1、Kevin Wei Wang Alan Lau Fang Gong McKinsey Digital April 2016 Kevin Wei Wang Alan Lau Fang Gong McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey How savvy, social shoppers are transforming e-commerce April 2016 Kevin Wei Wang Alan Lau Fang Gong How savvy, social shoppers are transforming e-commerce McKinsey iCo

2、nsumer China 2016 survey 1McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey INTRODUCTION With the most Internet users of any country, China is the worlds largest and fastest-growing e-commerce market. Capitalizing on opportunities, however, is becoming harder for consumer-facing companies as e-commerce penetrati

3、on rates plateau in high-tier cities and as digital attackers, especially in the online-to-offline space, cut into incumbents margins. According to McKinseys latest survey of Chinas Internet users, promising sources of e-commerce growth are emerging. The research points to areas with major growth po

4、tential: the uptake of online shopping among consumers in low-tier cities, e-commerce penetration beyond first-mover product categories such as apparel, purchases initiated from social media platforms, and the use of cross-border shopping to supplement domestic channels. Our research also revealed p

5、ositive trends in multichannel services, known in China as online-to-offline (O2O) services. Some observers have speculated that O2O services have used investment capital to cut their prices and thereby win customers. While this is true for some categories, our survey suggests customers appreciate t

6、he convenience and quality of O2O servicesparticularly travel, dining, and transportation, on which they increase their total spending after they start to use O2O options. This years survey, conducted online during January 2016, engaged more than 3,100 people across a wide range of income levels and

7、 household locations. Their responses confirmed our view that the e-commerce and O2O-services markets still hold enormous potential. In this report, we describe changes in Chinese e-commerce and consider the growth prospects associated with trends in low-tier cities, social media, and cross-border s

8、hopping. We then turn to the dynamics of the O2O sector and take a closer look at opportunities in travel, dining, and mobility services. 2McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey THE EVOLVING PROFILE OF E-COMMERCE IN CHINA At approximately $630 billion of sales in 2015, Chinas online retail market is t

9、he worlds largest, nearly 80 percent bigger than the United Statess, which it overtook some two years ago. E-commerce in China accounts for 13.5 percent of all retail spending, a higher share than that of all large economies but the United Kingdom. Although Chinese e-commerce is forecast to grow str

10、ongly in the near term, our survey shows that companies need to prepare for new customer segments, product categories, and sales channels to emerge as dominant sources of future growth. Catering to users across devices has become essential for consumer-facing businesses. This years survey confirms t

11、hat Chinas digital consumers still overwhelmingly use mobile devices to access the Internet, as they have for years. While mobile-first marketing strategies are important, PC-based offerings should not be neglected. We found that multidevice owners (those who use two or three connected devices, such

12、 as smartphones, tablets, and computers) are more intense digital consumers. They spend 17 percent more on e-commerce than their mobile-only peers. They also shop online in 29 percent more categories and interact 14 percent more with businesses through social networks, using such interfaces as brand

13、s public WeChat accounts (Exhibit 1). Among Chinas digital consumers, certain product categories have caught on more than others (Exhibit 2). Consumer electronics and small appliances are two well-established online categories, with e-commerce reaching around 30 percent of total retail sales. Appare

14、l has historically led other categories in online adoption; our survey found that nearly 60 percent of consumers bought apparel online at least once in the past three months. For the apparel sector to increase its online-value-share percentage above its current level in the low 20s, all elements of

15、the e-commerce experienceincluding merchandise selection, style advice, and returns and exchangesneed to become as appealing as shopping in physical stores. Exhibit 1 SocialOnline shopping Spend17%more, shop29%more categories 14% more interaction with businesses on social networks 3% (21%) 18% (23%)

16、 78% (56%) PCMobile 2016, % (2015, %) 1% (19%) 16% (21%) 83% (60%) China is a mobile-first market, but multiscreen users on average spend 17 percent more than their mobile-only peers Device adoption among digital consumers, % n = 3,100 SOURCE: McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey 3McKinsey iConsumer

17、 China 2016 survey Food (including packaged and fresh food), a category that faces more challenges in building sustainable online business models, has also reached a high level of adoption, with nearly 50 percent of consumers making some purchases online, according to our survey. But those online pu

