1、豸/ 1 / 18 002685.SZ 20200724 2020/7/23 () 6.52 () 7.60/4.47 () 65.70 () 51.76 () 10.08 () 7.94 3(%) 104.48 5G 豸 S0790520020001 衰 15GCNC2 豸3 2020/2021/2022 EPS 0.42/0.54/0.71 PE 16/12/9衰 5G 5G15G 豸5G 轫壬 2 5G CNC 豸 20202025 20352050 豸 豸 5G硣 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E () 9,948 13,687 14,510 16,698 1

2、9,253 YOY(%) 98.9 37.6 6.0 15.1 15.3 () 308 357 422 543 711 YOY(%) 133.3 16.0 18.1 28.8 31.0 (%) 6.8 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.8 (%) 3.1 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 ROE(%) 6.8 7.2 9.3 10.0 11.4 EPS(/) 0.31 0.35 0.42 0.54 0.71 P/E() 21.3 18.4 15.6 12.1 9.2 P/B() 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2019-07 2019-11 2020-

3、03 300 2 / 18 1 CNC豸 . 3 1.1 顱顱 . 3 1.2 . 5 2 . 7 3 豸 . 9 3.1 . 9 3.2 豸豸 . 9 3.3 豸 . 10 4 5G/ . 11 4.1 5G . 12 4.1.1 5G轫壬 . 12 4.1.2 5G豸 . 14 4.2 . 15 5 . 15 6 . 15 . 16 1 豸 . 3 2 4 . 3 3 豸 . 4 4 . 5 5 2015-2019CAGR72.8% . 6 6 2015-2019CAGR100.7% . 6 7 . 6 8 CNC . 6 9 2015-2019/CAGR88% . 8 10 . 8 11

4、 +AGV+ARMG . 10 12 . 12 13 2020-20255G . 13 14 2020-20255G . 13 15 CNC . 14 1 . 5 2 5G豸4G3 . 13 3 AAU5G . 13 4 . 15 nMsNoOrOqPmOzRsNsOqPsR9PbPaQoMmMpNqQfQoOpQkPnPpQ6MmMxONZsRtNxNqMrP 3 / 18 1 CNC豸 1.1 顱顱 豸19892004 20102012 塱 豸 1豸 20194 24 桢 1989 1991 201 2 2013 201 5 2016 2017 2018 100% 35%100% 1 7

5、.68 %2 1 .67 % 1 0 .62 % 4 .17 % 3 .4 4 % 35% 4 / 18 鹹豸 顱 顱 豸 豸 綥 PSADP World 3豸 5G CNC豸 5G 5 / 18 4 202061 12.482.54 豸6.20 1 1 豸 26,743.68 25,351.59 2 71,738.93 62,020.00 3 37,444.96 37,444.96 135,927.57 124,816.55 桢 1.2 2015-2019CAGR72.8% CAGR100.7% 2015-20199.6120.4CAGR88.1% CNC20172017-2019 3.81

6、3.0CAGR84.6%豸 3-620193.420181.7% 6 / 18 52015-2019CAGR72.8% 62015-2019CAGR100.7% Wind Wind CNC 2019CNC 豸78.06%9.48%5.45%4.49% 2.51%CNC CNC豸 9.35%78.30%3.02%2.75%6.57%CNC 7 8CNC Wind Wind 2019CNC 豸0.68%47.03%3.16% 3.49%14.89%2017-2019 48.05%50.21%47.31%豸 17.83%23.7914.89%10% 2015-20196.11%1.71%4.4pct

7、 15.36 21.4 50.02 99.48 136.87 208.1% 39.3% 133.7% 98.9% 37.6% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YOY 0.22 0.3 1.32 3.08 3.57 86.2% 35.6% 344.0% 133.3% 16.0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YOY , 78.06% CNC , 9.48% , 5.45% , 4.49% 豸, 2.51% 0.68% 47.03% 3.16% 3.49% 14.89% 0%

8、 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% CNC 豸 7 / 18 9% 10% WindCNC 2017 Wind2017 2 2014 2014 2015 2016 33 / 2017 2018 34.5%201811 巢 顣2019 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (%) CNC(%) (%) (%) 豸(%) -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (%) (%) (%) (%) 8 / 18 112015-2019/CAGR88% Wind 2018 鰸 40% 20

9、19612 鹩廯 鳤2019614 鰸 12 Wind 8.5 14.13 30.52 72.83 106.84 3.74 6.34 7.46 1.13 4.22 6.23 7.39 6.14 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR =88% 9 / 18 3 豸 3.1 豸 棬缯 丹 衣 20141415 2017 2019 2019516 2020 2025 2035 2050 裬 3.2 豸豸 豸豸豸 豸1豸 2豸ARMG ARTGARMGRTG RTG ARTG 3豸AGV +AGV+ARMG 1+AVG+ARMG

10、 10 / 18 2+ARMG 3+AVG+ARTG 4+ARMG 5 +AGV+ARMG ARMG豸AGV +ARMG+ + ARMG+AGV+ARTG TCB + ARMG 硰+ +ARMG+ARTG+ + 13+AGV+ARMG 3.3 豸 15 /豸 豸 豸棬 11 / 18 5GGPS 豸豸临 豸 豸 豸 20162 PPIT12 2.472017 20173 182.04 12顣20193PSATuas 28 ARMG 5 2020 4 5G/ 2017 20076 / IT/ 12 / 18 14 4.1 5G 20195G201812 齫5G衱 201920196 緢5G115

11、G 5G 4.1.1 5G轫壬 5G轫201913 5G63迪5G 4020205G60 2020-20235G 5G 5G4G1-1.2 500-600 4G罨2021-2023 8011085 2020-20255G77005G豸 5G4G 5G4G5G 5G25/ 5G14/ 2020-20255G 乲7700 13 / 18 152020-20255G 162020-20255G 5G5G 5GBBU(CU DU)+AAUAAU5G AAU 5G 5G豸4G 3 25G豸4G3 4GS333 5GS111 5GS111 4/5G 100% 1044.72W 3674.85W 3852.

