1、IS SUE 3 | SEPTEMBER 2016 E-COMMERCE: DRIVING GROWTH FOR FMCG? THE GLOBAL PICTURE FORECAST 2025 HOW AND WHY REGIONS ARE DEVELOPING DIFFERENTLY PREDICTIONS FOR THE FUTURE THE FUTURE OF E-C MMERCE IN FMCG 32 INTRODUCTION? 02 03 | Introduction E-commerce: driving growth for FMCG? 04 | E-commerce hot sp

2、ots The global picture 06 | Asia Eastern promise 08 | South Korea 09 | Japan 12 | Europe A continent divided 13 | France 14 | Germany 15 | United Kingdom 16 | United States of America Behind the curve 20 | Latin America Connected but conventional 24 | World of opportunity How brands and retailers ar

3、e driving online sales 28 | Forecast 2025 Predictions for the future 30 | Conclusion Streamed shopping, the future of FMCG? CONTENTS 03 In previous years, we have stressed the urgency for packaged goods retailers and brands to invest swiftly and decisively in e-commerce. Simply put: we demonstrated

4、that the FMCG e-commerce market is unkind to latecomers. For brands, the priority is to get on the shopping list. Our data shows that 55% of online shoppers use the same shopping list from one purchase to the next, giving a significant first mover advantage. While the industry as a whole is relative

5、ly flat growing just 1.6% in the 12 months to June 2016 and forecast to slow further to 1.2% in 2017 grocery e-commerce has a value growth of 15% on the previous year. It now accounts for 4.4% of all packaged goods sales generating $48bn in 2016. This is forecast to increase even further: by 2025, o

6、nline packaged goods sales will be worth an estimated $150bn, growing to 9% of total FMCG value. Consumers needs are changing as they become increasingly time-poor and value conscious. In China, 79% of shoppers choose their store depending on its proximity to their home or commute. In Spain, 44% are

7、 looking for products that help save them time. And where waiting isnt an option, next hour delivery is becoming increasingly available, although currently at a premium price. Shifting demographics are hastening these changes. In the next 10 years, GenerationZ will be making the shopping choices. Th

8、is generation has never drawn breath in a non-digital world. They are constantly connected to their devices, where social media elevates their voice and gives them a direct line to once faceless brands. Today, over half of the adult population owns a smartphone; by 2020, 80% will. If brands wish to

9、reach shoppers, they need to meet them on their platform. Supply is fast meeting demand. The past 12 months have seen a rise in the availability of new offers from Alibaba, Amazon, Uber and Instacart. Built on a different model to traditional FMCG retailers, they cater to the global consumers main d

10、emand convenience. Their rise presents an acute problem for incumbents: our figures reveal that first-to-market online retailers enjoy higher market share than their next competitor, a difference of at least 40% in France and up to three times for the UK. These figures would suggest that online is t

11、he place to invest for FMCG: huge business opportunities, valuable shoppers and an exciting future. But unfortunately, its not quite as simple as that. Of key importance for packaged goods retailers and manufacturers is making sure that going online doesnt cannibalise their offline business. Compara

12、tive research we conducted across the UK, France and China, showed that after one year of e-commerce adoption, British and French shoppers spent less overall. This demonstrates a major risk of lost value for the industry if there is no clear differentiation when marketing offline and online offers.

13、This report will focus on three pillars to help retailers and brands navigate a future in e-commerce: E-commerce hotspots this year, we have investigated the reasons why some of the worlds consumers have made the switch to online so seamlessly, while others stay wedded to legacy retail. By comparing

14、 individual countrys similarities and differences, we can spot patterns and successes, offering the right advice for each market. A world of opportunity generating additional, or incremental, spend is possible. By looking across retail channels, this section will help brands to understand whether e-

15、commerce provides additional value to the offline business. The future of e-commerce our experts will look at the market as it stands to predict how e-commerce will look in 2025, allowing retailers to prepare for the future today. E-COMMERCE: DRIVING GROWTH FOR FMCG? By Stphane Roger, Global Directo

16、r of Shopper and Retail DENMARK POLAND 0.7% RUSSIA JAPAN CHINA VIETNAM MALAYSIA TAIWAN PORTUGAL SPAIN TURKEY ROMANIA 0.9% 7.2% SOUTH KOREA 16.6% 4.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% HUNGARY 0.8% AUSTRIA 0.3% 1% 1.7% 1.3% BELGIUM 0.9% NETHERLANDS 1.7% UK 6.9% FRANCE 5.3% ITALY 0.4% CZ 2.1% GERMANY 1.2% ARGENTINA

