1、TWENTY BOLD IDEAS TO REIMAGINE THE ALLIANCE AFTER THE 2020 US ELECTION NATO 2O/ 2O2O The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General

2、 Brent Scowcrofts legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders. The Scowcroft Centers Transatlantic Security Initiativ

3、e brings together top policymakers, government and military officials, business leaders, and experts from Europe and North America to share insights, strengthen cooperation, and develop innovative approaches to the key challenges facing NATO and the transatlantic community. This publication was prod

4、uced in partnership with NATOs Public Diplomacy Division under the auspices of a project focused on revitalizing public support for the Alliance. NATO 2O/2O2O Editor-in-Chief Christopher Skaluba Project and Editorial Director Conor Rodihan Research and Editorial Support Gabriela R. A. Doyle TWENTY B

5、OLD IDEAS TO REIMAGINE THE ALLIANCE AFTER THE 2020 US ELECTION NATO 2O/ 2O2O NATO 2O/2O2O Table of Contents 02 Foreword by Christopher Skaluba 03 Modernize the Kit and the Message by H.E. Dame Karen Pierce DCMG 08 Build an Atlantic Pacific Partnership by James Hildebrand, Harry W.S. Lee, Fumika Mizu

6、no, Miyeon Oh, and Monica Michiko Sato 14 Digitalize the Enterprise by Jeffrey Reynolds and Jeffrey Lightfoot 19 Seek Membership for Mexico by Christopher Skaluba and Gabriela R. A. Doyle 26 Threaten Decisive Nuclear Retaliation by David Gompert and Hans Binnendijk 31 Open a Bank by Max Bergmann and

7、 Siena Cicarelli 36 Disband the NATO Response Force by John R. Deni 41 Listen to Women by Lisa A. Aronsson 46 Supersize Cyber by Safa Shahwan Edwards, William Loomis, and Simon Handler 51 Revitalize its Grand Strategy by Amb. Timo Koster and Ivanka Barzashka 56 Design a Digital Marshall Plan by The

8、Hon. Ruben Gallego and The Hon. Vicky Hartzler 60 Build Resilience for an Era of Shocks by Jim Townsend and Anca Agachi 66 Ramp Up on Russia by Amb. Alexander Vershbow 71 Christen a Carrier Strike Group by Michael John Williams 75 Set its Sights on the High North by Jim Danoy and Marisol Maddox 80 R

9、ethink and Replace Two Percent by Derek Chollet, Steven Keil, and Christopher Skaluba 86 Game Out Decision Making by AM Sir Christopher Harper, KBE, RAF (Ret.) 91 Put Itself Back in the Narrative by Bridget Corna and Livia Godaert 96 End the Russian Veto on Georgian Accession by Luke Coffey and Alex

10、is Mrachek 101 Reimagine the Washington Treaty by Damon Wilson and Will OBrien 106 Acknowledgments 2atlantic council NATO 2O/2O2O Foreword More than two decades after NATOs inspired decision to invite for- mer adversaries to join its ranks, the Alliance is in need of equally captivating ideas. The s

11、erious business of deterring adversaries and fighting this centurys wars has necessarily taken precedence over crafting a forward-looking vision. But developing that vision cant wait any longer. Rather than getting mired in todays debates about mundane issues like burden-sharing, NATO must build on

12、its impres- sive track record of adaptivity, resilience, and achievement. The essays in this volume are intended to push the Alliance to think boldly and creatively in the service of recapturing the publics imag- ination. They are, by design, provocative, occasionally in conflict, and sometimes impr

13、actical, at least in the near term. By prescrib- ing ideas that “NATO should” pursuebe it devising new initiatives, course-correcting current policies, or sunsetting troubled endeav- orsthe volume is an appeal for an Alliance that is more visionary, more capable, and more self-evidently valuable to

14、the security of more people. To achieve that end, weve assembled a roster of 38 contributors who reflect a diversity that eludes the NATO commu- nity generally. Weve enlisted nearly as many next-generation view- points as established ones, often in combination. This volume comes on the cusp of the 2

15、020 US presidential elec- tiona natural inflection point that will bear on NATOs future role and purpose. As the next US administration tackles relentless secu- rity challenges ranging from great-power competition to climate change, whether and how NATO contributes to solutionsand how it communicate

