1、LME+0.2%10258/ -4.4%18800/-9.3%96.2 澶畻鍟嗗搧鏉垮潡浠锋牸鍜屽簱瀛樺弻鍛瑙?. 4 澶畻鍟嗗搧鏉垮潡浠锋牸鍜屽簱瀛樺弻鍛瑙?. 6 澶畻鍟嗗搧鏉垮潡楂橀鏁版嵁姒傝 . 8 鐓偔 . 8 鏈夎壊 . 11 閽搧 . 14 姘存偿 . 15 鍥捐 1锛氬瀹楀晢鍝佷环鏍兼瑙?. 4 鍥捐 2锛氬瀹楀晢鍝佸簱瀛樻瑙?. 4 鍥捐 3锛氭澘鍧楄偂浠疯鐜板洖椤?. 5 鍥捐 4锛氬悇鏉垮潡杩囧幓涓懆鑲环琛幇鏈濂界殑 5 鏀釜鑲?. 5 鍥捐 5锛氬悇鏉垮潡杩囧幓涓懆鑲环琛幇鏈宸殑 5 鏀釜鑲?. 6 鍥捐 6锛氬浐瀹氳祫浜姇璧勶紙FAI锛夊閫燂紙鏈堝害绱鍚屾瘮锛?. 6

2、 鍥捐 7锛氬熀寤烘姇璧勫閫燂紙鏈堝害绱鍚屾瘮锛?. 6 鍥捐 8锛氬埗閫犱笟鎶曡祫澧為燂紙鏈堝害绱鍚屾瘮锛?. 7 鍥捐 9锛氭埧鍦颁骇鎶曡祫澧為燂紙鏈堝害绱鍚屾瘮锛?. 7 鍥捐 10锛氬湴浜柊寮宸潰绉閫燂紙鏈堝害绱鍚屾瘮锛?. 7 鍥捐 11锛氬湴浜宸潰绉佷綇瀹呯宸潰绉閫燂紙鏈堝害绱鍚屾瘮锛?. 7 鍥捐 12锛氱鐨囧矝鐓偔搴撳瓨 . 8 鍥捐 13锛氱鐨囧矝鐓环 . 8 鍥捐 14锛氱鐨囧矝璋冨害鏁版嵁 . 8 鍥捐 15锛氶噸鐐圭數鍘傛棩鍧囪楃叅閲?. 8 鍥捐 16锛氬叏绀句細鐓偔搴撳瓨 . 8 鍥捐 17锛氶噸鐐圭數鍘傜叅鐐簱瀛?. 8 鍥捐 18锛氬師鐓綋鏈堜骇閲?. 9 鍥捐

3、 19锛氬師鐓湀搴疮璁骇閲?. 9 鍥捐 20锛氬北瑗挎煶鏋楀湴鍖虹劍鐓环鏍艰蛋鍔垮浘 . 9 鍥捐 21锛氭湀搴叅鐐繘鍙噺 . 10 鍥捐 22锛氱叅鐐澘鍧楀彲姣斿叕鍙镐及鍊艰 . 10 鍥捐 23锛歀ME 閾滀环鍙婂簱瀛?. 11 鍥捐 24锛氬浗鍐呴摐浠峰強搴撳瓨 . 11 鍥捐 25锛歀ME 閾濅环鍙婂簱瀛?. 11 鍥捐 26锛氬浗鍐呴摑浠峰強搴撳瓨 . 11 鍥捐 27锛氫笂娴烽攲搴撳瓨 . 12 鍥捐 28锛氶晙閿屾澘浜噺 . 12 鍥捐 29锛氭礂琛満浜噺 . 12 鍥捐 30锛氱璋冧骇閲?. 12 鍥捐 31锛氱數缃戝缓璁炬姇璧?. 12 qRpMtNuNnMrRqPnOtM

