1、DECEMBER 2018 MCI (P) 073/08/2018 WEALTH REPORT ASIA 2018 Front cover: Aerial view of Bangkoks tallest building - MahaNakhon Source: iStock The Julius Baer Lifestyle Index saw its best yearly price growth on record. EDITORIAL The global economic picture remains bright, even as leading indicators hin

2、t at a slower pace ahead. In this environment, the Julius Baer Lifestyle Index saw its best yearly price growth on record from a year earlier, an indication of the robust purchasing power of high net worth individuals in Asia. Yet as the Chinese economy slows, there is growing concern that global lu

3、xury consumption will fall along with it. We believe that Chinese consumers will continue to expand their spending in luxury goods but led by a different demographic from the past - namely, the middle class, the millennial and the female consumer. In view of the rising tide of female wealth, this ye

4、ars thematic piece focuses on Womenomics in Asia. The purchasing power of women in Asia is increasingly gaining recognition, with more women in senior management positions and becoming more financially savvy. This year, we launched a new index the His though the famed stars have helped place restaur

5、ants under the international spotlight. And then, of course, theres the price effect on diners. Understandably, restaurants will milk Michelin stars for their worth. In 2018, Singapore displaced Hong Kong as the most expensive city in Asia to enjoy a fine dining meal (USD 283). The reason behind the

6、 exorbitant price tag? Besides factoring in the cost of quality ingredients airfreighted around the world, rental cost is a major issue. Higher fixed costs such as labour pricing and foreign labour restrictions present challenges as well. On the other end, Manila remained the most price competitive

7、as per the previous year. Overall, fine dining prices have risen by 4.7% y/y in USD terms, with the most marked change in Bangkok (+48.7%). The reason behind the steep price appreciation in Bangkok was due to the change in the basket of restaurants. Following the launch of the inaugural Michelin foo

8、d guide in Bangkok in December 2017, Sra Bua was replaced by two-Michelin starred restaurants, Le Normandie and Mezzaluna, in the basket of restaurants this year, aligning Thailand with the selection criteria. Pertaining to fine dining trends in the region over the year, the rising popularity of che

9、fs tables is noteworthy. When it comes to offering memorable moments, the chefs table is the front row seat to culinary theatrics. Similar to the Japanese omakase concept, it involves access to the chefs, who add value to the luxury dining experience. Part of enhancing the fine dining experience is

10、to impress on patrons the stories behind the cuisines, which include details of the preparation process and source of the ingredients. This enhances the exquisiteness of the gastronomic encounter. Evidently, rising affluence in the region means that fine dining will remain a key aspect of Asian HNWI

11、s consumption habits. Classic fine dining restaurants by stalwarts such as Jol Robuchon should continue to see healthy demand as indulgence in fine cuisine is seen as part of aspirational living. Fine dining is a multi-sensory experience that will continue to attract patrons who appreciate it. WEALT

12、H REPORT ASIA 2018 30 DEGUSTATION DINNER 2018 cost (USD) 2018 vs 2017 cost change 2018 cost (Local currency) 2018 vs 2017 cost change Singapore2830.07%386-1.91% Shanghai2810.18%1,9180.00% Hong Kong266-7.31%2,088-6.64% Taipei2585.83%7,8957.29% Seoul2351.88%262,5000.96% Bangkok20748.66%6,88644.45% Ave

13、rage2014.72%5.51% Tokyo2000.09%22,3300.00% Kuala Lumpur14316.27%58110.04% Mumbai1205.87%8,24012.72% Jakarta119-7.64%1,714,0000.00% Manila100-11.97%5,327-6.29% Source: Julius Baer CHART 23: RANKING BY PRICE (DESCENDING) WEALTH REPORT ASIA 2018 31 WEALTH REPORT ASIA 2018 32 Hong Kong Singapore Shangha

14、i MumbaiTaipeiJakartaManilaSeoul Kuala Lumpur BangkokTokyo BUSINESS CLASS FLIGHT 02 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY 82 WEDDING BANQUET 2536910847111 HOTEL SUITE 2597438611101 LASIK 4321098711516 HOSPITAL ROOM 34 GOLF CLUB MEMBERSHIP 2478511169103 LAWYER 58 WATCH 8619

