1、A P R I L 2 0 2 0 The consumer and COVID-19: Global consumer sentiment research in the consumer products and retail industry A s countries move along the COVID-19 curve, traditional shopping behavior is significantly disrupted and transformed: Uncertainty is high, many businesses are shut, and peopl

2、e are concerned about recession. With these recession concerns, they are keeping a closer eye on spending: customers are focusing on essential goods rather than lifestyle and leisure products, for example. At the same time, with lockdown measures in place around the world, there has been a surge in

3、the use of online channels. In this fast-changing and volatile environment, how can consumer products and retail organizations drive operational resilience and maintain their pre-crisis focus on customer relationships and engagement? To help answer those questions - and understand the impact of the

4、pandemic on short-term and mid-term consumer behaviors, we surveyed more than 11,000 consumers around the world. At the beginning of April 2020, we reached out to consumers across the US, UK, Germany, France, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Italy, Spain, India, and China. Drawing on that extensive rese

5、arch, this analysis focuses on three key consumer trends for consumer products and retail (CPR) organizations in the short- and mid-term: 1. Convenience: Appetite for online shopping and convenience will continue to accelerate post-lockdown 2. Health and safety: With consumers becoming more concerne

6、d about health and wellness, they will expect safer in-store and last-mile practices from CPR organizations in a post-pandemic scenario 3. Focus on purpose: CPR organizations that embody a sense of purpose and strong sustainability credentials will see greater consumer engagement. RESEARCH NOTE 1 So

7、urce: Capgemini Research Institute, Consumer Behavior Survey, April 48, 2020, N=11,281 consumers. Appetite for online shopping and convenience will continue to grow after lockdowns are lifted The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the significance of online channels. Today, consumers consider online

8、as their primary shopping channel and this will persist in the immediate future. In that digital-first environment, operational agility, flexibility and consumer engagement assume huge significance. Consumer appetite for online shopping is growing With more and more cities and urban areas under lock

9、down, non-essential businesses closing, and customers avoiding public places in general, interaction with physical stores has taken a heavy toll and online interaction is accelerating (see Figure 1): Physical stores: 59% of consumers worldwide said they had high levels of interaction with physical s

10、tores before COVID-19, but today less than a quarter (24%) see themselves in that high-interaction category. In next 69 months, 39% of consumers expect a high level of interaction with physical stores clearly below the pre-COVID levels. Online channels: 30% say that they had high levels of interacti

11、on with online channels before the crisis, but 37% would characterize themselves in that light today. In the next 69 months, this interaction is expected to accelerate further. Although traditional organizations have been improving their online capabilities in recent years, todays unprecedented situ

12、ation has placed significant stress on online channels. For example, food retailers in some countries have struggled to meet order demand. Core operational agility and resilience is now a priority and we highlight several action points for the industry: 59% Before the COVID-19 outbreak 24% In the cu

13、rrent scenario 39% In the next 69 months Before the COVID-19 outbreak 30% In the current scenario 37% In the next 69 months 40% Percentage of consumers with high interactions with online retail channels Percentage of consumers with high interactions with physical retail stores 59% OF CONSUMERS WORLD

14、WIDE SAID THEY HAD HIGH LEVELS OF INTERACTION WITH PHYSICAL STORES BEFORE COVID-19, BUT TODAY LESS THAN A QUARTER (24%) SEE THEMSELVES IN THAT HIGH-INTERACTION CATEGORY The Consumer and COVID-19 Figure 1: Consumers appetite for online shopping is growing RESEARCH NOTEAPRIL 2020 2 Focus on realigning

15、 product categories: Organizations need to continuously reassess consumer preferences and align categories and offers accordingly. This requires agile demand planning and clear prioritization of focus areas and resources. Unilever says it is currently focusing on meeting a surge in demand for food a

16、nd refreshments and concentrating on larger SKU items such as large jars of mayonnaise rather than smaller containers.1 In the long-term, being highly responsive towards consumer trends will be critical, and organizations that can automate predictive analytics for consumer behavior will be the ones

17、who can best match offerings and demand. Build immediate response capabilities with suppliers: Organizations should adapt their supply chain and work closely with their suppliers to ensure: An aligned and scenario-based business continuity plan is in place to frequently assess evolving scenarios Ade

