1、 2021 12 30 % 1M 3M 12M 1.08 17.52 18.47 1.87 -1.37 -6.33 2020A 2021E 2022E EPS PE EPS PE EPS PE 0.28 129.96 0.36 101.08 0.41 88.76 0.75 91.44 1.05 65.31 1.37 50.06 1.29 63.38 1.61 50.78 2.10 38.93 0.43 146.70 0.56 112.64 0.73 86.41 0.28 65.32 0.36 50.81 0.46 39.76 0.37 134.62 0.83 60.01 1.08 46.12

2、0.42 135.36 0.63 90.24 0.90 63.17 Wind 2021飬滮 2022İ顣1滻滯20塱佫2 1滮 202722 2022飺1-2硢3 仯 -2- 1 2021 . 5 1.1 . 5 1.2 棺 2011 . 7 1.3 . 8 1.3.1 . 8 1.3.2 2021 . 10 1.3.3 . 11 1.3.4 . 11 1.3.5 /+/. 12 2 2022 . 13 2.1 . 13 2.1.1 . 13 2.1.2 潨. 15 2.1.3 . 21 2.2 . 24 2.2.1 . 25 2.2.2 洫 . 25 3 . 28 3.1 . 28 3.2

3、. 29 3.3 . 29 3.4 . 30 3.5 . 31 3.6 . 31 3.7 . 31 4 . 32 12021 1 1 12 28 SW . 5 2 . 6 32021 . 6 42021 1 1 12 28 . 6 52021 1 1 12 28 . 7 62021 1 1 12 28 . 7 7 PETTM . 7 8 PETTM . 7 9 2021.12.28 PETTM . 8 10 . 9 11 GDP . 10 12 . 10 132017 . 10 142017 . 10 oPoQnPtNmQzRpNqMqRtPsPaQ8Q7NoMmMtRpNfQqQrQjMqQ

4、nR6MoPmMxNmMvNxNnPmQ -3- 15 2021Q3 .11 16 2021Q3 .11 172021Q3 .11 182017 . 12 19 . 12 202017 . 12 212017 . 12 22/+/ . 12 23 . 14 24 . 14 25 . 14 26 . 15 27 . 15 28 . 16 29J-20 . 17 30J-16 . 17 31 . 18 32-20 . 18 33-10 . 20 34-20 . 20 35-6. 21 36 . 21 37 . 21 38 . 22 39 . 22 40 . 24 41 . 25 42 . 27 4

5、3 . 27 44 . 28 45 . 28 1 . 8 2. 13 3. 14 4 . 15 5. 16 6塱 . 17 720222027 . 18 820222027 . 19 9. 19 1020222027 . 20 11. 22 12 . 23 13 . 23 -4- 14 . 24 15 . 24 16 . 26 17 . 26 -5- 1 2021 1.1 2021 2020 塱 1973.91 10.20% 20.49% 2021 1.35 6.8% 1378.28 棬塱顰塱顣滮 12021 1 1 12 28SW Wind 2021 1 1 12 28 6.62%300WI

6、ND A 2.10pct11.52pct-5.59pct -1.95pct 28 12 2021 11 6 16.40% -20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12()() -6- 2 32021 Wind Wind 42021 1 1 12 28 Wind 9.44% 5.40% 5.04% 4.05% 0%20% 25 100% 2 50%10

7、0% 5 20%50% 17 2021 -20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%------12() -7- 52021 1 112 28 62021 1 112 28 Wind Wind 1.2 棺2011 2021 12 28 () PETTM 68.76 2011 48.40% 2011 23.80% 2011 43.40% 2011 35.20% 2011 33.60% 7 PETTM 8PETTM Wind Wi

