1、The Mobile Economy 2017 Copyright 2017 GSM Association The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting nearly 800 operators with almost 300 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet co

2、mpanies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces industry-leading events such as Mobile World Congress, Mobile World Congress Shanghai, Mobile World Congress Americas and the Mobile 360 Series of conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate

3、 website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghani

4、stan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to suppor

5、t strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. EXECUTI

6、VE SUMMARY2 1INDUSTRY OVERVIEW5 1.1Mobile adoption still rising, but growth continues to slow 10 1.2Technology shift ongoing14 1.3Revenue and investment trends18 2MOBILE DRIVING INNOVATION AND GROWTH21 2.1 Platforms, scale and the shift to open22 2.2The operator response26 2.3Mobile contributing to

7、jobs and economic growth31 3MOBILE ADDRESSING SOCIAL CHALLENGES36 3.1Mobile impact on Sustainable Development Goals37 3.2Call to the international development community: mobile can help deliver greater impact for social and economic initiatives 41 3.3Mobile delivering greater inclusion44 4RETHINKING

8、 REGULATION FOR THE DIGITAL AGE52 4.1Redesigning regulation54 4.2Resetting competition policy frameworks 54 4.3Spectrum and laying the foundations for 5G55 4.4Securing data and safeguarding privacy56 Contents THE MOBILE ECONOMY 2017 Contents 1 Subscriber growth pivoting to Asia Executive Summary 4G

9、uptake driving surge in mobile broadband adoption The generational shift to mobile broadband networks and smartphones continues to gain momentum. Mobile broadband connections (3G and 4G technologies) accounted for 55% of total connections in 2016 a figure that will be close to three quarters of the

10、connections base by 2020. The proportion of 4G connections alone is forecast to almost double from 23% to 41% by the end of the decade. 5G will see a major shift in how cellular networks are designed and what they are used for. Early deployments will focus on enhanced mobile broadband as the key cus

11、tomer proposition but 5Gs capabilities will evolve over time. 5G networks are forecast to cover around a third of the global population by 2025, with adoption reaching 1.1 billion connections. By the end of 2016, two thirds of the worlds population had a mobile subscription a total of 4.8 billion un

12、ique subscribers. There is a clear geographic shift underway, with Asia Pacific set to account for two thirds of the 860 million new subscribers expected globally by the end of the decade. India, already the worlds second largest mobile market, will be the primary driver of this growth, with 310 mil

13、lion new unique subscribers. By 2020, almost three quarters of the worlds population or 5.7 billion people will subscribe to mobile services. Regional penetration rates are forecast to range from 50% in Sub-Saharan Africa to 87% in Europe. THE MOBILE ECONOMY 2017 Executive Summary 2 Mobile revenue g

14、rowth outlook remains modest Shift in consumer engagement to mobile and the rise of the platform economy Total mobile revenues reached $1.05 trillion in 2016, up 2.2% on 2015, marking the second consecutive year of rising revenue growth. Developing markets saw a notable improvement in growth rates a

15、s the macroeconomic headwinds eased and key markets such as China and India posted encouraging growth rates. However, the future outlook remains mixed, with increasing competition, regulatory intervention and slowing subscriber growth weighing on revenue growth. Operators have invested $1.2 trillion

16、 in capex since 2010. With global mobile capex levels having peaked in 2015, they fell by 6% in 2016. Over the medium term, capex levels will continue to decline but at a slower rate, before returning to growth in 2020. Operators in advanced telecoms markets will begin to invest in the necessary inf

17、rastructure to support 5G towards the end of the decade, with any uplift in capex likely to occur as operators roll out 5G. The shift of consumer engagement to mobile is now manifesting itself in the rapid growth of messaging platforms, which are using their scale to monetise a growing range of serv

18、ices. With a global subscriber base that is soon to reach 5 billion, the mobile ecosystem has created a global digital platform that is increasingly connecting everyone and everything. The impact of this digital platform is felt across a broad range of sectors as companies reinvent their business mo

19、dels to offer new and innovative services. Players across the broader mobile ecosystem have already adopted open innovation strategies and embraced the power of collaborative partnerships, particularly those in the app economy and the mobile internet. Collaboration and open standards allow platforms

