1、羳 2 2021 1. 4 2. 8 1. 9 2. 34 3. 45 4. 59 5. 68 3. 77 1 2 2013 , 罨 2016 齨 2017 缶 2017 2019 İ 2021 縴仯 2013 21 1960 2019 3 2013 2020 翪 2020 11 乲 羳 5 6 2013 2020 2020 6,846 GSP IT 16 + 1 2019 17+1 2017 2019 2020 2019 92.3% 7 GCC 尢 羳 羳 羳 9 2010 2013 輰 1 10 2000 21 漰 - - 2013 2020 4,436 6,846 6.3% 1,995

2、3,009 6.0% 2020 1,995 3,009 2,441 3,837 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 11 2013 2019 2,909 3,829 4.7% 2020 2019 6% 2020 2019 ASEANStatsDataPortal 2,909 3,829 2,679 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3、 2018 2019 2020Q3 1,104 1,216 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q3 ASEANStatsDataPortal 豸 48% 7% 4% 4% 鱦 3% 3% 3% 2% 26% 12 2020 ASEANSTATS 漰 鱦 豸 豸 豸 豸 2020 ASEANStatsDataPortal 13 2020 豸 55% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 23% ASEANStatsDataPortal GSP 1. 2013 2020 61.6

4、5 143.60 12.80% 2016 2020 70%1 94% 14 ASEANStatsDataPortal 61.65 143.60 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ASEANStatsDataPortal 41% 25% 22% 6% 3% 3% 15 2. e-Conomy SEA 2019 WeAreSocial 3. 4. e-Conomy SEA 2019 5. e-Conomy SEA 2019 2

5、019 + 廯 羳 2017 2020 8 25 2020 羳 7,400 14% 30% 2015 7%3 2019 廥 1,000 2015 3 2025 3,000 4 5 1998 豸 豸 , 豸 ,OPPO VIVO 溣 绪 豸 True 羳 2019 3.6 4 3 2 16 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2015 2019 2025E e-Conomy 2019 SEA Lazada Shopee Tokopedia Grab Go-Tek Lazada Shopee Lazada 20 Singpost 3.87 Tokopedia 11 E

6、mtek N/A AscendMoney N/A Hellopay Lazada N/A Grab Sea N/A GoJek 12 Ookbee 1,900 Sanook 1 Shopee N/A JD(Thailand) 2.5 Traveloka N/A Pomelo Fashion 1,900 Tiki.VN 4,400 17 廯 2019 以 + IT 4626.77 4631.54 4453.02 4610.16 4963.01 5252.19 5491.05 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 5000.00 5500.00 6000.00 2013

7、2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CEIC Data, 399.05 268.88 284.91 186.88 317.32 550.67 562.72 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 18 4.0 粢 豸 2019 - 8 70 6 6. 19 IT IT IT 豸 + 2020 2019 52.68 15 7 IT 2019 2020 2020 豸 900 1,450 8 IT IT豸 洢 140 9 IT 2019 800 15 S

8、AP Geomove Neo Invention Software Factory 90% IT 20 IT 30% Telkom Indonesia BizNet Infinys System Indonesia Google IBM 豸 50% 2019 480 4G罨 5G Lazada Garena Grab Go-Jek Ninja Van 4.3% GDP 2013 2019 816 1,054 GDP 3.2% 3.4% 豸 漰崫 25% 30% True Viettel 7. CEIC Data 8. ASEANStatsDataPortal CEIC Data 9. CEIC

9、 Data 20 ASEANStatsDataPortal 815.90 821.93 799.47 852.74 920.59 975.41 1053.92 600.00 650.00 700.00 750.00 800.00 850.00 900.00 950.00 1000.00 1050.00 1100.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 18.27 23.96 17.64 18.88 24.19 29.53 0.45 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 2013 2014 2015 201

