1、SHANGHAI INduStrIAl MArket report Q3 2018 上海工业市场季度报告 2018 年第三季度 RESEARCH 研究报告 32 RESEARCHSHAngHAi induStRiAl MARKEt REPORt Q3 2018 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12

2、Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 growth rate % RMB/sqm/day Logistics rent (left)Q-o-Q growth rate (right) According to China Federation of Logistics Utilised FDI achieved US$4.3

3、83 billion, a decrease of 5.2% Y-o-Y. Due to land scarcity, we expect that logistics warehouse rents will grow steadily with an increase of 3% to 4% quarter on quarter (Q-o-Q); industrial factory rents will increase by 2% to 3% Q-o-Q in a year. Since many logistics warehouses are to be delivered in

4、the fourth quarter (Q4), the vacancy rate of logistics warehouse will increase slightly to 9%. loGIStICS propertIeS Source: knight Frank research eNterING tHe trAdItIoNAl oFF-SeASoN, tHe loGIStICS propertY MArket SeeN doMINAted BY WAIt-ANd-See plAYerS As the traditional off-season occurs in the thir

5、d quarter (Q3), various macro- economic indicators saw growth slowdown and the market witnessed fewer new leases in the industrial property market. rents of logistics warehouse and industrial factory remained stable. FIGure 1 Average rent and Q-o-Q growth rate of logistics warehouse properties, Q3 2

6、018 stricter, making some potential occupiers adopt wait-and-see attitude or choose to lease warehouses outside Shanghai. Therefore, Shanghai logistics warehouse rent in Q3 remained unchanged over the last quarter at RMB1.55 per sqm per day. The vacancy rate of logistics warehouse also stayed flat a

7、t 8%. On the supply side, several logistics facilities will be completed by the end of 2018. For example, ESR, the logistics property developer, will have its logistics facilities next to Pudong International Airport added to the market, with approximately 100,000 sqm. ESR Shanghai Qingpu Logistics

8、Park will be completed in Q4 with a land area of 63,365 sqm and a total gross floor area (GFA) of 92,803 sqm. 54 RESEARCHSHAngHAi induStRiAl MARKEt REPORt Q3 2018 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 MinhangPudongSongjiangQingpuJinshanJiadingFengxian million RMB/mu The low season of industrial factory market

9、 also occurs in Q3, with the average rent for single-floor factory space remained unchanged Q-o-Q at RMB1.22 per sqm per day. In Q3, in terms of districts, industrial factory rents of Minhang and Pudong districts were the highest, reaching RMB1.49 per sqm per day and 1.35 per sqm per day respectivel

10、y. Qingpu and Fengxian districts came in third and fourth with the factory rents at RMB1.28 per sqm per day and 1.26 per sqm per day respectively. The factory rent in Jinshan district was relatively low, reaching approximately RMB1.0 per sqm per day. In Q3 2018, new factory projects were launched in

11、 Jinshan and Qingpu districts. In Shanghai (Jinshan) International Industrial Park (Phase l) Project, with a total new factory space of approximately 100,000 sqm completed. With the total investment of RMB410 million, the project has thirteen buildings, including two single-floor standard factories,

12、 three two- storey standard factories, four three-storey standard factories and one four-storey mixed-use building. Each building has factory space of 6,500 sqm to 19,000 sqm. Those factories will be handed over by the end of 2018. In Qingpu Industrial Park, a multiple-storey factory project was com

13、pleted with a total factory space of approximately 30,000 sqm, comprising six detached buildings, including one five-storey main office building and five 4.2-metre high workshops. In Q3, the influx of both domestic and international manufacturing enterprises has driven up demand for industrial facto

14、ries. On 10 July, Tesla signed the investment FACtorIeS -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15

15、 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 growth rate % RMB/sqm/day Factory Rent (left)Q-o-Q growth rate (right) Source: knight Frank research FIGure 2 Average rent and Q-o-Q growth rate of single-floor factories, Q3 2018 contract for electric vehicles with

16、 Shanghai Lingang Management Committee and Lingang Group. On 17 October, Tesla China announced that it acquired an industrial land in Lingang Area for RMB973 million with a total site area of 864,885 sqm. Tesla set up Shanghai Gigafactory with an annual capacity of 500,000 vehicles in Lingang Area.