20、 to scale rapidly a key success factor when competing digital platforms have already achieved significant scale. Mobile operators are developing new business models that leverage these trends to offer new platforms and services. As well as opening the door to new revenue streams, these trends will a

21、llow a faster pace of innovation and raise the prospect of a lower cost operating model for operators at a time when margins and cash flows remain under pressure. Mobile contributing to jobs and economic growth In 2016, mobile technologies and services generated 4.4% of GDP globally, equivalent to a

22、round $3.3 trillion of economic value. This is forecast to increase to more than $4.2 trillion (4.9% of GDP) by 2020, as countries benefit from the improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by increased take-up of mobile services. The mobile ecosystem supported approximately 28 milli

23、on jobs in 2016. The mobile sector also makes a substantial contribution to the funding of the public sector, with approximately $450 billion raised in 2016 in the form of general taxation. In addition, almost $19 billion was raised in government revenue through spectrum auctions in 2016. THE MOBILE

24、 ECONOMY 2017 Executive Summary 3 Rethinking regulation for the digital age Mobile is essential to realising the SDGs and addressing social challenges The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their associated targets outline a broad and ambitious agenda that integrates economic, social and en

25、vironmental issues across all geographies and applies both to developed and developing economies. Mobile technology provides access to tools and applications that address a wide range of socioeconomic challenges as well as enabling new technologies and innovations to build more efficient and environ

26、mentally sustainable societies. Mobile technology also plays a critical role in fulfilling the ambitions of universal internet access, closing the identification gap and expanding financial inclusion. The number of individuals accessing the internet over mobile devices has doubled over the past five

27、 years to 3.6 billion, and will rise to 4.7 billion, equivalent to 60% of the global population, by 2020. The spread of mobile and digital technologies offers a transformative opportunity to achieve development aims and improve access to a range of life-enhancing services. The fundamental changes ta

28、king place in telecoms markets and adjacent sectors have major implications for all aspects of policy, including regulatory frameworks, anti-trust reviews and the way spectrum is allocated. In order to drive the transition to more connected societies, it is important that the regulatory environment

29、continues to evolve. Prescriptive regulatory frameworks, which were designed for a less dynamic era, can be redesigned to encourage innovation and investment. The new features of the digital market call for a different and more nuanced approach to competition policy. Governments should ensure their

30、competition and regulatory frameworks reflect how the market has evolved and provide a sound foundation for ongoing competition, investment and innovation that benefits everyone. Furthermore, the release of harmonised spectrum in the right frequencies, at the right time, and under the right conditio

31、ns is crucial to the development of a rich and vibrant digital economy. In particular, governments need to identify now the harmonised spectrum that will be required to enable 5G to transform economies and societies for the better. As the digital economy is increasingly global, governments across th

32、e world should seek to harmonise international privacy and data protection rules. This requires accountability mechanisms to protect individuals privacy effectively and enable the cross-border data flows necessary to develop an efficient, global digital economy. The mobile industry is engaging with

33、policymakers to make these mechanisms interoperable. Ultimately, global harmonisation will benefit businesses and consumers alike by creating a consistent and clear set of data protection and privacy rules that apply across international borders. THE MOBILE ECONOMY 2017 Executive Summary 4 Industry

34、overview 1 5 Industry overview THE MOBILE ECONOMY 2017 GLOBAL MARKET ACCELERATING MOVES TO MOBILE BROADBAND NETWORKS AND SMARTPHONE ADOPTION 73% 5.7bn 47% by 2020 By 2020, there will be smartphones, growth of 1.9 billion from the end of 2016 over the period 20162020 Mobile broadband connections to i

35、ncrease from 55% of total in 2016 to Mobile data trafc to grow by a CAGR of 2016 2020 Data growth driving revenues and operator investments Operator total revenues $1.05 trillion $1.14 trillion 2.1% CAGR 201620 Operator CAPEX of up to $700 billion for the period 201720 Unique mobile subscribers SIM

36、connections *Excluding M2M Source: Ericsson 2016 2020 7.9 billion 9.7 billion 4% CAGR 201620 2016 2020 4.8 billion 5.7 billion 4.2% CAGR 201620 PENETRATION RATE* 100% 112% PENETRATION RATE 65% 73% EmploymentPublic funding 28.5 million 30.9 million Mobile ecosystem contribution to public funding (bef