10、6 2017 2018 2019 CEIC Data 21 GDP 廯 徭 滮 2025 滮 2016 2020 跽 2,900 9,000 5,000 1,380 55GW10 滮 滻 5G 2018 1.5 50% 2018 1,200 2019 67% 10. 滮 - 統 峥 估 22 2025 滮 2 1 2010 2018 10 緶 World Bank 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 估 1,280 2013 6.8% GDP 858.77 926.74 978.48 102

11、5.89 1140.32 1176.91 1280.43 700.00 800.00 900.00 1000.00 1100.00 1200.00 1300.00 1400.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CEIC Data 估 23 以 GDP GDP 廯 廯 綫 Lazada Lazada Express 80% 7 JayaEkspres Transindo 澭 漰 Kerry Express TA-Q-bin YAMATO KOSPA Koukubu&Co鵱 DHL FedEX TNT ASEANStatsDataPortal -10.00

12、0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 24 羳 2012 2016- 2020 -澭 滮 2025 羳 2014 2019 Kerry Express 25 4 1.04 9,800 1.98 2019 , 26.00% , 24.50% , 49.50% e-Conomy SEA 2019 綫 4G罨 5G 5G 豸 26 2019 The Future of Southeast Asias Digital Financial Services Industry 0% 10% 20% 30%

13、 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2019 6,000 43% 2025 1.1 48% 220 1,140 2019 2025 e-Conomy SEA 2019 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2019 2025E 27 + Lazada Shopee Grab Gojek 30 8 Grab Gojek 2016- 2019 40% IT - 28 RCEP 20 4 2020 11 15 10 11 5 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP RCEP 羭 澭 RC

14、EP 羭 RCEP 11. 顢 10 1. RCEP RCEP 15 RCEP 10 RCEP RCEP RCEP RCEP轫 RCEP RCEP RCEP 90% 10 15 RCEP嵥 5 嵥 RCEP 29 30 2. RCEP 2019 6,416 11 2020 羭 2020 10 6,846 14.7% RCEP RCEP İ 10 RCEP 5 RCEP - RCEP 10+1 RCEP RCEP 麭 RCEP轫 RCEP 31 RCEP 5 10+1 5 佨 RCEP 8% RCEP 86% 漰 RCEP 21 21 RCEP RCEP RCEP 潫 RCEP RCEP RCE

15、P RCEP 32 3. RCEP RCEP RCEP 15 40% RCEP RCEP 10% RCEP 20% 5% 10% RCEP 40% 20% Components (HS: 9032.20) 1 2 3 CN-ASEAN - AP RCEP 1 2 3 - CN-ASEAN 40% - RCEP 40% : 10% ASEAN-CN: 5% RCEP: 0% 1 20% 2 5% 3 25% HS: 8504.40 HS: 7415 1 1 23 3 3 HS: 8536 RCEP RCEP 15 9 6 3 RCEP 辭 RCEP RCEP RCEP RCEP 33 RCEP

16、嵥 7 嵥 8 嵥 6 嵥 15 10+1 100 22 37 RCEP 羳 RCEP 15 嵥 5 10+1 嵥 RCEP 34 2011 16 工 2012 16+1 2019 17+1 2 35 2017 2019 2020 2019 92.3% - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 工 16 2017-2020 : 工 / 36 16 2017-2020 2017-2020 16

17、10.89% 13.06% 2.68% 2017 2020 16 9 7 9 7 2019 17+1 - : -500.00% -400.00% -300.00% -200.00% -100.00% 0.00% 100.00% 200.00% (500,000) - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 37 16 2017-2020 : -21.30% -13.93% 8.81% 19.07% 16.04% 11.57% 工 -386.44% 3.58% 35.50% 16.55% 6.97%

18、1.65% -3.89% 9.80% 12.23% 49.96% 43.86% 33.01% 13.50% 10.55% -8.80% -0.62% 4.15% 24.08% -4.27% -2.86% 4.20% -7.93% -4.97% 2.62% 7.16% 6.13% 0.88% 30.07% 15.08% 8.28% 8.39% 10.71% 13.09% 24.12% 7.98% -25.99% 102.45% 26.22% 37.99% -5.48% -5.11% -4.76% 16 10.89% 2.68% 13.06% 38 1.21 3,800 2014 2020 202

