1、Establishing Leadership in Advanced Logic TechnologyWhat Would It Take?November 2021By Raj Varadarajan, Ramiro Palma, and Antonio Varas Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. BCG was th

2、e pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. Today, we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage, and drive positive societal impact.Our diverse, global

3、 teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives that question the status quo and spark change. BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting, technology and design, and corporate and digital ventures. We work in a uniquely collaborative model acros

4、s the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization, fueled by the goal of helping our clients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.Contents02 | Executive Summary04 | What happened to US leadership in advanced logic technology?08 | What would it take to reestablish t

5、echnology leadership in the US?15 | Conclusion2 ESTABLISHING LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED LOGIC TECHNOLOGYExecutive SummaryAdvanced logic technology is critical for the national security and economic progress of any developed economy. For example, advanced logic chips are essential for seven of the ten te

6、chnologies identified as strategic in a biparti-san bill to enhance US innovation and global competitive-ness passed by the US Senate in June 20211, as well as for several priority defense system modernization programs. In Korea, the government is making preemptive invest-ments in infrastructure for

7、 advanced logic technology to further strengthen its domestic ecosystem. In Japan, offi-cials have pushed the importance of reducing the cost and promoting access to advanced logic chips. And in Europe, competitiveness and technology sovereignty are top rea-sons for investing in a state-of-the-art E

8、uropean chip eco-system, to ensure security of supply and develop new markets for groundbreaking technology.Access to leading-node manufacturing (which today corre-sponds to the manufacturing nodes of 10nm) is critical to produce the most advanced logic chips. Until 2018, the US led the world in adv

9、anced technology needed to develop leading nodes. Today, while still a global leader in semicon-ductor sales and value-add overall, the US depends heavily on East Asia for the manufacturing portion of the value chain. And this dependence is particularly significant for leading-node manufacturing, wh

10、ere 90% of the total global capacity is currently concentrated in Taiwan. The recent push to attract global semiconductor manufacturing lead-ers to invest in building fabs in the US does accomplish one key goalit reduces the risk of supply disruptions. However, if the US wants to reclaim strategic a

11、dvantage, the US will need to go beyond increasing share of manu-facturing and reestablish US leadership, in advanced logic technology. In other words, to establish leadership the US needs both increased capacity and capability in advanced logic technologies. The next few years present an important

12、opportunity to reestablish this leadership, as the industry makes several major transitions in advanced technology, (such as gate-all-around (GAA) transistor architecture and next generation of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography). These new technologies, expected to be introduced start-ing in 202

13、4-2025, still require significant R&D to turn them from scientific developments into viable manu-facturing processes. In addition, based on analyst forecasts, by 2030, at least 45 leading-node fabseach with capacity of 35,000 wafers per month (wpm)will need to be built to meet expected growth in chi

14、p demand. Reestablishing US leadership in advanced logic technology involves three essential interrelated elements: Regaining manufacturing process technology leadership with IP and know-how based in the US to enable new leading-nodes Aggressively building US-based leading-node fab capac-ityenough f

15、abs for the US to sustain ongoing invest-ments needed to maintain technology leadership Developing complementary advanced packaging capabil-ities, which are increasingly needed to make the most powerful logic devices, with state-of-the-art facilities in the US These three essential elements to achie

16、ve technology leadership depend on a dozen enabling factors (which we discuss in detail in an upcoming report). But, our analysis indicates that the US is currently behind Taiwan and South Korea in six of these areas. The most critical gaps are in:1 Fab costover ten years it is approximately 30% mor

17、e costly to build and operate fabs in the US relative to other countries with advanced logic technology, due primarily to government incentives available else-where.2 Public funding for R&Dadjusted for factor costs, (e.g., labor) public investment in R&D related to semi-conductor manufacturing in th

18、e US lags that in Tai-wan and Korea. In addition to these two most fundamental challenges, other priority areas for improvement in the US include:3 Industry clusters at scale4 Semiconductor research networks5 Continued access to world-class semiconductor R&D talent6 Expansion of the US semiconductor

19、 manufacturing workforce.This strategic challenge will require substantial commit-ment from private sector over multiple years, supported by comprehensive US public policy. 1. U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021 (USICA), formerly known as the Endless Frontier ActBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 3Abou

20、t This ReportTo assess the current relative positions of different regions in advanced logic technology and potential strategic paths to achieving technology leadership in this arena, Intel commissioned Boston Consulting Group to conduct an independent study. The work focused on answering two questi