17、This is the largest foreign-invested manufacturing project in Shanghais history. Tesla has also become the first foreign owned company which built factories after China loosened the restrictions on foreign- invested shares in auto industry. On 19 October, SAIC Volkswagen New Energy Vehicle Plant sta

18、rted construction in Anting, Shanghai with a total investment of RMB17 billion and a land area of 405,600 sqm. Scheduled to commence operation in 2020 with an annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles, SAIC Volkswagen New Energy Vehicle Plant is SAIC Volkswagens first attempt to build for the production o

19、f MEB electric vehicles. The entry of these automobile producers will entice more automobile component manufacturers, boosting the demand for industrial factories. In Q3, the primary industrial land market of Shanghai was active with 23 industrial plots being traded, with a total land area of 958,59

20、7 sqm. The traded plots and land area decreased 4.2% and 16.5% Q-o-Q respectively. Most land was concentrated in Pudong and Songjiang districts. Pudong led the market in traded land area, reaching 385,196.6 sqm. Songjiang came in second with the traded land area of 173,698.5 sqm. In the number of tr

21、aded plots, Jiading District led the market with traded plots reaching six, accounting for 26% of the total figures in Shanghai. Songjiang, Minhang and Jinshan districts ranked the second with traded plots reaching four, accounting for 17% of the total figures in Shanghai, respectively. On 30 July,

22、Xiuzheng Biopharmaceutical (Shanghai) Company Limited acquired an industrial land-Plot V-49-1 in Songjiang Industrial Zone for RMB203 million, with a land area of 133,092.9 sqm, showing Xiuzheng Groups attempt to develop an international pharmaceutical manufacturing base focusing on biopharmaceutica

23、l in Songjiang. In terms of sales price, Minhang District again recorded the highest average industrial land price in Q3, reaching RMB1.14 million per mu (1 mu=666.7 sqm). Pudong New Area secured the second place with a unit price of RMB0.97 million per mu. Fengxians land price was relatively low, r

24、eaching RMB0.35 million per mu. SAleS ANd INVeStMeNt lANd MArket FIGure 4 Primary industrial land price by district, Q3 2018 Source: Shanghai planning and land resource Bureau, knight Frank research FIGure 3 Transacted area of primary industrial land by district, Q3 2018 In recent years, Qingpu Indu

25、strial Park, together with Liando Group through strategic cooperation, is devoted to the redevelopment of industrial lands and supporting the transformation and upgrading of the industrial park. In Q3, Liando purchased Qingpu Industrial Project from Shitong Group for RMB165 million, with a land area

26、 of 45,000 sqm and a total GFA of approximately 17,000 sqm. Due to its operational strategy adjustment, Shitong Group decided to completely leave the Chinese market in 2017. Liando U Valley, as a strategic partner of Qingpu government, took over Shitong Project and intended to create artificial inte

27、lligence (AI) industrialized bases and clusters of intelligent manufacturing industry with an estimated production of RMB500 million. The transaction process of the investment project lasted for a year and were finally closed in Q3 2018. Many logistics facility investors were optimistic towards the

28、growth in both consumption and e-commerce business, and remained confident in high-quality logistics properties. On 9 July, Vanke Logistics Development Company Limited acquired Swire Cold Chain Logistics from Swire Pacific for RMB291 million, covering main cities in China (including Shanghai, Guangz

29、hou), and thus owned a large number of logistics facilities and warehouses. The acquisition symbolises Vanke Logisticss further expansion in cold chain business. On 18 August, 56PINGTAI, an internet platform focusing on the highway logistics industry in China, signed a comprehensive strategic cooper

30、ation contract with Vailog Group, one of the largest industrial property developers in Europe and the largest logistics facility supplier in Italy to set up the logistics property fund of RMB5 billion, which will be used for the development of new ecological road ports to enforce the development of

31、highway logistics in China. After the achievement of full privatisation at the beginning of 2018, GLP has continuously expanded its business in the Chinese market by setting up a logistics fund and signing the strategic cooperation contracts with other partners, and paid special attention on the dev

32、elopment of logistics technology. On 11 September, GLP announced its new fund jointly set up with GIC. With a total amount of US$2 billion, the fund will be used for the acquisition of logistics properties with steady profits in China. GLP China will serve as the asset manager of the fund. 18% 8% 12