19、5 2035 2040 2050 15 -74 71% 2050 78% 2020 2014飩 : - 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 : 20 44% 78% 21 33% 1.3 70-80% 80% B2C 39 : 38,000 10,000 20,000 4,000 7,

20、000 78% 76% 71% 75% 65% 50% - 70% 50% - 70% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 30% - 50% B2C 5,000-10,000 1,000-5,000 1,000-5,000 100-500 100-500 3,000 2,000 1,000 80% 84% 89% 50% -70% 50% - 70% 50% - 70% B2C 100-500 100-500 100-500 2019 羳 1,087.5 14.4 羳 羳 23.55% 2018 22.8% 0.75 粨 Allegro eMag Rozetka 2019 2019 22

21、 AliExpress 羳 2019 羳 1,000 3,000 40 羳 41 1. 1990 2008 10 BOT PPP, F+EPC 2010 賧 纣 193 纣 - 100% 2027 100% 76% 25 鹤 輫 漰 50% 幵 42 2. 滮 - 2016 - 16+1顱 - 2019 乹 2014 1 滮 http:/ 43 (d) 10-12 (Pardubice) 工 (Koice) 工 2020 1.24 50% 113.5 56% 98.4% 73 4 5 37 12 2020 5 10 羳 鼰羳 3. 2024 1 13 PayPal 2017 - - - 羳 波

22、 罻 12. 13. European online payment method 2020 44 2020 12 30 2021 45 2030 2030 2025 滮 MENA İ 2015 3 2016 1 2015 3 46 20% GCC 2020 55 31 8 / 6 2019 2018 3.4% 6.4% 2018 1,770 65% 飬 2019 顣 絥 顣 -3 -5.8 -1.1 -3.1 -2.6 -2.9 0.9 -6.4 -0.1 -2.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 3.1 -3.4 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 2019仯 / 47 MENA 2017-2

23、020 MENA 2017-2020 1,215 1,230 1,330 1,366 1,131 1,588 1,584 1,264 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2017 2018 2019 2020 MENA MENA - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2017-2020 2017-2020 20% 48 80% A B C 漰 MENA 2015-2020 Capital IQ, 25 37 39 40 34 26 1,517 4,932 1,569 1,414 3,086 636 - 1,000

24、 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 55% 漰 MENA 2015-2020 Capital IQ, 9 4 7 8 11 17 3,300 22 5,212 1,832 2,256 3,174 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 İ Maged EzzEldeen 2018 77 10 10 10

25、3,500 3 49 The Arab Investment & Export Credit Guarantee Corporation (Dhaman) 2020 2020 2019 FDI Investment Climate Report 2020 in the Arab Countries by The Arab Investment & Export Credit Guarantee Corporation (Dhaman) 2019 FDI 15% 14% 11% 8%6%5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 26% 50 GCC 粻 2020 2014 2015 2016 2017 20

26、18 2019 2020 11% 11% 15% 15% 19% 33% 31% 24% 30% 2020 2020 12% 10% 12% 11% 13% 23% 25% 23% 20% 15% 14% 17% 19% 16% 29% 27% 29% 28% 37% 37% 40% 41% 43% 54% 50% 54% 47% PwC: Convenience is key - insights from the Middle East consumer 51 5,000 14 iMile Tik Tok 800 2/3 Namshi Noon Ounass Souq Shein Joll

27、eychic 簢 Food Craftd 2022 300 35 70% 羳 50%羳 2020 12 14. : https:/ PwC: Convenience is key - insights from the Middle East consumer 12 20% 22% 20% 24% 18% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 25% 24% 25% 30% 22% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 52 黹 綩 彻 2020 鱬 羳 5G PwC: Convenience is key - insights from t

