1、Industry Agenda Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2017 World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 Email: contactweforum.org www.weforum.org World Economic Forum 2017 All rights reserved. No part

2、of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. REF 161216 Prepared in collaboration with Accenture 3Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2017 Contents 4 Acknowl

3、edgements 4 Foreword 6 Executive summary 8 Methodology 9 EAPI 2017 results 10 Key findings 15 Steering energy systems through transition 23 Concluding remarks 24 Appendices 24 Addendum on methodology 26 Weights, measures and abbreviations 27 Endnotes 28 References 4Global Energy Architecture Perform

4、ance Index Report 2017 Acknowledgements Contributors The World Economic Forum is pleased to acknowledge and thank the individuals and partners listed here, without whom the Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2017 would not have been possible. Chief Expert Advisers Morgan Bazilian, L

5、ead Energy Specialist, World Bank Davide Puglielli, Senior Manager, Strategy and Mergers and Acquisitions, Enel David Victor, Professor of International Relations and Director, Laboratory on International Law, University of California, San Diego; Chair, Global Agenda Council on Governance for Sustai

6、nability Eirik Wrness, Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist, Statoil Data Partners International Energy Agency (IEA), German Federal Enterprise for International Cooperation (GIZ), World Bank Group (WBG), World Trade Organization (WTO), UN SE4ALL, UN Statistics Division and UNCTADstat This repo

7、rt marks the fifth annual edition of the global Energy Architecture Performance Index (EAPI), which examines the progress of the global energy transition that of moving towards more sustainable, affordable and secure energy systems by benchmarking the energy systems of 127 countries. During the Worl

8、d Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2012 in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, executives of the worlds largest energy companies, policy-makers and thought leaders from across the energy value chain were asked: To what extent do you expect global energy systems to change over the next ten years? An overwhelmi

9、ng 90% expressed the belief that significant change would occur across energy architectures around the world, and nearly one-third predicted a radical shift in the way energy is sourced, transformed and consumed. Five years on and at the midway point, the world has indeed witnessed unprecedented str

10、uctural changes in the global energy system, as evidenced across the three sides of the “energy triangle”: Economic growth and development: World energy consumption has continued to grow since 2012, albeit at a slower rate than seen in the previous decade. Much of this growth has been driven by deve

11、loping countries, whose development is founded on energy. The economics of producing this energy have experienced significant change. The average price of oil in 2016 was 60% lower than five years ago.1 The emergence of unconventional oil, rising energy efficiency and slowing growth in emerging mark

12、ets contributed to a sustained supply glut and a downtrend in prices starting at the end of 2014. In response, planned global upstream capital spending was cut by over 30%,2 with some predicting a potential hydrocarbon shortage as a result. By 2015, the basket of the worlds top 20 oil and gas compan

13、ies had lost a third of their market value (1)(2). Contrastingly, 10 of the worlds biggest utility companies have seen their combined market capitalization increase by over 26%.3 Foreword Muqsit Ashraf Managing Director, Accenture Strategy - Energy Roberto Bocca Head of Energy and Basic Industries a

14、nd Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum Project Adviser: Accenture Strategy - Energy Muqsit Ashraf, Managing Director James Collins, Managing Director Michael Moore, Senior Manager Tessa Lennartz-Walker, Manager Richard Standring, Consultant, (Lead Author) Additional acknowledgeme

15、nts: Christian von Celsing, Chhavi Maggu, Jenna Trescott World Economic Forum Roberto Bocca, Head of Energy and Basic Industries, Member of the Executive Committee Espen Mehlum, Head of Knowledge Management and Integration, Energy Industries (Project Lead) Thierry Geiger, Head of Analytics and Quant

16、itative Research, Global Competitiveness and Risks Additional acknowledgements: Roderick Weller 5Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2017 Environmental sustainability: Global power markets are transforming in favour of sustainable infrastructure. The share of solar in world power gen

17、eration has almost doubled every two years since 2000, and every four years for wind. With each doubling, the cost of solar falls 24% and that of wind, 19% (3). These trends suggest a permanent shift in the energy mix of the future, marked by a decline in coal consumption, the rising importance of n

18、atural gas and renewables, and improved energy productivity in major economies, such as China and the United States. Growing electrification of the worlds secondary energy supply, and the digitization of the grid, are indicative of a shift in energy systems and their sustainability. Nowhere is elect

19、rification more prominent than in the growing market for electric vehicles; pre-orders for Teslas new model in 2015 broke the record for the single biggest one-week product launch in history (4). In November 2016, the Paris Agreement on climate change came into force a landmark moment for the intern

20、ational community committed to collectively accelerating the transition to a clean-energy economy. The adoption of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Sustainable Development Goals also signalled renewed emphasis on the need for affordable, clean energy. Energy access

21、and security: Many countries have set forth ambitious plans for their new energy architectures, aiming to take advantage of technological developments and diversify the composition of their supplies to meet rising energy needs and increase security. Countries have increasingly looked to drive securi

22、ty through exploiting indigenous renewable and fossil fuel energy sources. The United States shale boom has placed the country in a position where it is expected to become a net exporter of gas this decade, having lifted its 40-year ban on crude oil exports in 2016. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has g

23、ained share in the world energy market, coinciding with regional shifts in trade and historical importers becoming exporters, and vice versa. The emergence of a more flexible global market is further signalled by almost a third of LNG now trading on the spot market, as compared to almost exclusively

24、 on fixed-term contracts in the past. The oversupplied market has placed more power into buyers hands, with significant impact on countries supply mixes, diversification strategies and trading relationships. For instance, alongside rising domestic energy demand and threatened export revenues, Saudi