37、ore regulatory and spectrum fees) Jobs directly and indirectly supported by the mobile ecosystem Mobile contributing to economic and social development across the world $4.2tn $3.3tn 4.9% GDP 4.4% GDP Delivering digital inclusion to the still unconnected populations. Delivering fi nancial inclusion

38、to the unbanked populations. As of December 2016 there were Delivering innovative new services and apps. Number of M2M connections to reach Mobile industry contribution to GDP DIGITAL INCLUSION FINANCIAL INCLUSION INNOVATION $450bn $500bn 2016 2020 2016 2020 2016 2020 MOBILE INTERNET PENETRATION 201

39、6 48% 202060% 277 live mobile money services in 92 countries 1bn by 2020 Data growth driving revenues and operator investments Operator total revenues $1.05 trillion $1.14 trillion 2.1% CAGR 201620 Operator CAPEX of up to $700 billion for the period 201720 Unique mobile subscribers SIM connections *

40、Excluding M2M Source: Ericsson 2016 2020 7.9 billion 9.7 billion 4% CAGR 201620 2016 2020 4.8 billion 5.7 billion 4.2% CAGR 201620 PENETRATION RATE* 100% 112% PENETRATION RATE 65% 73% 2016 2016 2020 2020 65% 51% 76% 63% Asia Pacific 4G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX 2

41、8% 47% 26% 2016 2020 27% 28% 45% 2016 2016 2020 2020 78% 48% 83% 66% CIS 4G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX 28% 58% 34% 2016 2020 9% 37% 35% 2016 2016 2020 2020 65% 51% 73% 65% Global 4G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX 27% 45% 32% 2016 20

42、20 23% 32% 41% 2016 2016 2020 2020 84% 65% 87% 75% Europe 4G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX 14% 25% 42% 2016 2020 33% 25% 61% 8 THE MOBILE ECONOMY 2017 Industry overview 2016 2016 2020 2020 59% 46% 62% 64% MENA 4G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNO

43、LOGY MIX 33% 53% 41% 2016 2020 6% 49% 19% 2016 2016 2020 2020 81% 77% 85% 79% North America 4G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX 5% 10% 29% 2016 2020 62% 12% 82% 2016 2016 2020 2020 70% 55% 78% 70% Latin America 4G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLO

44、GY MIX 22% 39% 45% 2016 2020 16% 41% 38% 2016 2016 2020 2020 44% 28% 50% 55% Sub-Saharan Africa 4G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX 41% 67% 30% 2016 2020 2% 47% 12% 9 THE MOBILE ECONOMY 2017 Industry overview Asia PacificCISEuropeLatin AmericaMENANorthern AmericaSub-Sah

45、aran Africa At the end of 2016, 65% of the worlds population had a mobile subscription a total of 4.8 billion unique mobile subscribers. The total is set to reach 5 billion in mid-2017. By 2020, almost 860 million new subscribers will be added, taking the global penetration rate to 73%. However, mob

46、ile subscriber growth is slowing; we expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% between 2016 and 2020, compared to 5.6% over the preceding four years. With developed markets approaching saturation, developing markets will account for nine out of ten new subscribers in the four years to 2020

47、. Asia Pacific will add approximately 571 million unique subscribers, representing two thirds of new subscriber growth globally over the same period. Annual subscriber growth in Sub-Saharan Africa the worlds most under-penetrated region is expected to be 6.2%. Unique subscribers by region (Millions)

48、 1.1 Mobile adoption still rising, but growth continues to slow Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 1 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 20000172020 10 Industry overview THE MOBILE ECONOMY 2017 Ten countries will account for 72% of growth in new mobile subscribers wor

49、ldwide. There is a clear geographic shift underway, with Asia set to account for two thirds of the incremental subscriber growth over the forecast period. India, already the worlds second largest mobile market, will be the primary driver of this growth, with 310 million new unique subscribers expected in the period to 2020, helped by improving affordability, falling device prices and better network coverage. This is followed by China and fast-growth Asian markets including Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. IndiaMexicoNigeriaBrazilMyanmar