21、ons. (1) What has happened to US leadership in advanced logic technol-ogy? (2) What would it take to reestablish technology leadership in the US? BCG is wholly responsible for the analysis and conclusions that appear in this report.4 ESTABLISHING LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED LOGIC TECHNOLOGYWhat happened

22、to US leadership in advanced logic technology? Semiconductors are the enabling technology of the digital age, and therefore are critical for the economic progress and national security of any developed economy. Semiconductors are also one of the four areas covered in the 100-Day Reviews mandated by

23、President Biden under Executive Order 14017 focused on building resilient supply chains, revitalizing American manufactur-ing, and fostering broad-based growth. The report from this review, published in June 2021, establishes that “semicon-ductors are essential to the advanced technology powering ec

24、onomic, technological, and military competitiveness in the US.”2US firms have consistently accounted for 40% to 50% of total worldwide semiconductor sales in the last 30 years, while US OEMs account for about 33% of all semiconduc-tor demand, making the US the clear global leader.3 This overall lead

25、ership position is built on strength in the activi-ties across the semiconductor value chain that are most R&D intensive: electronic design automation (EDA) tools and core IP blocks, chip design, and manufacturing equip-ment. However, the US is heavily dependent on Asia for semiconductor manufacturi

26、ng: just 12% of the global capacity for wafer fabrication and 2% of the capacity for BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 5packaging, assembly, and test is located in the US.4 In contrast, mainland China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan combined account for about 75% of the global capacity in wafer fabrication as

27、 well as packaging, assembly, and test.The US led the industry in advanced logic technology and therefore leading-node manufacturing for more than four decades, pioneering major manufacturing technology developments such as the transition to strained silicon at 90 nm, to high-k metal gates at 45 nm,

28、 and to the FinFET transistor architecture at 22 nm, and was first to reach the 14 nm node in 2014. As Exhibit 1 shows, over 50% of the global installed capacity in the 16, 14, and 10 nm nodeswhich were were leading-nodes between 2014-2018 and are now referred to as advanced nodesis located in the U

29、S. Leadership in advanced logic technology requires a sus-tained investment in R&D and manufacturing facilities of over $15 billion per year.5 This is the only way to maintain the relentless pace of innovation in process technology that requires migration to smaller, more complex nodes, every two to

30、 three yearsa regular cadence of technology improvement commonly referred to as “Moores Law.” With these extreme requirements for investment and expertise, the number of companies capa-ble of manufacturing on leading nodes has shrunk to just three companies from more than 25 back in 2000, when the l

31、eading node was 130 nm. These three are Intel in the US, TSMC in Taiwan, and Samsung in South Korea. TSMC and Samsung first challenged Intel in 2018 with the introduction of their new 7 nm leading node, before pulling ahead in ramping 5 nm node production in 2020. As a result, the broad trend of US

32、reliance on non-US manufac-turing capacity is most significant in leading nodes, which today are typically considered to be manufacturing nodes below 10 nm6. (See Exhibit 1.) Leading nodes are critical for manufacturing the most powerful advanced logic pro-cessors7 used in most sophisticated electro

33、nic devicessuch as data centers, networking equipment, PCs, smart-phones, smart “edge” devices with machine learning/KoreaJapanOther2TaiwanMainlandChinaEuropeUS12%9%15%92%22%8%21%15%7%Advanced (10-16 nm)DRAMOptoNANDDiscreteLeading-node (16 nm)Analog/Power/RFMEMSTOTAL55%23%18%19%18%0%10%32%45%21% of

34、globalcapacity owned by US firmsMemoryGlobal wafer fabrication by region based on fab location, 2019 (%)LogicDAOS1No US-ownedcapacityExhibit 1More than 90% of leading-node capacity, used to manufacture the most advanced logic chips is currently located in TaiwanGlobal wafer fabrication by region bas

35、ed on fab location, 2019 (%)2. US White House, Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-Based Growth, 100-Day Reviews under Executive Order 14017, June 20213. Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), Factbook 2020, April 2020 4. BCG and Semiconducto

36、r Industry Association (SIA), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply China in an Uncertain Era, April 20215. Average of estimated R&D for manufacturing and capital expenditure of TSMC and Intel in 2015-2020 6. Leading node denominations in this report correspond to the typical industry defini

37、tions based on nanometers used by TSMC and Samsung and also consistent with the new Intel node denominations announced in July 2021. These node names should be understood as notional references: traditional nanometer-based process node naming stopped matching the actual gate-length metric in 1997. F