4、mQoPaQ9R8OtRqQnPrQjMnNmRkPmPmN8OtRnOvPnQuMxNnRpQ 鍥捐 32: 鏈夎壊鏉垮潡鍙瘮鍏徃浼板艰 . 13 鍥捐 33锛氱矖閽骇閲忓強鏈堝害鍚屾瘮 . 14 鍥捐 34锛氶挗鏉愬嚭鍙噺鍙婃湀搴悓姣?. 14 鍥捐 35锛氫笂娴峰競鍦洪挗鏉愪环鏍艰蛋鍔?. 14 鍥捐 36锛氶挗鏉愮浼氬簱瀛?. 14 鍥捐 37锛氬叏鍥?163 瀹堕挗鍘傞珮鐐夊紑宸巼 . 14 鍥捐 38锛氬垎閽潗鍝佺妯嫙鍚瘺鍒秼鍔?. 14 鍥捐 39: 閽搧鏉垮潡鍙瘮鍏徃浼板艰 . 15 鍥捐 40锛氭按娉骇閲忓強鏈堝害鍚屾瘮 . 15 鍥捐 41锛氬叏鍥芥按娉钩鍧囧嚭璐巼鍙樺寲

5、. 15 鍥捐 42锛氭按娉环鏍艰蛋鍔垮浘 . 16 鍥捐 43锛氬叏鍥介噸鐐瑰煄甯傛按娉拰鐔熸枡搴撳姣旇蛋鍔?. 16 鍥捐 44锛氬叏鍥介噸鐐瑰煄甯傜（鏈哄紑宸巼璧板娍 . 16 鍥捐 45锛氬惃姘存偿鐓偔浠锋牸宸?. 17 鍥捐 46: 姘存偿鏉垮潡鍙瘮鍏徃浼板艰 . 18 鍥捐 47: 鐜荤拑鏉垮潡鍙瘮鍏徃浼板艰 . 18 鍥捐 48: 娑堣垂寤烘潗鏉垮潡鍙瘮鍏徃浼板艰 . 19 鍥捐 49: 閫犵焊鏉垮潡鍙瘮鍏徃浼板艰 . 19 浠锋牸浠锋牸鍗曚綅鍗曚綅褰撳墠浠锋牸褰撳墠浠锋牸鍙屽懆鍙樺姩鍙屽懆鍙樺姩1涓湀鍙樺姩1涓湀鍙樺姩3涓湀鍙樺姩3涓湀鍙樺姩YTD鍙樺姩YTD鍙樺姩YTD鍧囧糦

6、TD鍧囧糦TD鍧囦环鍚屾瘮YTD鍧囦环鍚屾瘮 LME閾滅編鍏?鍚?0,2580.2%4.4%13.0%32.1%8,95664.1% 鍥藉唴閾滃厓/鍚?3,470-2.1%2.3%7.2%26.7%65,75848.7% LME閿岀編鍏?鍚?,0604.2%4.6%9.6%11.2%2,82737.4% 鍥藉唴閿屽厓/鍚?3,5004.2%5.4%6.3%8.4%21,95627.6% LME閾濈編鍏?鍚?,4830.8%3.6%15.2%25.4%2,21336.1% 鍥藉唴閾濆厓/鍚?8,800-4.4%-0.2%8.9%19.7%17,14331.1% Comex榛勯噾缇庡厓/鐩庡徃1,

7、9053.5%7.7%9.9%0.0%1,8028.3% 鍥藉唴榛勯噾鍏?鍏?912.3%5.3%5.0%-1.3%3793.4% 鍥藉唴閽撮噾灞炲厓/鍏枻3300.0%2.2%-13.2%22.2%33429.3% 鍥藉唴纰抽吀閿傚厓/鍏枻81-1.2%-1.2%5.2%67.0%7493.3% CRB閲戝睘鎸囨暟1,1430.7%2.5%10.7%26.6%1,04650.4% 铻虹汗閽厓/鍚?,900-13.9%-4.1%5.6%9.1%4,81334.0% 鐑涧鍏?鍚?,480-12.3%-2.3%12.5%19.1%5,15742.3% 鍐疯涧鍏?鍚?,170-13.2%0.8%5.