25、Arabia, the worlds largest oil producer, has set diversification goals in its 2030 Vision. Below the surface of the momentous shifts of the past five years, the energy system has started to turn, much akin to a colossal tanker pointing in a new direction but still very far from its destination. Alth

26、ough many countries have made important leaps forward, average performance of countries on the index has been generally sluggish, increasing by less than two basis points over the last five years. The EAPI reveals that countries continue to face residual challenges as they look to make progress on t

27、heir energy systems, complicated by unforeseeable factors and market instability. Overall global economic recovery has been slow, the Fukushima Daiichi power plant disaster rattled public opinion and stalled prospects for nuclear energy, and low oil prices have slashed investment. Moreover, energy s

28、upply spending is at its lowest level since 2010 (5). The composition of the worlds energy consumption changed very little from 2010 to 2014. A 1.4% increase in renewables (including hydropower and biofuels) over this period contrasts with slight decreases in liquid fuels and natural gas, while coal

29、 consumption increased by 0.2% (6). The rise of renewables in the electricity sector has been more pronounced, as they overtook coal as the worlds largest source of power capacity, although not generation, in 2016 (7). Access to electricity remains a major challenge; over 17% of the worlds populatio

30、n still has no access, and many more suffer from poor quality of supply (8). While global investment in renewable energy has risen, investment in developed countries has declined since peaking in 2011 (9). Much work remains to meet the ambitious targets ratified in the Paris Agreement following the

31、United Nations 21st annual Conference of the Parties (COP21). In March 2016, and for the first time since records were kept, global levels of carbon dioxide were sustained above 400 parts per million for one month (10). Looking ahead to the next five years, and with many conflicting scenarios around

32、 the demand for energy, the transition to a more sustainable, affordable, secure and inclusive energy system has taken on a pronounced urgency and immediacy. The digitization of the economy and the energy system will be a boon for energy-sector actors to leverage in order to drive the transition, al

33、though it will also lead to new complexities requiring management, not least from a security perspective. Managing the transition to a new energy architecture is not easy. The imperatives of the energy triangle may reinforce or act in tension with each other, forcing difficult trade-offs to be made.

34、 As nations contemplate how to respond to changing energy dynamics and implement global commitments, this years report highlights the lessons learned from top performers on the EAPI and presents a guide for steering energy systems through transition. Ambition of the Global Energy Architecture Perfor

35、mance Index The EAPI, developed by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Accenture, looks at trends and the real performance of countries energy systems. Since its launch five years ago, the EAPI has contributed to the global benchmarking of energy systems, highlighting topical energy issue

36、s and providing guidance on making energy transitions more effective. This years report includes the findings from benchmarking 127 countries on 18 indicators covering contribution to economic growth and development, environmental sustainability, and energy access and security. Like any index, the E

37、API cannot fully reflect the complexity of energy systems or of managing energy transitions. It can, however, serve to benchmark the performance of national energy systems, providing a basis for comparison across nations. The EAPI offers the latest available global energy data, aiding policy formati

38、on by providing a reliable indicator of strengths and target areas for improvement. 6Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2017 Executive summary The results of the global Energy Architecture Performance Index (EAPI) 2017 highlight key trends in the energy transition moving towards mor

39、e sustainable, affordable and secure energy systems around the world, as well as the challenges countries continue to face, individually and as cohorts. Looking back at five years of data from the EAPI, this report also distils insights from countries that have shown significant improvements in perf

40、ormance or remained consistently high performers. EAPI 2017: Key insights Top performers come in all shapes and sizes: While many of this years top performers tend to be smaller countries, both in size of gross domestic product and population, and typically have advanced economies, a significant num

41、ber of countries do not fit this mould. These exceptions demonstrate that few constraints are limiting high performance. In fact, top performers come in all shapes and sizes. Their many variations underscore the potential for any country to make improvements in providing secure, affordable and susta

42、inable energy to its population, regardless of its context. European countries dominate the leader board: As in previous years, countries from Europe continue to hold many of the top 20 ranks on the EAPI, with the exceptions of Colombia (8th), New Zealand (9th), Uruguay (10th) and Costa Rica (14th).

43、 This strong performance is underpinned by advantages gained through a long history of coordination between European nations, which is a model for regional cooperation. These countries score particularly high on using market forces (reflected in low levels of price distortion) and on the diversity o

44、f their energy mix. However, many of them have significant room for improvement, especially in continuing to ensure security of supply given the low level of resource endowment across the continent. The worlds biggest energy consumers are being outperformed: Major energy consumers continue to strugg

45、le to take leading positions on the EAPI. While showing strengths in certain areas, and early signs of strong trajectories in others, China (95th), India (87th), Japan (45th), the Russian Federation (48th) and the United States (52nd) have either slipped in the rankings since the EAPI 2009 benchmark

46、 or experienced only marginal gains. Their energy consumption dwarfs that of the highest-performing top 20. Big consumers need to intensify their efforts and overcome the inherent challenges of their large, complex energy systems; doing so will allow them to make a disproportionately positive impact

47、 on global energy architecture. With the worlds energy markets underpinned by the global economys performance, the global energy sector will continue to be challenged for as long as these countries some of the largest economies in the world have difficulty exceeding average performance. Top-ranked c

48、ountries and the rest of the table exhibit a growing divide in performance: Since last year, the top 20 highest-performing countries have achieved twice the average increase in EAPI score compared to that of all other countries. This difference in improving performance reflects a further strengtheni

49、ng of energy sectors in countries already performing well, and an opportunity for other countries to understand these journeys more closely ultimately so that they can interpret these in the context of their own transitions. The global energy system is often perceived as slow to change, which is reflected by the modest improvement of less than two basis points in average score versus the EAPI 2009 benchmark. However, a number of countries have made significant improvements in this time frame and climbed the ranks, challenging the view of collective i