1、 http:/ 1/37 Table_main 20211231 2022 + 1/2027/2021塱 2飬 3 4硢20222021 + 1 5 / 3-4%6-8%10% 2 3 12022档 230磺鶼硢 飺 /塱20%/ 1鶼 2硢 3 2022鶼 12 table_invest table_page http:/ 2/37 1. . 5 1.1. +飬+ . 5 1.2. + . 5 1.3. . 5 1.4. 2022飺 . 6 2. . 8 2.1. . 8 2.2. . 9 2.3. 塱 . 11 2.4. . 12 3. . 15 3.1. . 15 3.2. . 15 3

2、.3. . 16 4. 2022 . 18 4.1. . 18 4.2. . 20 4.3. + . 22 4.4. . 24 4.5. . 26 5. 2022鶼 . 30 5.1. . 30 5.2. A . 30 5.3. . 31 5.4. 鶼+ . 32 5.5. . 32 5.6. . 33 5.7. . 34 5.8. . 34 5.9. . 35 5.10. 溣 . 36 . 36 nMqOpNsMsOuMmOtPnMnRmR9PbPbRoMpPnPpNiNmMqRfQqQmQbRoPqQNZnNrPuOsPqQ table_page http:/ 3/37 12022 . 5

3、 22020GDP70%36 . 8 357.4% . 9 4202032% . 10 52010-2020/GDP . 10 62010-2020/ . 10 720102017 . 10 8/鶼() . 11 9/鶼125% . 11 10/鶼() . 12 11/鶼105% . 12 12 17 . 12 13. 15 1485% . 18 15 . 18 1629% . 18 17 . 19 18 . 19 19/ . 19 20 . 19 21 . 21 22 . 21 23 . 22 24: . 23 25: . 23 26 . 24 27 . 25 28 . 25 292010-

4、202011% . 26 30MLCC% . 26 31. 27 3220%-25% . 27 33 . 28 34/ . 28 35 . 28 362021Q3231(+2%) . 30 372021Q36.1 . 30 382021Q3142(+16%) . 31 392021Q36.2(+26%) . 31 402021Q3183(+19%) . 31 412021Q37.8(+24%) . 31 table_page http:/ 4/37 42鶼2021Q343(+43%) . 32 43鶼2021Q30.7(+429%) . 32 442021Q3249(+3

5、2%) . 33 452021Q314.5(+25%) . 33 462021Q381(+11%) . 33 472021Q35.2(+11%) . 33 482021Q338(+63%) . 34 492021Q314.6(+113%) . 34 502021Q321(38%) . 35 512021Q35.4(+98%) . 35 522021Q3382(+0%) . 35 532021Q34.1(+139%) . 35 542021Q3382(+0%) . 36 552021Q34.1(+139%) . 36 130. 6 2 . 7 3 . 9 4 . 13 5 . 14 6塱塱 .

6、15 7 . 16 8 . 16 93.6 . 19 10 . 22 11 . 23 12 . 24 13裬 . 25 14 . 26 15209070% . 27 16 . 27 17 . 29 table_page http:/ 5/37 1. 1.1. +飬+ 1/2027/2021塱 2飬 3 4硢20222021 12022 Wind 1.2. + 15/3-4%6-8%10% 2 3 1.3. 2022档 30 磺鶼硢 table_page http:/ 6/37 130 2017 523 2019 523 2018 523 A 2019 523 2019 523 2020 523

7、 2015 413 2018 413 2021 523 2017 523 2020 623 2014 523 2017 523 2017 523 2020 623 2020 523 2016 523 2019 523 2012 1023 2014 1023 2016 1023 2018 1023 2015 523 2016 523 2019 523 2020 523 2021 523 2018 523 2019 523 2019 623 2020 523 Wind 1.4. 2022飺 /塱20%/ 1鶼 table_page http:/ 7/37 2硢 3 2022鶼 2 EPS PE R

8、OE 2020 2020A 2021E 2022E 2020PE 2021PE 2022PE 000768 1008 0.28 0.36 0.46 130 101 79 5% 36.39 600893 1681 0.43 0.56 0.71 147 113 89 4% 63.08 600316 鶼 281 0.18 0.30 0.55 212 131 71 3% 39.23 600760 1345 0.75 1.00 1.27 91 69 54 16% 68.58 600038 482 1.29 1.63 2.11 64 50 39 9% 81.76 600967 208 1.29 1.63