8、8%2.8%5,98037.6% 鍏浗姘存偿(P.O 42.5)鍏?鍚?650.2%0.5%6.9%2.3%4500.9% 绉殗宀?500鍔姏鐓厓/鍚?45-11.0%4.8%48.0%5.6%75340.5% 鏌虫灄4鍙风劍鐓厓/鍚?,9809.4%20.0%26.1%29.4%1,56710.1% 搴撳瓨搴撳瓨鍗曚綅鍗曚綅褰撳墠搴撳瓨褰撳墠搴撳瓨鍙屽懆鍙樺姩鍙屽懆鍙樺姩1涓湀鍙樺姩1涓湀鍙樺姩 3涓湀鍙樺姩3涓湀鍙樺姩 LME閾滀竾鍚?2.21.0% -14.8%60.6% 鍥藉唴閾滀竾鍚?3.83.1%6.1%3.1% LME閿屼竾鍚?8.4 -1.0% -2.6%5.4% 鍥藉唴閿屼竾

9、鍚?4.7 -13.5% -13.6% -35.8% LME閾濅竾鍚?71.8 -2.5% -6.4%29.6% 鍥藉唴閾濅竾鍚?6.2 -9.3% -13.7% -11.1% 铻虹汗閽竾鍚?47.7-11.7%-24.2%-38.8% 鐑涧涓囧惃251.90.2%1.4%-18.9% 鍐疯涧涓囧惃117.74.7%1.1%-2.9% 鍏浗姘存偿搴撳姣?/ppt55.24.86.4-7.6 绉殗宀涚叅鐐竾鍚?86.0-0.8%9.7%-19.0% 鏉垮潡鏀剁洏浠锋澘鍧楁敹鐩樹环浠爜浠爜YTDYTD杩囧幓3涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓3涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓1涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓1涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓2鍛彉鍔繃鍘?鍛彉鍔

10、?娌繁300000300.SH2.1%-0.3%3.9%4.1% 鐓偔801021.SI14%17%1.3%-1.9% 姘存偿801711.SI-3.0%-5.8%-0.4%-2.1% 閽搧801040.SI25%15%-2.9%-4.0% 鏈夎壊801050.SI15%3.7%7.0%3.9% 鏉垮潡鍜屼釜鑲澘鍧楀拰涓偂浠爜浠爜YTDYTD杩囧幓3涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓3涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓1涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓1涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓2鍛彉鍔繃鍘?鍛彉鍔?鐓偔鐓偔 鍏拌姳绉戝垱-A60012325%40%20%6.0% 涓叅鑳芥簮-H1898.hk109%53%17%4.9% 骞崇叅鑲唤-A60166620%

11、39%8.7%3.0% 棣栭挗璧勬簮-H0639.hk15%6.6%5.0%2.0% 涓浗绁炲崕-A60108811%12%2.2%-0.2% 姘存偿姘存偿 娴疯灪姘存偿-H0914.HK-1.1%-3.8%2.0%3.6% 涓浗寤烘潗-H3323.HK17%-7.7%-4.1%3.0% 涓婂嘲姘存偿00067210%0.7%11%2.9% 鍗庢鼎姘存偿鎺偂-H1313.HK-1.1%-7.3%1.0%1.2% 閲戦殔鑲唤-H2009.HK6.1%-1.1%0.7%0.1% 閽搧閽搧 鏂瑰鐗归挗60050732%28%0.4%1.7% 涓俊鐗归挗00070813%-12%-10%1.4% 闉嶉

12、挗鑲唤-H 0347.HK 62%41%-4.8%0.2% 闉嶉挗鑲唤-A00089844%35%-10%-2.5% 瀹濋挗鑲唤-A60001932%4.5%-11%-3.3% 鏈夎壊鏈夎壊 椴佷赴鑲唤-A00237945%33%42%23% 璐电爺閾備笟-A60045922%40%25%22% 璧攱閿備笟-H1772.hk12%4.5%5.9%20% 濞佸崕鑲唤-A00224021%37%14%17% 璧攱閿備笟-A00246017%20%20%16% 鏉垮潡鍜屼釜鑲澘鍧楀拰涓偂浠爜浠爜YTDYTD杩囧幓3涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓3涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓1涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓1涓湀鍙樺姩杩囧幓2鍛彉鍔繃鍘?鍛

