1、Fast Forward into the Future Global Payments 2020 SWIFT is a global member owned cooperative and the worlds leading provider of secure financial messaging services. We provide our community with a platform for messaging and standards for communicating, and we offer products and services to facilitat

2、e access and integration, identification, analysis and regulatory compliance. Our messaging platform, products and services connect more than 11,000 banking and securities organizations, market infrastructures and corporate customers in more than 200 countries and territories. While SWIFT does not h

3、old funds or manage accounts on behalf of customers, we enable our global community of users to communicate securely, exchanging standardized financial messages in a reliable way, thereby supporting global and local financial flows, as well as trade and commerce all around the world. Headquartered i

4、n Belgium, SWIFTs international governance and oversight reinforces the neutral, global character of its cooperative structure. SWIFTs global office network ensures an active presence in all the major financial centers. Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle

5、their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. Today, we help clients with total transformationinspiring complex change, enabling organizations to grow, building competitive advantage, and driving bottom

6、-line impact. To succeed, organizations must blend digital and human capabilities. Our diverse, global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives to spark change. BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting along with technology and design, c

7、orporate and digital venturesand business purpose. We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization, generating results that allow our clients to thrive. Global Payments 2020 October 2020 | Boston Consulting Group YANN SNANT MARKUS AMPENB

8、ERGER ANKIT MATHUR INDERPREET BATRA JEAN CLAVEL STEFAN DAB ALEXANDER DRUMMOND SUSHIL MALHOTRA STANISLAS NOWICKI PRATEEK ROONGTA MICHAEL STRAU ALEJANDRO TFELI LVARO VACA FAST FORWARD INTO THE FUTURE 2 | Fast Forward into the Future CONTENTS 3 INTRODUCTION 4 MARKET OUTLOOK A Shifting Landscape Regiona

9、l Outlook 11 SECURING FUTURE GROWTH IN RETAIL PAYMENTS How Issuers Can Prepare for a Healthy Recovery How Merchant Acquirers Can Derisk and Reboot How Merchants Can Use Payments to Drive Efficiency and Growth 17 SOLVING PAIN POINTS IN WHOLESALE PAYMENTS A Growing Role for Transaction Banking Solutio

10、ns Fierce Competition Across the Value Chain Strategies to Drive Differentiation 23 WINNING THE FUTURE Rebalance the Product and Customer Portfolio Pursue Strategic M BCG analysis. Exhibit 8 | Key Challenges for the Payments Ecosystem Boston Consulting Group X Swift | 25 to pull back will require le

11、aders to update their risk management operating models. Payments players that strengthen their risk- rating and modeling techniques, collections practices, and risk governance policies can better protect their business and their customers. Accelerate Digital Transformation While most payments player

12、s had digital transformation on their agendas prior to the pandemic, the crisis has accelerated the time- line significantly because the brick-and-mor- tar channels that players relied on for new business have become ineffective. No-regret moves such as promoting digital self-service, greater automa

13、tion, and seamless integration of payments into customer and corporate journeys can help incumbents address severe pain points quickly while generating savings to fund their longer transformation journeys. Front-end improvements are not enough. To ensure continuity of service and optimal cost perfor

14、mance, leaders must take an end-to- end view. C rises often force companies to revisit how they do business. COVID-19 is no dif- ferent. Payments leaders have greater permis- sion (and urgency) to make bold moves that can secure their businesss long-term prosper- ity. But whats unusual about COVID-1

15、9 is its speed. By accelerating changes that tradition- ally take a decade to materialize in the pay- ments industry, the pandemic and its after- math have created a window for the most talented companies to leapfrog the competi- tion, gain scale, and deliver customer impact. That ticking clock mean

16、s that payments play- ers that act decisively now will have a clear advantage over the rest of the field. 26 | Fast Forward into the Future APPENDIX ABOUT OUR METHODOLOGY The ultimate impact of COVID-19 on pay- ments will depend on the scale and duration of the pandemic and on the various govern- me

17、nt and policy interventions intended to mitigate the economic crisis. Although pre- dicting the precise economic impact of the pandemic is difficult, we believe that three scenarios for economic output are plausible, each with different implications for payments players. (See the exhibit.) Quick Reb

18、ound. A moderate downturn that restores the global economy to its precrisis growth path. This will occur only if COVID-19 has been brought under control in most major economies and unemployment as well as consumer confidence return to precrisis levels. Slow Recovery. A deeper downturn with a recover

19、y approaching a U-shape. A higher Quick reboundSlow recovery Deeper impact 2019 GDP level GDP level Levels Growth Pre- COVID-19 growth GDP growth GDP level 2019 GDP level GDP level 2019 GDP level and growth rate after a brief rebound A return to the preshock level but at a preshock growth rate Growt

20、h resumes at a lower level and at a lower growth rate Growth resumes at a lower level GDP growth Pre- COVID-19 growth Pre- COVID-19 growth GDP growth Source: Global Payments Model 2020. Projections Differ by the Duration and Depth of Impact Boston Consulting Group X Swift | 27 level of unemployment

21、persists and global trade is slow to gain momentum. Conse- quently, consumer confidence is slower to recover as well. Deeper Impact. A widespread shock lasting more than a year with an L-shaped recovery that leaves economic growth at a lower rate over the long run as geopolitical tensions inhibit tr

22、ade recovery and consumer confi- dence stays low. This scenario becomes possible if COVID-19 cannot be brought under control and several waves of lock- downs occur. 28 | Fast Forward into the Future Boston Consulting Group has published other reports and articles that may be of interest to senior fi

23、nancial executives. Recent examples include those listed here. Unlocking the Small Business Opportunity in Financial Services A white paper by Boston Consulting Group, September 2020 Five Strategies for Mobile- Payment Banking in Africa A Focus by Boston Consulting Group, August 2020 How Supply Chai

