1、2021 banking and capital markets outlook Strengthening resilience, accelerating transformation A report from the Deloitte Center of Financial Services About the Deloitte Center for Financial Services The Deloitte Center for Financial Services, which supports the organizations US Financial Services p

2、ractice, provides insight and research to assist senior-level decision-makers within banks, capital markets firms, investment managers, insurance carriers, and real estate organizations. The center is staffed by a group of professionals with a wide array of in-depth industry experiences as well as c

3、utting-edge research and analytical skills. Through our research, roundtables, and other forms of engagement, we seek to be a trusted source for relevant, timely, and reliable insights. Read recent publications and learn more about the center on D. Connect To learn more about the vision of the DCFS,

4、 its solutions, thought leadership, and events, please visit Subscribe To receive email communications, please register at Engage Follow us on Twitter at: DeloitteFinSvcs. Deloitte brings together professionals with diverse experience to provide customized solutions for clients across all segments o

5、f the banking and capital markets industries. We serve our clients locally, while drawing upon the firms considerable global resources and industry expertise. To learn more, visit D. Redefining the art of the possible in a post-COVID-19 world 3 Sustainable finance: A unique opportunity for inspiring

6、 leadership 10 Digital customer engagement: The next frontier 12 Talent: Boosting well-being and productivity through resilient leadership 15 Operations: Building long-term resilience, and using technology for strategic cost transformation 18 Technology: Capitalizing on the multiplicative value of d

7、ifferent technologies 21 Finance: Driving strategic value through data 23 Risk: Creating a new risk control architecture 25 Key actions to consider in the business segments 27 Endnotes 33 Contents 2 KEY MESSAGES Banks will need to enhance resilience across capital, technology, and talent, as they co

8、nfront potential new challenges in the short term. Longer term, banks should accelerate and amplify their transformation efforts across the enterprise. Banks can institutionalize the lessons learned during the pandemic. These may include operating with agility, flattening hierarchies, speeding up de

9、cision-making, empowering employees, and introducing flexible workplaces and workforces. Future success may very well hinge on how well these lessons have been internalized and implemented. COVID-19 not only accelerated digital adoption, but it has also been a litmus test for banks digital infrastru

10、ctures. Institutions that made strategic investments in technology came out stronger, but laggards may still be able to leapfrog if they take swift action to accelerate tech modernization. Across the board, digital inertia has faded, and more banks are pursuing technology-driven transformation, espe

11、cially to core systems. To fully realize the digital promise in the front office, banks can elevate customer engagement by deploying an optimal mix of digital and human interactions, intelligent use of data, novel partnerships, and compelling service delivery models. As banks adapt to the economic r

12、ealities of 2021, they may need to make some hard decisions on the optimal talent models. But at the same time, they should maintain a focus on employee well-being and productivity as the pandemic-induced stress on the workforce continues. Banks have an opportunity to become purpose-driven global le

13、aders. Given their unique and vital role in the global economy, banks should be at the forefront of leading social change and mitigating climate risk by reallocating capital, enhancing risk frameworks, providing greater transparency, and improving data and reporting standards. 2021 banking and capit

14、al markets outlook 3 T HE BANKING INDUSTRYS collective response to the pandemic thus far has been notable. It was no easy feat to go fully virtual and execute an untested operating model in a matter of weeks. Despite some hiccups, many banking operations were executed smoothly. Customers were served

15、, employees were productive, and regulators were reassured. Banks effectively deployed technology and demonstrated unprecedented agility and resilience. More importantly, banks played a crucial part in stabilizing the economy and transmitting government stimulus and relief programs in the United Sta

16、tes, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, and many European countries, among others. Banks healthy capital levels before the pandemic also helped mitigate the negative impacts from the crisis and should pave the way for the global economy to thrive in the future. For the banking industry, the economic

17、 consequences of the pandemic are not on the same scale as those during the Global Financial Crisis of 200810 (GFC), but they are still notable. In addition to the financial fallout, COVID-19 is reshaping the global banking industry on a number of dimensions, ushering in a new competitive landscape,