13、彉鍔?鐓偔鐓偔 涓叅鑳芥簮-A60189862%45%-0.4%-7.5% 姘告嘲鑳芥簮-A60015721%19%-6.4%-4.1% 瀹濇嘲闅?A601011-4.7%0.2%-1.0%-3.8% 浼婃嘲鐓偔-H3948.hk0.4%4.7%3.3%-3.4% 寮婊偂浠?A60099728%7.6%-1.2%-3.2% 姘存偿姘存偿 鍗庢柊姘存偿-A6008017.1%-1.3%-2.3%-4.7% 涓囧勾闈?007892.3%1.2%2.3%-4.4% 閲戦殔闆嗗洟-A601992-6.7%-3.1%0.0%-2.8% 绁佽繛灞?A600720-2.1%-9.3%-0.2%-2.1% 浜

14、氭床姘存偿-H0743.HK4.4%1.1%-7.4%-2.1% 閽搧閽搧 瀹夐槼閽搧60056931%42%2.5%-16% 椹挗鑲唤-A60080841%36%-4.6%-12% 鏌抽挗鑲唤60100329%12%-8.6%-11% 鍗楅挗鑲唤60028226%16%-8.1%-10% 娌抽挗鑲唤-A00070912%14%-3.8%-9.1% 鏈夎壊鏈夎壊 绔犳簮閽笟-A002378 88%69%7.0%-11% 浜旂熆璧勬簮-H1208.hk40%-3.5%-2.3%-7.6% 鎬悆璧勬簮-A60138823%16%-2.6%-5.9% 浜氬绉戞妧-A002540-6.9%2.1%-0

15、.4%-5.7% 閲戦捈鑲唤-A601958-1.6%-2.1%1.5%-3.5% -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 鎴垮眿鏂板紑宸潰绉? 绱鍚屾瘮 % 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1, 000 2016/052017/052018/052019/052020/052021/05 涓囧惃 绉殗宀涚叅鐐簱瀛? 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1, 000 1, 100 2016/052017/052018/0

16、52019/052020/052021/05 灞辫浼樻贩 5500(澶崱/鍗冨厠)澶悓浼樻贩 5800(澶崱/鍗冨厠) 鍏?鍚? 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2016/052017/052018/052019/052020/052021/05 娓彛鍚炲悙閲忥紙宸酱锛夐敋鍦扮叅鐐埞鑸讹紙鍙宠酱锛? 涓囧惃鑹? 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2015/102016/102017/102018/102019/102020/10 閲嶇偣鐢靛巶鑰楃叅閲忥紙涓囧惃锛? 涓囧惃 0 5, 000 10,

17、000 15, 000 20, 000 25, 000 30, 000 35, 000 40, 000 2016/032017/032018/032019/032020/032021/03 鍏浼氱叅鐐簱瀛橀噺(涓囧惃) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 2015/102016/102017/102018/102019/102020/10 閲嶇偣鐢靛巶鐓偔搴撳瓨锛堝乏杞达級搴撳瓨鍙敤澶暟锛堝彸杞达級 鐧句竾鍚? -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0 5, 000 10, 000

18、 15, 000 20, 000 25, 000 30, 000 35, 000 40, 000 2016/042017/042018/042019/042020/042021/04 鍘熺叅褰撴湀浜噺锛堝乏杞达級鍚屾瘮锛堝彸杞达級 涓囧惃 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 50, 000 100, 000 150, 000 200, 000 250, 000 300, 000 350, 000 400, 000 450, 000 2016/042017/042018/042019/042020/042021/04 鍘熺叅鏈堝害绱浜噺锛堝乏杞达級

19、绱鍚屾瘮锛堝彸杞达級 涓囧惃 0 200 400 600 800 1, 000 1, 200 1, 400 1, 600 1, 800 2, 000 2, 200 2016/052017/052018/052019/052020/052021/05 鏌虫灄4鍙风劍鐓煶鏋?鍙风劍鐓? 鍏?鍚? -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 5, 000 10, 000 15, 000 20, 000 25, 000 30, 000 35, 000 2016/042017/042018/042019/042020/042021/04 褰撴湀杩涘彛锛氱叅鍙婅鐓紙宸酱锛夋湀搴

