1、OUTMANEUVERUNCERTAINTYNOWNEXT Is it time for a course correction? COVID-19:What to do Now, What to do Next The situation surrounding COVID-19 is rapidly evolving. This presentation should therefore be considered a living documentrepresentative of our view at a point in time. Highly Confidential See

2、Accentures Data Classification 3 Accenture CEO Surveys 3 In May, we highlighted the steps that companies could take to reinvent themselves as they reopened2. Many organizations are seizing the opportunity to build competencies that will help them emerge strongerto be more digital, data-driven and in

3、 the cloud; to have more agile operations and variable cost structures; to deliver greater experiences for workers and customers. 64% of the C-suite executives we surveyed have already launched initiatives to adjust to the post-COVID reality3. But as circumstances have evolved, companies now face a

4、set of potential cross-currents on their journey to recovery. 4 As companies moved to reopen and reinvent2, they embraced “no regret” strategies, appropriate in every scenario This has led companies to focus on strategies in these areas: Our research found that companies wished they were further alo

5、ng in building the business capabilities they need to differentiate in todays disrupted world, using “no regret” strategies that include: Being more digital, data driven and, in the cloud The pandemic has heightened the urgency for companies to scale their digital foundations. Our 2019 research meas

6、ured differences in digital technology adoption and found that the leaders (top 10%) grow revenue at 2x the rate of the laggards (bottom 25%).4 Establishing a variable cost structure for their operations Having stronger, more integrated ecommerce capabilities Using more automation and AI Adopting co

7、llaboration tools Access to modern, resilient and faster IT without legacy IT debt Digital Customer Engagement Technology-Powered Business Transformation Cloud Transformation Finance Transformation Digital Commerce HR and Workforce Transformation 5 Openingalso requires scenario- specific strategies

8、and a journey with continual course corrections. Raise global-local dexterity while hedging your bets. Adjust for multiple speeds of recovery and put mitigating strategies in place for all eventualities. Keep human needs at the heart of your choices. Prepare for a phase of individual choice over gov

9、ernment policy to strengthen trust. Reposition for recovery not relief. Actively shape your future. Companies must chart their bearings and course correct on a continual basis. 03. 01. Journey to recovery and reinvention 02. Critical cross- currents 03. Course corrections 7 Where reopening is under

10、way, there have been mixed signs of recovery Countries are reopening in earnest, with all major economies loosening their restrictions since April5. Movement to places of work, retail stores and recreation spaces has increased in tandem, as has consumer spending. In the US, for example, consumer cre

11、dit and debit spending was just 6% down in mid-July from January, having bottomed out at -33% on March 30th. The uptick is not equal in all sectors, however. While were seeing surges in sectors like retail, activity in labor-intensive sectors like tourism and hospitality are expected to remain subdu

12、ed, with spending on entertainment and recreation, for example, still down c48% from January.6 South Korea Brazil Germany USA South Africa India UK Movement to retail stores and recreation spaces has steadily increased Source: Data on loosening of restrictions is from Oxford COVID-19 Government Resp

13、onse Tracker. Data on US consumer spending is from Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker as of 1stJuly. Andrew Haldane gave a speech on 30 June. Mobility data is from Google COVID-10 Community Mobility Reports. Weekly average compared with decline from baseline. The baseline day is the median value

14、from the 5-week period Jan 3 Feb 6, 2020. -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 20 Mar24 Apr22 May17 Jul26 Jun Companies are charting their journey to a post-COVID-19 world Post-COVID-19 WorldLockdown From responding to the immediate challengesto building the next generation enterprise Talent CIDRAP; Harvard; S

15、tat News; Journal of Infectious Diseases; bioRxiv; medRxiv; The Hill; NYT Vaccine Tracker; JAMA Network; CEBM; Bob Wachter, UCSF; BBC; Institute for Global Change; NYT; NYT; Reuters Institute; Washington Post; University of Maryland Social Distancing Index; The Economist. 12 Sources: Harvard CCD; CI

16、DRAP; Harvard; Stat News; Journal of Infectious Diseases; bioRxiv; medRxiv; The Hill; NYT Vaccine Tracker; JAMA Network; CEBM; Bob Wachter, UCSF; BBC; Institute for Global Change; NYT; NYT; Reuters Institute; Washington Post; University of Maryland Social Distancing Index; The Economist. How has our