28、he Middle East consumer APP - 39% 40% 39% 42% 38% 26% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 60% 58% 61% 64% 59% 44% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 53 羳 淢 羳 2010 1,094 2019 2,721 10.6 2020 2021 跽 21 GCC 潻 2019 Etihad Rail 潻 114 134 4,830 TEU GCC 41 68% 2019 10 CSP 2018 12 10 54 跽治 2019 191 2020 300 4

29、7 GCC 2020 SIDEM 68.2 GCC 2022 2,600 簢 10 DEWA IV 700MW 250MW 21 5G 4G 5G 2025 5G 8,000 10 15 2020鱬 5G 2019 11 5G 2020 6 鳤 2020 15. 55 羳 GCC 2019 6 2018 11 Al Hilal Jibrel Al Hilal Sukuk 2C 3%-4% 85% 57% 44% 62%16 鱬 World Bank, and Global Ventures: Fintech in MENA, An Overview 16. 2019 29 36 (32%) 6

30、2% 123% 29% 41 (34%) 48% 111% 43% 6.8 (32%) 78% 65% 45% 10 (32%) 67% 99% 42% 4.1 (36%) 100% 176% 80% 1.5 (47%) 96% 158% 83% 2.7 (55%) 97% 146% 66% 9.5 (54%) 95% 209% 88% 4.7 (51%) 80% 149% 74% 33 (37%) 82% 121% 72% 96 (32%) 45% 107% 33% 2012 39 17 310 56 / / ICOs AGDM FSRA, DFSA, (CBUAE), (SCA) SAMA

31、 17. Global Ventures2020 漰 滮 57 Mohammed Yaghmour EPC 2018 5.5 20 25 27% 29%18 豸 豸 Charles Clifton free zone 18. Source: https:/ population-0#:text=Youthful%20MENA&text=It%20has%20the%20largest%20youth,according%20to%20the%20World%20Bank. Mohammed Yaghmour Maged EzzEldeen OECD 沢 澭 58 59 2010 2013 鷢

32、2020 55 43 2013 190 2019 480 17 2020 2020 2020 25% 40% 2063 (PIDA) 廯 1 1.3 羳 FDI 7.4% GDP 4 60 2013 2014 2,100 2,220 2015 -2018 2020 1,869 2020 1,869 10.5% 1,142 0.9% 724 24.1% 2015-2020 1,790 1,491 1,700 2,042 2,068 1,870 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 358 192 163

33、145 90 85 66 56 40 27 152 168 17 136 20 68 56 54 6 19 206 25 145 9 70 17 10 2 34 8 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 61 10 1,222 2020 65% 2020 鵼 簲 95% 2020-2021 90 羳 2030 佫 12 2.5 2019 24% 19 55 54 2019 13 2.49% 2019 25 60 7.8 20 19 2020 19.8 37.4 15.1 2019 15-34 2100 19. IMF 2019 15.2 16.3 16.6 16.7

34、 16.7 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.6 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 , 2020 62 , 羳 2020 4 46 羳 105 2020 羳 26.2% 28.7% 24.4% 羳 Jumia Takealot Kilimall Konga Bidorbuy Zambezii B2B Zambezii 2019 200 / 2020 2,000 / Zambezii MTN Zambia MTN 40% Jumia 10 2020 670 12 550 LTM Kilimall B2B B2C B 2021 46 34.8 2,0

35、00 30 2020 40.57 2024 59.73 2020-2024 10.1% 2020 12.58 3,457 119% Visa MasterCard 46% 2015 2020 56 2 Kaymu Ethiosouq , 63 2019 OPay PalmPay Interswitch Jumia Pay 360 54 35 VISA EFT PayPal Apple Pay Samsung Pay 2015 Mobil MTN TIGO Vodaphone 2018 Paypal 2012 2017 2018 3,200 1,300 6,000 15 30,000 8,000