17、 1% BRAZIL 0.1% MEXICO 0.1% US 1.4% 5.2% E-COMMERCE HOT SPOTSE-COMMERCE HOT SPOTS 0504 Online grocery shopping is steadily growing across the world but, confusingly, countries where we might expect to see a discernible adoption of online grocery in mature economies such as the US and Germany, and em

18、erging markets including Brazil e-commerces share remains small. Such a wide spectrum of adoption represents a global “puzzle of performance” for FMCG e-commerce. This year, we have endeavoured to investigate the reasons why some of the worlds consumers have made the switch to online so seamlessly,

19、while others stay wedded to legacy retail. THE GLOBAL PICTURE The question retailers must ask is how to continue growth in the highly digital East and encourage further development in the West Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Gfk, Intage, iri 2015 While countries like South Korea and China are embracing t

20、he digital shopping experience, the US and Latin America remain less engaged although e-commerce is still on the rise in these regions. The question retailers must ask is how to continue growth in the digital East, and encourage further development in the West. The future development of e-commerce i

21、s strongly connected to the culture, habits and beliefs of each country. Retailers and brand owners need to understand where a target country is positioned in order to design marketing and sales strategies which will properly impact those shoppers. A one size fits all approach will not work. SOUTH K

22、OREA ARGENTINA Frequency 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 UK FRANCE SPAIN GERMANY PORTUGAL BRAZIL MEXICO CHINA JAPAN PHASE 1PHASE 2PHASE 3 Below: The three phases of FMCG ecommerce development Mature marketsFully digital Online value share of market as at June 2016 Source: K

23、antar Worldpanel, Europanel, Intage Penetration Early adopters ASIAASIA 0706 ASIA: EASTERN PROMISE The swift level of adoption of the online shopping models in Asia doesnt necessarily follow economic strength or even growth. So what does unite it in its race to digitisation? One possible explanation

24、 is that Asia, like Latin America, shares a collectivist culture: one that is based on valuing the needs of a group or a community over the individual. This manifests in a higher incidence of risk-seeking behaviour because of what sociologists call the cushion effect, a trait found in places like Ch

25、ina, by which family and social networks will help out any group member who loses a lot of money after selecting a risky option. In contrast, in individualist cultures such as the US, a person is expected to bear the consequences of their own decision. This closeness between groups and individuals i

26、n society means that adoption of new technologies diffuses fast. Trends, word-of-mouth, and activities where people can work together are valued highly, particularly in comparison to cultures which value third-party advice and research over recommendations or advocacy. Celebrities and social influen

27、cers are unsurprisingly huge drivers of e-commerce in China, particularly among younger audiences. This year, using the video sharing app Meipai, Maybelline promoted a live internet stream of its new brand ambassador, Angelababy, and various other internet celebrities (known locally as “internet red

28、s”) trying new lipstick products from Maybelline. Consumers could comment via a live message board within Meipai and a direct link embedded in the video stream directed visitors to the Tmall site of Maybelline, where they could buy the lipsticks they saw. 10,000 lipstick products were sold in just t

29、wo hours. Whilst the shopping festivals play to many types of product besides groceries, there is a natural benefit for retailers and brands in this space as the familiarity of buying online spreads. Singles Day has led to an increase in families trying the e-commerce channel for groceries from 30%

30、in 2013 to 49% in 2016. Asia has been leading the way in e-commerce for the past decade, most notably in China where more online purchases are made than anywhere else in the world. South Korea is the worlds largest market by value share for purchasing packaged goods online (16.6%). Japan, Taiwan and

31、 China are the next biggest in Asia. In contrast, there are many developing markets within this region that still rely on more traditional trade and have very low online adoption, but it is possible that as they develop they will skip over the stage of modern trade, such as supermarkets, and go stra

32、ight to online. E-commerce in Asia is very good at creating artificial festivals or events to celebrate a certain day. Often this manifests through an acronym or a word that sounds similar to something else, to create a reason for people to buy something for their loved ones. An example of this is C

