1、1 Johnson Matthey Pgm Market Report May 2019 Demand for Platinum increases steadily 2018年5年年年年年年年年年 February 2020 Pgm Market Report The Pgm Market Report is written by Alison Cowley. Johnson Mattheys pgm market research for this report was conducted by: Lucy Bloxham Stewart Brown Laura Cole Alison C

2、owley Mikio Fujita Nicolas Girardot Jason Jiang Rupen Raithatha Margery Ryan Elaine Shao Fei Xiaoyan Disclaimer Johnson Matthey PLC endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials contained within this report, but makes no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or suitability for a

3、ny particular purpose. Johnson Matthey PLC accepts no liability whatsoever in respect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this report, which are utilised expressly at the users own risk. This report has been prepared by the Market Research Department of Johnson M

4、atthey PLC and contains information, opinions, estimates and forecasts relating to the development of the pgm markets. Such information, opinions, estimates and forecasts are as of the date set out and are subject to change. None of the information contained in the report should be construed as, or

5、form part of, a recommendation to buy or sell any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments, or as making any recommendation or as providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase sale or other disposition of, any regula

6、ted precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments. A decision to invest in any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the information or materials in th

7、is presentation. This report does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments. Definitions . ii Platinum Summary: Supply and Demand in 2019 . Page 1 Plati

8、num Outlook: Supply and Demand in 2020 . Page 9 Palladium Summary: Supply and Demand in 2019 . Page 13 Palladium Outlook: Supply and Demand in 2020 . Page 17 Rhodium: Summary of 2019 that is it is net of any closed-loop recycling (i.e. where industry participants retain ownership of the metal: an ex

9、ample would be recycling of spent chemical catalysts where the metal is retained to be used on fresh catalyst that replaces the spent charge). Gross demand also includes any changes in unrefined metal stocks in the sector. Increases in unrefined stocks lead to additional demand, while reductions in

10、stocks (including any metal released from industry, e.g. in the case of chemical plant closures) lead to lower demand. Autocatalyst demand is allocated to the region where the vehicle is manufactured and is accounted for at the time of vehicle production. It includes emissions catalysts on vehicles,

11、 motorcycles and three- wheelers, and non-road mobile machinery. (Fuel cell vehicles are counted under industrial demand.) Jewellery demand is allocated to the region where the finished jewellery is manufactured, not sold. Net demand is gross demand less open-loop recycling. Movements in stocks This

12、 figure gives the overall market balance in any one year and reflects the extent of stocks that must be mobilised to balance the market in that year. It is thus a proxy for changes in stocks held by fabricators, dealers, banks and depositories, but excludes stocks held by primary and secondary refin

13、ers and final consumers. A positive figure (market surplus) thus reflects an increase in global market stocks. A negative value (market deficit) indicates a decrease in global market stocks. Definitions ii Johnson Matthey Pgm Market Report February 2020 1 Johnson Matthey Pgm Market Report February 2

14、020 Platinum Summary Supply and Demand in 2019 Resurgent investment demand, with over a million ounces added to ETF holdings, pushed the platinum market into deficit in 2019. Platinum use in autocatalysts dropped 2% on lower diesel car output and a delay in stricter heavy vehicle emissions limits in

15、 China. Chinese jewellery sector weakness intensified as fabricators increasingly switched to gold. Industrial demand remained elevated by Chinese capacity expansions, but retreated somewhat from 2018s record level. Auto recycling rose, but was affected by rising industry lead times. Primary supplie

16、s fell slightly as disruptions to mine output offset the release of pipeline stocks. The platinum market swung into deficit in 2019, as a resurgence in ETF buying lifted physical investment demand to a record 1.13 million ounces. This outweighed a modest contraction in global industrial and automoti

17、ve demand and a double-digit drop in the Chinese platinum jewellery market. Combined primary and secondary supplies rose marginally, as growth in autocatalyst scrap volumes was partly offset by a slight decline in supply from South Africa and Russia. In South Africa, underlying mine output fell by a

