1、Investing Better, Investing More ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE 2020 With sections written by: aiib.org LEARN MORE AIIB_Official Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Disclaimer: This report is prepared by staff of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), with key contributions from The Economi

2、st Intelligence Unit (EIU) Ltd. The findings and views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of AIIB, its Board of Directors or its members, and are not binding on the government of any country. While every effort has been taken to verify the ac

3、curacy of this information, AIIB does not accept any responsibility or liability for any persons or organizations reliance on this report or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out in this report. Similarly, while every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of its contribution

4、s, The EIU cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out in this report. 2020 AIIB. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO. List of Tables, Figures and Boxes i Foreword iii Acknowledgments v Abbreviations vi 1. Overvie

5、w: Investing Better, Investing More 01 1.1 The Paradox of Infrastructure 02 1.2 Investing Better 05 1.3 Raising Infrastructure Investment to Close the Development Gap 09 Box A: Impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Its Implications for Infrastructure Priorities 11 2. Why Developing Economies Shou

6、ld Invest More in Infrastructure: A Macroeconomic and Growth Perspective 15 2.1 East Asias Experience 17 2.2 Growth Impact of Infrastructure 21 2.3 Policy Discussions and Limitation of Study 22 3. Raising Economic and Social Returns through Design and EngineeringThe EIU 25 3.1 Designing for Connecti

7、vity, Commercial and Civic Uses: West Kowloon Station in Hong Kong, China 27 3.2 Optimizing Through Scale and Automation: Pavagada Solar Park in Karnataka, India 29 3.3 Integrating Infrastructure and Raising Benefits 30 4. Managing Infrastructure CostThe EIU 31 4.1 Benchmarking Road and Water Infras

8、tructure Construction Costs 33 4.2 Why Is It Important to Keep Costs Down? 34 4.3 What Causes High Infrastructure Construction Costs? 35 Box B: Reducing Infrastructure Cost Overruns in India 36 5. Planning for the Future and Avoiding Stranded Assets 37 5.1 What Are Stranded Assets? 39 5.2 Climate-Re

9、lated Physical and Transition Risks 40 Table of Contents 5.3 Moving Toward Paris Alignment Is Important but We Need to Consider All Measures to Avoid Stranded Assets 41 5.4 Measuring Stranding Risk and Avoiding Poor Investment Choices 45 6. Mobilizing Finance: Recent Trends and Giving a Stronger Pus

10、h Toward Sustainable Investment 47 6.1 The Sustainability Challenge 49 6.2 Promising Trends 49 6.3 Motivations for Sustainable Investment 52 6.4 Giving Sustainable Investment a Bigger Push 53 7. Balancing Investment With Debt Sustainability 55 7.1 Higher Public Debts but Generally Healthy Ratings 57

11、 7.2 Specific Debt Vulnerabilities in Some Smaller Economies 59 7.3 New Trends in Borrowing 60 7.4 Improving Policy Frameworks, Mitigating Against Macroeconomic Imbalances 61 Box C: Investing in High-Debt Countries: Two Case Studies 63 8. Infrastructure Finance Market Overview (2019-2020)The EIU 65

12、8.1 Decline in Private-Sector Infrastructure ActivityMore Incidental Than Structural 67 8.2 Asia on the Path to More Sustainable Energy 70 8.3 Investing Better With Innovative Capital Structures 72 8.3.1 Institutional Investors Pension Funds 72 8.3.2 Bond Finance 73 8.3.3 Asset Securitization 74 Box

13、 D: Preliminary Analysis of Rising Protectionism in the Renewable Energy Sector 75 9. Country Write-Ups 79 9.1 Bangladesh 81 9.2 China 85 9.3 India 91 9.4 Indonesia 95 9.5 Pakistan 99 9.6 Philippines 103 9.7 Russia 107 9.8 Turkey 111 Photo Credit Vherliann Appendixes 115 Appendix 1: Regression Frame

14、work (Chapter 2) 115 Appendix 2: Literature Review of Some Meta-Analysis Studies on Environment, Social and Governance and Corporate Financial Performance (Chapter 6) 116 Appendix 3: Additional Acknowledgments 118 References 119 Endnotes 125 i Tables List of Tables, Figures and Boxes Figures 1 Devel

15、opment and Infrastructure Quality in Asia 03 2 Change in Infrastructure Investment and Public Debt 08 3 Infrastructure Investment as Percentage of GDP, 2017 09 4 Infrastructure Spending as Percentage of GDP for Select Asian Economies (19602017) 17 5 Scatter Plot of GDP Growth and Infrastructure Inve

16、stment as Percent of GDP 18 6 Comparing High Versus Low Growth Periods and Infrastructure Investment as Percentages of GDP for Select Asian Economies 19 7 Infrastructure and Non-Infrastructure Coefficients Using OECD Dataset 21 8 Infrastructure and Non-Infrastructure Coefficients Using IMF Dataset 2

