1、U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T Harnessing Frontier Technologies for Sustainable Development TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT2018 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2018 UNCTADUNITED NATIONS U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D

2、 E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T H Ha a a ar rn n ne e es s ss s si i in n ng g g F F Fronti ie er r T Te ec ch hn no ol log gi ie es s f fo or r S Su us st ta ai in na ab bl le e D De ev ve e el l lo o op pm m me e en nt t TECHNOLOGY ANDTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORTINNOVATION REPORT New York and G

3、eneva, 2018 | TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2018ii HARNESSING FRONTIER TECHNOLOGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2018, United Nations The work is available open access by complying with the Creative Commons license created for intergovernmental organizations, available at http:/creativecommons.org

4、/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. The designation employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning th

5、e delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits. The publication has been edited externally. United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION UNCTAD/TIR/201

6、8 Sales No. E.18.II.D.3 ISSN 2076-2917 ISBN 978-92-1-112925-0 e-ISBN 978-92-1-363310-6 Copyright United Nations, 2018 All rights reserved. Printed in Switzerland iii FOREWORD FOREWORD We live at a time of technological change that is unprecedented in its pace, scope and depth of impact. Harnessing t

7、hat progress is the surest path for the international community to deliver on the 2030 agenda for people, peace and prosperity. Frontier technologies hold the promise to revive productivity and make plentiful resources available to end poverty for good, enable more sustainable patterns of growth and

8、 mitigate or even reverse decades of environmental degradation. But technological change and innovation need to be directed towards inclusive and sustainable outcomes through a purposeful effort by governments, in collaboration with civil society, business and academia. If policy-makers are not proa

9、ctive technological disruption can entrench inequality, further marginalize the poorest, and fuel reactionary movements against open societies and economies. The Technology and Innovation Report 2018: Harnessing Frontier Technologies for Sustainable Development notes that change is becoming exponent

10、ial thanks to the power of digital platforms and innovative combinations of different technologies that become possible every day. This opens exciting possibilities for the democratization of frontier technologies to materialize in development solutions. The Report proposes strategies and actions, s

11、ome of them based on existing experiences in STI policy for development, and some more innovative ones to make technology an effective means of implementation of our common development agenda nationally and globally. The Report also suggests that countries develop policies to help people navigate th

12、e transition period that lies ahead. This may require that stakeholders adapt the social contract to the new world that frontier technologies are forming. Education will become an even more indispensable lever for development and social justice. Since digital technologies as enablers and multipliers

13、 of other frontier technologies we should ensure that all and specially women and girls are given a real chance to build digital capabilities. Lifelong learning will need to be supported. For those who may struggle to keep up with the transformation, countries will have to be innovative in providing

14、 effective social protection mechanisms. Most crucially, there is an urgent need for a sustained effort by the international community to ensure that the multiple gaps in technological capabilities that separate developed and developing countries are closed. Investment in hard and soft infrastructur

15、e and human capital, complemented by a scaled up, coherent and accelerated effort to enhance innovation systems for sustainable development are necessary to spread the ? By providing a platform for policy dialogue and experience-sharing, and through our capacity-building programmes, UNCTAD and the U

16、N Commission for Science and Technology for Development, which we service, ? intention is that the Technology and Innovation Report 2018 will help launch a dialogue about how to harness technology for the achievement of the SDGs and in larger and more profound sense, the shared future of the people

17、of the world. Mukhisa Kituyi Secretary-General of UNCTAD | TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2018iv HARNESSING FRONTIER TECHNOLOGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Technology and Innovation Report 2018 was written by an UNCTAD team led by Shamika N. Sirimanne, Director of the Divisi

18、on on Technology and Logistics. The team members included Bob Bell, Pilar Fajarns, Angel ? Major substantive inputs were provided by Shashi Buluswar (Institute for Transformative Technologies), Dominique Foray (cole Polytechnique Fdrale de Lausanne), Banning Garrett (Singularity University) and ? Lo

19、ndon) and Alfred Watkins (Global Solutions Summit). Visualization contributions by Elsevier based on Scopus data, particularly those of Jeroen Baas (Head of Data Science, Research Intelligence, Elsevier), are gratefully acknowledged. Comments and suggestions provided at an internal peer review meeti

20、ng by the following UNCTAD staff are also gratefully acknowledged: Rashmi Banga, Marisa Henderson, Kalman Kalotay, Dong Wu and Anida Yupari. Useful written comments were also given by Jan Hoffmann. ? ? Cristina Chaminade (Lund University), Neth Dao (Action Group on Erosion, Technology and Concentrat

21、ion), ? ? The manuscript was edited by David Woodward and Michael Gibson. Magali Studer was responsible for the cover design. Nathalie Loriot was responsible for the layout. Administrative support was provided by Malou Pasinos. v ABBREVIATIONS ABBREVIATIONS ASEANAssociation of Southeast Asian Nation

22、s BDABig Data Analysis Initiative (Malaysia) CERN? CRISPRclustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats FDIforeign direct investment GDPgross domestic product GIFGlobal Innovation Fund GPSglobal positioning system HAPShigh-altitude platform station ICTinformation and communication technol