15、457210311 LADIES HANDBAG 65 WINE 28 JEWELLERY 64 MENS SUIT 8571161024319 BOTOX 73 PIANO 6875124911310 CAR 40 CIGAR 7421056389111 LADIES SHOES 84 SKIN CREAM 28 DEGUSTATION DINNER 37 CHART 24: CITY RANK BY INDIVIDU

16、AL ITEM IN USD TERMS Source: Julius Baer 2018 Rank 2017 Rank Movement Shanghai12#1 Singapore23#1 Hong Kong31$2 Tokyo45#1 Taipei54$1 Seoul66- Bangkok77- Mumbai88- Manila99- Jakarta1010- Kuala Lumpur1111- WEALTH REPORT ASIA 2018 33 CHART 25: CHANGE IN RANKING 2017/2018 MOST EXPENSIVE CITY: SHANGHAI On

17、 a price-weighted basis, Shanghai has overtaken Hong Kong for pole position this year. It is now the most expensive city to buy six of our 22 items (hospital room, watch, handbag, wine, jewellery and skin cream). In addition, it has grown more pricey on a relative basis to buy property (5th to 4th m

18、ost expensive), legal fees (10th to 2nd), watches (2nd to 1st), handbags (4th to 1st) and to have a fine dining experience (3rd to 2nd). LEAST EXPENSIVE CITY: KUALA LUMPUR Kuala Lumpur retains its claim as the least expensive city in Asia in price-weighted terms. It is the most competitive city to b

19、uy six of the 22 items in our index (property, hotel suite, wine, jewellery, piano and cigar). Price deflation of items onshore such as legal fees (down 4 spots) and jewellery (down 3 spots) offset a recovery in the value of the ringgit against the USD. UPGRADES AND DOWNGRADES Hong Kong, Shanghai an

20、d Singapore continue to jockey for top three positions in Asia. Singapore rises from 3rd to 2nd position helped both by a stronger Singapore dollar, and across the board improvement in item price rankings. Elsewhere city rankings were largely unchanged apart from Tokyo (+1 to 4th) and Taipei (-1 to

21、5th) also affected by currency movements. Source: Julius Baer (USD) (USD) 0 60 40 20 80 100 % min. 3,484 max. 5,909 min. 3,680 max. 54,307 min. 25,124 max. 136,187 min. 342 max. 1,587 min. 1,553 max. 3,590 min. 144 max. 1,024 min. 3,037 max. 847,442 min. 390 max. 1,070 min. 29,784 max. 42,656 min. 3

22、,206 max. 4,024 BUSINESS CLASS FLIGHT RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY WEDDING BANQUET HOTEL SUITE LASIK HOSPITAL ROOM GOLF CLUB MEMBERSHIP LAWYERWATCH LADIES HANDBAG Hong Kong Average Source: Julius Baer 33% 100% 37% 75% 23% 60% 52% 85% 34% 40% 27% 63% 60% 58% 21% 40% 51% 100% 37% 100% WEALTH REPORT ASIA 2018

23、34 CHART 26: JULIUS BAER LIFESTYLE INDEX - HONG KONG CITY COMPARISONS - HONG KONG Our basket of goods and services rose by 2.2% in Hong Kong, with prices for most items stable year-on-year (y/y). Hotel suites (+10.6%), jewellery (+9.5%), and ladies handbags (+6.6%) were exceptions, experiencing stro

24、ng inflation. This was slightly lower than the average price gain of +2.9% across the cities. As expected, Hong Kong remains the most expensive city to purchase a residential property and to take a business class flight. Despite its reputation as one of the most expensive cities in Asia, items such

25、as skin cream (11th), jewellery (10th), wine (10th), ladies shoes (8th), watch (8th) and mens suits (8th) are relatively inexpensive. In a bid to address skyrocketing housing prices, Hong Kong looks set to introduce a 5% tax on properties left vacant for more than six months after the occupancy perm

26、it grant. However, its min. 41,818 max. 48,143 min. 2,769 max. 4,309 min. 105 max. 331 min. 209,092 max. 275,918 min. 138,971 max. 436,105 min. 897 max. 2,030 min. 746 max. 1,064 min. 1,261 max. 1,493 min. 1,476min. 100 max. 4,142max. 283 MENS SUIT CIGARWINEPIANO SKIN CREAM BOTOX LADIES SHOES JEWELL

