Evidence from Rapid Surveys in Indonesia, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, the Philippines, and Thailand Three Ways to Support Businesses 88 and Their Workers During a Pandemic Five Ways Banks Can Help Asias Smallest Businesses 91 Survive COVID-19 Small Business Solutions for Pandemic

15、Challenges 94 4. Mitigating the Impact on the Poor and Vulnerable 97 Mind the Gap in Combating COVID-19 99 To Survive the Pandemic, Indonesias Urban Poor 102 Need Economic Support and Basic Services We Need Better Social Protection to Safeguard the Poor 105 from COVID-19 How to Protect Asias Rapidly

16、 Aging Population from COVID-19 109 Helping Women and Girls Survive COVID-19 and its Aftermath 113 The Informal Sector Needs Financial Support 117 Strings Attached: Financial Education Is Needed 120 to Judge Pandemic Assistance 5. Ensuring Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture 123 COVID-19 Highl

17、ights the Need for Safe, Nutritious, 125 and Affordable Food Keeping Asia and the Pacific Fed during the Pandemic 129 How COVID-19 Could Accelerate the Digitization 136 of the Food Supply Chain 6. Building Resilient Trade and Supply Chains 139 Stringency of Containment Measures: Spillovers and 141 S

18、ectoral Effects through Trade and Production Linkages Even with Borders Closing, We Need to Keep Trade Flowing 148 The Case for Regional Cooperation in Trade 152 and Investment Finance for Asia During COVID-19, Countries Need to Work Together 159 to Ensure the Supply of Protective Equipment Economic

19、 Impact and Policy Response v New ADB Tool Offers Road Map to Unblock Supplies 163 of Life-Saving Products 7. Accelerating Digital Transformation 167 COVID-19: Theres an App for That 169 The Global Economy Will Emerge Stronger 173 if COVID-19 Drives Digitization Will the Pandemic Speed Up Workplace

20、Automation? 176 Blending Education and Technology to Help Schools 179 through the Pandemic COVID-19 Has Created Digital Opportunities in the Pacific 182 8. Rebooting Asia after COVID-19 187 Rebooting the Economy during COVID-19 189 Two Ways to Help Revive Tourism in Asia and the Pacific 192 Managing

21、 PublicPrivate Partnerships 198 for a Post-Pandemic Recovery Asia and the Pacific Can Overcome COVID-19 201 by Working Together Asia Should Lead the Way in Producing a COVID-19 Vaccine 204 9. Building Back Better Together 209 Building Back Better, Differently, and Together in Asia 211 and the Pacifi

22、c Strengthening Disaster Resilience 215 Quality Must Prevail in Post-Pandemic Infrastructure 222 Development Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Key 226 to Pacifics Ongoing COVID-19 Strategy Build Green to Help Fend Off the Next Pandemic 229 The Response to COVID-19 Should Also Be a Response 232 to the C

23、limate Crisis Back to Blue: Lets Value Our Oceans Again 235 Contents Navigating COVID-19 in Asia and the Pacific vi Tables and Figures Tables 1.1: Impact on Global Remittance Inflows 34 1.2: Share of Each Economic Measure as of 20 April and 1 June 2020 43 3.1: Financial Assistance to Micro, Small, a

24、nd 76 Medium-Sized Enterprises in Response to COVID-19 in Select Asian Countries 5.1: Major Factors Contributing to Higher Food Prices 132 in the 20072008 Food Crisis and the COVID-19 Pandemic 6.1: Export Credit Agency Models, by Degree 157 of Government Intervention Figures 1.1: Employment Sectoral

25、 Distribution by Subregion, 2019 24 1.2: Share of Informal Employment in Non-Agriculture Sector 25 1.3: Informal Employment by Sector 27 in Select Asian Countries 1.4: Regional Average Share of Formal Employment 28 to Total Employment by Gender 1.5: Share of the Recipient Households 35 with Internat

26、ional Remittances 1.6: The SARS and COVID-19 Infection and Death 39 Numbers Compared 1.7: Share of Each Measure in Regions Total Package 44 1.8: The COVID-19 Measures and Funding 46 2.1: LIBOROIS SpreadGlobal Financial Crisis 52 versus COVID-19 Economic Impact and Policy Response vii 2.2: Cross-Curr

27、ency Basis Swap 53 2.3: Leveraged Loans 59 3.1: MSME Business Environment after the COVID-19 Outbreak 79 3.2: MSME Monthly Income during the COVID-19 Pandemic 80 3.3: Changes in MSME Employment after the COVID-19 Outbreak 81 3.4: Wage Payments by MSMEs during the COVID-19 Pandemic 82 3.5: MSME Finan

28、cial Condition during the COVID-19 Pandemic 83 3.6: MSME Funding during the COVID-19 Pandemic 84 3.7: MSME Responses 85 3.8: Policy Measures Desired by MSMEs 86 5.1: Lockdown Impact on Food Supply Chain 130 5.2: Informal Employment 131 5.3: World Stock-to-Use Ratio and Prices of Rice and Wheat 133 6

