1、UNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2020 Special focus on the Impact of COVID-19 https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 Copyright 2020, World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, May 2020 Special f

2、ocus on the Impact of COVID-19, ISBN, printed version: 978-92-844-2192-3 ISBN, electronic version: 978-92-844-2193-0 DOI: https:/doi.org/10.18111/9789284421930 Published by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), Madrid, Spain First printing: 2020 All rights reserved. World Tourism Organization Tel.

3、: (+34) 915 678 100 Calle del Poeta Joan Maragall, 42 Fax: (+34) 915 713 733 28020 Madrid Website: www.unwto.org Spain E-mail: infounwto.org The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Secret

4、ariat of the World Tourism Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Citation: World Tourism Organization (2020), UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, May 2020 Special focus on the

5、Impact of COVID-19, UNWTO, Madrid, DOI: https:/doi.org/10.18111/9789284421930. All UNWTO publications are protected by copyright. Therefore, and unless otherwise specified, no part of an UNWTO publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or utilized in any form or by any means, electr

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8、ne of CEDROs partner organizations, with which bilateral agreements are in place (see: www.cedro.org/en). For all remaining countries, as well as for other permissions, requests should be addressed directly to the World Tourism Organization. For applications see: https:/www.unwto.org/unwto-publicati

9、ons. Photo credits: Cover photo: Andrei Calangiu | D https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 Index Executive Summary The Context COVID-19 Timeline Travel restrictions The Impact of COVID-19 on International Tourism - Ja

10、nuary-March 2020 International Tourist Arrivals Air Travel Hospitality Looking Ahead Scenarios for international tourism 2020 Recovery Prospects The most affected destinations and markets The Economic Factors Challenges and Opportunities https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunda

11、y, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 Executive Summary The world is facing an unprecedented global health, social and economic emergency with the COVID-19 pandemic. Travel and tourism is among the most affected sectors with airplanes on the ground, hotels closed and travel rest

12、rictions put in place in virtually all countries around the world. In an unprecedented blow to the tourism sector, the COVID-19 pandemic has cut international tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2020 to a fraction of what they were a year ago. Available data points to a double-digit decrease of

13、 22% in Q1 2020, with arrivals in March down by 57%. This translates into a loss of 67 million international arrivals and about USD 80 billion in receipts. https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 Executive Summary Prosp

14、ects for the year have been downgraded several times since the outbreak in view of the high level of uncertainty. Current scenarios point to declines of 58% to 78% in international tourist arrivals for the year, depending on the speed of the containment and the duration of travel restrictions and sh

15、utdown of borders, although the outlook remains highly uncertain (the scenarios arenot forecastsand shouldnot be interpreted as such). The scenariosreflect three possible patterns of monthly change in arrivals from April to December 2020 supposing thattravel restrictions start to be lifted and natio

16、nal borders opened in early July (Scenario 1: -58%), in earlySeptember (Scenario 2: -70%) orin early December (Scenario 3: -78%). These scenarios would put 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk. https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM -

17、IP Address:40.65.176.200 Executive Summary This is by far the worst result in the historical series of international tourism since 1950 and would put an abrupt end to a 10-year period of sustained growth since the 2009 financial crisis. Sentiment expressed by the UNWTO Panel of Experts points to a s

18、tart of the recovery of international demand mostly in 2021. According to Panel Experts from around the world, domestic demand would recover faster than international demand. Considerable challenges remain ahead, starting with the unknown duration of the pandemic and travel restrictions, in a contex

19、t of global economic recession. Countries around the world are implementing a wide range of measures to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and to stimulatethe recovery of the tourism sector. https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP

20、Address:40.65.176.200 The Context https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 COVID-19 timeline Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10

21、:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 Travel Restrictions 100% of worldwide destinations have introduced travel restrictions in response to the pandemic According to UNWTOs Report on COVID 19 Related Travel Restrictions, as of 20 April, 100% of all worldwide destinations have introduced travel restri

22、ctions in response to the pandemic. 97 destinations (45%) have totally or partially closed their borders for tourists. 65 destinations (30%) have suspended totally or partially international flights. 39 destinations (18%) are implementing the closing of borders in a more differentiated manner by ban

23、ning the entry for passengers from specific countries of origin”. https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 EVOLUTION OF TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 202

24、0 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 The impact of COVID-19 on international tourism January-March 2020 https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 International Tourist Arrivals January - March 2020 Available data poin

25、ts to a double-digit decrease of 22% in international tourist arrivals in Q1 2020, with arrivals in the month of March down by 57% following the start of the lockdown in many countries, widespread travel restrictions and the shutdown of airports and national borders. This represents a loss of 67 mil

26、lion international arrivals in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period of last year. By regions, Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of COVID-19, saw a 35% decrease in arrivals in Q1 2020. The second-hardest hit was Europe with a 19% decline, followed by the Ame