36、 60,000 羳 绰 64 TMT GSMA 9,750 5,300 2025 1.4 52% 2025 55% 3G 2G 4G 4 17% 4G 5G 3,654 3,493 80% ICT 25% 27% ICT 4,000 45% 2G 3G 90% 4G 100 2,114 2020 2.6% 4,675 18% 65 軥 70% 2020 16 4,000 DHL DHL AfricaeShop APP 羳 Dube Trade Port 80% 90 10 Trukr İ DHL Addis Ababa洢 GE Techno Mobile 66 20 羳 廯 APSSET 22

37、 輯 58 Mambila 50% 蹫 CCECC 19.44 8 11 102 - 21,000 8,200 Saldanha 100 BAIC 4 98 1,267 3 30 Takoradi 160 弯 纽 12 Mojo 豸 70 1,545 22 200 Modjo-Hawassa 750İ - 12 20 12 Hawassa Mekelle Kombolcha Dire Dawa Adama Bole Lemi II Bahir Dar Jimma Kilinto 豸 2025 滮 5 2,390 - 2017 6 38 4,000 110 İ 2022 75 67 15 20

38、56 2014-2016 11 18 羳羳 羳 羳 68 2013 2020 豸 2013 9 , CNPC Yamal LNG 20% 9.9% 2018 1,740 2019 Novatek Sovcomflot Novatek 5 69 2017 5 49% - 15 5 9-10 - WE-WC 2008 2018 9 2,000 - 10 1.5 14 100糧 罨 EPC Visor Capital 40 2.5 2019 , 4,670 3.5 100 2020 3% 漰 2013-2020 890 1,078 2.8% 2020 2020 56 41 13.7% 2013-20

39、20 400 386 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 18 18 14 15 17 11 43 57 54 56 63 29 86 59 69 84 91 65 35 36 42 63 72 66 143 131 180 199 220 214 681 696 841 1071 1108 1078 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 70 2020 571.81 97.39 14.83 60.71 0.35 0.45 505.85 117.07 51.46 4.45 28.66 10.18 -65.96 19.68

40、36.62 -56.26 28.31 9.73 -100.00 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 羳 羳 20% 2020 66.49 4.5% 2021 8% 30% 63% 84% 2020 216.26 2019 10 MegaFon IT Mail.ru MAIL RDIF 罻 Mail.ru 罻 VKontakte OK Facebook 1 1 MegaFon 7,700 2019 4.22 2.9% 2020 1.5 10.5 9.4% 2022 45.9 13% 2020 AliExpress 1,300

41、 2,500 71 72 MIR PayXpert MIR MIR Ingenico 2019 2020 10 2020 POS 91.59 30% VEON Kaspi.kz CIS Kaspi.kz 65% 45% Kaspi CIS Visa Mastercard VEON 滮 2020 棬 73 TMT 80% 66% 50% 2021 3G/4G 95.8% 5G Vimpelcom 4.5G 5G IoT 2020 5G 2015 - 2019 ( ) 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 2G 3G Fitch Solution 4

42、G 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 74 17 120 T3G/4G 57.3 140% Beeline Kazakhstan Beeline Kazakhstan 5G 2021 Fitch Solution 4G LTE 2020 2,500 630 2019 9 1 仯 2G 2018 2025 2024 5G 2% 5G 12% 2015 -2019 ( ) 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 2G 3G Fitch Solution 4G 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 75 , 2020

43、 2020 4 FS Italiane RZD 谭 辭 2020 齨 2020 10 2011 2020 1.24 113.5 21 92 乫 76 羳 128 8.7 10.2 6.3 960 2024 - 2019 3.5 2019 2024 170 8,445 2017 , 40 賤 2,192 117 50% 66% 84% 18% 11% 12% 4% İ 1.6 9.7 1.6輰 2020 2.1% - - 20 78 2020 羭 2021 2020 GDP 100 2.3% 2020 9.37 1% 177.9 18.3% 2020 23 25%澭 (RCEP) 7 35 2020