38、urther, the transistor density of Intels 10 nm node and TSMCs 7 nm node are roughly comparable.1. Discrete, analog, optoelectronics and sensors 2. Other includes Israel, Singapore, and the rest of the worldSources: BCG analysis with data from SEMI World Fab Database6 ESTABLISHING LEADERSHIP IN ADVAN

39、CED LOGIC TECHNOLOGYartificial intelligence (ML/AI) capabilities, and automotive advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). The high level of dependence on non-US semiconductor manufacturing capacity has been consistently identified as a major vulner-ability by the US Department of Defense (DoD).8 S

40、imilarly, the recent White House report on the US semiconductor supply chain states, “with no leading-node semiconductor manufacturers in the United States or other members of the National Technology and Industrial Base, the DoD is currently unable to ensure its access to secure supply chains.”9 Thi

41、s exposes the US to risk of disruptions in access to advanced logic chips in the event of natural disaster, trade dispute, or military conflict in East Asia, as well as to other potential risks such as IP leakage or tam-pering-with of the chips that power sensitive critical infra-structure applicati

42、ons. In addition to the supply chain risks associated with the geographic concentration of leading-node fab capacity, the White House report also acknowledges that secure access to state-of-the-art technology is needed to maintain a strategic advantage in “must-win technologies of the fu-ture” such

43、as artificial intelligence and 5G, and to provide technical superiority for some military applications, includ-ing advanced communications and navigation systems and complex weapons systems such as those found in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. In fact, the US DoD Research & Engi-neering Enterprise u

44、nit has emphasized that “the lack of long-term availability of US-based trusted foundry services for leading and advanced nodes has become a concern and an impediment to DoD innovation.” In short, the US has lost its technology leadership in leading-node manu-facturing. 7. For the purposes of this r

45、eport, advanced logic chips includes microprocessors (MPUs), central processing units (CPUs), graphics processing units (GPUs), application processors (APs), field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), and advanced processors designed for specific applications (ASICs)8. Department of Defense, Assessing

46、and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency, 2018; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, The Growing Threat to Air Force Mission-Critical Electronics: Lethality at Risk, Unclassified Summary, 2019; Department of Defense, Industrial

47、 Capabilities: Report to Congress, 20209. US White House, Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-Based Growth, 100-Day Reviews under Executive Order 14017, June 2021“Advanced logic chips manufactured in leading-node fabs outperform.” 8 ESTABLISHING

48、 LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED LOGIC TECHNOLOGYWhat would it take to reestablish technology leadership in the US?Among all types of semiconductors, advanced logic chips are of particular strategic importance for the US. For example, seven of the ten technology focus areas designated in the US Innovation an

49、d Competition Act of 2021 (USICA)a recent piece of legislation aimed at strengthening US leadership in critical technologies that was passed with wide bipartisan support by the Senate in June 2021rely on advanced logic chips:10 Artificial intelligence and machine learning High-performance computing

50、and advanced computer hardware Quantum computing Robotics, automation, and advanced manufacturing Advanced communications technology Cybersecurity, data storage, and data management Biotechnology, medical technology, genomics, and synthetic biologyBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 9Further, US defense moderni

51、zation priorities also rely on advanced logic chips in areas such as AI, advanced com-munications, autonomous systems, cryptography, and cybersecurity.11 The US is very well positioned both upstream and down-stream in the advanced logic value chain. (See Exhibit 2.) US companies are global leaders i

52、n devices that are pow-ered by advanced logic chips, with 40% to 60% market share in smartphones, PCs, servers, and networking hard-ware in 2020.12 In the fast-growing cloud services market, which relies on massive computing power in large-scale data centers, the global share of US firms exceeds 80%

53、. Another US firm, Tesla, is also the worlds leader in electric cars, which incorporate driver assistance features powered by advanced logic chips. These advanced logic chips are also typically designed by US companies. In 2020, US semiconductor companies accounted for more than 95% of global sales

54、of Central Processing Units (CPUs), Graphic Processing Units (GPUs), and Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) in 2020.13 In Application Processors (APs)including both standalone and those integrated with a baseband into a system-on-chip (SoC)the combined global market share of US semiconductor des

55、ign companies was over 50%.However, although the vast majority of advanced logic chips are designed in the US, a significant portion (about 40% on a revenue basis) are manufactured in non-US leading-node fabs.This is important because advanced logic chips manufac-tured in leading-node fabs outperfor

