1、October 2020 Global Banking Practice The 2020 McKinsey Global Payments Report 2The 2020 McKinsey Global Payments Report The public health crisis triggered by COVID-19 has had an impact on nearly all aspects of daily life for people across the globe, and has put the world economy on an uncertain foot

2、ing. For the payments industry, the pandemic and its consequences have accelerated a series of existing trends in both consumer and business behaviors, and introduced new developments, such as a restructuring of both supply chains and cross-border trade. Ongoing shifts toward e-commerce, digital pay

3、ments (including contactless), instant payments, and cash displacement have all been significantly boosted in the past six months. And while a degree of reversion to past behavior is likely for some of these shifts, the overall trajectory for these trends has received a strong push forward. Overall,

4、 the crisis is compressing a half-decades worth of change into less than one yearand in areas that are typically slow to evolve: customer behavior, economic models, and payments operating models. As with most structural shifts, challenges will inevitably arise. The impact of the crisis has not been

5、consistent across sectors or geographies, of course. Travel and entertainment, which had been among the most advanced e-commerce sectors, was hit particularly hard and faces an uncertain path to recovery. Payments providers in regions that have lagged in digitization, meanwhile, in many cases posses

6、s greater potential for revenue increases in the new environment. On the other hand, a protracted period of low interest rates, which began before the current crisis, will pressure payments revenues, as will a persistent slowdown in economic activity. This is the context in which we release our annu

7、al report on the global payments industry. As always, these insights are informed by McKinseys Global Payments Map and by continuing dialogue with practitioners throughout the payments ecosystem. Given the impact of the changes and challenges in 2020, however, we are taking a different lens to our a

8、nalysis, focusing more on the current moment and on the future, than on examining past growth. Our first chapter briefly tells the story of 2019a solid year with broad-based revenue growthbut focuses primarily on current developments and takes a forward-looking view of the payments landscape. It als

9、o details the actions we believe payments providers will need to take to weather the pandemic and position themselves for the “next normal.” Our “now-cast” analysis of 2020 paints a contrast between the first and second halves of the year namely, an estimated 22 percent payments revenue decline in t

10、he first half will be softened somewhat by stronger performance in the second half. Still, we expect full-year 2020 global payments revenue to be roughly 7 percent lower than it was in 2019a $140-billion decline roughly equal to recent years annual gains, and 11 to 13 percent below our pre- pandemic

11、 projection. Beyond this, in some countries and segments, the likely sustained increase in digital penetration could result in a recovery of revenue pools to levels matching our pre-COVID-19 expectations for 2021. In following chapters, we explore four areas of payments we consider critical to achie

12、ving success in the context of accelerated change. Like many aspects of payments, the merchant-acquiring business was already undergoing significant transformation. Consolidation had driven scale economy imperatives, and non-bank market entrants were gaining inroads with underserved verticals. Our e

13、xperts detail the need to redefine acquiring offerings to encompass a full suite of value-added services extending well beyond payments settlementincluding fraud controls and cart optimization for the fast-growing e-commerce segment. In a separate chapter we look at the specific opportunity for smal

14、l- and medium-size enterprises, a segment that has historically been expensive to serve for large incumbents, but which has been the focus of many fintech attackers and is well overdue for a closer look. Supply chain finance has long been considered to be a source of untapped value, but unlike other

15、 payments sectors, has struggled to develop enough momentum to address its structural challenges. Foreword 3The 2020 McKinsey Global Payments Report Alessio Botta Leader, Europe Payments Practice Phil Bruno Co-leader, North America Payments Practice Reet Chaudhuri Leader, Asia Payments Practice Mari

16、e-Claude Nadeau Co-leader, North America Payments Practice Gustavo Tayar Leader, Latin America Payments Practice Carlos Trascasa Leader, Global Payments Practice Given an expected increased focus on working capital, a step change in digital adoption at scale, and the potential geographic re-shufflin

17、g of roughly $4 trillion of cross-border supply chain spending in the next five yearsthe value embedded in supply- chain finance will become even more attractive. The question is whether it will be enough to spur a long- anticipated transformation. Finally, in this overview of global payments, we lo

18、ok at a challenge many established payments providers are facingthe need to transform the operating model to meet the growing imperatives for efficiency, scale, modularity (e.g., Payments-as- a-Service), and global interoperability. With many banks likely unwilling to commit the hundreds of millions