18、bout 3% as high-cost shafts continued to close, but our supply estimates allow for the shipment of some metal released from inventories. During the first ten months of 2019, investors added over one million ounces of platinum to their ETF holdings, taking the total volume of platinum under investmen

19、t to a record 3.4 million ounces. Unlike past periods of rapid growth in platinum ETFs, this activity was not associated with the launch of new ETF products, nor was it driven by a sustained price rally. Instead, it appears to have been triggered by an abrupt shift in sentiment towards platinum, par

20、ticularly among European and South African investors. Although palladium has seen dramatic gains over the past three years, the platinum price has remained subdued and range-bound. This has led some investors to conclude that platinum is under-priced, especially in view of its future potential to su

21、bstitute for palladium in some autocatalyst applications. At the same time, the perceived downside risk to South African supplies has risen: further shaft closures occurred in 2019 (and more are planned), periodic electricity shortages have caused some disruption to processing activities, and there

22、were concerns that the 2019 wage negotiation round might culminate in strike action, Platinum Supply and Demand 000 oz Supply201720182019 South Africa 4,450 4,467 4,411 Russia720 687 667 Others969 956 942 Total Supply6,139 6,110 6,020 Gross Demand Autocatalyst3,208 2,967 2,913 Jewellery2,387 2,261 2

23、,082 Industrial2,038 2,493 2,358 Investment361 67 1,131 Total Gross Demand7,994 7,788 8,484 Recycling -2,049 -2,098 -2,261 Total Net Demand5,945 5,690 6,223 Movements in Stocks194 420 -203 as occurred in 2014. (However, by year-end, all major producers had reached new three-year wage agreements). Mo

24、st of the ETF buying which took place in 2019 was net new investment in pgm, rather than investors switching out of palladium (holdings of which fell only modestly over the same period). In addition to the industry- specific factors discussed above, it is likely that platinum benefited from a genera

25、lly positive environment for safe- haven investments such as precious metals. The trade dispute between the USA and China has exacerbated a slowdown in world economic growth and has enhanced the attractiveness of gold. With platinum trading at a record discount to gold, it has drawn renewed interest

26、 from precious metal investors. In contrast, sales of physical platinum products to Japanese investors were lacklustre in 2019. Japanese investment demand typically runs counter to trends elsewhere in the world, because domestic investors have historically taken advantage of periods of falling price

27、s to add to their platinum holdings. Between 2015 and 2018, as the retail platinum price moved down through 4,000 and then 3,500 per gram, and to a historically wide discount to gold, Japanese investors acquired over 1.5 million ounces of platinum in the form of bars purchased over the counter from

28、bullion houses. However, by the time the price hit a nine-year low of 3,040 in August 2018, it appeared that investors appetite for platinum had largely been sated, with weak prices in the second half of that year stimulating only modest amounts of buying. During 2019, price movements were less cond

29、ucive to Japanese investment. Retail platinum prices trended generally upwards, from around 3,100 in early January to over 3,700 at the year end. There was some moderate purchasing during a sharp mid-year correction, as platinum lost 14% of its yen value during May, but investor activity was otherwi

30、se subdued for most of the year. However, perhaps surprisingly after four years of significant purchasing into a falling market, there was only limited evidence of profit-taking as prices climbed. Overall, we estimate that Japanese investors acquired around 50,000 oz of platinum bars last year. With

31、 total investment exceeding 1.1 million ounces, the platinum market moved into deficit last year despite falling consumption in all other major demand sectors. Autocatalyst demand was hit by declining diesel car sales which outweighed a slight increase in average catalyst loadings, while industrial

32、demand retreated slightly from an all-time high the previous year, and weakness in the Chinese jewellery sector intensified. Overall, total non- investment demand fell by around 5%. In our May 2019 report, we predicted that autocatalyst demand would recover modestly from a five-year low in 2018. How

33、ever, global heavy and light duty production volumes fell in 2019, while plans for the 2 Johnson Matthey Pgm Market Report February 2020 “Platinum swung into deficit in 2019, as physical investment surged to a record 1.13 million ounces.” early implementation of China VI legislation on heavy duty tr