17、1 9 RoadBLOC Benchmarking of Road Construction Costs Across Cities 33 10 WaterBLOC Benchmarking of Road Construction Costs Across Cities 34 11 Infrastructure Costs Are Negatively Correlated With Private Sector Investment 34 12 Examples of Climate-Related Physical Risk Impact on Financial Risks 40 13

18、 Examples of Transition Risk Impact on Financial Risks 40 14 Global Carbon Lock-In Curve for the Power Sector by Fuel Type 42 15 ASEAN, China and India Planned Power Assets on a Global Carbon Lock-In Curve for the Power Sector 44 16 Capital Allocation of Large Pension Funds to Green Investment Asset

19、s, 2013-2017 50 17 Global Sustainable Investing Asset Allocation, 2018 50 18 Green Bond Market 50 19 Summary of Research Findings on the Relationship between ESG and CFP 52 20 Public Debt Among AIIB Members 56 21 Average Sovereign Credit Ratings 56 22 Outlook in Credit Ratings 57 23 Net Upgrades of

20、Sovereign Credit Ratings of AIIB Regional Members 58 24 Gross Public Financing Needs 58 25 Increase in the Public Debt, 2011-2019 59 26 Public Debt, 2019 59 27 Share of FX Debt 61 28 Value of Closed Private Transactions in Asia, 2015-2019 67 29 Sectoral Share in Total 2019 Decline Value 67 30 Closed

21、 Infrastructure Transactions in Syndicated Loan Market, 2015-2019 68 31 A Decline in Closed Private Transactions Alongside an Increase in the Project Pipeline, 2018-2019 68 32 Value of Open and Announced Private Transactions in Asia, 2015-2019 69 1 Details of Bayfront Securitization Transaction 74 2

22、 Range of Sustainable Finance Terms 117 ii 33 Value of Closed Power Sector Private Transactions in Asia, 2015-2019 70 34 Value of Open and Announced Power Sector Private Transactions in Asia, 2015-2019 70 35 Value and Count of Closed Transactions by SectorBangladesh 83 36 Value and Count of Open and

23、 Announced Transactions by SectorBangladesh 83 37 Value and Count of Closed Transactions by SectorChina 87 38 Value and Count of Open and Announced Transactions by SectorChina 88 39 Value and Count of Closed Transactions by SectorIndia 93 40 Value and Count of Open and Announced Transactions by Sect

24、orIndia 94 41 Value and Count of Closed Transactions by SectorIndonesia 97 42 Value and Count of Open and Announced Transactions by SectorIndonesia 98 43 Value and Count of Closed Transactions by SectorPakistan 101 44 Value and Count of Open and Announced Transactions by SectorPakistan 102 45 Value

25、and Count of Closed Transactions by SectorPhilippines 105 46 Value and Count of Open and Announced Transactions by SectorPhilippines 105 47 Value and Count of Closed Transactions by SectorRussia 109 48 Value and Count of Open and Announced Transactions by SectorRussia 109 49 Value and Count of Close

26、d Transactions by SectorTurkey 113 50 Value and Count of Open and Announced Transactions by SectorTurkey 114 Tables in the Boxes B.1 EIU Business Environment Rating 36 B.2 Percent of Projects With a Time Overrun 36 Boxes A Impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Its Implications for Infrastructure

27、Priorities 11 B Reducing Infrastructure Cost Overruns in India 36 C Investing in High-Debt Countries: Two Case Studies 63 D Preliminary Analysis of Rising Protectionism in the Renewable Energy Sector 75 Figures in the Boxes A.1 GDP Growth and Public Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF-GG) as a Perce

28、ntage of GDP 12 A.2 Correlation Between Quality of Infrastructure and Health Security 13 A.3 AIIB Regional Members With High Aging Population and Old Age Dependency Ratio 13 B.1 Improvements in the Ease of Doing Business and Percent Cost Overrun for Infrastructure Projects in India, 2015-2019 36 D.1

29、 Number of Non-Tariff Measures on Imports of Renewable Energy Goods 75 D.2 Average Most Favored Nation (MFN) Applied Tarrifs, 2000-2017 76 D.3 Tariff Rates on Renewable Energy Vis-Vis Non-Agricultural Products 76 D.4 Renewable Energy Sector: Import Flows and Non-Tariff Measures 77 D.5 Solar and Wind

30、 Sectors: Import Flows and Non-Tariff Measures 77 Foreword iii I am delighted to see the release of our second Asian Infrastructure Finance report. 2019 was a challenging year for the world and for Asia, with growth decelerating and impediments to investment mounting. Indeed, private sector infrastr

31、ucture investment saw a decline in 2019. The start of 2020 was also difficult, given the unexpected outbreak of COVID-19. The global economy has taken a hit, but I am confident of its recovery once the necessary public health measures are taken. The outbreak underscores the importance of infrastruct