18、 stifling growth in some traditional product areas, prompting a new wave of innovation, recasting the role of branches, and of course, accelerating digitization in almost every sphere of banking and capital markets. Some of these forces were already in motion before COVID-19. Global GDP growth was w

19、aning, but the pandemic exacerbated the slowdown. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global GDP to decline by 4.4%,1 or almost US$6.2 trillion in 2020.2 Despite a possible rebound in 2021, global GDP could still be US$9.3 trillion lower than what was expected a year ago. This drastic cont

20、raction in the global economy has already meaningfully diminished loan growth and payment transaction volumes. These declines have been largely offset by near-record levels of trading revenues and wealth management fees. But as the pandemic continues, banks will likely be confronted with a greater s

21、hare of distressed assets on their books. COVID-19 is reshaping the global banking industry on a number of dimensions, ushering in a new competitive landscape, stifling growth in some traditional product areas, prompting a new wave of innovation, and accelerating digitization. Redefining the art of

22、the possible in a post-COVID-19 world Strengthening resilience, accelerating transformation 4 How bad could it get for banks? The Deloitte Center for Financial Services estimates that the US banking industry may have to provision for a total of US$318 billion in net loan losses from 2020 to 2022, re

23、presenting 3.2% of loans.3 While losses can be expected in every loan category, they may be most acute within credit cards, commercial real estate, and small business loans. Generally, these losses are smaller than during the GFC, when US banks recorded a loss ratio of 6.6% from 2008 to 2010.4 As of

24、 Q2 2020, the top 100 US banks had provisioned US$103.4 billion, in contrast to US$62.5 billion for the top 100 European banks and US$68.8 billion for the top 100 banks in Asia-Pacific (figure 1). Note: Q3 2020 data is as of November 3, 2020. Source: The Deloitte Center for Financial Services, S COV

25、ID-19 has led to increased adoption of fl exible workplace models. Focus on safety and surveillance More consumers will likely expect safety and precautionary measures from both brands and governments. Corporate responsibility Taking steps to do the right thing in the COVID-19 context is becoming ta

26、ble stakes for consumers. The larger purpose of banks is changing. Emergence of pop-up ecosystems Value chain disruption will likely result in more creative partnerships, innovation, and agility. Focus on cost reduction Structural cost reduction could be a critical priority to ensure business contin

27、uity based on cash, profi ts, and revenues. The sharing economy Rising health and hygiene concerns and increased virtual work may reduce demand for shared services. Urbanization While urbanization has been growing steadily, social distancing and rising fears of contagion may reduce the likelihood of

28、 people living and working in major cities. Global movement of people and goods Based on likely government restrictions, the movement of people and goods across national borders could decrease. Accelerated Decelerated Acceleration and deceleration of trends FIGURE 3 How COVID-19 has aff ected megatr

29、ends globally 2021 banking and capital markets outlook 7 But to fully realize the digital promise in the front office, banks should use various levers to elevate customer engagement. These can include creating an optimal mix of digital and human interactions, using data intelligently, establishing n

30、ovel partnerships, and deploying compelling service delivery models. The net impact of these megatrends, combined with macroeconomic realities such as the low- interest rate environment in the decade ahead, should fundamentally reconfigure the banking industry. First and foremost, traditional revenu

31、e sources and business growth in established segments will likely be moderate at best, which would force banks to find new pathways to profitable growth. Second, scale, more than ever, could become critical as profitability pressure will put costs into greater focus. And third, advanced technology i

32、s expected to be at the heart of everything banks do. The economic damage from the pandemic is self- evident. Unemployment rates around the world could remain at elevated levels for the foreseeable future. As a result, there could be a striking growth in global poverty, with as many as 150 million p