18、rchases account for only 5 percent of consumers total food spending. The small size of the average online food basket, at less than $15, suggests that consumers are not yet going online to make food purchases as large as those they make at supermarkets. Companies that can entice consumers to do rout

19、ine grocery shopping online stand to capture a lot of business. Within this large and active e-commerce market, we see three trends that have important implications for how consumer-facing businesses can continue pursuing revenue and profit growth in China. Exhibit 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 5404

20、550556065 Food in the past 3 months for all other categories. SOURCE: Euromonitor; McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey 4McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey Consumers in low-tier cities are outspending those in high-tier cities onlineand the gap is likely to get wider By several measures in our sur

21、vey, the e-commerce activity of low-tier cities (Tier 3 and below) now rivals or surpasses that of high-tier cities (Tiers 1 and 2). Low-tier cities total spending on e-commerce caught up with that of high-tier cities for the first time in 2015 (Exhibit 3). And low-tier cities are now home to 74 mil

22、lion more online shoppers than high-tier cities. Even with these gains, low-tier cities still have tremendous potential for e-commerce growth. Some 160 million people in low-tier cities who use online services have yet to begin shopping online. Thats nearly as many people as the number of online sho

23、ppers in high-tier cities today. Major e-commerce platforms are investing heavily to acquire customers and build logistics networks in low-tier cities. Brands that have historically focused on high-tier cities may benefit from revisiting their geographic strategies and making adjustments to take adv

24、antage of opportunities in low-tier cities, where physical retail needs time to mature. In high-tier cities, by contrast, our survey shows limited potential for e-commerce growth driven by user penetration. Nearly everyone living in high-tier cities is online: 83 percent of people 13 and older. Amon

25、g those Internet users, 89 percent already shop online. Further e-commerce growth in high-tier cities may therefore need to come from increased shopping frequency, expansion of online shopping categories, and larger purchases. To increase e-commerce sales to existing shoppers, companies will need to

26、 use data analytics to better understand the needs of different customer segments and engage them with tailored upselling and cross-selling efforts. Low-tier cities spend more on e-commerce than high-tier cities Tiers 1 & 2 Tiers 3 & 4 49.9% 89% 183 million 43% 50.1% 62% 257 million 61% E-commerce p

27、enetration2 Share of national GMV1 Online shopper base Online shopper growth 1 Gross merchandise value. 2 Of digital consumers age 13+. SOURCE: McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey Exhibit 3 Trend #1 5McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey Social media has become a powerful channel for initiating onli

28、ne purchases Half of the digital consumers we surveyed use social media to do product research or get recommendations. More recently, consumers have used social media as a significant channel not just for deciding what to buy, but also for acting on those decisions. Of the WeChat users we surveyed,

29、31 percent initiated purchases on the platformdouble the proportion of the previous year. These purchases begin in a range of places on the social platform, from official channels (such as JD.com entrances and brands public accounts) to user-generated content (such as Moments and chat groups) to lin

30、ks to other apps. Impulse-driven categories like apparel and personal care are most popular among the WeChat shoppers we surveyed, with WeChat-initiated purchases accounting for about 25 to 30 percent of online spending in those categories (Exhibit 4). We see considerable opportunity for brands and

31、retailers to reach customers on social platforms, using tactics like contextual targeting to display information about products at moments when consumers are reading about them. Trend #2 Purchases initiated from WeChat doubled in a year % of WeChat users who have shopped from WeChat1 n = 525 Top cha

32、nnels Apparel 60% of WeChat shoppers 32% of their online apparel spending Top categories Personal care 41% of WeChat shoppers 25% of their online personal-care spending 1 Referring to those who have ever made purchases through WeChats JD.com entrance, public accounts, Moments, group chats, or links

33、to other apps. 32% JD.com entrances 23% Public accounts 23% Moments or chat groups 22% Links to other apps 31 15 2016 2X 2015 SOURCE: McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey Exhibit 4 6McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey Consumers are buying goods from cross-border vendors to supplement what they buy

34、domestically E-commerce has given Chinas digital consumers access to products from overseas, and a notable share of consumers appears to be taking advantage. Nearly one-fifth of the digital consumers we surveyed now buy some goods from vendors outside China (Exhibit 5). We also found that cross-bord