23、ogy IDCInternational Data Corporation ILO? IoTInternet of Things IPintellectual property IPRintellectual property right kWh kilowatt-hour LDCleast developed country M (b) the exponential nature of technologies such as microchips, which have doubled in power every two years for half a century; (c) th

24、e convergence of technologies into new combinations; (d) dramatic reductions in costs; (e) the emergence of digital “platforms of platforms” most notably the Internet; and (f) declining entry costs. Several frontier technologies show the greatest potential to enable the achievement of the Sustainabl

25、e Development Goals. Big data analysis can help to manage or resolve critical global issues, create new ? improve decision-making, by providing real-time streams of information. The Internet of Things allows the condition and actions of connected objects and machines to be monitored and managed, and

26、 allows more effective monitoring of the natural world, animals and people. These two technologies have important applications in health care, agriculture, energy and water management and quality, as well as in monitoring development indicators to assess progress towards the Sustainable Development

27、Goals. Governments should consider developing strategies to harness these technologies towards their development goals. ? ? now includes capabilities in image recognition, problem solving and logical reasoning that sometimes exceed those of humans. ? robotics, also has the potential to transform pro

28、duction processes and business, especially in manufacturing. So too does 3D printing, which can allow faster and cheaper low-volume production of complex products and components, and rapid iterative prototyping of new manufactured products. In addition to offering some potential carbon savings by re

29、ducing the need to ? in health care, construction and education. Extraordinary advances in ? allow very ? ? ? ? ? ? ? personalized treatments possible for certain conditions ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? animals. ? the manufacture and use ? ? (battery storage), agriculture (precise management of the release o

30、f agrochemicals), ICT (reducing the size of electronic components) and medicine (delivery mechanisms for medication). ? ? technologies allow the provision of electricity in remote and isolated rural areas inaccessible to centralized grid systems, while drones could revolutionize the delivery of supp

31、lies, enable precision agriculture and replace | TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2018xii HARNESSING FRONTIER TECHNOLOGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT humans in dangerous tasks. Small-scale customized ? will soon be affordable for more developing countries, businesses and universities, allowing moni

32、toring of crops and environmental damage. II. ECONOMIC AND SOCIETAL CHALLENGES The relationship between technology and employment has long been controversial. Like earlier technological advances, frontier technologies can be expected to eliminate some jobs, while creating others. While the net effec

33、t on employment remains ambiguous, there are already signs of a polarization of employment between low- and high-skilled non-routine jobs, as jobs at medium skill levels have declined. There are also signs that the net impacts may be most unfavourable for women. For most developing countries, the im

34、pact of frontier technologies on employment is likely to depend less on their technological feasibility than on their economic feasibility. Fears about short-term adverse effects of digitalization and automation on employment may be exaggerated, particularly if labour and education policies promote

35、complementarity between skills available in the workforce and new technologies. Since the impact of technology depends on the structure of each countrys economy, the impact at the national level cannot be assumed to be necessarily negative, but rather requires a balanced analysis of the net effects

36、of technological and market forces. Thus, the future lies in workers creating economic value with machines rather than against them. Effects on productivity are also ambiguous, as emerging technologies will by no means be universally adopted. Expert opinion is divided between those who see a secular

37、 decline in productivity, and those ? adopt new technologies and reach historically high ? the interpretation of current trends is complicated by issues pertaining to the appropriateness of existing indicators to measure productivity in the new technological era. Emerging digital technologies such a

38、s big data and the Internet of Things also give rise to important issues of citizens rights, privacy, data ownership and online security. This highlights the need for effective institutional frameworks and regulatory regimes for data collection, use and access, to safeguard privacy and security, bal

39、ancing individual and collective rights and allowing private sector innovation. Similar considerations apply to concerns about technological convergence driving simultaneous convergence in platforms, commercial interest and investments that can result in concentration of market power. While the impl

40、ications of frontier technologies remain uncertain, it is clear that they hold the potential for profound positive implications for almost every aspect of sustainable development. They also involve a potential risk of exacerbating existing economic, social and technological divides, as countries wit

41、h strong existing capabilities harness new technologies for development, leaving others ever further behind. Applying technology to the challenges of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals requires building local capacities and developing policies and an enabling environment as well as unpreced

42、ented resource mobilization, partnerships and multilateral global collaboration to (a) fund research and development (R (b) build networks; (c) strengthen the global sciencepolicy interface; (d) transfer technologies; and (e) support the development of capabilities in developing countries. Current n

43、ational and international efforts are seriously inadequate for this task. Wide and persistent gaps in STI capacities, ? STI limit the discovery, development, dissemination and absorption of technologies that could accelerate the achievement of the SDGs. Alongside resource mobilization, a scaled up a

44、nd accelerated application of policies is needed to enhance innovation systems for sustainable development and spread the ? technologies. III. THE DIVIDE IN TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES Capabilities are critical to countries ability to exploit the opportunities offered by new and emerging technologies and there is a wide gap in capabilities between developed and developing countries. R (b) The institutional setting and governance, which should be oriented towards incentivizing actors to invest in productive rather than rent-seeking activities; (c) The entrepre