1、A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit Digital disruption: risks and opportunities in the shift to online The world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist

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3、f not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep

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11、range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as industry-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends. DIGITAL DISRUPTION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SHIFT TO ONLINE The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20201 The pandemic has accelerated the pace of di

12、gitalisation. The Economist Intelligence Unit looks at how companies and countries can thrive amid the resulting market disruption. From the start of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, it was clear that digital businesses would be among the few winners. And so it has proved. Lockdowns have encoura

13、ged a remarkable acceleration in digitalisation across many sectors, from online retail and digital finance to online entertainment and telehealth. The effect is already causing market disruption that will only be amplified as the global economy recovers. Areas of opportunity will open up for compan

14、ies that move quickly to develop new digital products and services, but there are also some serious risks that could undermine companies ability to grasp those opportunities. As well as spotlighting the key opportunities and risks, this paper outlines 16 factors - from the regulatory environment to

15、infrastructure - that will determine the pace of digitalisation in different economies over the next five years. Emerging areas of opportunity The acceleration in digitalisation over the past year has been caused by lockdowns, which have forced both consumers and business online. Over the next two t

16、o three years, the rollout of vaccines protecting from Covid-19 will (if all goes well) make stay-at-home policies less necessary as the threat from the coronavirus fades. However, the digital economy will carry on expanding. Some consumer habits are likely to have changed permanently, while compani

17、es have spotted opportunities amid the disruption. Online retail. The Economist Intelligence Unit, using data from Edge by Ascential, estimates that online retail sales in the 60 biggest economies surged by over 30% in 2020. In 2021 we expect further growth of 18% in online sales, and by 2025 they a

18、re likely to account for nearly 20% of total retail sales, up from 10% in 2019. Even sectors that have traditionally been less reliant on digital sales, such as automotive, will change. We expect online sales to account for nearly one-quarter of new- car sales by 2025, from less than 5% before the p

19、andemic. Digital finance. Digital payments will soar in tandem with the rise in online retailing, but will also penetrate further into real-world retailing as customers and sellers seek to avoid contact with cash and cards. Regions with low levels of banking or card penetration, but high smartphone

20、penetration, will make a particularly rapid switch to digital payments systems, as companies such as WhatsApp Pay (US) and Ant Group (China) roll out new services. Digital disruption: risks and opportunities in the shift to online Online retail to double its size (share of online sales in total glob

21、al retail sales; %) Sources: The Economist Intelligence Unit; Edge by Ascential. 204 10 12 14 16 18 20 DIGITAL DISRUPTION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SHIFT TO ONLINE The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20202 These consumer trends will bring corresponding switches behind the scenes

22、. Financial firms will shift more customers to online and mobile platforms, adopt remote claims management, promote passive investment strategies and use roboadvisors. To speed up monetary transactions, we are likely to see new interbank payment services, along the lines of Indias Unified Payments I

23、nterface and Brazils PIX. China and other countries will accelerate their experiments with central bank digital currencies, encouraged by the introduction of Facebooks scaled-back digital currency, now called Diem. Remote working. Lockdowns have seen companies such as Zoom, Okta and Slack (US) and T

24、ikTok (China; also known as Douyin) become household names, and in the process change the way that teams operate. If remote-working remains commonplace, the implications could be far- reaching, affecting everything from customer management to recruitment. In manufacturing, companies are automating p

25、roduction, or stepping up digitalisation of supply- chain management and product design. Pininfarina, an Italian car design company, now deploys many of its new car designs virtually, allowing it to expand its customer base. Logistics will become increasingly digitalised: very sophisticated tracking

26、 systems will be needed for the huge effort of rolling out Covid vaccines. Telehealth. In the US, Medicare, a government health fund, went from reimbursing 11,000 virtual visits a week pre-pandemic to 1.3m visits a week during the March-May lockdowns. Several countries have adopted new regulation an

27、d reimbursement rules that will support future growth in telehealth. Healthcare providers and patients are also becoming more adept at using remote technology, and identifying gaps in its ability to meet clinical goals. Online entertainment and gaming. Microsofts online and Xbox gaming revenue rose

28、by 64% year on year between April and June 2020, while Sony saw 50% growth in game and network services over the same period. However, gaming and entertainment are shifting away from devices towards the cloud, opening up opportunities. Education. Schools and universities have been forced to adopt re

29、mote-learning policies that could ultimately disrupt their business model, giving them an opportunity to reach a broader customer base but probably at lower fees. Fixed costs will remain high, unless the campus model also changes. This shift will open up the sector to digital-only providers, with on

30、ly the most prestigious institutions likely to retain market share. Data analytics. Underpinning the new digital economy will be the crucial role of data, as companies use it to yield new customer insights, enhance productivity, or deliver efficiency gains. This prospect has driven consolidation in

