1、Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update Wellness in Worrying Times Developing Asia has suff ered as the COVID-19 pandemic persists. Growth, trade, and tourism collapsed in2020, leading to the regions fi rst economic contraction in nea rly 6 decades. Governments across Asia acted quickly to contain the

2、 virus and its economic eff ects, and signs of bottoming out have now appeared. Infl ation remains benign, constrained by depressed demand and declining food prices. A prolonged pandemic is the primary downside risk to the outlook. Persistent or renewed outbreaks and a return to stringent containmen

3、t could possibly derail the recovery and trigger fi nancial turmoil. Recoverydepends on measures to address the health crisis and on continued policy support. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of wellness, both physical and mental. Wellnessthe pursuit of holistic health and well-beingis a

4、component of the UNs Sustainable Development Goals. This report evaluates the state of wellness in Asia, documents how the wellness economy is a large and growing part of the regions economy, and discusses how policymakers can promote wellness by creating healthy living environments, encouraging phy

5、sical activity and healthy diets, and enhancing workplace wellness. About the Asian Development Bank ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacifi c, whilesustaining its eff orts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by

6、 68 members 49 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. ISBN 978-92-9262-155-1 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines w

7、ww.adb.org ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK 2020 UPDATE Wellness in Worrying Times SEPTEMBER 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK 2020 UPDATE WELLNESS IN WORRYING TIMES ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK SEPTEMBER 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK 2020 UPDATE WELLNESS IN WORRYING TIMES Creative Commons A

8、ttribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) 2020 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2020. ISBN 978-92-9262-361-6 (print); 978-92-9262-362-3 (electronic); 978-92-9

9、262-363-0 (ebook) ISSN 1655-4809 (print) Publication Stock No. FLS200256-3 DOI: http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/FLS200256-3 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or

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14、oduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish toobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these ter

15、ms, or for permission to use theADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. ADB recognizes “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong, China; “China” as the Peoples Republic of China; “Korea” and “SouthKorea”

16、 as the Republic of Korea; and “Vietnam” as Viet Nam. Cover design by Anthony Victoria. Cover artwork by Atsuko Yamagata/2020. Contents Forewordiv Acknowledgmentsv Definitions and assumptionsvi Abbreviationsvii ADO 2020 UpdateHighlightsix Part 1A precarious path to recovery1 Recent developments: Asi

17、a falters as COVID-19 spreads5 Outlook: Partial recovery after contraction in 202024 Risks: Looming threats in an unsettled new normal34 Annex: Global economy plunges as pandemic rages42 Part 2Wellness in worrying times53 A pandemic brings wellness to the fore56 Contours of wellness in Asia63 Holist

18、ic pathway to physical wellness73 Leveraging Asian traditions for mental wellness94 Wellness for happiness and inclusion111 Policies for physical and mental wellness117 Part 3Economic trends and prospects in developing Asia139 Central Asia141 East Asia154 South Asia168 Southeast Asia193 The Pacific2

19、25 Statistical appendix241 Foreword Asias path to recovery remains precarious half a year into the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, the regional economy will contract this year as the virus continues to spread and as ill effects linger from border restrictions, quarantines, and stay-at-home orders.

20、 Deterioration is far more widespread than during the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, reaching every corner of Asia and the Pacific. Conditions are also grim for our major trade partners, with GDP in the euro area and the US likewise stumbling and making it hard for our region to recover. The su

21、stained spread of COVID-19 remains the major risk to economies around the world. A prolonged pandemic and global slowdown will severely harm not just those economies struggling with significant outbreaks at home, but also those that depend on tourism, commodity exports, or other forms of external de

22、mand. Softer demand and falling food and fuel prices will ease the inflation burden on most Asian consumers, but supply disruption stemming from mobility and transport restrictions may pose particular inflation risk in some economies. This merits close monitoring. In these worrying times, maintainin

23、g physical and mental health becomes even more essential than usual. We believe wellness is critical for post-pandemic recovery especially in Asia and the Pacific. Wellness not only maintains happy and productive societies but can be an important driver of growth, tapping into our wealth of Asian we

24、llness traditions. Indeed, the provision of wellness has become an important segment of the Asian economy, generating more than a tenth of regional output and growing in recent years by over 10% annually. Wellness policies to boost physical and mental health should be inclusive to benefit the whole

25、spectrum of Asian society. Policies should create healthy living environments, encourage physical activity and healthy diets, and enhance workplace wellness. With this Update to the Asian Development Outlook 2020, we in the Asian Development Bank sincerely strive once more to provide to policy maker

26、s in Asia and the Pacific a unique service that combines astute economic analyses for the nearterm with well-considered and thought-provoking policy advice for the medium and longterm. In these uncertain times, as regional governments steer their economies toward recovery, we hope our insights and r

27、ecommendations will help to make each regional economy and society even more resilient, innovative, and inclusive. MASATSUGU ASAKAWA President Asian Development Bank Acknowledgments Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update was prepared by staff of Asian Development Bank (ADB) regional departments and r

28、esident missions under the guidance of the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department (ERCD). Representatives of these departments met regularly as the Regional Economic Outlook Task Force to coordinate and develop consistent forecasts for the region. Economists in ERCD, led by Abdul Abia

29、d, director of the Macroeconomics Research Division, coordinated the production of the publication, assisted by EdithLavia. Technical and research support was provided by ShielaCamingue- Romance, Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, Pilipinas Quising, Dennis Sorino, Priscille Villanueva, and Mai Lin Villaruel. A