27、ricas (-15%), Africa (-12%) and the Middle East (-11%). https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 International tourist arrivals by region in Q1 2020 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/b

28、ook/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 +2 +6 -2 +0 +4 +6 -9 +6 -37 +3 +4 +5 -57 -60 -64 -46 -44 -41 -80 -60 -40 -20 +0 +20 WorldEurope Asia and the PacificAmericasAfricaMiddle East Jan.Feb.Mar. World Data is provisional International tourist arri

29、vals fell sharply in March 2020 International tourist arrivals, Jan, Feb, March 2020 (% change) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jan.Feb.Ma

30、r.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec. (millions) 2020* 2019 2018 2017 Sharp drop of international arrivals in March 2020 World: International tourist arrivals by months (millions) * Data for January-March 2020 is provisional and includes estimates for countries which have not yet reported data. Sour

31、ce: UNWTO https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 0 20 40 60 80 100 Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec. (millions) 2020* 2019 2018 2017 All regions suffered a strong decline in March 2020 Europe: Internation

32、al tourist arrivals by months (millions) * Data for January-March 2020 is provisional and includes estimates for countries which have not yet reported data. Source: UNWTO https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 0 5 10 1

33、5 20 25 30 35 Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec. (millions) 2020* 2019 2018 2017 * Data for January-March 2020 is provisional and includes estimates for countries which have not yet reported data. Source: UNWTO All regions suffered a strong decline in March 2020 Asia and the Pacific: In

34、ternational tourist arrivals by months (millions) https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec. (millions) 2020* 2019 2018 2017 * Data for January-March 2020 is

35、provisional and includes estimates for countries which have not yet reported data. Source: UNWTO All regions suffered a strong decline in March 2020 Americas: International tourist arrivals by months (millions) https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:3

36、7 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec. (millions) 2020* 2019 2018 2017 * Data for January-March 2020 is provisional and includes estimates for countries which have not yet reported data. Source: UNWTO All regions suffered a strong decline in

37、 March 2020 Africa: International tourist arrivals by months (millions) https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.Jul.Aug.Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec. (millions) 2020* 2019 2018 2017 * Data fo

38、r January-March 2020 is provisional and includes estimates for countries which have not yet reported data. Source: UNWTO All regions suffered a strong decline in March 2020 Middle East: International tourist arrivals by months (millions) https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunda

39、y, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 Air Travel ICAO data shows a sharp 38% decline in world total air capacity in March, with massive double-digit decreases across regions. The latest estimates for the full-year 2020 compared to baseline would be a reduction of 39% to 56% of s

40、eats offered by airlines if the recovery is in late May, o 49% to 72% if the restart is in Q3 or later.International passengers would decline 44% to 80% in 2020. IATA points to a decline of 22% in international passenger demand (RPKs) in January-March, with a 56% drop in March. IATA forecast total a

41、ir passenger market to end 2020 at -48% in RPKs. ForwardKeys data shows a massive 80% decline in air bookings worldwide in Q1. Asia and the Pacific (-98%) suffered the biggest drop and started to decline earlier, with the introduction of travel restrictions in China. Air bookings from Europe (-76%),

42、 the Americas (-67%), Africa and the Middle East (-65%) all had severe declines in the first quarter of 2020. https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 Hospitality According to STR, the impact of COVID-19 on the global ho

43、tel industry in January 2020, measured in change in revenue per available room (RevPAR), was apparent in Asia (-9.6%), but not in other world regions. By March, the hotel industry in all world regions recorded large double-digit declines in global RevPAR, with Asia (-67.8%) and Europe (-61.7%) posti

44、ng the biggest decreases. Global occupancies declined significantly in March with double- digit decreases in countries around the world, ranging from 20% to more than 70%. https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 The imp

45、act of COVID-19 on Tourism in Q1 67 million fewer international tourist arrivals 80 US$ billion lost in exports 100% destinations with travel restrictions https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 Looking Ahead https:/www

46、.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65.176.200 Domestic demand expected to recover faster than international demand International demand would recover by Q4 and mainly in 2021 according to the UNWTO Panel of Experts survey responses Sou

47、rce: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% AfricaAmericasAsia and the Pacific EuropeMiddle East 3- When do you expect international demand for your destination will start to recover? By May-JuneBy July-SeptemberBy October-DecemberBy 2021 3% 24% 34% 39% 14% 45

48、% 25% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% By May-JuneBy July-SeptemberBy October-DecemberBy 2021 When do you expect tourism demand for your destination will start to recover? InternationalDomestic https:/www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284421930 - Sunday, October 25, 2020 10:18:37 PM - IP Address:40.65

49、.176.200 Scenario Assumptions The three scenarios of international tourism in 2020 presented arenot forecastsand shouldnot be interpreted as such. Theyreflect three possible patterns of monthly change in arrivals from April to December 2020 supposing thattravel restrictions start to be lifted and national borders opened in