8、nd 棬PETTM100X2530.49%纽PE 50X-100X 39 47.56%硢PE 30X-50X0X-30X 14 4 17.07% 4.88%50X-100X 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%051015202530-50% -20%0 20%50% 100% 0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00% PE(TTM) -8- 92021.12.28 PETTM Wind 1.3 1.3.1 2020 10 2027 棬廯2020 11 滮鷢 2027 涨 2021 11 1 淶 1 2019 7 顣棻

9、 2035档 2020 11 滮鷢 2027 20350.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%05540450X-30X 30X-50X 50X-100X 100X -9- 2020 12 2021 1 2021 1 2021 8 2021 11 涨淶 硢 10 硢 壬2020GPD70% 2021 13553.43 6.8% GDP 2020 1.25% 3.59% 3.32% -10- 11 GDP 12 1.3.2 2021 2021 塱2021 鹲 3101.74 14.35%

10、 184.56 7.74% 151.34 75.42% 2021 1452.85 46.84% 100.47 54.43% 941.74 30.36% 9.67 5.24% 347.25 11.20% 33.74 18.28% 359.90 11.60% 40.68 22.04% 20.94% 44.05% 20.41% 47.37% 132017 142017 Wind Wind 098355200920132017GDP%GDP%02468400060008000400016000

11、2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 %-20246800250030003500400045002017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3( %-50050002017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 % -11- 152021Q3 162021Q3 Wind Wind 1.3.3 塱仯20%30% 40%50% 1857.79 1003.47 +117.46% 756.03 644.06 +575.21% 906.61

12、292.66 +47.67% 149.10 61.85 +70.89% 46.05 4.9 +11.91% 346.85 530.79 172021Q3 Wind 1.3.4 020040060080001600 ( (020040060080000SW 2021Q3 2020Q3 -12- 182017 19 Wind 202017 212017 Wind Wind 1.3.5 /+/ /+/ 2021Q3 / 2020Q3 11.12%2021Q3+/ 2020Q3 81.38% 22/+/ Wind 05101520201

13、7 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3% %0552017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 -4-2024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 00.050.10.150.20.252020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3/ +/ -13- 2 2022 2022İ顣 202220277153.41192.2 3304 550.7 2050 342 20262035 2520 252 20212027 4927 704 2 20222027 7153.4 1192.2 20222027 205

14、0 342 20222027 3304 550.7 20262035 2520 252 XXXX 20212027 4927 704 World Air Forces 2021 2.1 滻棬20 2.1.1 202113795.44 2020 6.8%2019 2010 2017 2017 41.1% 13.44%2015 2017 41% -14- 23 24 亽1/32021 41% 2021 1883.5 3 2010 1859.31 34.9% 1700.47 31.9% 1773.59 33.2% 5333.37 2011 2065.06 34.3% 1899.43 31.5% 20

15、63.42 34.2% 6027.91 2012 1955.72 29.2% 2329.94 34.8% 2406.26 36.0% 6691.92 2013 2002.31 27.0% 2699.71 36.4% 2708.60 36.6% 7410.62 2014 2372.34 28.6% 2679.82 32.3% 3237.38 39.1% 8289.54 2015 2818.63 31.0% 2615.38 28.8% 3653.83 40.2% 9087.84 2016 3060.01 31.3% 2669.94 27.4% 4035.89 41.3% 9765.84 2017

16、3210.52 30.8% 2933.5 28.1% 4288.35 41.1% 10432.37 8 31 13 衰2035 25 硢 -15- 2.1.2 潨 3 4 沿 鱨 F-22 MIG-25 A-10 B-52 SU-24 EA-18G F-18 U-2 -20 -8 -5 -6 -7 -16D -15 -9JB P-8 E-3 -76 KC-10A T-X -17 200 -500 -20 -6 L-15 CK-1 World Air Forces 2025% 4.1 26 27 World Air Forces 2021 World Air Forces