19、 of investment dollars needed to modernize existing payments infrastructure, we outline various paths worth considering before more focused players can establish an insurmountable advantage. We hope you find the insights in these pages thought-provoking and valuable as you navigate these uncertain t

20、imes. McKinseys Global Banking Practice leaders would like to thank the following colleagues for their contributions to this report: Maria Albonico, Fabio Cristofoletti, Vaibhav Dayal, Olivier Denecker, Nunzio Digiacomo, Puneet Dikshit, Alberto Farroni, Diana Goldshtein, Reinhard Hll, Reema Jain, Ba

21、anee Luthra, Tobias Lundberg, Yaniv Lushinsky, Pavan Kumar Masanam, Albion Murati, Tamas Nagy, Marc Niederkorn, Nikki Shah, Lit Hau Tan, and Jonathan Zell. 4The 2020 McKinsey Global Payments Report For the global payments sector, the events of 2020 have reset expectations and significantly accelerat

22、ed several existing trends. The public health crisis and its many repercussionsamong them, government measures to protect citizens and rapid changes in consumer behaviorchanged the operating environment for businesses, large and small, worldwide. For the payments sector, global revenues declined by

23、an estimated 22 percent in the first six months of the year compared to the same period in 2019. We expect revenues to recover (only to a degree) in the second half of 2020, ending 7 percent lower than full-year 2019. Over the past several years, payments revenues had grown by roughly 7 percent annu

24、ally, which means this crisis leaves revenues 11 to 13 percent below our prepandemic revenue projection for 2020. Given the impact of COVID-19 on the operating environment, we are diverging from our usual approach of delivering perspectives on the current years global payments landscape relative to

25、the prior year. Instead, we focus primarily on the state of the payments ecosystem in 2020 and explore the actions payments providers need to take to compete effectively in the “next normal.” The insights in this report are informed by McKinseys proprietary Global Payments Map, which for over 20 yea

26、rs has provided a granular, data- based view of the industry landscape. A half decade of change in a few months For global payments, 2020 stands in dramatic contrast to the year before, which was a relatively stable year. Global revenues grew at nearly 5 percent in 2019, bringing total global paymen

27、ts revenue to just under $2 trillion (Exhibit 1). Payments also continued to grow faster than overall banking revenues, increasing its share to just under 40 percent, compared with roughly one-third only five years earlier. Any stability was quickly disrupted in early 2020 by changing geopolitics co

28、upled with reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic, both public (physical- distancing measures, limits on business activity) and private (anticipatory and causal shifts in consumer and commercial behavior). As a result of the public- health crisis, payments revenues in the first six months of 2020 contra

29、cted by an estimated 22 percent (roughly $220 billion) relative to the first six months of 2019. We expect full-year 2020 global payments revenue to be roughly $140 billion lower than in 2019a decline of about 7 percent from 2019a change equal in size to prior years annual gains, which leaves revenu

30、es 11 to 13 percent below our prepandemic revenue projection for 2020. What we already know Once COVID-19 moved from a local outbreak to a global pandemic, many governments moved to protect their citizens, leading to lockdowns with various degrees of limitation. The immediate consequence was, of cou

31、rse, a steep reduction in discretionary spending and a severe demand- side shock, along with reductions in cash usage. Discretionary spending initially sank by 40 percent globally. The impact was especially great on the travel and entertainment category, which was off 80 to 90 percent. While some ca

32、tegories of spending The accelerating winds of change in global payments The COVID-19 crisis is having a significant and widespread effect on global payments across sectors. The most striking and potentially lasting impact is an accelerating pace of change in the industry. Philip Bruno Olivier Denec

33、ker Marc Niederkorn 5The 2020 McKinsey Global Payments Report rebounded, consumers well-documented shift from the point of sale (POS) to digital commerce accounts for the reduced use of cash. Overall, in retail, the impact was not a decline but a shift in buying behavior. In the first six months of

34、the year, consumers spent $347 billion online with US retailers, up 30 percent from the same period in 2019corresponding to six times the annualized 2019 growth rate of online retail.1 Amazons second- quarter 2020 numbers recorded 40 percent year-over-year growth, boosted in particular by the tripli