16、s its effectivenesswill rightly affect its standing with publics in the United States and beyond. By adopting these ideas, NATO can innovate its forms and functions to better accomplish both imperatives. If there is one overarching argument in this vol- ume, it is this: As the complexity and pace of

17、 our world intensifies, policymaking and public diplomacy require originality, diversity, and audacity to achieve relevance in the 21st century. By Christopher Skaluba, director of the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Atlantic Councils Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. NATO 2O/2O2O

18、 3atlantic council Modernize the Kit and the Message by H.E. Dame Karen Pierce DCMG NATO 2O/2O2O NATO will only remain successful over the next seventy years if it modernizes its capabilities, takes command of emerging technology, and harmonizes its strategic messaging. NATO 2O/2O2O 4atlantic counci

19、l Over the last few years NATO has been called many things, from obsolete, to brain-dead, to warmongering. So we must be doing something right. In truth, built on the common values of individual liberty, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, NATO is an unpar- alleled defensive Alliance which

20、 has kept the Euro- Atlantic region and beyond safe for more than seventy years. It has played a crucial role in bringing security and stability to Europe and its neighborhood, as its role in the Balkans showed. The importance of this cant be underestimated in this seventy-fifth anniversary of the e

21、nd of the Second World War. NATO continues to act as a platform for shared values and interests, now with partnerships across the world. The world is grow- ing more dangerous. Technological advances have the potential to transform warfare as significantly as nuclear weapons did after WW2. We need to

22、 be clear with our publics what NATO does now and needs to do in the future. Tellingly, a lot of Russian energy still goes into trying to undermine the North Atlantic Alliance every day. NATO is fit for the challenges of today. But it will only remain successful over the next seventy years if it con

23、tinues to modernize its capabilities and its message. New Threats and Complex Challenges The threats NATO faces today are much more multi- faceted than those faced by the Alliance when it was first established. Great power dynamics are making the world more unpredictable. Russia and China seem to se

24、e the current situation as a competition to re-set the rules of international affairs and their actions are get- ting more dangerous in this respect. Russia continues to pursue hybrid warfare and to develop new ways to destabilize Europe and the Alliance with the United States, using everything from

25、 disinformation to new missile systems. The Skripal poi- sonings in Salisbury, an English city, in 2018, under- scored the seriousness of the threat we face from Russia. As the United Kingdoms permanent represen- tative to the United Nations at the time, I saw Russia making light of a reckless and d

26、angerous attack in which a British citizen died and many more were endangered. In leaving the Novichok agent in a public place, Russias GRU played dice with the lives of British citizens. After this attack, the UK and our allies ensured that Russia paid a heavy price for breaking international law,

27、including through the expulsion of 153 intelligence officers from NATO members and other European countries. But two years later, a banned chemical weapon has again been used, this time against leading Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny. This is little short of gangsterism. The five permanent

28、members of the UN Security Council have a special duty to uphold international law on the prohibited use of chemical weapons. Meanwhile China is also investing heavily in new capa- bilities, global infrastructure, cyberspace, nuclear weapons, and long-range missiles that could reach NATO nations. Ch

29、inas actions in the South China Sea and use of malicious cyber activity for criminal ends risk a wider security effect. The COVID-19 pandemic has further increased uncertainty and accentuated trends. It has sharpened the focus on the challenge Beijing increasingly poses, and shown that China, as wel

30、l as Russia, is quite capable of spreading disinfor- mation to advance its own interests. NATO members want to use new innovations to bene- fit their citizens and to bolster open societies. But we need to be alive to the risk that state adversaries will utilize technological developments to undermin

31、e our traditional strengths, and even against their own citi- zens as we have seen with Chinas use of artificial intel- ligence in Xinjiang. And we cannot be confident that we can prevent such technologies reaching malign non-state actors. Modernize the Kit and the Message NATO 2O/2O2O 5atlantic cou

32、ncil Keep on Modernizing The good news is that NATO has a track record of adapting fast to new priorities. Since Russias invasion of Ukraine in 2014, the Alliance has transformed. It has established enhanced Forward Presence on its east- ern flank, adapted its command structure, increased the readin