29、.1: Consumption and Investment Growth Revisions 143 versus Restriction and Severity Measures 6.2: COVID-19 Global Spillovers and Exports to GDP 145 6.3: COVID-19 Impact on Developing Asian Economies 146 6.4: Sectoral Impact on Developing Asian Economies 147 8.1: Scenario Analysis of Domestic Tourist

30、s 193 Replacing Foreign Tourists, based on Number of Tourists 8.2: Scenario Analysis of Bilateral Travel Bubble with 195 Largest Partner, based on Number of Tourists 8.3: Scenario Analysis of Subregional Tourism Bubbles, 196 based on Number of Tourists 9.1: Deaths from Disasters, 1990-2018 216 Table

31、s and Figures Navigating COVID-19 in Asia and the Pacific viii Bambang Susantono is the Vice-President for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). He is the first Indonesian in this position. He holds a PhD in Infrastructure Planning, and has two masters

32、 degrees in Transportation Engineering, and City and Regional Planning from the University of California, Berkeley. He graduated with a Bachelor of Engineering from the Civil Engineering Department, the Bandung Institute of Technology. Dr. Susantono is responsible for managing knowledge in ADB, and

33、coordinating research and studies on various topics such as energy, transport, education, health, finance, and urban development; and also cross-cutting nexus themes such as climate change, governance, gender, social development, environment, rural development and food security, and regional coopera

34、tion. He also coordinates ADB annual flagship publications such as the Asian Development Outlook, Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific, and Asian Economic Integration Report. Prior to this, Dr. Susantono was the Acting Minister and Vice-Minister of Transportation of Indonesia, and Deputy Minister

35、 for Infrastructure and Regional Development at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs. He was also Member of the Board for airline, port, telecommunications, and media companies. He has chaired several research institutes and taught in universities. He is actively doing research, has publis

36、hed several books, and has written articles on the subject of infrastructure, transportation, urban and regional planning, sustainable development, and climate change. Dr. Susantono has received several accolades, including Bintang Mahaputra Utama, Satya Lencana Pembangunan, Satya Lencana Wira Karya

37、, Rekor MURI 2015, Sustainable Leadership Award 2018, Ganesha Widya Jasa Adiutama (ITB) 2019, and Top 100 Fintech for SDG Influencer 2019. About the Editors Economic Impact and Policy Response ix Yasuyuki Sawada is the Chief Economist of ADB and Director General of its Economic Research and Regional

38、 Cooperation Department. He is the chief spokesperson for ADB on economic and development trends, and leads the production and dissemination of ADBs flagship knowledge products, as well as ADBs support for various regional cooperation fora such as Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+3 and

39、 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Before joining ADB, Mr. Sawada was Professor of Economics at the University of Tokyo. A leading figure in development economics, he has served as a visiting professor at Stanford University, adjunct professor of economics at Korea University, and AJRC Resea

40、rch Associate, Australian National University. He has led a number of development policy research projects in a variety of institutions, such as the ADB Institute in Tokyo, the World Bank, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA

41、), the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Research Institute, the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), BRAC, and Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE). He is a recipient of various awards such as the Is

42、hikawa Prize of the Japanese Economic Association, Nikkei Book Prize, and Masayoshi Ohira Memorial Prize. His key research areas are macro- and micro-development economics, economics of disasters, and field surveys and experiments. Mr. Sawada obtained his PhD in Economics and his masters degree in I

43、nternational Development Policy from Stanford University. About the Editors Navigating COVID-19 in Asia and the Pacific x Cyn-Young Park is Director of the Regional Cooperation and Integration Division in the Economics Research and Regional Cooperation Department of the ADB. In her current capacity,

44、 she manages a team of economists to examine economic and policy issues related to regional cooperation and integration (RCI) and develop strategies and approaches to support RCI. During her progressive career within ADB, she has been a main author and contributor to ADBs major publications includin

45、g Asian Development Outlook (ADBs flagship publication), Asian Economic Integration Report, Asia Capital Markets Monitor, Asia Economic Monitor, Asia Bond Monitor, and ADB Country Diagnostic Study Series. She has also participated in various global and regional fora including the G20 Development Wor

46、king Group, ASEAN, ASEAN+3, APEC, and Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM). She has written and lectured extensively about the Asian economy and financial markets. Her work has been published in peer reviewed academic journals including the Journal of Banking and Finance, the Journal of Financial Stability, t

47、he Journal of Futures Markets, the Review of Income and Wealth, and the World Economy. Prior to joining ADB, she served as Economist (1999-2002) at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), where she contributed to the OECD Economic Outlook. She received her PhD in Economics

48、 from Columbia University. She holds a bachelors degree in International Economics from Seoul National University. About the Editors Economic Impact and Policy Response xi Authors Abdul Abiad is director of the Macroeconomics Research Division, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department (

49、ERCD), Asian Development Bank (ADB). Mia Arao is a consultant, ERCD, ADB. Preety Bhandari is chief of the Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management Thematic Group, concurrently director, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management Division, Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department (SDCC), ADB. Steven Beck is advisor (trade and supply chain finance), Private Sector Operations Department (PSOD), ADB. Bruno Carrasco is chief of the Governance Thematic Group, Thematic Advisor