33、% 2% 7% 40% 13% Songjiang Minhang Jinshan Qingpu Fengxian Pudong Jiading Source: Shanghai planning and land resource Bureau, knight Frank research In terms of transacted land size, most single land plots were under 5 hectares, accounting for 82% of the total transactions in Q3. Single land plots of

34、between 1-5 hectares contributed the most, amounting to 65% of the total. Three land plots of over 8 hectares for each were traded, two of which were located in Pudong New Area while the remaining one was located in Songjiang District, amounting to 13% of the total. 7 研究报告上海工业市场季度报告 2018年第三季度 6 2018

35、年9月份，中国制造业采购经理指数 （pMI） 为50.8%， 比上月回落0.5个百分 点，制造业总体延续扩张态势，增长速度 有所放缓。 第三季度，本市规模以上工业企业完成工 业总产值人民币8,753.41亿元，比去年同 期下降1.7%。其中，9月份规模以上企业 完成工业总产值人民币3,033.96亿元，比 去年同月下降3.4%。 六个重点工业行业共完成工业总产值人民币 17,494.48亿元，比去年同期增长1.8%， 呈现四升两降的态势。其中，电子信息产 品制造业和精品钢材制造业分别同比下降 1%和7%；汽车制造业、石油化工及精细 化工制造业、成套设备制造业和生物医药 制造业则分别同比增长4.

36、7%、0.8%、 3.2%及9.5%。 第三季度，上海签订外商直接投资合同项 目1,527个，同比增长82%。签订外商直接 投资合同金额同比增长24.8%至121.19亿 美金；实际到位金额43.83亿美金，同比下 降5.2%。 考虑到土地资源的稀缺性，我们预计未来 一年的物流仓储租金将保持平稳上升，环 比增幅在3%-4%左右；工业厂房的租金将 继续上扬，环比增幅在2%-3%左右。由于 第四季度有数个物流仓库竣工交付，物流 仓储的空置率将微升至9%。 进入传统淡季， 物流地产 市场观望气氛明显 第三季度是工业地产市场的传统淡季， 各项宏观指数 增幅减缓， 成交偏淡， 物流地产和工业厂房的租金水

37、平 基本保持稳定， 未见明显上涨。 Factory Project in Jiangsu Changzhou Economic Zone for Lease proJeCt pArtICulArS tABle 1 Project summary Property NameJiangsu Qishuyan railway transportation Industrial park Locationthe intersection of longjin road and dongcheng road, on lucheng Street Site Areaapprox. 162,355 sqm

38、Gross Floor Area (GFA) #1 Building: 12,130.91 sqm #2 Building: 14,905.55 sqm #3-#6 Building: 11,622.67 sqm for each #7 Building: 13,775.48 sqm #8 Building: 46,275.38 sqm #9 Building: 17,266.2 sqm #10-#11 Building: 5,876.44 sqm for each Basementapprox. 800 car parking lots lifestyle facilities, such

39、as caf and F&B services, are under planning No of Storeys#1-#6/#10-#11 Building: Four storeys #7 Building: Five storeys #8 Building: eleven storeys #9 Building: three storeys Property Rightsthe basement and the above-ground buildings belong to the Adminis- trative Committee of Jiangsu Changzhou econ

40、omic Zone. The project is located to the north of Jiangsu Changzhou Economic Zone, at the intersection of Longjin Road and Dongcheng Road, on Lucheng Street. It is situated at the border of Tianning and Wujin Districts. Thanks to the excellent location of Jiangsu Changzhou Economic Zone, the transpo

41、rtation is convenient. The project is located about 10 km from the city centre and close to Hurong Expressway/ (G42) Hengshanqiao Exit and Changhe Expressway/(S38) Qishuyan Exit. The project is located about 10 minutes driving distance from Qishuyan Railway Station, 20 minutes driving distance from

42、Changzhou Railway Station and next to Changzhou Liu Guojun Vocational Technology College. Jiangsu Changzhou Economic Zone has superior development potential and location advantages. The subject project is surrounded by well-known enterprises including Nidec Corporation, Bombardier Inc., CRRC Qishuya