56、m those made in advanced-node fabs. In the last 30 years, the performance of an advanced logic microprocessor manufactured on the leading node has increased at an annualized rate of over 25%, while the ratio of performance-per-watt of power consumption has also improved by over 10% per year.14 Looki

57、ng forward, based on the roadmaps announced by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, the ongoing migration from the 7/10 nm node introduced in 2017-2018, to the 3 nm node which is expected to launch in late 2022, is anticipated to continue to deliver major improvements in processor performance, power consumptio

58、n, physical area, and cost. Therefore, advanced logic chips that are manufactured on the current leading nodes have a clear competitive advan-tage over those manufactured in older advanced nodes. From a supply chain resilience perspective, the data in Exhibit 1 also shows that the potential risk of

59、a severe supply disruption is much higher for leading-node logic chips than for other semiconductors that generally have a diversified geographic manufacturing footprint. Both Eu-rope and Japan have the capacity and know-how in dis-crete, analog/mixed signal, MEMS sensors, and logic chips manufactur

60、ed at mature nodes (above 16 nm); Japan, South Korea, and Singapore also have significant capacity Exhibit 2Leading US companies downstream in the electronics supply chain depend on access to advanced logic technologyAMDLeading US firms (select examples)ADVANCED LOGIC CHIP DESIGNMarket shareAMD, Nvi

61、diaIntel, XilinxAMD, Apple, Broadcom, Intel, Marvell, Nvidia, Qualcomm QualcommCPUsGPUsFPGA/PLDApplication processorsMobile baseband99%99%98%65%50%AppleLeading US firms (select examples)HARDWAREMarket shareApple, Dell, Hewlett-PackardCisco, Dell, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, IBMCiena, Cisco, Hewlett-

62、Packard Enterprise, Juniper NetworksAmazon Web Services, Google Cloud Platform, IBM, Microsoft AzureSmartphonesPCsServersNetworkingCloud providers39%56%61%40%83% Wafer fabrication Assembly, testing and packagingCurrently no US-based capacity in leading nodes and advanced packaging ADVANCED LOGIC TEC

63、HNOLOGYNote: Market shares calculated in revenue terms for 2020. Sources: IDC; Gartner; BCG analysis1. Including embedded MPUs, discrete application processors and certain ASICs 2. Including CSP and Enterprise equipment 3. Including IaaS and PaaS10. US Senate, S.1260 United States Innovation and Com

64、petition Act of 2021 (formerly known as Endless Frontier Act) 117th Congress (2021-2022)11. Department of Defense, National Defense Strategy of the United States of America, 2018; US White House, Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fostering Broad-Based Growth,

65、 100-Day Reviews under Executive Order 14017, June 2021. 12. Based on market data from IDC and Gartner for the respective device/service categories13. Based on semiconductor market revenue data from Gartner14. Based on analysis of data set obtained from Karl Rupp, 48 years of microprocessor trend da

66、ta available here10 ESTABLISHING LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED LOGIC TECHNOLOGYin NAND memory and optoelectronics; and while in DRAM memory, South Korea accounts for over 50% of the global capacity, there is also significant capacity in Taiwan and Japan. In contrast, the US currently relies almost exclusiv

67、e-ly on Taiwan for leading-node manufacturing capacity. In addition, many types of chips manufactured on mature nodesmicrocontrollers or power management integrated circuitsoften have longer product lifecycles and do not benefit as much from migration to smaller nodes as the most advanced processors

68、. For example, currently, 32-bit microcontrollers are manufactured in a variety of nodes ranging from 28 nm to 130 nm, which have a more diversi-fied geographic distribution. Furthermore, the US could potentially tap into the significant amount of domestic capacity that it still has in 80/90 nm or a

69、bove15 as a back-up in case access to non-US manufacturing capacity was interrupted. Therefore, building onshore leading-node capacity to manufacture advanced logic chips in the US is critical to strengthening the resilience of US supply chains. The provisions included in the CHIPS Act16 authorizing

70、 new federal incentives to attract global semiconductor manu-facturing leaders to invest in building new fabs in the US are a significant step toward that end. While the CHIPS Act only has high-level guidelines for allocation of these invest-ment incentives across specific fab projects, we expect mo

71、re specific criteria to be issued by the Biden Administra-tion. As an example of the potential impact of the CHIPS Act, we estimate that if about half of the $52 billion of new US federal funds the Senate included in its USICA bill were assigned to leading-node manufacturing capacity,17 it could sup