34、ucks have been pushed back. As a result, we now believe that platinum consumption in autocatalysts fell by 2% to 2.91 million ounces last year. Demand for platinum in light duty diesel applications fell by 4%, primarily due to declining production of diesel passenger cars in the two largest markets,

35、 Europe and India. Preliminary estimates suggest that European diesel car output contracted by 6% last year, reflecting an overall decline in light duty production combined with market share losses to both gasoline and battery electric vehicles. In India, the car market was dented by a government cl

36、ampdown on unofficial lending, but the diesel segment was especially hard-hit: output tumbled by an estimated 20%, as domestic automakers began to withdraw diesel models ahead of the implementation of stricter emissions legislation. Diesel cars have been popular in India in recent years, primarily b

37、ecause of a significant price differential between gasoline and diesel fuel, and Indian car companies have offered a wide range of diesel models at attractive price points. However, rising diesel fuel prices have already begun to dampen consumer demand in this segment, while the implementation of Bh

38、arat VI (BSVI) legislation in April 2020 is set to make diesel uncompetitive in smaller vehicle segments. Pre-2020, Indian emissions standards (Bharat IV) could be met with a diesel oxidation catalyst, an old and relatively low-cost technology. The new BSVI standards will require vehicles to be fitt

39、ed with advanced emissions control systems incorporating particulate filters and NOx abatement technology, the cost of which is prohibitive for entry-level vehicles in the Indian market. While stricter emissions limits also have implications for gasoline vehicle pricing, the additional cost of equip

40、ping a gasoline car to BSVI standards is estimated to be less than half that for a diesel vehicle. As a result, it is likely to be difficult to sell entry-level diesel cars in India in future. One Indian automaker has already announced that it intends to exit the diesel segment ahead of BSVI, while

41、others plan to cease production of smaller diesel engines. European diesel car production is also in retreat. Output dropped by 6% in 2019, to a ten-year low of 7.8 million units, representing a 40% share of European light duty vehicle production, down from a peak of over 50% in 2011. Following the

42、dieselgate crisis in 2015, production volumes in Europe were initially rather slow to react, but a combination of changing public attitudes and the 3 Johnson Matthey Pgm Market Report February 2020 Platinum Demand: Autocatalyst 000 oz (Gross) 201720182019 Europe1,691 1,440 1,365 Japan358 337 337 Nor

43、th America325 325 317 China157 143 147 Rest of World677 722 747 Total3,208 2,967 2,913 “European diesel car output contracted by 6% last year, while output in India tumbled by around 20%.” increasing cost of diesel aftertreatment systems is now beginning to have a more significant impact. Diesel car

44、 output is becoming more focused on larger and more expensive vehicles, where the CO2 benefits are greatest and where it is easiest to recoup the high cost of emissions control systems. European automotive platinum demand fell in 2019, reflecting trends in vehicle production. Although more vehicles

45、were equipped to Euro 6d-TEMP standards, this had only a modest impact on average platinum loadings. The implementation of Euro 6d-TEMP began in September 2017 and since then has been progressively applied to a greater percentage of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, requiring these v

46、ehicles to comply with emissions limits under real driving emissions (RDE) conditions as well as in the laboratory (see page 40 for further details of the phases of Euro 6 legislation). RDE legislation specifically targets NOx and particulate emissions and sets conformity factors for these pollutant

47、s, which adjust the nominal emissions limits to allow for measurement error in road testing. These factors will tighten during future phases of regulation. The rollout of Euro 6d-TEMP has resulted in fundamental changes in European diesel aftertreatment technology. In particular, it has stimulated n

48、ear-universal use of selective catalytic reduction (SCR), a non-pgm technology, for diesel NOx control. As recently as 2017, only about half of European diesel cars used SCR these were usually larger vehicles, because of the dimensions of SCR systems and the additional complexity and cost involved. In contrast, smaller vehicles tended to be equipped with platinum-rich NOx storage catalysts (NSCs). However, by 2019 and following the implementation of RDE testing, we e