33、hinas May the 20th (520) celebration. When pronounced in Chinese, 520 sounds like I love you. Using this wordplay as the perfect excuse retailers created the internets answer to Valentines Day. Meanwhile, 520s platonic antidote Singles Day (11th November) has become the largestonline shoppingday in

34、the world, with profits exceeding the USs Black Friday. Last year, it achieved record high sales of 91.2 billion RMB ($20 billion), 62.6 billion spent through the mobile app alone. It plays to key category strengths for e-commerce: 30% of sales were baby related; 22% comprised cosmetics. This year,

35、P even propose to them, all through VR technology. And thats not all, their idols also shopped with them for P youll not only see a cash store, but also a hospital and nail care service all in one place. Online were starting to see retailers not only selling wine or liquor but advising what kind of

36、liquor or wine is recommended for you. Its this additional helpful human element that is thriving in Japan. Interview with Mayuko Suzuki, Intage Japan TREND-CHASERS Personality People in this segment spend a lot of time watching TV, often using their smartphone at the same time. Easily influenced by

37、 mass media, the trend-chasers view adapting to and getting along with other people as very important. Brands and retailers should not make assumptions about the behaviour of certain demographic and age groups. In Japan particularly, the older generation are not as technology-illiterate as many assu

38、me. Information / brands to which they respond best Brands and products seen in magazines/commercials Limited edition/out of stock products Brands and products claiming POSITIVE INDIVIDUALISTS Personality For this group, expressing individuality is important. They enjoy finding and sharing informati

39、on based on their own tastes, and actively interact with other people. Information / brands to which they respond best Brands and products that differentiate them from others Brands that express their individuality/taste Brands that are “talked about” Information and brands trending on social media

40、ASIA 10.4 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60sAge Gender age distribution n Male 48.3% n Female 51.6% Gender age distribution n Male 49.7% n Female 50.3% to be authentic Items that stand out on the shelf Content marketing information This group moves most easily from a television commerci

41、al to the manufacturer website or official social networking page Preferred medium Out of home advertising Facebook Preferred medium YouTube Curation apps Instagram 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60sAge 9.3 11.8 10.5 6.4 15.0 14.3 14.8 4.3 3.2 9.1 11.8 16.0 10.3 2.5 0.0 7.4 7.3 16.8 12.

42、5 6.1 0.0 0.0 A look at the extent to which each segment shops online and collects online shopping information shows that e-commerce shopping is particularly prevalent in the “Trend-Chasers” and “Positive Individualists” segments A look at the extent to which each segment shops online and collects o

43、nline shopping information shows that e-commerce shopping is particularly prevalent in the “Trend-Chasers” and “Positive Individualists” segments. Their profiles suggest that their attitudes and behaviours are widely divergent: whereas one segment is easily influenced by mass media, the other is res

44、ponsive to information that is highly individualistic. By identifying these groups and what makes them tick, retailers working online in Japan can focus their marketing and advertising accordingly. EUROPEEUROPE 1312 well here because it satisfied the same replenishment and stock-up shopping mission

45、as the hypermarket but adds the crucial element of convenience, with no extra charge. Secondly, in France, Drive attracts suburban families: while for the overall French population penetration is around 22%, it jumps to 50% for families with young children. Market-leading supermarket chain E.Leclerc

46、 has embraced Drive as a key element of its channel strategy. The concept of hybridisation is something that traditional retailers will pursue, not merely as an opportunity but in order to rein in their expenditure and maximise their margins. Retailers simply cant afford to keep buying vans and hiri

47、ng drivers and pickers, its a very expensive way to make money. Supermarkets should try ideas such as part-bagging, where staple goods are packaged for consumers before they arrive at a store, freeing them up to shop for other more peripheral items. Anything that retailers can do to get consumers to

48、 take part in the shopping experience rather than do it themselves is important for their continued success. FRANCE EUROPE: A CONTINENT DIVIDED WHY IT WORKS OVER HERE, BUT NOT OVER THERE At an internet penetration rate of 73.5%, the European region is second only to North America in terms of connect

49、ivity. Still, varying levels of FMCG e-commerce share across the continent remains a puzzle. The UK (6.9%) and France (5.3%), for example, stand far ahead of Germany (1.2%), despite their proximity both geographically and as three of the five largest economies in the world. In fact, this incongruity should barely come as a surprise. Unlike their Asian and Latin American counterparts, European countries remain extraordinarily different from one another in terms of cultural values. Here our experts explore