31、the data market this year, including S The Economist Intelligence Unit. DIGITAL DISRUPTION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SHIFT TO ONLINE The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20203 the London Stock Exchanges purchase of Refinitiv, and Intercontinental Exchanges deal to buy Ellie Mae. The data ma

32、rket will also be disrupted by new regulations on data localisation being introduced by countries such as China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Russia and Brazil. This trend will drive growth in edge computing, which allows data to be stored and analysed locally. Key risks As companies move to grasp the

33、se opportunities, they will also need to navigate new risks. Telecoms infrastructure. The sudden surge in demand has, on occasion, overwhelmed servers during 2020, including (most recently) those used by Google and Amazon Web Services. If demand remains high, telecom companies will need to invest he

34、avily to shore up existing telecoms infrastructure, at a time when revenue has been dented by the pandemic. However, only a comprehensive fifth generation (5G) network can offer the bandwidth and data transmission speed to support a more digitised world. Big data, in particular, needs both extensive

35、 storage and smart analytics to maximise its potential. Although the pandemic has delayed many 5G auctions, about 47% of the 60 markets we cover expect to launch a 5G network by end-2020. Some of the remaining countries will try to make up for lost time by carrying out auctions in 2021. US-China tec

36、h wars. The rollout of 5G is being hampered by the sanctions imposed by the US against Huawei, a Chinese telecoms equipment manufacturer. This has forced many countries to abandon Huawei hardware to buy 5G equipment from (often more expensive) competitors such as Samsung (South Korea), Ericsson (Swe

37、den) and Nokia (Finland). However, poorer countries will need to explore cheaper ways of maintaining network speeds. Digital taxes. International e-commerce giants (such as Amazon of the US and Flipkart of India) face a renewed crackdown, as governments try to support domestic players or rescue bric

38、ks-and- mortar companies. India, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia have already launched digital service taxes. The EU is likely to roll out its own digital tax regulations by the end of 2020 if the OECD fails to Availability of digital government servicesAvailability of e-commerce Telecommunication

39、s infrastructure, such as broadband, mobile networks 0 10 20 30 40 50 AucklandHong KongSingaporeSydneyTokyo Business hub technology and innovation elements which perform very well during disruption (% of respondents saying the city is doing very well) Sources: OECD; The Economist Intelligence Unit.

40、34 22 32 28 26 38 34 40 46 30 34 30 22 2626 DIGITAL DISRUPTION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SHIFT TO ONLINE The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20204 arrive at a consensus under its Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project. Some governments, such as the UK, will consider a levy on all

41、online retailers to level the playing field. Regulatory risks. One dilemma governments will face is how to regulate technology companies that are expanding in areas such as fintech or healthcare, but refuse to be regulated like organisations from these industries. Competition regulations, data priva

42、cy, consumer trading standards and (perhaps) solvency regulations are all under review, as well as data localisation laws. Digital security. The acceleration in digitalisation has brought an inevitable acceleration in cyberattacks, forcing companies to invest more in cybersecurity. Phishing, scams a

43、nd malware attacks are getting more sophisticated and more targeted, as recent efforts to derail AstraZenecas vaccine programme show. Factors driving the pace of digitalisation Despite these risks, digitalisation is likely to be one of the prime drivers of the economic recovery. A recent EU report c

44、laims that, by 2030, digital technologies will contribute a cumulative 2.2trn (US$2.5trn) to the EU economy, a projection that will underpin the EUs pro-digital policies. The information and communication industries alone now account for 8% of the EUs GDP (see chart), while Accenture estimates the w

45、hole digital economy at around 22% of global GDP. Given the current economic crisis, this is a contribution that cannot be ignored. However, to develop a digital economy countries need to have a conducive business environment (see table). They also need to ensure that the impact on employment of the

46、 shift online is managed carefully. Digitalisation will drive job losses in sectors including manufacturing and retail over the next four years, but is also likely to generate new roles in areas such as programming and app development, as well as online deliveries. Displaced workers will need reskil

47、ling programmes if they, as well as businesses, are to thrive. Information is driving the economy (information and communication businesses; share of gross value added) Sources: OECD; The Economist Intelligence Unit. EUUKUSCanadaKoreaBrazilTurkeyRussiaAustralia 0 2 4 6 8 10 Q2-19Q2-20 DIGITAL DISRUP

48、TION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SHIFT TO ONLINE The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20205 Factors that will drive digital growth Market environmentGovernmentRegulation and policyWorkforce Stable, rapid and widespread internet provision. Clear and stable roadmap towards a digital economy. Co

49、nducive tax regimes.Provision of digital teaching in schools. High penetration of mobile phones and other connected devices. Clear understanding of how to mitigate adverse economic and social impacts to minimise backlash. Streamlined regulation for business start-ups. Digital degrees and adult education programmes. Engaged customer based, both household and company. Government support for cybersecurity, particularly for vulnerable and important sectors. Clarity over digital regulations, including data privacy and competition. Employers willing to invest in upskilling. Market gaps.Government