1、高盛全球投资研究 2022市场展望：“不适”的上行空间；离岸市场重回超配2022市场展望：“不适”的上行空间；离岸市场重回超配 高盛中国市场策略高盛中国市场策略 2021年11月 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 2Global Investment Research 2022年核心展望2022年核心展望 Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investm

2、ent Research 六张图六张图概括2022年中国股票市场主要观点 4Global Investment Research 宏观周期宏观周期：我们的经济研究团队预计2022年中国GDP增长 4.8%,这是危机年份之外的历史最低增速 Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 201920202021F2022F GDP% yoy6.02.37.84.8 Domestic Demandpp5.21.76.84.9 Consumption% yoy6.2-0.98.36.7 Household Consumption% yoy6.4-1.

3、711.07.0 Gross Capital Formation% yoy4.05.35.32.8 Net Exportspp0.70.71.1-0.1 Exports of Goods (nominal USD)% yoy0.53.62812 Imports of Goods (nominal USD)% yoy-2.7-0.63214 Inflation CPI% yoy2.92.50.72.7 Core CPI% yoy1.70.70.91.8 PPI% yoy-0.5-1.87.54.5 Other Current Account% GDP0.71.91.71.6 USDCNY (eo

4、p)level6.966.536.356.20 OMO 7-Day Repo Rate%2.502.202.202.20 TSF Stock Growth (eop)%10.713.310.510.5 Augmented Fiscal Deficit% GDP11.816.511.012.0 5Global Investment Research 宏观周期宏观周期：房地产市场构成显著阻力，但是增长动能将于 2021年四季度开始改善 Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6.0 5.5 5.0 5.0

5、4.5 0 2 4 6 8 10 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 GDP growth Real GDP (yoy) Real GDP (qoq, saar) Forecast 6Global Investment Research 盈利周期盈利周期：由于利润率假设较为保守，我们的2022年盈利 增长预期低于市场一致预期 Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research GSe: 7% GSe

6、: 12% Cons: 14% Cons: 14% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E MSCI China earnings growth (% yoy, in HKD terms) GSe: 9.6% GSe: 9.5% GSe: 9.8% GSe: 18% GSe: 9% GSe: 9% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2007

7、 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E MXCN Net Margin MXCN Sales growth Sales growth (% yoy)Net margin (%) 7Global Investment Research 盈利周期盈利周期：房地产市场放缓的程度是我们盈利预测面临的主 要风险因素 Source: FactSet, CEIC, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 65 70 75 80

8、85 90 95 100 105 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 MXCN Property-centric ex. Energy Internet Non property-centric/internet +2% (11%) -3% (29%) -5%(14%) -34% (28%) MXCN EPS Revision (Average of 2021/22 EPS) (CNY) Note: Numbers in brackets represent 2021-23E

9、EPS CAGR on consensus est. -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 2022E earnings impact from property sector slowdown Financing Property construction Related consumption Asset allocation Macro impacts on other sectors New starts: -15% Completion: +10% Sales volume: -5% ASP: -5%

10、 Land sales: -15% FCI: +35bp New starts: -22.5% Completion: 0% Sales volume: -7.5% ASP: -7.5% Land sales: -22.5% FCI: +70bp New starts: -30% Completion: -10% Sales volume: -10% ASP: -10% Land sales: -30% FCI: +140bp -10% -17% -28% -6% GS 2022E EPSg: 7% 2022E EPSg without property impact: +13% 8Globa

11、l Investment Research 盈利周期盈利周期：我们看好半导体、互联网零售以及传媒娱乐行业， 但对房地产相关行业更加保守 Source: FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research MXCN 2022 Earnings Growth Forecasts (HKD) Banks27%8%5%-5% Insurance/Other Fin.11%17%11%-9% Real Estate8%11%-20%-31% Capital Goods5%12%6%-10% Energy3%-5%-15%-9% Utilitie

12、s3%13%10%-8% Chemicals/Other Mat.2%9%-13%-24% Transportation2%-14%-28%-26% Metals and indicates other factors. 21Global Investment Research 仓位/资金流周期仓位/资金流周期：全球共同基金对中国股票的配置接近 低谷 Source: EPFR, MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research -600 -550 -500 -450 -400 -350 -300 -250 Jan-11 Jan-12

13、 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 bp China allocations in active funds globally (OW/UW) 2nd tranche of China ADR inclusion 1st tranche of China ADR inclusion Avg. -410 As of Sep 30, 2021 (includes GEM, AEJ, Global Valuation items are estimates by GS equity analysts, exc

14、ept for I/B/E/S consensus. Current CNRG = 77 as of Nov 5, 2021; upside calculated based on past 52-week absolute return sensitivity to CNRG. 投资标的(2)投资标的(2)：在“失宠”的互联网行业寻找增长机会 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 15 20 25 30 35 40 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 China

15、 Internet (Offshore) Forward 12M P/E Forward P/E (X) 25.7X (-1.2s.d.) Forward PEG (X) 0.9X (-0.6s.d.) Forward 12M PEG RHS 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Total Listed Mkt Cap for Chinese Internet/Tech (USD tn) Feb 17: 2.