72、port the construction of five or six cost-competitive18 leading-node fabs, each with a capacity of 35,000 wafers per month, by 2030. This new capacity would likely be sufficient to cover the US need for advanced logic chips for critical applicationsincluding aerospace and defense, communications net

73、works, and infrastructure manage-mentwhich represent about one quarter of relevant US consumption. In parallel, the three companies currently capable of manufacturing at leading nodesIntel, TSMC, and Sam-sunghave recently announced plans or begun construc-tion on several new leading-node logic fabs

74、in the US with the start of commercial production planned for 2024-2025.19 15. As shown on Exhibit 1, at the end of 2019 the US had about 9% of the total global capacity on the mature logic nodes above 16 nmequivalent to approximately 16 fabs of 35,000 wafers per month. According to the SEMI World F

75、ab Database, 70% of this US capacity corresponded to fabs of 80/90 nm or above16. The CHIPS for America Act has been enacted as part of the fiscal 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in January 2021. Subsequently, the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act (USICA), passed by the US Senate in

76、 June 2021, has authorized $52 billion of funding for the semiconductor research, design, and manufacturing initiatives in the CHIPS Act17. This would be in line with some initial estimates of the “minimum viable US semiconductor manufacturing capacity” proposed by the Semiconductor Industry Associa

77、tion (SIA)18. As discussed in the SIAs report “Government Incentives and US Competitiveness in Semiconductor Manufacturing” advanced and leading-node logic fabs in Taiwan and Korea benefit from significant government incentives. Allocating 50% of the CHIPS act to advanced and leading-node logic fabs

78、 in the US would support building five or six fabs with cost structures comparable to Taiwan and Korea. BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 11While incentivizing global players to build new lead-ing-node logic fabs in the US is a necessary step in reduc-ing current exposure to Taiwan and South Korea, achieving

79、the more ambitious goal of regaining US technology lead-ership will require more because: 1) Strategic advantage in proprietary advanced logic technology requires localized R&D and IP leadershipLeading-node manufacturing relies on proprietary process technology developed through large investments in

80、 R&D sustained over time. As a reference, TSMC, the only one of the three companies with leading-node capabilities whose entire activity is focused on semiconductor manufacturing, currently invests $3 billion to $4 billion in R&D annuallyover five times more than the companies that manufacture chips

81、 just on mature nodes. This number has been grow-ing at an average 14% annual rate for the last ten years, reflecting the rapidly increasing cost of developing new leading nodes. IBS estimates that the cost of developing the process technology for a new leading-node has gone up by an average of 40%

82、with each node introduced in the last two decades, from approximately $100 million to $140 million for the 180 nm node in 1999-2000 to the estimated $4 billion to $5 billion cost of the new 3 nm node planned for rollout starting in late 2022.This R&D in proprietary process technology has typically b

83、een conducted in the region of a companys headquar-ters. For example, since 2000, over 90% of all the patent filings related to manufacturing by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel referred to inventions originated in their respective home regions,20 reflecting where most of their critical R&D in semiconductor

84、 manufacturing is conducted. So while having non-US-owned leading-node fabs in the US does increase supply assurance for US device makers, it will not by itself result in transfer of manufacturing technology or know-how to the US, let alone explicitly encourage in-creased R&D and proprietary IP deve

85、lopment, effectively maintaining US dependence on other countries technolo-gy in this critical area. 2) The expected impact of new leading-node fabs on the resilience of US supply chain is somewhat limited The construction of five or six new fabs of 35,000 wafers per month (wpm) located in the US wo

86、uld amount to about 10% of global leading-node capacity expected to be operational by 2030sufficient to cover around one quar-ter of US consumption. In addition, the announced US-based projects by TSMC (5 nm, with volume production start in 2024) and Samsung (5 nm, with production start in 2025) are

87、 expected to be one to two nodes behind the leading-nodeby the time they start commercial produc-tion.21 19. Reuters, TSMC says has begun construction at its Arizona chip factory site, 1 June 2021; Taipei Times, TSMC unveils layout of Arizona fab, 3 June 2021; Austin American Statesman, Samsung want

88、s $1 billion tax incentive for new Austin plant that would create 1,800 jobs, 4 February 2021; Reuters, Samsung Electronics could begin construction of new U.S. chip plant in Q3, 17 May 2021; Intel press release announcing the IDM 2.0 strategy, 23 March 2021 20. Patent origin defined by the inventor