9、2.11 10 7 6 7% 12.22 600150 1098 0.07 0.14 0.35 351 171 70 1% 24.55 002651 134 0.19 0.31 0.51 68 42 26 8% 13.01 605123 152 1.85 2.44 3.39 76 58 41 15% 140.50 688239 98 0.69 0.91 1.28 102 77 55 14% 70.15 600765 524 0.37 0.71 0.99 135 70 50 5% 49.81 002013 711 0.29 0.37 0.48 63 50 38 9% 18.29 002414 5

10、69 0.63 0.59 0.76 39 41 32 25% 24.23 002214 118 0.86 0.74 1.03 23 27 19 30% 19.73 688333 168 1.08 0.57 2.22 193 367 94 8% 208.34 300775 241 0.41 0.88 1.29 119 55 38 11% 48.69 688510 75 0.31 0.24 0.43 94 123 67 9% 29.13 603308 152 0.41 0.38 0.59 54 59 38 5% 22.32 600399 493 0.28 0.43 0.58 89 58 43 12

11、% 25.01 600764 295 1.07 1.27 1.65 39 33 25 14% 41.45 300855 141 0.64 0.89 1.18 110 80 60 14% 70.58 300034 276 0.44 0.67 0.94 129 85 61 9% 56.85 688122 424 0.84 1.50 1.95 114 64 49 14% 96.00 600862 486 0.31 0.51 0.71 113 68 49 10% 34.91 000738 389 0.32 0.38 0.50 92 79 59 6% 29.58 600372 436 0.35 0.43

12、 0.55 65 53 41 7% 22.60 603678 348 1.35 2.22 2.96 56 34 26 17% 75.74 000733 652 1.18 2.43 3.40 107 52 37 11% 125.75 002049 1418 1.33 2.89 4.25 176 81 55 18% 233.64 688636 71 2.28 2.41 3.48 61 58 40 26% 140.15 20211231 Wind table_page http:/ 8/37 2. 2.1. 壬2020GDP70%336 22020GDP70%36 塱滮2035潨 羭塢塢 棬 110

13、 帴 table_page http:/ 9/37 3 2017 潨 廯 2021 塱滮 2027; 2021 İ 潨 塰 2.2. 57.4%20211.366.8%GDP 2.7% 357.4% Wind 2020 252332%20211.36740029% table_page http:/ 10/37 4202032% SIPRI GDP 52010-2020/GDP 62010-2020/ SIPRI SIPRI 201% 720102017 飬 table_page http:/ 11/37 GDP緶 塱GDP 2.3. 塱 2021 鶼2021230202

14、1125%3122021125%鶼682021159% 塱仯 8/鶼() 9/鶼125% Wind Wind 2021/鶼2422021105%鶼512021118% 乩塱 table_page http:/ 12/37 10/鶼() 11/鶼105% Wind Wind 2.4. 20151+N20202020-2022 12 17 2015 table_page http:/ 13/37 4 1 2 / / / 3 / / / 4 / ., 5 / / / 6 / 齨 / 7 / 棬 +35% table_page http:/ 14/37 棬30 5 201

15、7 523 2019 523 2018 523 A 2019 523 2019 523 2020 523 2015 413 2018 413 2021 523 2017 523 2020 623 2014 523 2017 523 2017 523 2020 623 2020 523 2016 523 2019 523 2012 1023 2014 1023 2016 1023 2018 1023 2015 523 2016 523 2019 523 2020 523 2021 523 2018 523 2019 523 2019 623 2020 523 Wind 20212022磺鶼硢 t

16、able_page http:/ 15/37 3. 3.1. 塱塱 6塱塱 16 2013 2016 20 2011 2017 20 2013 2016 20 2013 2019 10L15 2006 2008 13 3.2. table_page http:/ 16/37 7 / 1 2 / 1 2 1 2 桢 1 2 3.3. =+ 8 1 2/ 3塱İ 棺 1 2 table_page http:/ 17/37 3 4塱 5%910%68%10% / table_page http:/ 18/37 4. 2022 4.1. 塱滮 85%;98%/29% 1485% 15 Global F