33、eople pushed into “extreme poverty” by 2021.6 There are already signs of worsening income inequality and a growing number of women dropping out of the workforce. Banking with a purpose While banking seems to be changing, so does the purpose of banks. Societies around the world now expect banks to he

34、lp address income inequality, racial and gender inequity, and climate change. As vital engines of growth in the global economy through a multitude of rolesfinancial market intermediaries, asset owners, investors, and employers. While some unique challenges remainthe lack of common global standards,

35、insufficient data, and unclear metrics to assess sustainability performance and outcomesthese issues are starting to be addressed. At the behest of the International Business Council, the World Economic Forum collaborated with Deloitte and the other Big 4 accounting firms to develop a set of common

36、metrics to monitor progress in stakeholder capitalism, which also includes climate change.7 Banks can play a leadership role in driving the sustainable finance agenda but will need to engage with other institutions to solve the many problems in this area. Banks have a critical role to play in sustai

37、nable finance. In addition to helping allocate or redirect capital toward economic activities that are net positive to societies, they can also nudge new behaviors among clients and counterparties. Strengthening resilience, accelerating transformation 8 Lessons from the pandemic Forced to respond to

38、 some exacting realities, banks learned valuable lessons in the early months of the pandemic. There was no existing playbook, so bank leaders had to find new ways to do things. Traditional constructs and friction were dismantled in favor of clarity and agility. New levels of internal and external co

39、llaboration were achieved. Cultural norms and practices related to decision-making were discarded. Instead, employees were trusted to do the right thing and empowered to act. Going forward, banks should look to institutionalize some of these learnings to create more agile workforces. They should dev

40、elop new talent models to facilitate flexible, self- organizing teams that come together for a common purpose. Institutions should also focus on workplace redesign to help strike the right balance between in-person work environments and remote arrangements, which should be based on the specific need

41、s of various roles or jobs. Of course, the goal of these changes should be to boost productivity, creativity, and collaboration. Bold moves for an uncertain future In this report, we offer perspectives on how these lessons can be applied to strengthen resilience and accelerate transformation in the

42、following areas: digital customer engagement, talent, operations, technology, risk, finance, M in countries observing national lockdowns, many institutions experienced a disruption in offshore delivery centers. Strengthening resilience and accelerating transformation in operations Going forward, str

43、engthening operational resilience will likely be a main challenge many banks face.34 While theres no silver bullet, banks could reassess their global footprint and dependence on third parties, conduct more frequent simulation exercises, and improve information systems to respond quickly to future ev

44、ents. For instance, they may consider nearshoring some offshore positions to embrace a true multilocation model. This may build in some redundancy, but it would help reduce operational risks. In our survey, a majority of respondents reported implementing or planning to implement some of these resili

45、ence measures (figure 7). Undoubtedly, agility goes hand in hand with resilience. Banks should eschew perfection in favor of agile execution. Leaders should empower their front-line workforces with more decision-making authority by creating flatter team structures and revisiting responsibilities and

46、 accountability.35 Many banks could also pursue a structural cost transformation initiative to bolster operational efficiency (figure 7). They can use branch and office space rationalization as one of the levers to lower fixed costs. However, traditional branch closures could be partially offset by

47、drive-throughs and next-gen branches that enhance customer experience. For instance, US Bancorp plans to maintain its caf-style branches and reemphasize its role in facilitating conversations with customers as transactions increasingly shift to digital channels.36 Operations Building longterm resili

48、ence and using technology for strategic cost transformation 2021 banking and capital markets outlook 19 Source: The Deloitte Center for Financial Services Global Outlook Survey 2020. Deloitte Insights | Implement technology to enhance effi ciency Suspend new expenditures and investments Rationalize

49、compensation and headcount Trim discretionary spending Pursue mergers or acquisitions Rationalize real estate footprint Divest nonperforming or noncore operations Rationalize assets Accelerate innovation initiatives FIGURE 7 Banks plan to take a variety of actions to support fi nancial and operational stability North AmericaEurope Asia-Pacifi c (APAC) Actions planned ove