32、ure development. A countrys readiness to cope with epidemics is correlated with its infrastructure. This is especially true in the context of megatrends such as urbanization and increased trade connectivity which will allow the fast transmission of pathogens. Without proper public health infrastruct

33、ure to provide clean water and sanitation, healthcare, and healthcare-related information and communications technology (ICT), developing economies will remain vulnerable to such outbreaks. After the COVID-19 crisis, the focus will be to assist developing economies invest in adequate infrastructure

34、for development, as well as to prevent and mitigate the impact of future epidemics. Infrastructure does not guarantee development, but there can be no development without infrastructure. Bottlenecks in infrastructure still constitute major constraints for many developing countries, and they must be

35、removed or eased considerably before these countries can hope to grow and meet their sustainable development goals. Infrastructure serves as the bedrock for sustained growth, which provides an economy with resilience to withstand external shocks and the ability to address climate change risks, prote

36、ct the environment and biodiversity, and meet citizens aspirations for a better life. The theme of this second publication “Investing Better, Investing More” captures such logical thinking. I would emphasize that the report is not suggesting a more-is- better approach. Rather, it argues that we must

37、 first get the conditions right to allow better investment choices, which will then allow more public and private investments to flow. Among other things, investing better means ensuring good project design and implementation to improve the economic returns of projects, upholding high environmental,

38、 social and governance (ESG) standards throughout the entire life cycle of the projects financed, planning for the future and reducing the likelihood of stranded assets. Investing better also requires that policy makers get supportive macroeconomic and regulatory policies right and select good proje

39、cts that integrate toward iv together to achieve the envisioned outcomes becomes magnified. Circumstances may change, but the mission remains the same. Through the economic cycle and through difficult environments, AIIB will work with partners to stay the course investing better, investing more. dev

40、elopment. These ideas are explored in various pieces of analytical work, with key findings presented in this publication. I also make special mention of debt sustainability, which has been a cause for general concern and thus called forth much discussion. While we must keep high indebtedness under c

41、lose watch, we should not simply scrap essential investment in infrastructure required for long-term growth. Debt burdens can be eased when investments generate revenues, directly or indirectly, and pave the path for long-term growth. There are success stories in the developing world of judicious bo

42、rrowing and investment leading to robust and sustained growth for decades on end. It is important to note that while certain economies are grappling with tough challenges and debt vulnerabilities, the analysis presented in this report does not suggest a systemic debt risk. There is ample financial a

43、nd policy space for the international community, private sector and governments to continue investing in a sound manner. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is now striding into its fifth year of operation in 2020. Our Bank was founded with an ambitious mission to improve economic and so

44、cial development in Asia and beyond through investment in infrastructure and other productive sectors. As global conditions become more complex, the importance of working Jin Liqun President and Chair of the Board, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank v Acknowledgments The following are researchers

45、and contributors from AIIB, The EIU and external experts and organizations: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Research and Analytical Dr. Jang Ping Thia (Head, Economics Unit) Dr. Xuehui Han (Senior Economist) Mr. Marcin Sasin (Senior Economist) Mr. David Morgado (Senior Energy Policy Specialist)

46、 Mr. Calvin Quek (Senior Communications Officer) Mr. Xiao Wang (Economist) Ms. Anne Ong Lopez (Young Professional) Ms. Jiaqi Su (Data Administrator and Analyst) And key contributions from Dr. Abhijit Sen Gupta (Senior Economist) Ms. Irem Kizilca (Economist), Report Coordinator Mr. Aalok Pandey (Econ

47、omic Associate) Mr. Jingyu Gao (Economic Analyst) Ms. Xinyu Kong (Data Administrator) Ms. Lindsay Mack (Senior Communications Officer) Dr. Leonardo Magno (Senior Creative Officer) Atty. Maricris Jan Tobias (Senior Editorial Specialist) Mr. Luca Feliziani (Graphic Designer) Ms. Ruihan Li (Graphic Des

48、igner) Mr. Oliver Barron (Senior Executive Officer) Mr. Philip Nelson (Executive Officer) With advice and guidance from Dr. Joachim von Amsberg (Vice President, Policy and Strategy) Sir Danny Alexander (Vice President and Corporate Secretary) Dr. Martin Kimmig (Chief Risk Officer) Ms. Laurel Ostfiel

49、d (Director General, Communications) Ms. Elaine Sun (Senior Advisor to the President for Operations) The EIU Dr. Simon Baptist (Chief Economist) Ms. Minakshi Barman (Public Policy Consultant) Mr. William Davis (Public Policy Consultant) Ms. Anjali Shukla (Public Policy Analyst) Ms. Divya Sharma Nag (Public Policy Analyst) Mr. Christopher Clague (Managing Editor) External Organizations Prof. Craig Langston, Centre for Comparative Construction Research, Bond University Dr. Ben Caldecott, Oxford University Mr. Matthew