43、n Locomotive Company Limited, NKT Cables. The project is recommended for manufacturing, research and development (R&D) uses. 98 研究报告上海工业市场季度报告 2018年第三季度 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2

44、/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 环比涨幅 % 人民币/平方米/天 物流仓储租金（左轴）环比涨幅（右轴） 根据中国物流与采购联合会物流运行数据 显示，前三季度，全社会物流总额为人 民币204.1万亿元，同比增长6.7%，增速 比上半年和去年同期相比回落0.2个百分 点。中国物流

45、业景气指数第三季度平均为 51.6%，较今年上半年均值回落2.3个百 分点。 钢铁、煤炭等大宗商品物流需求增速难有 明显改善，而与民生相关的电商物流、快 递速运、冷链、医药、汽车等物流需求和 一体化物流、供应链管理等高端物流业态 有望保持快速增长。 第三季度通常是物流交易的淡季，此外， 政府对物流项目审批更加严格，开发商及 投资者只能通过获取二手工业用地，才能 进行开发物流项目，并且物流项目在注册 及税收方面的要求更趋严格，致使一部分 潜在租户不得不保持观望态度或选择上海 以外的区域进行仓库租赁。因此，第三季 度上海物流仓储地产的租金保持在每天每 平方米人民币1.55元，与上季度持平，物 流仓

46、库的空置率也保持不变在8%的水平。 三季度一般是工业厂房市场的淡季，因此本 季度上海工业单层厂房平均租金环比保持不 变，仍为每天每平方米人民币1.22元。 第三季度，从区域来看，工业厂房租金最 高的区域为闵行和浦东，日租金分别达到 每天每平方米人民币1.49元和1.35元。位 列第三第四的分别是青浦和奉贤，其厂 房租金分别为每天每平方米人民币1.28和 1.26元。金山区的厂房租金相对较低，约 为每天每平方米人民币1.0元。 2018年第三季度，在金山、青浦等区都有 新增厂房面积入市。上海（金山）国际中 小企业产业园（一期）项目有约100,000平 方米的新建厂房面积竣工交付，该项目总 投资人

47、民币4.1亿元，项目包含建筑单体共 13栋，其中单层标准厂房2栋，2层标准厂 房3栋，3层标准厂房4栋，还有一栋4层综 合楼，每栋厂房面积6,500平方米至19,000 平方米不等，年底前可以入驻。青浦工业 区内有约30,000平方米的多层厂房项目竣 工交付，这一项目共有6栋单体建筑，其中 一栋为5层主办公楼，其余5栋为层高4.2米 的车间。 第三季度，不断涌入的国内外生产制造企 业推动了对于工业厂房的需求。7月10日， 特斯拉公司与上海临港管委会、临港集团 资料来源：莱坊研究部 物流地产厂房 图一 物流仓储物业平均租金及环比涨幅，2018年第三季度 供应方面，数个物流设施预计将在2018年

48、年底前竣工交付。例如，物流地产开发商 易商红木在浦东机场旁边将有约100,000 平方米的物流设施投入市场。并且，易尚 共同签署了纯电动车项目投资协议。10月 17日，特斯拉中国发布公告称，特斯拉公 司以人民币9.73亿元收购上海临港一工业 用地，总出让面积为864,885平方米。特斯 拉上海超级工厂正式落户上海临港，该项 目规划年生产50万辆纯电动整车，是上海 有史以来最大的外资制造业项目，特斯拉 也正式成为中国放宽汽车行业外资股比限 制后第一家独资建厂的外资企业。 10月19日， 上汽大众新能源工厂在上海安亭 正式开工， 总投资达人民币170亿元， 占地面 积405,600平方米。 计划于

49、2020年建成投产， 规划年产能30万辆， 这是大众汽车首个专为 MeB纯电动车型生产而新建设的汽车工厂 。 这些整车厂房的进入也会带动相关汽车零部 件进入市场，同时催生这些相关汽车产业对 于工业厂房的需求。 红木上海青浦物流园将于第四季度竣工交 付，该物流园区占地63,365平方米，建筑 面积为92,803平方米。 资料来源：莱坊研究部 图二 单层厂房平均租金及环比涨幅，2018年第三季度 -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 环比涨幅 % 人民币/平方米/天 厂房租金（左轴）环比涨幅（右轴） 1110 研究报告上海工业市场季度报