17、2021 -16- 1571 902 264 115 3 405 2717 5434 941 749 625 2766 5 / 2014 2860 13902 20.6% 2015 2942 13717 21.4% 2016 2955 13764 21.5% 2017 3036 13407 22.6% 2018 3187 13398 23.8% 2019 3210 13266 24.2% 2020 3260 13232 24.6% World Air Forces 2021 28 World Air Forces 2021 塣塱俪 J-20Y-20 20 20 塱 004

18、00050006000 -17- 6塱 J-10 20 J-15 XXX J-16 XXX J-20 -10 FC-31 -20 Y-20 K-8 -6K L-15 J-20J-16J-16D 48%58% 1146 J-7J-8 51% J-11J-10 48% J-20 1% F-22 144:0 F-15 F-16F-35 15:1 J-20J-16J-16D 29J-20 30J-16 麣 棬2035 2027 7153.4 1192.2 -18- 720222027 F-16 789 2.5 -10 260 529 2.5 1322.5 7153.4 F-15 573 5.5 -11

19、/J16 315 258 5.5 1419 EA18G 153 6.5 -16D / 140 6.5 910 F-22/F-35A 178/196 9.7/6.5 -20 19 355 8.1 2875.5 F-35C / 6.5 FC-31 0 72 6.5 468 F/A-18 / 4.4 -15 24 36 4.4 158.4 World Air Forces 2021 A-10-5-7-16 -20 -20 941 8000 / 370 6000 / 5000 -20 -20 -20 -8-9 棬-20 8% 31 32-20 -19- 棬 20222027 50% 3304 550.

20、7 820222027 C-17/C-5M 274 -20/-76 41 96 8 768 3304 C-130/C-40 400 -8/-9 127 73 2 146 MC-130/KC-135 484 -78/20 3 239 10 2390 World Air Forces 2021 -10 10 -20 幥幥淢棬 075152 80 9 001003 3*12=36 075 8 8*28=224 071 8 8*6=48 055 8 8*2=16 054A 30 30 056A 72 72 052D 26 26 World Air Forces 2021 -20 20 10 -10 2

21、012 -10 幥 -20- 33-10 34-20 151500World Air Forces 923 600 棬 200 棬World Air Forces 65 350 2027 20222027 600 200 350 1150 350 600 200 20222027 2050 342 1020222027 Z-10Z-19 350 1 350 2050 Z-20Z-8 600 1150 2 1200 Z-9CZ-20 200 2.5 500 World Air Forces 2021 -6K -6 -16 -6 -6K-6N -6K 3500 6 2000 CJ-10A亽-6 B

22、-52B-2B-1 -95-160 -6 涼 B-2-6 -21- 35-6 36 棬塱俪2035 B-2/B-2150%352520 252 2.1.3 37 Wind 鶼 -22- 11 鶼 Wind 硢 硢 38 39 10%15% 20% 30%40% 35%豸 50% -23- 12 / 漰 豸 Wind carbon fiber CF 95% F-18SU-27 11%F-35 35%B-250% 13 1986 30% 50% JAS-39 1988 30% F-22 1990 25% 1994 40% F-35 2006 35% B-2 1989 50%

23、2020 2019 10 10.69 2020 2025 20 2030 40 -24- 40 2020桢 14 / ZT7 Wind 2.2 顱硢 20212027 4927 704 15 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 3586 3945 4339 4773 5250 5775 6353 / 326 359 394 434 477 525 578 3093 X2 652 718 788 868 954 1050 1156 6186 932 932 932 932 932 932 932 6524 2173 2173 3757 3823 3893 397

24、3 4059 23851 217.3 217.3 375.7 382.3 389.3 397.3 405.9 2385.1 316.8 330 344 360 377.2 396.4 417.6 2542 533.9 546.9 719.6 741.9 766.7 793.6 823.4 4927.1 Wind 106.920040005003003504004502008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020* 2022* 2024* 2026* 2028* 2030* -25- 2.2.1 12000 22017 2020 3000 3 2021