17、 understanding of the diseases progressionchanged? How has our understanding of the societal responsechanged? We know a lot more about the characteristics of the virus. Seasonality does not appear to slow spread, compared to other factors. The prevalence and duration of immunity is only partly under

18、stood. Test-trace-isolate is key to success; countries are still working to build out the required infrastructure. Many countries, high-income mostly, have been able to ramp up surge capacity for healthcare systems. Vaccine and therapeutics development continues to move at an unprecedented pace. Som

19、e countries are choosing to reopen before the pandemic is under control. 01 Global (and even local) coordination has been limited, with a nation first approach prevalent. 02 The public is losing trust in governments abilities to provide accurate information on the pandemic. 03 Public and political w

20、ill to address the virus appears to be waning. 04 Companies have displayed their ability to move fast and fix things. 05 Unprecedented government stimulus packages have kept markets and businesses afloat. 06 Companies increasingly focused on stakeholder concerns vs. purely on profit and shareholder

21、interests. 07 13 How the landscape is changing 01 02 03 04 05 06 Three critical cross-currents are affecting companies COVID-19 reopening and reinvention strategies 01 A material shift in peoples attitudes The removal of strict containment measures signals a shift from policy to choice. This increas

22、ingly places the onus on individual responsibility, creating challenges for companies trying to implement people-centric strategies, and responding to constant fluctuations in customers and workers attitudes. 0203 A dramatic shift in fiscal stimulus Regardless of case counts and downside risks, poli

23、cymakers are looking to the future, removing short-term fiscal support in favor of long-term stimulus. While posing risks, this creates opportunities for companies to support the rebuild. 14 An acceleration in regional divergence, and a rapidly growing risk of disorder Countries, regions and even ci

24、ties are increasingly being driven down different paths, with signs of all scenarios emerging. This means multinationals face different regulatory regimes and challenges across their markets. While countries have the wherewithal to suppress the outbreak, the will of policymakers and the public is wa

25、ning. So, while many companies had assumed a relatively benign base case scenario would play out,the risk of worst-case scenarios is rising. A materialshift in peoples attitudes The removal of strict containment measures signals a shift from policy to choice. This increasingly places the onus on ind

26、ividual responsibility, creating challenges for companies trying to implement people-centric strategies, and responding to constant fluctuations in customers and workers attitudes. This view has been echoed by leading scientists, including Dr Andrea Ammon, Director of the European Centre for Disease

27、 Prevention and Control: “Politicians have to convey the message to people that its really up to them to decide whats happening with this pandemic. And in a way, empowering them by saying: What you do actually matters.”9 Sources: Data on government requirements is from Oxford COVID-19 Government Res

28、ponse Tracker using sub-indicators on school closing, workplace closing and stay at home requirements. Data is collected on 177 countries. The current data is from 25 June, at which point data was only available for 154 countries. Data on public compliance and trust is from Accentures global consume

29、r pulse survey. The data used is based on 8,852 responses from June 16-22, and is compared to data from the pulse taken from April 2-6. Quotes sourced from: NowThis; Twitter; The Economist Mixed results of workers attitudes towards employers since the outbreak rate their employers crisis responses p

30、oorly, increasing risk of reputational damage. 43% feel more positive about their employers since the outbreak, establishing better relations in the long-term. 48% Change in work-from-home frequency from pre-to post-outbreak of people plan to increase the amount they work from home in the future. 36

31、% of people who never worked from home previously now plan to work from home more often in the future. 53% Government mandatory rules are being replaced by guidance of countries do not have stay at home orders (half of those recommend not leaving the house), a 33% increase from May 1. 68% “In South

32、Korea, restaurants and bars, that have largely remained open during the crisis, faced the worst criticism.” June 2020 Some will face a backlash from customers over their response to COVID-19 of people trust their government to make the right decisions, a 6% decline from the start of April. 64% of co

33、nsumers do not think product and retail firms responded well. This disappointing trend has continued since March. 45% 15 01 Shift from policy to individual responsibility complicated by mixed confidence in employer and brand responses Each country, region and even city, faces a unique set of circums