16、99tn Nov 12: 1.91tn 1.82tn Note: including all stocks. excluding stocks listed after Feb 17. Jul 1: 2.42tn 27Global Investment Research 投资标的(3)投资标的(3)：行业策略：相对价值而言，更偏好成长性机会 Source: MSCI, FactSet, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Allocation MXCN industry groups Weight in MXCN Past 1M per

17、f 21-23E EPS CAGR 22E P/E (X) 22E P/B (X) 22E PEG Autos6.912.6%34%31.63.11.3 Consumer Durables2.97.6%21%25.85.81.4 Media17.7-1.7%22%23.33.11.1 Retailing21.8-3.5%32%25.53.40.7 Semis1.68.2%24%31.75.31.2 Capital Goods3.44.5%11%9.11.10.9 Consumer Svcs2.3-9.9%65%23.11.90.6 Div Financials1.9-4.4%11%7.70.8

18、0.7 Energy1.4-11.9%-4%6.20.6- Food Bev4.9-1.0%22%25.45.41.2 HC Equip & Svcs1.2-13.1%19%22.02.41.1 Insurance3.3-5.7%14%5.40.80.5 Pharma Biotech6.0-4.8%36%58.55.61.5 Tech Hardware3.8-0.7%14%14.82.71.1 Transportation1.5-6.5%-13%10.11.2- Utilities2.3-2.2%11%10.81.31.1 Banks8.3-3.0%7%4.20.50.7 Materials3

19、.0-7.1%8%8.71.41.7 Real Estate3.8-4.3%10%4.80.70.5 Telecom0.2-2.1%15%16.50.81.2 Overweight Marketweight Underweight 28Global Investment Research 什么可能出错什么可能出错？中国房地产：60万亿美元的困局 Source: Wind, Haver Analytics, World Input-Output Database (2015), MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Sce

20、nario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Impact of property sector slowdown on China GDP level in 2022 Direct effects Indirect effects Financial conditions tightening Percent point Percent point New starts: -15% Completion: +10% Sa

21、les volume: -5% ASP: -5% Land sales: -15% FCI: +35bp New starts: -22.5% Completion: 0% Sales volume: -7.5% ASP: -7.5% Land sales: -22.5% FCI: +70bp New starts: -30% Completion: -10% Sales volume: -10% ASP: -10% Land sales: -30% FCI: +140bp 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 J

22、un-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 MXCN 12m fPE (x) 14.0 x (4.2%) 12.0 x (3.0%) 11.0 x (1.5%) 14.5x (GDP=4.8%) Note: Numbers in bracket indicate 2022E real GDP growth assumptions. 12.7x 29Global Investment Research 什么可能出错什么可能出错？中国（房地产）债市：仍在探底 Source: F

23、actSet, MSCI, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3.2 6.9 3.6 1.2 5.9 5.1 3.0 4.0 7.7 4.0 4.8 3.6 2.5 3.6 1.5 1.3 5.9 1.0 5.2 5.0 0.9 4.6 4.8 3.2 2.4 4.3 2.1 1.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Offsh

24、ore Onshore China property developer maturity schedule until 2022 (USD bn) -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Avg cross-asset 3M rolling correlation with MXCN When MXCN underperforms, Property credit/China So

25、v spread widens, MXWD/Copper underperforms, CNY depreciates 2011 property concerns 2015 FX reform 2018 trade tension 30Global Investment Research 什么可能出错什么可能出错？美国货币政策正常化：此次有更多缓冲 Source: FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 -12M-6M06M12M 32015A

26、verage MSCI China Index Fed Hike (1999, 2004, 2015) Tapering (2013) 31Global Investment Research 什么可能出错什么可能出错？中美关系(GSSRUSCN)：关注尾部风险 Source: Wind, FactSet, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan-1

27、8 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Tension barometers by category Higher tension Technology: (93%) Trade: (13%) Capital Markets: (99%) Geopolitics: (94%) 32Global Investment Resea

28、rch 什么可能出错什么可能出错？通货膨胀与滞胀：对股市构成的风险可控 Source: FactSet, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Materials Cap Goods Auto Energy Tech HW Utilities Banks MSCI China Pharma Transport Div Fina Media & Enter Insurance Cons Svcs Retailing Food Bev Dur & Apparel

29、 Telecom Real Estate MXCN sector return correlation with PPI - CPI Note: Monthly data since 2016. Sector return: qoq avg. CPI/PPI: yoy 3mma. 33Global Investment Research 附录：CSI300指数估值预期及目标点位 Source: FactSet, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 CSI300 12m fPE (x) 13.5x CSI300 15.0 x (+1.4sd) 2022E GS forecasts Nominal GDP 7D repo Domestic policy Northbound flows 34Global Investment Research 附录：股票互联互通资金流预测分项 Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research