89、 address in the filing, irrespective of the country/countries where the patent was filedExhibit 3Beyond building some domestic leading-node capacity, creating strategic advantage for the US requires technology leadership Reestablishing the US as the global leader in advanced logic technology US enti

90、ties develop and own the technology IP/know-how to produce the most advanced logic chips enabling the expansion of US-based fab clusters to make the US a leading global manufacturer including both wafer fabrication and packagingRemoves US dependence on Taiwan and S. KoreaProvides the US with strateg

91、ic advantage in critical technology fields such as HPC, AI, etc.Reinforces US control over access by strategic competitors to semiconductor technology Critical for US national security and economic progress Building some leading-node fab capacity in the US Global manufacturing leaders (either US- an

92、d/or foreign-owned) invest in building a few new 10 nm fabs (e.g.3-6 35kwpm fabs) in the US to cover a portion of US semiconductor needs with domestic productionStrengthens the US supply chain by reducing some of the current exposure to fabs concentrated in Taiwan and South Korea Necessary, but not

93、sufficient12 ESTABLISHING LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED LOGIC TECHNOLOGYBecause of synergies within manufacturers home regions as well as local interests, non-US companies have strong economic and non-economic incentives not to significantly scale their US footprints. Illustrating the point on synergies, d

94、uring the July 2021 earnings call, TSMCs Chairman Mark Liu stated that “Taiwan will continue to be the home base and center of R&D for TSMC. As the initial phase of volume production of a leading-node has to be in close proximity and closely coupled with R&D fab due to massive collaborative engi-nee

95、ring activities, our leading node will continue to be ramped in Taiwan.” In the same call with investment analysts, he also alluded to the cost differential of non-Tai-wanese fabs relative to existing manufacturing operations in Taiwan. Both Samsung in South Korea and TSMC in Taiwan have large estab

96、lished semiconductor manufactur-ing clusters of three and eight times the size of existing US clusters, respectively. We estimate that building new capac-ity in an existing cluster can create savings of up to $2 billion (5% to 7%) in the total cost of building and operat-ing an leading-node fab vs.

97、a greenfield site, on top of the cost advantages enjoyed in those locations due to local government incentives and factor costs (such as labor costs) relative to the US. Further, a strong local semiconductor manufacturing foot-print is also considered a matter of strategic importance by both Taiwan

98、and South Korea. Taiwans large semiconduc-tor manufacturing footprint has been described as “a silicon shield” due to its geopolitical significance,22 and the Taiwanese government has reinforced its commitment to supporting the expansion of its local semiconductor manu-facturing capabilities as a to

99、p priority going forward.23 Similarly, in the May 2021 announcement of the national plan to invest $450 billion in the semiconductor industry through 2030, the President of South Korea stated that the “government will unite with companies to form a semi-conductor powerhousewe will support companies

100、con-cretely.”24 In aggregate, these factors explain why nearly 90% of the capacity expansion by TSMC and Samsung since 2015 has been in their respective home countries and why TSMCs planned investment in the US over the next three years is less than 10% of the companys $100 billion capital bud-get.2

101、5 3) The US would have no export control of the advanced logic technology developed in Taiwan and Korea The US has enacted several types of export controls, for example, restricting access by Chinese entities to advanced logic chips26,27 and restricting access by Russian entities to dual-use semicon

102、ductors.28 However, such controls cannot be extended universally to chips or equipment that do not incorporate content of US origin. In parallel, there is an increasing risk of intellectual proper-ty and know-how leakage associated with ongoing talent flows from Taiwan and South Korea to mainland Ch

103、ina as it seeks to accelerate its push toward self-sufficiency. Ac-cording to Taiwanese media reports, as of 2019 nearly 10% of Taiwans total semiconductor R&D workforce (about 3,000 semiconductor engineers) had left for mainland China, including senior executives.29,30 Press reports also describe C

104、hinese attempts to recruit Korean semiconduc-tor manufacturing engineers with experience in plasma etching and yield management,31 and the Taiwanese gov-ernment has now banned recruiting activities for jobs based in mainland China.32 If the US wants to regain technology leadership, these three facto

105、rs lay out why it will need to go beyond simply constructing some leading node fabs in the next few years. (See Exhibit 3.) This entails having locally developed and controlled process technology IP and know-how to manu-facture the most advanced logic chips in the world, as well as enabling the expa

