1、 #BPstats BP p.l.c. 2017 BP 1 1 BP p.l.c. 2017 9 63 46 50 54 58 23 45 4 2 2 BP p.l.c. 2017 95 72 76 82 70 88 90 92 86 3 3 BP p.l.c. 2017 4 4 BP p.l.c. 2017 5 5 BP p.l.c. 2017 6 6 BP p.l.c. 2017 7 7 BP p.l.c. 2017 8 8 BP p.l.c. 2017 9 9 BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1975- 1995 1995- 2015 2015- 2035 0

2、% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1975- 1995 1995- 2015 2015- 2035 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1975- 1995 1995- 2015 2015- 2035 1010 BP p.l.c. 2017 1111 BP p.l.c. 2017 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1965- 1975 1975- 1985 1985- 1995 1995- 2005 2005- 2015 2015- 2025 2025- 203

3、5 1212 BP p.l.c. 2017 1313 BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1414 BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 1515 BP p.l.c. 2017 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0

4、 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 -20252025-2035 1616 BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 1717 BP p.l.c. 2017 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Coal Gas Hydro Renew. 1818 0 2 4 6 8 10 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 BP p.l.c. 2017 1919 BP p.l.c. 20

5、17 0 10 20 30 40 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1995-2015 2015-2035 2020 BP p.l.c. 2017 2121 BP p.l.c. 2017 2222 BP p.l.c. 2017 2323 BP p.l.c. 2017 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 2424 BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 2525 BP p.l.c. 2017 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1

6、.5 2.0 2005- 2010 2010- 2015 2015- 2020 2020- 2025 2025- 2030 2030- 2035 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2626 BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 2727 BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 520252035 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1995- 2005 2005- 2015

7、 2015- 2025 2025- 2035 2828 BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 2929 BP p.l.c. 2017 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 -2035 3030 BP p.l.c. 2017 3131 BP p.l.c. 2017 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 100 200 300 400 500 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

8、 2015 2025 2035 3232 BP p.l.c. 2017 3333 BP p.l.c. 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 520252035 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 520252035 3434 BP p.l.c. 2017 3535 BP p.l.c. 2017 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -19-2035 Conventional LNG Russian pipeline 0 1 2 3 4 5 5199520

9、05201520252035 3636 BP p.l.c. 2017 3737 BP p.l.c. 2017 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1995-2005 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1995-2005 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035 3838 BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 3939 BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 2

10、0% 30% 40% 1995-2015 2015-2035 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 520252035 4040 BP p.l.c. 2017 4141 BP p.l.c. 2017 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2015 2025 2035 2015 2025 2035 4242 BP p.l.c. 2017 4343 BP p.l.c. 2017 4444 BP p.l.c. 2017 4545 BP p.l.c. 2017 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0 50 100 150 200 250 201520202025

11、20302035 4646 BP p.l.c. 2017 4747 BP p.l.c. 2017 19 23 17 0.2 1.2 23 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 4848 BP p.l.c. 2017 4949 BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 5050 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2015- 2035 2015- 2050 BP p.l.c. 2017 5151 BP p.l.c. 201

12、7 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 5201520252035 5252 BP p.l.c. 2017 5353 BP p.l.c. 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 02035 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 02035 5454 BP p.l.c. 2017 5555 BP p.l.c. 2017 1717 5656 4444 5 5 1717 7 7 9 9 2222 1717 2 2 BP p.l.c. 2017

13、 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 5757 BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 3% 5% 8% 10% -20152015-2035 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 5858 BP p.l.c. 2017 5959 BP p.l.c. 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 52005201520252035 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 14

14、0 -20152015-2035 6060 BP p.l.c. 2017 6161 BP p.l.c. 2017 6262 BP p.l.c. 2017 6363 BP p.l.c. 2017 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 -0.9% -5.6% 15.0% -2.5% -1.9% -0.2% 7.9% -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 CO (RHS) -3.7% 6464 BP p.l.c. 2017 6565 BP p.l.c. 2017 GDP Fuel mix Base case growth -400

15、 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 200302035 0 1 2 3 4 5 520252035 6666 BP p.l.c. 2017 6767 BP p.l.c. 2017 GDP Fuel mix Base case growth -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 200252030 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 200252030 6868 BP p.l.c. 2017 6969 BP p.l.c. 2017 7070 BP p.l.

16、c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 7171 BP p.l.c. 2017 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 00500 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 -60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60% 7272 BP p.l.c. 2017 7373 BP p.l.c. 2017 15 20 25 15 20 25 7474 BP p.l.c. 2017 7575 BP p.l.c. 2017 8 7 7676 20 30 40 520252035 BP p.l.c. 2017 7777 B

17、P p.l.c. 2017 CO2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 2015-2035 2035 7878 BP p.l.c. 2017 7979 BP p.l.c. 2017 8080 BP p.l.c. 2017 8181 BP p.l.c. 2017 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 8282 BP p.l.c. 2017 8383 BP p.l.c. 2

18、017 0% 30% 60% 90% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Coal 0 5 10 15 20 8484 BP p.l.c. 2017 8585 BP p.l.c. 2017 8686 BP p.l.c. 2017 Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 8787 BP p.l.c. 2017 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 200020052002520302035204020452050 8888 BP p.l.c. 2017 8989 BP p.l.

19、c. 2017 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 5202020352050 9090 BP p.l.c. 2017 9191 BP p.l.c. 2017 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 020352050 Coal Gas Hydro Renew. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -20352035-2050 9292 BP p.l.c. 2017 9393 BP p.l.c. 2017 9494 BP p.l.c. 2017 9595 BP p.l.c. 2017 9696 BP

20、p.l.c. 2017 9797 BP p.l.c. 2017 9898 BP p.l.c. 2017 9999 BP p.l.c. 2017 -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 水电和其他可再生 能源 核能 煤炭 天然气 石油 100100 BP p.l.c. 2017 101101 BP p.l.c. 2017 IEA: IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2016 , Paris, France, November 2016 EIA: EIA: US

21、 Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2016, Washington, D.C., United States, May 2016 MIT: MIT: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2016 Food, Water, Energy and Climate Outlook, Cambridge, MA, United States, 2016 IEEJIEEJ: Institute of Energy Econ

22、omics Japan, Asia/World Energy Outlook 2016, Tokyo, Japan, October 2016 IHSIHS: IHS Energy, Rivalry: the IHS Planning Scenario, July 2016 PIRAPIRA: PIRA Energy Group, Scenario Planning Guidebook, Appendix, February 2016 XOMXOM: ExxonMobil, 2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, December 2016 CNPCC

23、NPC: CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, Energy Outlook 2050, 2016 GreenpeaceGreenpeace, Energy Revolution, September 2015 BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2016 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2016 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2016 UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, New York, United States, 2016 102102 BP p.l.c. 2017 103103