20、疮璁繘鍙細鐓強瑜愮叅锛堝乏杞达級绱鍚屾瘮锛堝彸杞达級 涓囧惃 鑲环(RMB)鑲环(RMB)甯傚煎競鍊?2021/5/282021/5/28(RMB mn)(RMB mn)2019A2019A2020A2020A2021E2021E2019A2019A2020A2020A2021E2021E2019A2019A2020A2020A2021E2021E2019A2019A2020A2020A2021E2021E 鐒叅鍏徃鐒叅鍏徃 瑗垮北鐓數000983 6.6927,4060.420.480.7616.014.08.74.990.005.421.3n.a.1.2 骞崇叅鑲唤6016667.1216

21、,7230.490.590.8714.512.18.25.890.006.921.2n.a.1.0 寮婊偂浠?009977.3411,6540.720.681.2110.110.86.17.130.008.171.0n.a.0.9 娼炲畨鐜兘60169910.2230,5720.800.651.4212.915.87.28.340.009.721.2n.a.1.1 鍐涓兘婧?00937 3.9914,0990.260.220.3015.617.913.55.790.005.440.7n.a.0.7 涓婃捣鑳芥簮6005089.456,8300.790.921.2811.910.27.413.6

22、50.0015.250.7n.a.0.6 鐩樻睙鑲唤6003956.8311,3040.660.520.7510.413.19.14.440.004.621.5n.a.1.5 鏃犵儫鐓叕鍙告棤鐑熺叅鍏徃 鍏拌姳绉戝垱6001237.198,2140.580.331.0112.421.97.19.190.0010.030.8n.a.0.7 绁炵伀鑲唤00093311.5025,6620.600.161.2919.171.68.93.490.004.203.3n.a.2.7 闃虫硥鐓笟6003485.8113,9730.710.630.798.29.37.46.890.0010.480.8n.a.

23、0.6 鍔姏鐓叕鍙稿姩鍔涚叅鍏徃 涓浗绁炲崕*601088璺戣耽琛屼笟19.93376,2992.181.972.129.210.19.417.7118.1318.481.11.11.1 涓叅鑳芥簮*601898璺戣耽琛屼笟7.2382,0840.420.450.7517.016.29.77.337.618.221.01.00.9 鍏栧窞鐓笟*600188涓?3.3455,1372.041.461.856.59.17.215.3611.1111.960.91.21.1 闄曡鐓笟*601225璺戣耽琛屼笟11.83118,3001.161.491.2710.27.99.35.897.027.52

24、2.01.71.6 澶悓鐓笟6010016.9811,6820.540.000.9713.0n.a.7.23.830.005.321.8n.a.1.3 鎭掓簮鐓數6009716.027,2240.940.000.776.4n.a.7.87.270.008.130.8n.a.0.7 闇插鐓笟00212810.4820,1381.280.001.528.2n.a.6.98.400.0010.381.2n.a.1.0 鍥芥姇鏂伴泦6019183.809,8440.220.000.3517.1n.a.10.92.350.003.001.6n.a.1.3 灞辩叅鍥介檯6005466.5112,9060.

25、590.001.1511.0n.a.5.63.250.005.662.0n.a.1.2 娉細鏍囨敞*鐨勫叕鍙镐负涓噾鍏徃棰勬祴锛屽叾浣欎负甯傚満涓鑷撮鏈? 鑲环(HKD)鑲环(HKD)甯傚煎競鍊?2021/5/282021/5/28(HK$ mn)(HK$ mn)2019A2019A2020A2020A2021E2021E2019A2019A2020A2020A2021E2021E2019A2019A2020A2020A2021E2021E2019A2019A2020A2020A2021E2021E 涓浗绁炲崕*1088.HK璺戣耽琛屼笟17.14457,3342.101.802.107.38