34、tances, whether from a high number of residents in nursing homes or a large informal economy. The choices made in response are driving regions down different paths. In Brazil, for example, there have been conflicting responses between local and national government, leading to an uncoordinated respon

35、se. In Israel, central action dealt with the outbreak, but a second spike has occurred as public adherence to rules declined. The UK was relatively slow to act, but a well observed lockdown has been effective. Failure to expand test and trace and shifts in public behavior pose risks. Vietnams succes

36、s has been built on a well- developed public health system and a proactive detection and containment strategy based on comprehensive testing, tracing and quarantining. Accenture Research analysis of data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Further detail on: Brazil, Israel,

37、UK, Vietnam. -10 40 90 140 190 240 0204060800180 NEW CONFIRMED CASES OF COVID-19 Seven-day rolling average of new cases (per million) Prolonged wave: Brazil Cyclical outbreaks: Israel Global Number of days since 0.1 average cases (per million) first recorded Rapid Remission: Vietnam Flatt

38、ened curve: UK USA Germany South Africa Each of the four scenarios is represented by at least one country 16 An acceleration in regional divergence 02 Increasingly localized response is driving regions and countries down different paths The risk of worst-case scenarios is rising. We see four potenti

39、al trajectories, featuring countries that: 1.Brought cases to near-zero and have been quick to address small outbreaks. 2. Brought cases under control (without completely eliminating transmission), that risk second outbreaks due to political missteps and declining public adherence to public health m

40、easures. 3. Appeared to be trending towards Rapid Remission and Flattened Curve, but are now in the midst of Cyclical Outbreaks due to increased risks taken by policymakers and/or the public. 4. Have chosen to reopen their economies with R0above 1, having determined that lockdowns are unfeasible (ei

41、ther politically or economically) to maintain. They risk healthcare system overload. This is a particular concern for low/mid-income economies. Accenture Research analysis. Mapping expresses relative, not absolute positioning. Some countries have significant variation in scenarios by state or region

42、. Indicative scenario pathways of select countries - + +_ Rapid Remission Cyclical OutbreaksProlonged Wave China S. Korea Germany USA Italy UK N. Zealand Global Iran Brazil SOCIETAL RESPONSE Government, People, on the scale of impact (e.g. macro, industry-wide or more micro) and on the level of chan

43、ge (e.g. permanent or temporary). Build capabilities and partnerships to more effectively explore how to make better business decisions informed by expertise in areas such as ethics, social psychology and the humanities. Lead responsibly from the front Many companies have not responded quickly enoug

44、h to the crisis, bogged down by entrenched mindsets. To be more responsive to future shocks and realize the benefits of true diversity of thought, redefine the norms of what your leadership teams look like, seeking out neuro-diverse, contrarian voices, who dont fit the typical profile of a leader or

45、 the culture of the organization. Revisit succession planning and invest in learning programs, considering whether the values and skills of those picked for future leadership are aligned with those that are needed post-crisis. Reinvent leadership development: Given the shift in mindset, revisit not

46、only how you select leaders, but also how you develop them from an early stage. What to do next: 25 The Dock, Accentures Global R&D and Innovation Center, has established a Human Insights Lab to bring societal perspective to emerging challenges facing Accentures clients and leadership. Its team of e

47、xperts in the areas of social psychology, ethics and humanities enables The Dock to explore the intended and unintended possible impacts of applying emerging technologies in industries from public safety to banking. The Dock has also established the UnreasonableFUTURE program with organizations incl

48、uding the Unreasonable Group, together with Pearson and Fossil Foundation to design a future in which people and technology work side-by-side to solve workplace challenges and unlock human potential everywhere. Read more about UnreasonableFUTURE. Learn more about creating workforce resilience and th

49、e new era of customer engagement. What to do now: 26 Raise global- local dexterity Adjust to multiple speeds of recovery Geographies are increasingly following separate paths, reopening with different levels of restrictions, guidelines and timelines. And they will likely follow different trajectories going forward. Given the highly varied approaches, and likely differences in company competencies by country, there wont be a global playbook for responding to the ongoing crisis. Companies will need to increase their global-local dexterity so the right choices