27、ERYCAR DEGUSTATION DINNER 30% 8% 53% 30% 66% 54% 67% 60% 32% 27% 63% 60% 35% 10% 39% 0% 90% 55% 100% 52% WEALTH REPORT ASIA 2018 35 effectiveness remains to be seen and the tax is not expected to affect Hong Kongs property prices significantly. The recent HIBOR hike could also affect property market

28、 sentiment negatively. On the economic front, we expect continued strong growth in 2018, estimated at 3.5%. This is expected to taper to 2.5% in 2019. Export growth is projected to continue its strong growth despite headwinds from the US-China trade dispute. Consumer prices in Hong Kong are expected

29、 to increase by 2.5% in 2018, falling to 2.0% in 2019. The impact of rising global energy costs is dampened by the appreciation of the HKD against the CNY, which results in lower cost of imports from the mainland. We are neutral on the HKD (which is pegged to the USD) in both the short and long term

30、. The US Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates to 2.5% in 2018, and to 3.5% by the end of 2019. This is positive for the HKD. However, we believe the USD remains fundamentally overvalued. (USD) (USD) 0 60 40 20 80 100 % min. 3,484 max. 5,909 min. 3,680 max. 54,307 min. 25,124 max. 136,187 min. 34

31、2 max. 1,587 min. 1,553 max. 3,590 min. 144 max. 1,024 min. 3,037 max. 847,442 min. 390 max. 1,070 min. 29,784 max. 42,656 min. 3,206 max. 4,024 BUSINESS CLASS FLIGHT RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY WEDDING BANQUET HOTEL SUITE LASIK HOSPITAL ROOM GOLF CLUB MEMBERSHIP LAWYERWATCH LADIES HANDBAG CHART 27: JULIUS

32、 BAER LIFESTYLE INDEX - SINGAPORE CITY COMPARISONS - SINGAPORE Our basket of goods and services in Singapore rose by 5.4% y/y in USD terms, led by strong price increases in golf club membership (+26.1%) and hotel suite (+11.8%). As our country club no longer issues new memberships, prices were drive

33、n by the auction market, resulting in its rise. Overall, Singapores performance was a better result than the indexs +2.9%. On a price-weighted basis, Singapore is now the second most expensive city in Asia. Unsurprisingly, it is the most expensive city to purchase a car, owing to heavy levies and du

34、ties on automobile purchases. It is also the third most expensive city to secure a luxury property. Individuals looking to enjoy an evening out at a two Michelin-starred restaurant would also be forking out the highest prices in the region. One would be hard-pressed to find a bargain Singapore Avera

35、ge Source: Julius Baer 33% 45% 37% 39% 16% 23% 52% 92% 34% 39% 27% 29% 66% 58% 36% 40% 51% 97% 37% 65% WEALTH REPORT ASIA 2018 36 min. 41,818 max. 48,143 min. 2,769 max. 4,309 min. 105 max. 331 min. 209,092 max. 275,918 min. 138,971 max. 436,105 min. 897 max. 2,030 min. 746 max. 1,064 min. 1,261 max

36、. 1,493 min. 1,476min. 100 max. 4,142max. 283 MENS SUIT CIGARWINEPIANO SKIN CREAM BOTOX LADIES SHOES JEWELLERYCAR DEGUSTATION DINNER in Singapore, albeit pianos (4th cheapest regionally) and jewellery (5th cheapest regionally) are relatively price competitive compared to the rest of the region. Name

37、d the most liveable city in Asia and ranked second pertaining to ease of doing business, Singapore remains an appealing choice for both talents and investments. Yet, as an open economy, mounting pressure from the trade dispute between two of Singapores most important trading partners China and the U

38、S could affect Singapores exports. Singapores economy is projected to grow at a pace of 3.0% in 2018 and slow to 2.5% in 2019. Consumer prices will be boosted by increasing energy prices, from a projected 1.0% in 2018 to 1.5% in 2019. We have a neutral view on the Singapore dollar shorter term but a