30、dditional research support was provided by Emmanuel Alano, Rosa Mia Lasam Arao, Christian Regie Jabagat, JessonPagaduan, Reizle Jade Platitas, Rene Cris Rivera, and Michael Timbang. Inputsprovided by Liming Chen, Jesus Felipe, Rana Hasan, and Aiko Kikkawa Takenaka are much appreciated. Economic edit

31、orial advisors Robert Boumphrey, Eric Clifton, JoshuaGreene, HenryMa, Srinivasa Madhur, Richard Niebuhr, and RezaVaez-Zadeh made substantive contributions to the country chapters and regional outlook. A team of economists prepared the theme chapter, led by Donghyun Park, principal economist of the M

32、acroeconomics Research Division of ERCD. Inadditionto contributors named in the byline and authors of background papers, the theme chapter benefited from valuable feedback and inputs from AbdulAbiad, BennoFerrarini, SoonChan Hong, Manbar Singh Khadka, UtsavKumar, TsheringLhamo, ShaliniMittal, Masato

33、 Nakane, Dominik Peschel, and LeiLeiSong. Support and guidance from Yasuyuki Sawada, Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr., and EdimonGinting throughout production is gratefully acknowledged. Specialthanksare due to former ADBpresident Takehiko Nakao for initially suggesting the theme. MargaritaDebuque- Gonzales

34、provided editorial advice on the theme chapter and the regional outlook. Map illustrations were created by Abraham Villanueva and Angel Villarez. Authors who contributed the sections are bylined in each chapter. Thesubregional coordinators were Kenji Takamiya, Lilia Aleksanyan, and FatimaCatacutan f

35、or Central Asia; Akiko Terada-Hagiwara for East Asia; LeiLeiSong and Lani Garnace for South Asia; Thiam Hee Ng and Dulce Zara for Southeast Asia; and Rommel Rabanal and Cara Tinio for the Pacific. Peter Fredenburg advised on ADB style and English usage. Alvin Tubio handled typesetting and graphics g

36、eneration, in which he was assisted by Heili Ann Bravo, Elenita Pura, and Angel Love Roque. Art direction for the cover was by Anthony Victoria, with artwork by Atsuko Yamagata. Critical support for printing and publishing the report was provided by the Printing Services Unit of the ADB Office of Ad

37、ministrative Services and by the publications and web teams of the ADB Department of Communications. Rhia Bautista-Piamonte and Fermirelyn Cruz provided administrative and secretarial support. Colleagues in the Department of Communications, including Vicky Tan, David Kruger, and Ami Takagawa planned

38、 and coordinated the dissemination of Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update; and Kevin Peter Nellies, Ma. Melissa Enojado, and Ralph Romero redesigned the landing page of the ADO and its background papers. Definitions and assumptions The economies discussed in Asian Development Outlook2020 Update ar

39、e classified by major analytic or geographic group. Forthepurposes of this publication, thefollowing apply: Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) comprises Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, a

40、nd Viet Nam. In this report, the ASEAN-5 are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and VietNam. Developing Asia comprises the 46 members of the AsianDevelopment Bank listed below. Newly industrialized economies comprise Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China.

41、Central Asia comprises Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, theKyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. East Asia comprises Hong Kong, China; Mongolia; the Peoples Republic of China; theRepublic of Korea; and Taipei,China. South Asia comprises Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,

42、India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Southeast Asia comprises Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and VietNam. The Pacific comprises the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Mi

43、cronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Unless otherwise specified, the symbol “$” and the word “dollar” refer to USdollars. A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in th

44、e Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update: Theestablished policies of national authorities are maintained. Realeffective exchange rates remain constant at their average from 20July to 28 August 2020. The average price of oil is $42.50/barrel in 2020 and $50.00/barrel in 2021. The 6-month London interb

45、ank offered rate (Libor) for US dollar deposits averages 0.4% in 2020 and 0.1% in 2021, the European Central Bank refinancing rate averages 0.0% in both years, and the Bank of Japan overnight call rate averages 0.1% in both years. Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update is generally based on informati

46、on available to 31 August2020. Abbreviations ADBAsian Development Bank ADOAsian Development Outlook ASEANAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations COVID-19Coronavirus Disease 2019 FSMFederated States of Micronesia FYfiscal year GDPgross domestic product GFCglobal financial crisis of 20082009 Hhalf ICTi

47、nformation and communication technology IMFInternational Monetary Fund GTFgarments, travel goods, and footwear GVAgross value added Lao PDR Lao Peoples Democratic Republic LiborLondon interbank offered rate M2money that includes cash and highly liquid accounts M3broad money that adds time accounts t

48、o M2 mbdmillion barrels per day MSMEmicro, small, or medium-sized enterprise NCDnoncommunicable disease NIEnewly industrialized economy NPLnonperforming loan OECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OPECOrganization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PMIpurchasing managers index

49、PNGPapua New Guinea PRCPeoples Republic of China Qquarter ROKRepublic of Korea R(t)reproduction number US, USAUnited States of America Economic prospects in developing Asia have worsened. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to disrupt global economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts have been downgraded from Asian Development Outlook 2020. The region is now expected to contract by 0.7% in 2020, the first regional recession in nearly 6 decades. GDP is projected to grow by 6.8% in 2021, butthis will still leave it smaller than forecast before COVID-