35、er shoppers prefer items that are either too expensive or too scarce at domestic vendors. For example, shoppers in Tier 1 cities use overseas sellers most often for premium healthcare products (for example, dietary supplements, medicines, and medical instruments) that supplement the offerings of loc

36、al retailers. For consumers in Tier 2 cities, luxury goods account for the highest proportion of purchases from foreign vendors. Chinese authorities recently announced the formalization of import and value-added taxes on cross-border commerce. As these changes take effect, we believe Chinas consumer

37、s will increasingly use foreign e-commerce vendors to buy products that domestic sources do not offer, rather than to get better prices on goods that are available from domestic vendors. For foreign brands that have limited reach but proven appeal in China, e-commerce offers a way to serve Chinese c

38、onsumers without adding local distribution capabilities. Nearly one-fifth of digital consumers buy from e-commerce vendors outside China Online shoppers who buy from vendors outside China, % n = 1,018 16 19 23 24 Tier 3 Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 4 Spending on cross-border purchases as a share of total spen

39、ding, % 40 50 39 38 3629 2538 21 29 10 0 LuxuryApparel Healthcare products National average: 19 SOURCE: McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey Trend #3 Exhibit 5 7McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey NEW DYNAMICS IN O2O SERVICES O2O services companies have attracted huge streams of capital from invest

40、ors who see the category as the next big thing in digital China. Some observers believe O2O businesses have used investors money to lure customers with prices that are too low to generate profits and they predict that O2O companies will eventually go out of business or burn through their capital res

41、erves and raise prices enough to send consumers back to offline-only vendors. O2O services have put considerable pricing pressure on traditional vendors in sectors such as travel but less in sectors such as dining and mobility. In all these sectors, quality and convenience matter just as much as pri

42、ce, if not more. Among the consumers we surveyed, 77 percent reported that their total spending on travel increased after they began buying from O2O vendors (Exhibit 6). Similarly, using O2O services led 65 percent of consumers to increase their total spending on dining and 42 percent to spend more

43、on mobility. This suggests that O2O services offering a unique value proposition could power additional growth in Chinas online market over the years to come. Exhibit 6 Consumers who expect O2O services to cost less than offline-only services, % n = 520 35 39 59 MobilityTravelDining Despite creating

44、 high expectations for discounts, O2O services strongly stimulate total spending 61% of consumers always check discounts before dining Consumers indicating that total spending increased when O2O services were used,1 % n = 520 1 Including those who answered “start doing,” “total spend increases a lot

45、 (50%),” and “total spend increases a bit (2050%).” 42 65 77 Mobility Dining Travel SOURCE: McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey 8McKinsey iConsumer China 2016 survey Chinese consumers are embracing O2O travel services Nearly 80 percent of the digital consumers we surveyed have traveled in the past

46、12 months. These consumers are relying more and more on O2O travel services. According to our survey, travel is one of the most popular O2O categories, used by 36 percent of O2O consumers nationwide and 56 percent in Tier 1 cities (Exhibit 7). Travel also demonstrates the pricing and spending dynami

47、cs of O2O services. Nearly 60 percent of the people we surveyed expect to pay O2O travel providers less than they would pay traditional providers. The survey also showed that online channels stimulate significant travel spend: 77 percent of O2O travel users indicate that their total travel spend inc

48、reased after they began using O2O travel services. Many hotels and airlines are strengthening their own e-channels to avoid pricing pressure from O2O services. To capture opportunities in O2O travel, businesses also need to address consumers stated concerns, which include ticket guarantees and doubt

49、s about product and service quality. Many consumers use O2O travel services, and those who do will pay more for value-added features Other O2O users 36% 64% 21 26 36 41 56 Tier 4 Tier 3 Tier 2 Tier 1 National average: 36 Rural Consumers using O2O travel services, % n = 520 O2O travel users who are willing to pay a premium for value-added services,1% n = 188 57 58 59 63 Product upgrade (eg, better hotel) Reduced advertising Ticketing guarantees Personalized travel planning 1 Respondents who said they are “willing” or “very willing” to pay more for value-added serv