18、quate supplies are on hand to meet demand along with a “buffer” stock of essential items Agile approaches are in place to handle logistics and fulfillment of online orders such as adopting drop shipping where the supplier directly fulfills the customer order Optimum inventory visibility establishing

19、 communication and data-sharing channels with their suppliers and consumers to drive flexibility and transparency. Explore different fulfillment centers for online orders: Stores as fulfillment centers: US-based supermarket Kroger converted one of its stores into an exclusive fulfillment center to f

20、ulfill hyperlocal online orders.2 To support the shipping of online orders and to lower delivery costs, organizations should focus on three areas: (1) repurposing store layouts to support a higher volume of online orders, (2) ensuring inventory accuracy, and (3) training staff for store-based fulfil

21、lment. Our previous analysis has shown that a 50% increase in store-based deliveries could potentially increase profit margins by 9% due to lower delivery cost and less time taken for delivery.3 Using “dark stores” retail outposts with a store-like layout whose sole purpose is to fulfill online orde

22、rs will also help enable faster delivery. This is because of their proximity to urban areas and the fact that their layout is specifically designed for this goal. By avoiding the use of normal stores for fulfilment, it also ensures in-store customers are not disrupted. Distribution centers: Converti

23、ng existing distribution centers (DCs) to suit e-Commerce or opening dedicated e-Commerce centers as well as entering into collaborative partnerships for optimal utilization of DCs should be considered. For instance, the UK governments initiative temporarily allowing supermarkets to share distributi

24、on depots, delivery vans, and stock data is a positive action in this regard.4 Consumers demand delivery reassurance and flexibility As Figure 2 shows, more than half of consumers prefer organizations that offer delivery assurances and flexible delivery options both in the current crisis scenario an

25、d beyond. Firms must scale up operational agility to ensure that delivery assurances and flexibility are offered and upheld to not risk losing them to firms fulfilling these expectations. Figure 2: Consumers prefer retailers that offer delivery assurances and flexible delivery Source: Capgemini Rese

26、arch Institute, Consumer Behavior Survey, April 48, 2020, N=11,281 consumers. DisagreeNeutralAgree Current preferenceIn the next 69 monthsCurrent preferenceIn the next 69 months 45% 24% 31% 49% 24% 27% 45% 26% 29% 50% 25% 25% I prefer to purchase with organizations off ering delivery at fl exible ti

27、me slots I prefer to purchase from organizations who off er delivery assurances/assurances of compensation for future cancellations RESEARCH NOTEAPRIL 2020 3The Consumer and COVID-19 The last mile clearly needs to be both robust and agile. Some action points emerge for CPR organizations: Partner wit

28、h the delivery platforms: Leveraging the established delivery ecosystems for their fleet network helps organizations to “plug and play” last mile capabilities and avoid delayed deliveries. Figure 3 highlights a few emerging models used by CPR companies today. Look at a fluid workforce to deal with f

29、luctuating demand and supply: Walmart is hiring 150,000 temporary workers to manage demand.11 In the UK, Tesco launched a major recruitment drive to hire 20,000 temporary workers.12 Amazon is targeting 100,000 new full-time and part-time positions to deal with increased demand.13 Flexible delivery s

30、lots: US-based grocery delivery service Instacart, for instance, has designed a “Fast overall sustainability is also a key issue: 67% said that they will be more cautious about the scarcity of natural resources and 65% said that they will be more mindful about the impact of their overall consumption

31、 once the pandemic is over. (see Figure 10). Action points for CPR organizations: Strengthen your sustainability initiatives across the value chain: With consumers becoming more mindful and aware, strengthening the organizations sustainability actions will cultivate authentic relationships and build

32、 engagement and brand loyalty. This means looking at the entire value chain and beyond and identifying opportunities for sustainable product design with a circular approach or looking at responsibly sourced raw materials, a greener manufacturing process and store operations, reducing waste throughou

33、t the lifecycle, and looking for opportunities for eco-friendly packaging, etc. We have seen several examples of organizations using innovative approaches or technological advances to make their operations more sustainable and, in return, gaining consumer trust and confidence. For instance, Adidas a

34、nd Parley for the Oceans collaboration sold more than one million sneakers made with recycled ocean plastic in 2017.47 Unilevers “Sustainable Living Brands” are growing 69% faster than the rest of the business and delivering 75% of the companys growth.48 As mentioned previously, consumers are increa