106、nsion of US-based fab clusters to make the US a leading global manufacturer of advanced logic chips againincluding both wafer fabrication and advanced packaging.The next few years through 2030 present a real opportuni-ty for the US to achieve this bolder aspiration. On the technology side, the indus

107、try roadmap for this decade focuses on continuing regular migration to smaller nodes. The move from the current leading node at 5 nm intro-duced in 2020 to 3 nm is expected to start in 2022. Howev-er, the transition to new leading nodes at 2 nm and below, expected to begin in 2024-2025, is not a lin

108、ear progression of incremental optimization from todays manufacturing technology. Rather, it depends on a number of major tech-nology breakthroughs. For example, the industry will mi-21. TSMC introduced the 5 nm node in 2020 and has announced the start of volume manufacturing at 3 nm for the second

109、half of 2022. Samsung introduced its first version of a 5 nm node (LPE) in late 2020 and has announced the introduction of its 3 nm node for 2022, with volume production for foundry customers expected in 202322. The term “silicon shield” was first introduced by Craig Addison, A Silicon Shield Protec

110、ts Taiwan From China, International Herald Tribune, 29 September 2000, and it is now widely used in media and academic coverage of the geopolitical issues around Taiwan23. As an example, see Taiwan Today, President Tsai reiterates Taiwans commitment to semiconductor industry, 25 September 2020; Reut

111、ers, Caught in China-U.S. trade war, Taiwan offers support to chipmakers, 23 September 202024. Nikkei Asia, South Korea plans to invest $450bn to become chip powerhouse, 13 May 2021 25. TSMC Q2 2021 Earnings Call transcript, 15 July 2021, available through the companys website or Refinitive.26. US D

112、epartment of Commerces Bureau of Industry and Security, Final Rule adding 77 entities to the Entity List, published on December 22, 202027. For a comprehensive review of US semiconductor export controls to China, see S. Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends, CSET Iss

113、ue Brief, October 2020BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 13grate from the FinFET transistor architecture introduced back in 2011 to the new GAA paradigm that makes vertical structures possible. Similar major technology leaps are required in architecture, materials, manufacturing process, and packaging to make

114、manufacturing possible at nodes below 2 nmthese include the next generation of extreme ultraviolet lithography called High NA EUV,33 backside power delivery, new memory, and low-resistance intercon-nect. Most of these fundamental innovations are still in research and early development stages, which

115、creates an opportuni-ty for the US to double down on ongoing R&D efforts and leapfrog the current advanced logic technology leaders. Both TSMC and Samsung led in the introduction of ex-treme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology in the first half of the past decade, which allowed them to be faste

116、r to ramp in the new 7 and 5 nm nodes. Similarly, the leaders in the next generation of leading nodes at 2 nm and below will be determined by todays R&D efforts.At the same time, a large amount of new capacity needs to be built globally to meet expected future growth in de-mand for advanced logic ch

117、ips. Based on the current range of analyst forecasts of the growth in the global sales of advanced logic chips, we estimate that at least 45 lead-ing-node fabs of 35,000 wpm of capacity will have to be in production by 2030,34 a major increase from the approxi-mately six equivalent sub-10 nm fabs re

118、ported to be al-ready operational in 2020.35 (See Exhibit 4.)28. https:/ Nikkei Asia, Taiwan loses 3,000 chip engineers to Made in China 2025, 3 December 201930. Nikkei Asia, China hires over 100 TSMC engineers in push for chip leadership, 12 August 202031. Business Korea, Chinese Companies Recruiti

119、ng Korean Semiconductor Engineers, 24 August 202032. Bloomberg, Taiwan Probe Spurs Fears of China Poaching Top Chip Talent, 9 March 2021; Financial Times, Taiwan accuses Bitmain of poaching its top chip engineers, 10 March 2021; Nikkei Asia, Taiwan to invest $300m in grad schools to stem chip brain

120、drain, 16 July 2021. 33. For a comprehensive view of technology roadmaps of the semiconductor industry, see Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (IRDS), 2020 Edition14 ESTABLISHING LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED LOGIC TECHNOLOGYThese fabs wi

121、ll need to be commercially viable invest-ments that can supply chips to global device OEMs, and invariably will be built in those locations around the world with the most attractive conditions. Further, proprietary leading-node technology is developed through close collaboration of engineering teams