35、ng of grocery sales. In Europe, differences in shopping behavior between geographies were strongly reduced and differences between age groups eroded as many consumers (in particular, older shoppers) turned to online shopping for the first time. Consequently, all forms of electronic peer-to-peer and

36、consumer-to-business payments have been 1 Fareeha Ali, “Charts: How the coronavirus is changing ecommerce,” Digital Commerce 360, August 25, 2020, . 2 “Payments and cash withdrawals,” Swiss National Bank, data.snb.ch, last modified September 21, 2020. 3 Retail payment: May 2020,” Reserve Bank of Aus

37、tralia, rba.gov.au, July 7, 2020. boosted. In many regions, this has mostly benefited debit cards, which typically align with lower-value transactions and are a logical cash substitute for contact-averse consumers. Switzerland reported an increase in share of debit-card spending from 65 percent to 7

38、2 percent between January and May 2020,2 mostly at the expense of cash. Higher limits for contactless payments also triggered rising adoption rates across the globe, making inroads beyond debits typical domain of smaller-value transactions. For credit cards, the picture is more nuanced; consumers in

39、 certain geographies seemed to be paying off credit-card balances in preparation for challenging times ahead. In Australia, for example, credit-card share among total card spending fell by five percentage points between February and June 2020, in favor of debit cards.3 In Asia, however, alternative

40、payments, such as instant and mobile payments, grew, while credit cards retained their strong incumbent position supporting Note: Figures may not sum to listed totals, because of rounding. Source: McKinsey Global Payments Map Global payments revenue, $ trillion 2010 0.9 0.3 0.4 2014 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.4

41、0.5 2018 0.2 0.5 0.9 2019 0.3 2.0 0.3 1.9 2020E 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.9 7.4% Share of banking revenues 28%33%38%39% North America EMEA Asia-Pacifi c Latin America Current estimate Pre-COVID-19 estimate 1.9 2.12 -7% 0.26 Exhibit 1 McKinsey expects global payments revenues to end 2020 down 7% compared to 2019

42、. 6The 2020 McKinsey Global Payments Report e-commerce and POS transactions. Logically, given the steep reduction of in-person purchases, cash transactions and ATM usage declinedthe latter after an initial wave of withdrawals by anxious consumers. Germany and the United States each saw spikes in cas

43、h withdrawals in the days leading up to lockdowns. The fear of contracting COVID-19 through high- traffic ATMs and, in some cases, the refusal of merchants to accept cash (often despite legal obligations) nudged consumers toward electronic payment options to complete purchases. ATM usage fell by 47

44、percent in April 2020 in India, while the United Kingdom experienced 46 percent declines per month on average from March to July 2020. By the end of 2020, we expect a shift of four to five percentage points in the share of global payment transactions executed via cashdown from 69 4 “Thousands of ATM

45、s in Australia removed, branches closed due to coronavirus,” ATM Marketplace, August 17, 2020, . percent in 2019propelled by evolving behavior in both mature and emerging markets (Exhibit 2). This is equivalent to four to five times the annual decrease in cash usage observed over the last few years.

46、 The reduced use of cash benefits banks overall: the cost of cash handling exceeds cash- related revenue inflows, and electronic payments generate incremental revenue. The pandemic has accelerated the move from “physical” to “virtual” banking. Banks in multiple geographies are closing branches (or i

47、n some cases will not reopen branches they closed due to the pandemic), as well as ATMs. In Australia, the top four banks have removed 2,150 ATM terminals and closed 175 bank branches since June.4 These accelerated behavior changes in response to the COVID-19 crisis caused a fundamental shift in ado

48、ption of technologies, such as real-time Source: McKinsey Global Payments Map Cash usage by country Percent of cash used in total transactions by volume, % 95 86 99 100 100 93 97 79 66 59 51 55 53 56 52 Mexico Indonesia Sweden Argentina Brazil Malaysia Japan China United Kingdom India Korea Singapor

49、e 2010 United States Finland Netherlands Emerging markets Mature markets 87 74 41 89 96 72 86 54 34 39 28 23 24 9 14 2020E Exhibit 2 COVID-19 will likely lead to a further decline in cash usage. 7The 2020 McKinsey Global Payments Report account-to-account payment infrastructures, that had been developed over recent years. Investments in instant payments have begun to reap greater benefits, both in POS and e-commerce usage of instant solutions. The trend comes in response to customer expectations for speed, price differences, and greater adoption of customer-facing app