26、.67.017.9218.3318.620.90.80.8 涓叅鑳芥簮*1898.HK璺戣耽琛屼笟4.7199,7610.470.400.849.010.54.87.327.598.300.60.60.5 鍏栧窞鐓笟*1171.HK涓?.8967,0111.931.301.764.66.94.811.1111.8812.830.80.70.7 浼婃嘲鐓偔*3948.HK涓?.3617,4411.16-0.200.614.1n.a.7.610.7310.1610.540.40.50.5 棣栭挗璧勬簮* (HK$)0639.HK璺戣耽琛屼笟2.0910,5580.230.210.289.39.87

27、.53.103.133.250.70.70.6 娉細鏍囨敞*鐨勫叕鍙镐负涓噾鍏徃棰勬祴锛屽叾浣欎负甯傚満涓鑷撮鏈? EPS(RMB)EPS(RMB)P/E(x)P/E(x)BPS(RMB)BPS(RMB)P/B(x)P/B(x) EPS(RMB)EPS(RMB)P/E(x)P/E(x)BPS(RMB)BPS(RMB)P/B(x)P/B(x) 浠爜浠爜H鑲叅鐐叕鍙窰鑲叅鐐叕鍙歌瘎绾瘎绾? A鑲叅鐐叕鍙窤鑲叅鐐叕鍙歌瘎绾瘎绾唬鐮佷唬鐮? 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 3, 000 4, 000 5, 000 6, 000 7, 000 8, 000 9, 000

28、 10, 000 11, 000 2016/052017/052018/052019/052020/052021/05 缇庡厓/鍚? LM E閾滃簱瀛橈紙鍙宠酱锛塋M E閾滀环锛堝乏杞达級 鍗冨惃 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 20, 000 30, 000 40, 000 50, 000 60, 000 70, 000 80, 000 2016/052017/052018/052019/052020/052021/05 鍏?鍚? 涓婃捣閾滃簱瀛橈紙鍙宠酱锛変笂娴烽摐浠凤紙宸酱锛? 鍗冨惃 0 500 1, 000 1, 500 2, 000 2,

29、500 3, 000 1, 000 1, 200 1, 400 1, 600 1, 800 2, 000 2, 200 2, 400 2, 600 2, 800 2016/052017/052018/052019/052020/052021/05 缇庡厓/鍚? LM E閾濆簱瀛橈紙鍙宠酱锛塋M E閾濅环锛堝乏杞达級 鍗冨惃 0 200 400 600 800 1, 000 1, 200 9, 000 11, 000 13, 000 15, 000 17, 000 19, 000 21, 000 2016/052017/052018/052019/052020/052021/05 鍏?鍚? 涓婃

30、捣閾濆簱瀛橈紙鍙宠酱锛変笂娴烽摑浠凤紙宸酱锛? 鍗冨惃 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2016/052017/052018/052019/052020/052021/05 涓囧惃 涓婃捣閿屽簱瀛? -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 500 1, 000 1, 500 2, 000 2, 500 ---03 鍏浗閲嶇偣浼佷笟闀閿屾澘浜噺锛堜竾鍚級鍏浗閲嶇偣浼佷笟闀閿屾澘閿閲忥紙涓囧惃锛? 浜噺绱澧為熼攢閲忕疮璁閫? -25% -5% 15% 35% 55

31、% 75% 0 1, 000 2, 000 3, 000 4, 000 5, 000 6, 000 7, 000 8, 000 9, 000 ---04 褰撴湀娲楄。鏈轰骇閲忥紙鍗冨彴锛夌疮璁悓姣? -45% -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 0 5, 000 10, 000 15, 000 20, 000 25, 000 30, 000 ---04 褰撴湀绌鸿皟浜噺锛堝崈鍙帮級绱鍚屾瘮 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 1, 000 2, 000 3, 000 4, 000 5, 000 6, 000 2015/042016/042017/042018/042019/042020/042021/04 鐢电綉鍩烘湰寤鸿鎶曡祫绱瀹屾垚棰濈疮璁悓姣旓紙鍙宠酱锛? 浜垮厓 飩? 飩? 飩? 飩? 飩? 飩?