122、 in R&D and in the fabs. R&D without close collaboration from manufacturing teams cannot be effectively commercial-ized; hence the increasing focus on “lab-to-fab” Initiatives. And feedback from fab teams involved in first industrial deployment efforts is essential for R&D teams to further tweak pro

123、cess technology development. As the White House report on the 100-day review of the US semiconduc-tor supply chain states, “When manufacturing heads off-shore, innovation follows ultimately, volume drives both innovation and operational learning; in the absence of the commercial volume, the United S

124、tates will not be able to keep up with the technology, in terms of quali-ty, cost, or workforce.”36 With the R&D and manufacturing incentives that the CHIPS Act can provide, the US has the opportunity to improve its semiconductor ecosystem so it can reestablish technology leadership and attract a si

125、gnificant portion of the new leading-node capacity. Domestic capacity and process technology development are strongly linked, and it is critical that incentives prioritize projects that can con-tribute on both fronts. 34. Estimates based on the 6% to 10% forecast range of long-term annual growth in

126、advanced logic sales from industry analysts as of June 2021, assuming that almost all advanced logic manufacturing capacity in 2030 will be at 3 nm or below35. SEMI World Fab Database, December 202036. US White House, Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing, and Fosteri

127、ng Broad-Based Growth, 100-Day Reviews under Executive Order 14017, June 2021Exhibit 4Expected demand growth provides a market opportunity this decade: at least 45 new 35 kwpm leading-node fabs must be built globally201920304221,000-1,200 MemoryDAOS2Mature logic Advanced logic1 CAGR 8-10% 7-8% 10-13

128、% 7-8% 6-10%Global semiconductor sales forecast $ billionTOTALGlobal leading-node capacity # of equivalent 12” fabs of 35 kwpm to meet demand growth10 and 14/16 nm 10 nm201920302245-656-10% CAGR166 Net incremental capacity to meet expected growth in demand for advanced logic Upgrade of current capac

129、ity in 5-14 nm nodes to new leading nodes = 2 nm introduced in 2025 and beyondSources: BCG analysis based on data from Gartner, IBS, SEMI, IC Knowledge 1. Includes CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, Application Processors, MPUs, mobile basebands and 40% of ASICs 2. Discrete, Analog, Optoelectronics and Sen-sors/MEM

130、SBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 15ConclusionGiven how critical semiconductors are for economic competitiveness and national security, it makes perfect sense that reestablishing leadership in advanced logic technolgy is considered a national priority for the US. Funding and subsequent deployment of CHIPS Ac

131、t incen-tives, as well as completion of recently announced plans by Intel, TSMC, and Samsung to build leading-node fabs in the US, are necessary, and without qualification, positive first steps on that journey.However, if the goal is to fully secure US technology leader-ship, provide the US with str

132、ategic advantage in critical technology fields, and reinforce the USs strategic control over access to semiconductor technology, the US will need to enable US-based control of leading-node process tech-nology, additional manufacturing capacity, and comple-mentary advanced packaging technology/capaci

133、ty.In our next report, we will work to define what potential US leadership ambition could look like, including specific technology milestones, an evaluation of 12 key success factors, and the joint investments required by the US government and private sector.16 ESTABLISHING LEADERSHIP IN ADVANCED LO

134、GIC TECHNOLOGY16AcknowledgmentThis report would not have been possible without the contributions of our BCG colleagues Jesus Guardado, Sonali Chopra, Zainab Lasisi, Sohini Kar, and Yeonsoo Lee.For Further ContactIf you would like to discuss this report, please contact the authors. Raj Varadarajan is

135、 a managing director and senior part-ner in the firms Dallas office and a core leader in BCGs Technology practice. You may contact him by email at . Ramiro Palma is a managing director and partner in the firms Austin office, with a focus on the semiconductor industry. You may contact him by email at

136、 . Antonio Varas was a managing director and senior part-ner BCGs Silicon Valley office and global co-lead of the semiconductor practice until September 2021. About the AuthorsBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture

137、their greatest opportunities. BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. Today, we help clients with total transformationinspiring complex change, enabling organizations to grow, building competitive advantage, and driving bottom-line impact.To succeed, organizations must

138、blend digital and human capabilities. Our diverse, global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives to spark change. BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting along with technology and design, corporate and digital venturesand business pur

139、pose. We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization, generating results that allow our clients to thrive.Uciam volora ditatur? Axim voloreribus moluptati autet hario qui a nust faciis reperro vitatia dipsandelia sit laborum, quassitio.

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