17、irePower Global FirePower 1629% Global FirePowerWorld Air Forces 2021 / table_page http:/ 19/37 17 18 World Air Forces 2021 World Air Forces 2021 19/ 20 World Air Forces 2021 World Air Forces 2021 3.6塱临20% 93.6 + 10 260 F-16 789 529 2.5 1323 11/16 315 F-15 573 258 5.5 1419 15 45 F/A-18 640 595 4.4 2

18、618 0 A-10 286 286 0.7 200 20 19 F-22 178 159 7.3 9191 F-35 1634 1100 FC-31 0 F-35 633 633 5.0 3165 20 76 41 C-17 C-5M 274 233 10 2330 table_page http:/ 20/37 + 8 9 127 C-130 C-40A 400 273 2 546 () 0 B-2 B-21 252 252 20 5040 2000 9 E-3 KC-10 366 357 10 3570 500 89 P-8A MC-130 655 566 2 1132 20/10 54

19、5 MH/UH-60 4246 3701 1.4 5181 - 1450 - 10926 8942 - 35715 World Air Forces (2021) 衣 / 塱 20%/ 4.2. /亽 table_page http:/ 21/37 21 22 202158%28%17% 3.63.6塱临20% a)+/b table_page http:/ 22/37 / 鶼 10 2020 2021Q3 yoy 2020 2021Q3 yoy 600760 / 1456 273 249 32% 14.8 14.5 25% 000768 1027 335 231 2% 7.8 6.1 0%

20、600316 鶼 301 51 43 43% 1.3 0.7 429% 600038 420 197 142 16% 7.6 6.2 26% Wind 4.3. + 23 table_page http:/ 23/37 11 硢 640800 D-27-70 - D-27- 顰2035 赽2035 2021 203514,898 993 溽+ 24: 25: table_page http:/ 24/37 12 2020 2021Q3 yoy 2020 2021Q3 yoy 600893 1675 286 183 19% 11.5 7.8 24% 000738 385 35 30 25% 3.

21、7 4.0 20% 600391 73 27 23 48% -0.2 -0.5 18% 603308 豸豸豸 149 18 15 12% 2.0 1.5 15% 300855 125 5 5 27% 1.1 1.3 69% 688510 75 3 2 -4% 0.6 0.1 -72% 605123 145 10 12 63% 1.7 1.9 57% 688239 94 7 6 39% 0.7 0.9 86% 600399 491 63 56 18% 5.5 6.9 69% 300034 255 16 14 33% 2.0 2.5 95% 688122 404 21 21 38% 3.7 5.4

22、 98% 600456 310 43 46 44% 3.6 4.7 95% Wind 4.4. 廯廯軷 26 衣豸30%30%-40% table_page http:/ 25/37 70%衰20202050 13裬 2017 2018 簲 2019 2020 2021 塱滮濪档 豸+ 27 28 Wind Wind /1011%21% table_page http:/ 26/37 豸+ % 30MLCC% 硢 14 2020 2021Q3 yoy 2020 2021Q3 yoy 002025 358 42 37 22% 4.3 3.9 28%

23、 002179 1128 103 99 29% 14.4 16.2 48% 603678 MLCC 360 37 36 45% 6.1 7.8 84% 603267 MLCC 372 17 19 65% 4.9 6.6 105% 300726 344 14 15 64% 4.8 6.4 90% 000733 602 39 42 38% 6.1 9.6 167% 002049 1279 33 38 63% 8.1 14.6 113% 300474 GPU 585 7 8 74% 2.1 2.5 70% 688311 豸 86 4 2 36% 1.1 0.5 46% 002214 120 11 7

24、 -9% 3.9 2.5 -26% Wind 4.5. +塢弼 81 90%11%11%12%12%12%12%02040608016 2017 2018 2019 2020 yoy25735%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2002503003504004505005506002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 yoyCAGR= 11% CAGR= 21% table_page http:/ 27/37 31 3220%-25% 209070% 15209070% 1991 籩 256000

25、 20500 8% 1995 1026 708 69% 1998 895 645 72% 1999 23614 8265 35% 2003 29335 19948 68% 16 1000 1000-5000 5000-8000 8000 - 浼 乥 乥 浼 20 50 20%-25% 20%-25%壨15%-20%30%-40% table_page http:/ 28/37 33 /俹 34/ 35 飬 飬 20% 塱磬 1塱 220143磺 table_page http:/ 29/37 202.43.92.7 202162021 塱壬 17 2020 2021Q3