33、ess of its forces, and agreed a new military strategy. It has recognized cyber and space as new domains of operations, acknowledged that cyber and hybrid attacks could lead to the invocation of Article 5, and introduced a counter-hybrid strategy. It has also adapted to address Russias deployment of

34、new inter- mediate-range missiles, including by strengthening air and missile defenses and adapting exercises; built new partnerships (40 and counting, including in the Indo- Pacific); and is playing a constructive role in countering the global pandemic by delivering personal protec- tive equipment

35、and medicine. And it has welcomed new alliesMontenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia this year, whilst giving Ukraine the privileged status of enhanced opportunity partner. Now, NATO is readying itself for artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons, quantum computing which could render current enc

36、ryption obsolete, and new weapons such as hypersonic missiles that have global reach and could reduce allies decision time in the face of attack. There has already been some impressive progress, including the agreement in London of a clear roadmap for “Emerging and Disruptive Technologies,” which de

37、scribes the complex security environment which allies will navigate together. In the UK, we are already thinking through how best to reshape the armed forces and modernize capabilities through our Integrated Foreign, Security and Defence Review. NATO will remain the bedrock of the UKs col- lective s

38、ecurity. Our defense budget will keep increas- ing above the rate of inflation. We will continue to see the two percent of GDP target as a floor, not a ceiling. At the heart of the UKs renewed offer to NATO will be a set of capabilities which demonstrate the value of agility and speed of response, r

39、eadiness, and our sta- tus as a framework nation. Innovation, as well as sci- ence and technology, will be central to our capability strategy. Underpinned by the commitment of our num- ber one strategic asset, our Continuous At Sea Nuclear Deterrent, we will bring leading capabilities across air, se

40、a, land, space, and cyber. We believe that this will, increasingly, become the direction of travel for the whole Alliance as it imple- ments it new deterrence and defense concept. Future armed forces will be measured not by the number of NATO 2O/2O2O Modernize the kit and the message F-35B Lightning

41、 Jets embarked on HMS Queen Elizabeth for the first Carrier Sea Training. (UK Ministry of Defence) NATO 2O/2O2O 6atlantic council platforms in our inventories, but by our ability to out- match any adversary, wherever and however they fight, even if those fights are gray zone efforts to under- mine o

42、ur security in other ways. Deterring a growing range of threats from a larger range of state and non- state actors will require a broader range of capabilities from across our governments, and from our collective Alliance. Invest in Our Message As NATO continues to adapt, so too do we need to demons

43、trate and communicate the value it holds to our citizens. When NATO allies see things differ- ently, as all good friends sometimes do, the press and media work overtime to highlight our differences. That is their job. When NATO is quietly getting on with its day-to-day work, its one billion citizens

44、 hear much less. Communicating this positive message was one rea- son the UK was so proud to host the NATO Leaders Meeting last year in London, the home of NATOs first headquarters, where we marked the seventieth anni- versary of the signing of the founding Washington Treaty. We invited politicians

45、and military officers, along with think tankers and academics, to join the celebrations, but we also wanted younger generations to take pride in the Alliances successes. Reaching new audiences is a key goal of the NATO Engages Consortium, and these scene-setting events, held on the sidelines of for-

46、 mal NATO meetings, have fast become one of the live- liest parts of the NATO calendar. The audience at the NATO Engages event in London reflected the contemporary makeup of the societ- ies the Alliance is designed to protect, with a major- ity under the age of thirty. In my experience, that age gro

47、up wants to be talked with, not at, and they want to hear directly from pilots and aid workers, not just politicians. They want to hear from people their own age as well; people like 16-year-old Olivia Seltzer from Santa Barbara, California, who founded The Cramm newsletter, which now reaches reader

48、s in seventy countries around the world. The British Embassy in Washington DC, where I am now based, works to amplify such activity and reach new generations of Americans. For thirty-five years, embassy officials have enjoyed talking to univer- sity students participating in the annual International

49、 Model NATO Conference. Investment in our students is an investment in our future security. As the strategic context has evolved, so too has pub- lic perception. NATOs work should not only reflect the challenges we face today but cater to the modern-day concerns of its citizens, and we need to tell this new chapter in the NATO story with confidence and clarity. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenbergs launch of #NATO2030 demonstrates his understanding of this challengewe hope all NATO allies will follow. Governments have a duty to be honest and open with our c