12、5W 5G4G3.5 50% 995.06W 2969.97W 3196.2W 5G4G3 3AAU5G 豸 AAU/RRUW BBUW AAU/RRUW BBUW 5G 100% 1127.38 293.012 1175.4 325.8 50% 892.32 293.012 956.8 325.8 30% 762.43 292.537 856.9 319 20% 733.92 293.2333 797.5 319 10% 699.36 293.416 738.6 319 633 293.568 663 330 4G 100% 289.68 175.68 - - 50% 273.58 174.

13、32 - - 30% 259.1 171.92 - - 222.59 169.44 236.7 286.26 60 80 110 85 60 45 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 5G 1375 1600 1980 1360 840 630 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 5G 14 / 18 5G5G 豸5G 850HII1066HC豸 4.1.2 5G豸 CNCCNC 躣 CNC 豸 CNC豸 OPPOVIVO CN

14、C 17CNC 桢 5G豸5G 缼20245G10 20255G90%5G 豸AR/VR豸5G 豸 豸 5GCNC5G 5G 5G豸 5G5G 5G CNC2019H24G 豸2015-2017 15 / 18 5G豸5G 4.2 201811 5000 飬4.2蹤24 5000620206 漰3C 5 裺 5G衢5G 轫豸 棬 2020/2021/2022 145/167/1934.2/5.5/7.1EPS 0.42/0.54/0.71 PE 16/12/92020-2022PE 衰 4 % PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E

15、 002520.SZ 7.5 16.8 48.0 18.4 15.4 28.8 21.7 18.3 15.9 300161.SZ 23.3 -8.1 950.3 -22.4 - 158.5 25.0 32.2 - 002559.SZ 7.0 -13.0 19.5 22.4 20.4 32.6 33.4 27.3 22.7 - - - - - 73.3 26.0 19.3 26.7 002685.SZ 6.5 16.0 18.1 28.8 31.0 18.4 15.6 12.1 9.2 Wind 2020/7/23Wind 6 5G硣 16 / 18 () 2018A 2019A 2020E 2

16、021E 2022E () 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 3169 4279 4879 5510 6127 9948 13687 14510 16698 19253 279 527 653 796 994 9275 12908 13632 15626 17945 1615 2633 2692 3017 3144 21 19 27 31 35 17 25 36 29 45 102 112 75 94 108 249 350 414 465 548 78 90 68 87 92 726 670 804 886 1055 54 55 44 83 96 283 74 28

17、0 317 340 3 32 33 37 32 2765 3067 3058 3152 3242 54 -3 0 0 0 31 28 24 21 17 31 47 0 0 0 268 423 459 543 622 0 0 0 0 0 156 152 166 183 204 0 0 0 0 0 2310 2464 2409 2405 2399 0 0 0 0 0 5934 7346 7937 8661 9369 392 427 631 740 944 1199 2255 2161 2541 2512 3 2 2 2 2 370 653 924 799 899 2 1 1 1 1 337 684

18、 571 801 771 394 428 632 741 944 491 918 665 941 842 71 65 122 132 166 8 42 42 42 42 323 363 510 609 779 0 0 0 0 0 15 6 88 66 67 8 42 42 42 42 308 357 422 543 711 1207 2297 2203 2583 2554 EBITDA 443 490 698 815 1022 100 106 194 260 327 EPS() 0.31 0.35 0.42 0.54 0.71 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 3024 302

19、6 3026 3026 3026 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 574 881 1248 1734 2359 4627 4942 5540 5818 6487 (%) 98.9 37.6 6.0 15.1 15.3 5934 7346 7937 8661 9369 (%) 97.6 8.9 47.5 17.3 27.5 (%) 133.3 16.0 18.1 28.8 31.0 (%) 6.8 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.8 (%) 3.1 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 () 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E ROE(%) 6.8 7.

20、2 9.3 10.0 11.4 -227 -61 6 481 315 ROIC(%) 6.7 6.8 8.5 9.5 10.8 323 363 510 609 778 35 38 37 44 53 (%) 20.3 31.3 27.8 29.8 27.3 3 32 33 37 32 (%) 1.9 3.8 5.6 0.6 -0.9 -0 -0 0 0 0 2.6 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.4 -640 -575 -583 -208 -549 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 52 81 9 -2 -1 -397 45 -37 -136 -143 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1

21、99 120 31 89 92 7.1 6.4 5.5 5.8 6.3 -309 216 4 3 3 21.0 25.3 21.7 22.8 22.8 -606 380 -2 -43 -48 () 174 127 -67 24 25 () 0.31 0.35 0.42 0.54 0.71 220 282 47 100 100 () -0.23 -0.06 0.01 0.48 0.31 0 0 0 0 0 () 4.59 4.90 5.27 5.77 6.44 0 0 0 0 0 -1 2 0 0 0 P/E 21.3 18.4 15.6 12.1 9.2 -44 -157 -114 -76 -75 P/B 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 -437 114 -98 369 197 EV/EBITDA 15.3 14.0 10.1 8.4 6.7 17 / 18 201771 涨R3 C3C4C5 C3C4C5 档 Buy 20% outperform 5%20% Neutral 5%5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612A 300 500 飻 統棬 裬 漰 18 / 18 浱 档 顣 顣 漰 漰漰 漰 İ鱾汣İ 1B5 710065 绰 棺