26、yoy 2020 2021Q3 yoy 600316 鶼 301 51 43 43% 1.3 0.7 429% 002683 206 64 58 35% 4.0 3.4 25% 002414 586 33 24 26% 10.0 9.2 15% 688002 348 16 12 12% 5.8 4.2 -9% 002977 62 2 3 90% 0.8 0.9 129% 301050 259 3 5 170% 1.2 1.8 136% 300395 219 9 9 48% 2.4 2.9 77% 002149 97 20 18 22% 0.8 1.0 184% Wind table_page

27、http:/ 30/37 5. 2022鶼 5.1. /ARJ21C919AG600 -20-6 2021-2023 9.7/12.0/15.0 EPS 0.4/0.4/0.5/PE104/84/67 5.2. A AC1212F 362021Q3231(+2%) 372021Q36.1 Wind Wind 24116 2612231079 3346834298 334842310814%8%19%8%2%4%2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0002015 2016 2017

28、2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy400 413471558 56977760814%3%14%18%2%-28%0%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%005006007008009002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy table_page http:/ 31/37 8910191-13AC 2021-2023 9.6/12.4/15.7 EPS 1.6/2.1/2.7/PE50/39/31 5.3. 2014/ 382021Q3142(+16%) 392021Q36.2(+26%) Wind W

29、ind 402021Q3183(+19%) 412021Q37.8(+24%) Wind Wind 12544 12522 12048 9655141941%0% -4%8%21%24%16%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy437 439 455532%0%4%12%15%29%26%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%005006007008002015 201

30、6 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy23480 22217 22555 23102 2523-12%-5%2% 2%9%14%19%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy1033891 9601064 10%-14%8%11%1%6%24%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02004006008001,0001,

31、2001,4002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy table_page http:/ 32/37 .8/18.4/23.1EPS0.6/0.7/0.9/PE114/91/73 5.4. 鶼+ 鶼顣CJ6K8L15 K86L15K8浼 660 浼 2021-2023 2.1/4.0/6.2 EPS 0.3/0.6/0.9/PE134/70/45 5.5. J11J16J15/FC31 42鶼2021Q343(+43%) 43鶼2021Q30.7(+429%) Wind Wind 281636802530 24184420506

32、94303-18%31%-31%-4%46%15%43%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy78367-21%-86%178%384%-42%60%429%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%02040608002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy table_page http:/ 33/37 A -1

33、5-16 2021-2023 19.6/24.9/32.3EPS1.00/1.27/1.65/PE69/54/42 5.6. 塢 442021Q3249(+32%) 452021Q314.5(+25%) Wind Wind 462021Q381(+11%) 472021Q35.2(+11%) Wind Wind 1697 115419459 201624917-33% -32%9%4%18% 15%32%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002015 2016 2017 2018

34、 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy-22128707 7438781480 1454-57%113%26%5%18%69%25%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%-6008001,0001,2001,4001,6002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy table_page http:/ 34/37 豣VT-4VT-5VN-1 2021-2023 7.6/9.1/10.9 EPS 0.45/0.54/0.64/PE27/23/19 5.7. THD89 SOGISC

35、CEAL6+幦羧 Wind 2021-2023 17.6/25.6/35.9 EPS2.9/4.2/5.9/PE81/55/39 5.8. NbSn壩 482021Q338(+63%) 492021Q314.6(+113%) Wind Wind 1250 83430 3270379015% 14%29%34%40%-5%63%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy335 336 280 348 406

36、806145710%0%-17%24% 17%99% 113%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy table_page http:/ 35/37 弼 Wind2021-2023 6.6/8.5/11.2EPS1.5/1.9/2.5/PE64/50/38 5.9. 豸 502021Q321(38%) 512021Q35.4(+98%) Wind Wind 522021Q3382(+0%) 532021Q34.1(+139%)

37、Wind Wind 887 978 9673 209126%10%-1%13%33%46%38%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy138 159 142 135 %15%-11% -5%17%134%98%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%005006002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Q3 yoy table_page http:/ 36/37 塣+ Wind2021-2023 6.4/15.6/24.3EPS0.14/0.35/0.54/PE172/70/45 5.10. 溣 硢 Wind2021-2023 9.1/11.8/15.1EPS1.27/1.65/2.13/PE32/25/20 12 542021Q3382(+0%) 552021Q34.1(+139%) Wind Wind