39、re bullish longer term. In the short run, a strengthening USD, worsening trade spat and Chinas economic slowdown will be a drag on the SGD. However, in the longer term, we believe strong fundamentals and greater economic productivity will support the SGD. 30% 22% 53% 41% 80% 66% 60% 44% 100% 27% 83%

40、 63% 40% 35% 53% 39% 100% 55% 59% 52% WEALTH REPORT ASIA 2018 37 (USD) (USD) 0 60 40 20 80 100 % min. 3,484 max. 5,909 min. 3,680 max. 54,307 min. 25,124 max. 136,187 min. 342 max. 1,587 min. 1,553 max. 3,590 min. 144 max. 1,024 min. 3,037 max. 847,442 min. 390 max. 1,070 min. 29,784 max. 42,656 min

41、. 3,206 max. 4,024 BUSINESS CLASS FLIGHT RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY WEDDING BANQUET HOTEL SUITE LASIK HOSPITAL ROOM GOLF CLUB MEMBERSHIP LAWYERWATCH LADIES HANDBAG CHART 28: JULIUS BAER LIFESTYLE INDEX - SHANGHAI CITY COMPARISONS - SHANGHAI Our basket of goods and services in Shanghai rose by 4.8% in USD

42、terms (+4.1% in local currency terms), led by strong growth in residential property (+19.0% in USD terms), wine (+23.3%), and luxury watch prices (+13.2%). This exceeds the 2.9% gain in the overall index. On the flipside, prices of business class flights and botox experienced steep declines brought

43、about by heightened competition, falling by 20.2% and 21.6% respectively in USD terms. Second only to Beijing in GDP per capita in China, Shanghai moved up a notch to overtake Hong Kong as the most expensive Asian city. It is the most expensive city for six of our index items - hospital accommodatio

44、n, watches, ladies handbag, wine, jewellery and skin cream. Tariff cuts on imported goods in July did not translate into lower prices for our index items. Shanghai Average Source: Julius Baer 33% 43% 37% 68% 2% 23% 52% 99% 34% 100% 6% 27% 100% 58% 40% 100% 51% 100% 37% 40% WEALTH REPORT ASIA 2018 38

45、 min. 41,818 max. 48,143 min. 2,769 max. 4,309 min. 105 max. 331 min. 209,092 max. 275,918 min. 138,971 max. 436,105 min. 897 max. 2,030 min. 746 max. 1,064 min. 1,261 max. 1,493 min. 1,476min. 100 max. 4,142max. 283 MENS SUIT CIGARWINEPIANO SKIN CREAM BOTOX LADIES SHOES JEWELLERYCAR DEGUSTATION DIN

46、NER Ladies shoes and hotel suites are some of the cheapest in the region, ranked 11th and 9th respectively. Tightening measures in 2016 have caused a slowdown in Chinas economic engine. Despite monetary and fiscal easing measures, trade tensions continue to weigh on consumer and investor sentiment.

47、With Chinas largest trading partner the US - looking to impose ever more onerous tariffs on Chinese imports, Chinas manufacturing growth is likely to slow. We forecast that growth will slow to 6.6% in 2018, and further decline to 6.2% in 2019. Higher energy costs will lift transport prices, while Ch

48、inese tariffs on US agricultural imports will push up food prices. As growth softens, we expect moderate inflation at an average of 2.0% for 2018, which will creep up to 2.6% in 2019. Over a three-month and 12-month horizon, we are bearish on the CNY as the economy slows, US trade tensions remain an

49、d the authorities engineer a gradual depreciation to protect foreign currency reserves. 100% 30% 100% 53% 67% 66% 62% 60% 44% 27% 96% 63% 35% 0% 100% 39% 98% 55% 70% 52% WEALTH REPORT ASIA 2018 39 (USD) (USD) 0 60 40 20 80 100 % min. 3,484 max. 5,909 min. 3,680 max. 54,307 min. 25,124 max. 136,187 min. 342 max. 1,587 min. 1,553 max. 3,590 min. 144 max. 1,024 min. 3,037 max. 847,442 min. 390 max. 1,070 min. 29,784 max. 42,656 min. 3,206 max. 4,024 BUSINESS CLASS FLIGHT RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY WEDDING BANQUET HOTEL SUITE LASIK HOSPITAL ROOM GOLF CLUB MEMB