24、n Finance Can Help Companies Beat the COVID-19 Downturn A white paper by Boston Consulting Group, July 2020 Unsecured Debt Deferral: The Next Set of Challenges A white paper by Boston Consulting Group, June 2020 ICC Trade Register Report Reveals Potential Impact of COVID-19 on Trade A report written

25、 by Boston Consulting Group and published by the International Chamber of Commerce, June 2020 Global Wealth 2020: The Future of Wealth ManagementA CEO Agenda A report by Boston Consulting Group, June 2020 Get Ready for the Future of Money An article by Boston Consulting Group, May 2020 Global Asset

26、Management 2020: Protect, Adapt, and Innovate A report by Boston Consulting Group, May 2020 A New Outlook on Pricing and Revenue Management for Banks An article by Boston Consulting Group, May 2020 Unlock Value in Banking with E2E Process Transformation An article by Boston Consulting Group, May 202

27、0 Global Risk 2020: Its Time for Banks to Self-Disrupt A report by Boston Consulting Group, April 2020 Reinventing Corporate and Investment Banks A Focus by Boston Consulting Group, March 2020 Alfa-Banks Michael Tuch on Transforming Customer Journeys An interview by Boston Consulting Group, February

28、 2020 For Banks, a Long Way to Excellence in Digital Sales An article by Boston Consulting Group, February 2020 FOR FURTHER READING Boston Consulting Group X Swift | 29 NOTE TO THE READER About the Authors Yann Snant is a managing direc- tor and partner in the Paris office of Boston Consulting Group

29、 and the global leader of the payments and transaction banking segment. Markus Ampenberger is a partner and associate director in the firms Munich office, focusing on pay- ments and transaction banking. Ankit Mathur is a knowledge ex- pert in BCGs New York office work- ing in the payments and trans-

30、 action banking segment of the Financial Institutions practice. Inderpreet Batra is a managing director and partner in the firms New York office. Jean Clavel is a managing director and partner in BCGs Paris office. Stefan Dab is a managing director and senior part- ner in the firms Brussels office.

31、Alexander Drummond is a man- aging director and partner in BCGs New York office. Sushil Malhotra is a managing director and partner in the firms New York office and the leader of the payments and trans- action banking segment of the Financial Institutions practice in North America. Stanislas Nowicki

32、 is a managing director and partner in BCGs Paris office. Prateek Roongta is a managing director and partner in the firms Mumbai office and leads the payments and transaction banking segment in Asia-Pacific. Michael Strau is a managing director and partner in BCGs Cologne office and leads the paymen

33、ts and transaction banking segment in Central Europe and the Middle East. Alejandro Tfeli is a managing director and partner in the firms Buenos Aires office. lvaro Vaca is a managing director and partner in BCGs Madrid office and leads the payments and trans- action banking segment in Western Europ

34、e, Africa, and South America. Acknowledgments The authors thank their BCG col- leagues for their valuable contribu- tions to the development of this reportin particular, Matthew Barton, Zakaria Bouazzaoui, Frdric Boutet, Keith Bussey, Tijsbert Creemers, Jean Dobbeni, Prateek Gupta, Ravi Hanspal, Tos

35、hi Hirano, Mohammad Khan, Brian OMalley, Sukand Ramachandran, Benjamin Schedl, Sebastian Serges, Ricardo Tiezzi, Kanchanat U-Chu- kanokkun, and Enrique Velasco- Castillo. In addition, the authors are ex- tremely grateful to core members of the BCG Global Payments Model team: Stephanie Resch, Akshay

36、Agarwal, Nikhil Dangayach, Anuj Goel, Jeewan Goula, and Johannes Martens. Also, Petra Demski, Jens Mndler, and Amit Sukhija provided helpful support, as did numerous local analysts from the Financial Institutions Knowledge Team and Data & Research Services. The authors are also deeply thank- ful to

37、Luc Meurant, Pedro Mullor, Harry Newman, Wim Raymaekers, and Anne-Sophie Walravens of SWIFT. Finally, the authors are grateful to Marie Glenn for writing assistance and Philip Crawford for marketing support. They thank Katherine Andrews, Siobhan Donovan, Kim Friedman, Abby Garland, and Shannon Nardi

38、 for their editorial, design, and production support. For Further Contact Yann Snant Managing Director and Partner BCG Paris +33 1 40 17 10 10 Markus Ampenberger Partner and Associate Director BCG Munich +49 89 231 740 Ankit Mathur Knowledge Expert BCG New York +1 212 446 2800 Inderpreet Batra Manag

39、ing Director and Partner BCG New York +1 212 446 2800 Jean Clavel Managing Director and Partner BCG Paris +33 1 40 17 10 10 Stefan Dab Managing Director and Senior Partner BCG Brussels +32 2 289 02 02 Alexander Drummond Managing Director and Partner BCG New York +1 212 446 2800 Sushil Malhotra Manag

40、ing Director and Partner BCG New York +1 212 446 2800 30 | Fast Forward into the Future Stanislas Nowicki Managing Director and Partner BCG Paris +33 1 40 17 10 10 Prateek Roongta Managing Director and Partner BCG Mumbai +91 22 6749 7000 Michael Strau Managing Director and Partner BCG Cologne +49 22

41、1 55 00 50 Alejandro Tfeli Managing Director and Partner BCG Buenos Aires +54 11 4317 5900 lvaro Vaca Managing Director and Partner BCG Madrid +541143175900 Boston Consulting Group 2020. All rights reserved. For information or permission to reprint, please contact BCG at . To find the latest BCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others, please visit . Follow Boston Consulting Group on Facebook and Twitter. 10/20