25、2023 2.2.2 洫 41 Wind A -26- 漼 AES100-16 16 / XX-10 100% XX-10 100% 纽 100% 100% 100% 100% 豸 100% 豸 100% 51% Wind 20212023 洫 17 - 2013 2023 61% -XX 2019 2023 39% -XX 2019 2024 45% - 2019 2021 82% -9302 2019 2022 85% -XX 2019 2023 63% -XX 2019 2023 48% -XX 2019 2031 10% -XX 2019 2021 98.14% -裨 2019 202

26、1 91.52% - 2019 2021 90.65% -XX () 2019 2022 75.39% -XX 2019 2022 69.09% -27- -XX 2019 2024 45.20% - 2019 2024 17.51% -XX 2019 2021 94.80% -XX 2020 2023 52% -XX 2019 2023 47% 桢 7%24% 2020 20212023 170 70%貽 2021 30%50% 3 600 42 43 Wind -28- 44 45 35% 600 縧纽 30% 20%30% 50%60%30% 20122019 97.54 129 4.0

27、7%2019 129 6.06%2024 173 3 3.1 2021 249.17 31.76% 14.54 25.24% 13.77 81.78% 5.53% 5.56% 5%74.11 -29- 989.09 3.85 4.36 242.29 3463% 145.52 65.68 13.41 311.62 558.96% 20212023 20.5 26.9 34.1EPS 1.05 1.37 1.74 A鶼2022 PE 66 蹫 2022 5868 PE 79.4693.16 3.2 C919/ARJ21/AG600 A320/ 737 2021 231.08 2.03% 6.08

28、0.22% 5.36 28.42% 6.67%徻 2.63% 38.15 3.51 +10.13% 178.69 26.4 +17.34%239.76 37.33 +18.44% 3304 550.7 2025 252 202120239.9611.3014.98EPS 0.36 0.41 0.54 蹫2022 110120 PE 45.1049.20 3.3 -30- 2021141.94 16.47% 6.19 26.21% 6.10 26.98% 48.02 6.47% 2.36 23.28% 11.94% 0.89pct徻 4.29% 0.33pct幥 1150 342 Z-20Z-1

29、0AC352 202120239.4812.3715.31EPS 1.61 2.10 2.60 蹫2022 4046 PE 84.0096.60 蹫 3.4 跢 183.43 18.59% 7.83 23.58% 6.67 25.82% Q3 42.91% Q3 82.59 +31.64%+30.23% 3.22 +42.91%-24.59% 2.81 +26.08%-21.07%Q3 10.66%-3.34pct-8.17pctQ3 4.11%+0.36pct-2.81pct Q3 Q1Q2Q3 1:2:3Q4 Q4 20212023 14.88 19.43 23.45EPS 0.56 0.

30、73 0.88 塱亽档蹫 2022 8898 PE 64.2471.54 -31- 3.5 2021 115.58 39.19% 8.88 42.42% 17.36 446.03% 75.40% 45.97% 47.60% 20212023 13.94 17.89 21.46 EPS 0.36 0.46 0.55 蹫 2022 3844 PE 17.48 20.24 3.6 2021 65.22 24.36% 6.09 126.72% 20.90 5.5% 3.38 127.76% Q3 32.64%+9.06pct+2.98pct Q3 19.06%+10.16pct+10.58pct 3

31、7.49 0.46 7.03 31.86 30.73% 4.85 22.78 10.35 422.73%塱 2021-2023 8.74 11.39 14.15EPS 0.83 1.08 1.35 佫蹫 2022 45-52 PE 48.656.2 3.7 -32- 80%2021 14.25 33.39% 2.53 94.75%2.2973.81%30.38%-4.82pct 19.20%+4.67pct 9.65 +115.45% 4.46 +58.37% 0.83 +50.13% 9.12+54.16%档 20212023 3.054.406.26EPS 0.630.901.29 棬 80%蹫 2022 5868 PE 52.2061.20 4 仯