35、singly looking for local products both for health and safety reasons and for sustainability. So, providing transparency on the origin and footprint of the goods will help consumers make a sustainable choice and build trust. French retail group, Auchan, is looking towards blockchain for food traceabi

36、lity. Customers would be able to scan a product with a QR code in the supermarket, and the app would show where the product came from, who handled it, and how it reached its end destination addressing concerns on food safety as well as the carbon footprint of the product.49 Make your e-Commerce gree

37、ner: Consumer preferences for online shopping is accelerating fast. This gives retail and consumer goods organizations an opportunity to adopt sustainability initiatives that integrate with their digital presence: Combine deliveries: Allowing to consumers to have all their orders delivered together

38、can help reduce both cost and carbon footprint. In 2019, Amazon introduced a new delivery option for its Prime members called Amazon Day, which allows customers to choose any day of the week to receive all the orders at one time.50 Letting consumers opt for wider delivery slots can help optimize rou

39、tes and reduce carbon emissions as well as costs. Streamline returns and pick-ups: e-Commerce returns, as well as being costly, add to landfill waste and increase carbon emissions. Technologies such as AI and data analytics can help to streamline returns from e-Commerce channels. For example, IKEA i

40、s using AI to predict the best possible destination for returned merchandise. The algorithm currently covers items returned from in-store purchases but can accommodate online returns as well.51 65% of consumers will be more mindful in their purchase habits 67% of consumers will be more conscious abo

41、ut conservation of natural resources Once the pandemic is over Figure 10: Consumers will be more mindful in their purchase habits and conscious about conserving natural resources Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Consumer Behavior Survey, April 48, 2020, N=11,281 consumers. RESEARCH NOTEAPRIL 20

42、20 11The Consumer and COVID-19 Optimize delivery routes: Over many years of operation, retailers have experimented with optimal route plans in their supply chain. Using technologies such as AI, each optimized route plan is saved for an algorithm to learn and improve its suggestions. UK-based Tesco,

43、Chinas JD.com and Alibaba are some of the retailers implementing AI-based optimized routing and they are gaining sustainability benefits.52 Outlook: Customer sentiment points towards optimism and recovery in a 12-month timeframe We conducted this survey with more than 11,000 consumers from April 48,

44、 2020. Our survey findings highlight that close to half (48%) are optimistic about recovery from the current crisis in the next six months. When asked about the next 12 months, positive sentiment increases, with 70% optimistic about recovery (see Figure 11) 70% of consumers feel optimistic about rec

45、overy from the current outbreak 48% of consumers feel optimistic about recovery from the current outbreak In the next 12 months In the next six months PessimisticNeutral/Not SureOptimistic SwedenItalySpainFrance NetherlandsGermanyUnited Kingdom United States OverallNorwayChinaIndia 48% 22% 30% 75% 1

46、4% 10% 75% 14% 11% 50% 26% 24% 48% 22% 30% 46% 19% 35% 43% 22% 35% 40% 23% 37% 39% 21% 40% 38% 24% 38% 38% 30% 31% 37% 23% 41% Looking at sentiment over the next six months, optimism is particularly high in China and India. Chinas optimism can be attributed to the country emerging out of lockdown to

47、wards potential glimpses of recovery.53 At the time the survey was conducted, India reported lower impact numbers than the other countries,54 which can be related to high optimism levels. On the other hand, pessimism is high in the UK and continental Europe (see Figure 12). Figure 11: . Consumer opt

48、imism about recovery Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Consumer Behavior Survey, April 48, 2020, N=11,281 consumers. Figure 12: Consumer sentiment about recovery in the next six months by country Source: Capgemini Research Institute, Consumer Behavior Survey, April 48, 2020, N=11,281 consumers.

49、RESEARCH NOTEAPRIL 2020 12The Consumer and COVID-19 TThis document is part of the Capgemini Research Institutes special series of research notes on pragmatic tips to help organizations tide over the COVID-19 pandemic. You can find more such research notes and other tips and analyses at : our-company/covid-19-insights-for-today-and-tomorrow/ Contributors Tim Bridges, Global Sector Lead, Consumer Products, Retail Distribution, Capgemini; Kees Jacobs, Vice President, Global Consumer Products, Retail Di