1、20211231 S0020222 2021İ20212021/12/31İ4.46%3009.662814+ 52.84%+24.97%+16.62%飬202220202020222020Q32021202壬20221硢硢rQsMtRtNrNxPmOqMrQmQmRbRbP7NtRrRpNsQkPqQpOjMmMnR9PrQnNNZoOvNuOrMzQ3 1 2021İ2 3 4 5 6 4 2021İ282021 2820212021/12/31İ4.46%3009.662814 + 52.8

2、4% +24.97%+16.62%+6.65%+5.88%-11.13% wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%豸 豸 300 -12%-6%0%6%12%18%24%30%36%42%48%54% 5 2021İ 2021İ 2021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q4İ-404812------12wind300 300-10%-6%-2%2%6%10%SW 3006 2021İ TOP 10 TOP 10 20

3、21İİ 2021PVC顣2021/12/28wind362.21%229.97%169.62%148.63%101.80%89.58%74.20%67.35%66.04%65.70%-67.52%-43.43%-28.51%-27.19%-23.11%-21.50%-19.72%-17.55%-17.50%-17.05%*STA7 2021İPETTM2/5/10 PE/Band 2021/12/28PETTM14.652822300PE PE60%550%29%0246800050006000700080009000100002020/122021/12021/220

4、21/32021/42021/52021/62021/72021/82021/92021/102021/112021/12 9.69X 11.85X14X 16.15X PE-TTMwind 2 5 1 0 2 5 1 0 8 6 . 3 6 56% 83% 90% 2 8 . 3 3 99% 95% 94% 6 9 . 0 5 68% 57% 52% 豸 2 6 . 6 3 26% 24% 33% 5 9 . 8 5 100% 93% 78% 2 2 . 5 9 28% 39% 19%豸 5 4 . 4 3 89% 96% 92% 1 9 . 9 3 2% 29% 15% 5 2 . 8 5

5、 6% 34% 43% 1 9 . 8 5 1% 6% 5% 5 0 . 9 7 100% 95% 76% 1 8 . 1 5 42% 53% 70% 4 6 . 0 3 57% 83% 91% 1 4 . 8 2 8% 4% 16% 3 7 . 7 9 47% 33% 33% 1 4 . 6 5 60% 50% 29% 3 5 . 8 2 13% 31% 20% 1 4 . 3 8 35% 15% 16% 3 4 . 4 2 11% 27% 25% 3 0 0 1 4 . 0 7 50% 68% 80% 3 3 . 0 5 99% 83% 73% 9 . 5 1 60% 28% 16% 3

6、1 . 6 5 82% 93% 96% 9 . 3 5 16% 32% 16% 2 9 . 9 5 25% 28% 15% 8 . 3 7 41% 17% 8% 2 9 . 0 6 2% 15% 11% 6 . 0 6 14% 7% 25%PE T T M P E T T M P E T T M PE T T M 8 wind2021İ İİ87 2021İ5888.72 14.66%755.48 13.84%+39.45%+39.15%+35.41%+230.90% + 147.63% +12.73%2021 20213351 473 340 79 1010 636 3234 339 251

7、 59 726 526 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%05000250030003500 2021Q1-Q3 2020Q1-Q3 %448 90 80 7 103 27 481 27 32 7 92 25 -10%30%70%110%150%190%230%00500600 2021Q1-Q3 2020Q1-Q3 %9 2021202220211-1149.415.10%2.620211-110.5%0.5wind5.10%-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%35%0.50%-32%-22%-12%-2%8%18%28%3

8、8% %10 0400080000000240002800032000360---------082021-10wind00400050006000700080009000100001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2021121520213.4297%20221.4620

9、22H1壬11 ,50%,30%,20%/ 20229 塱滮滮2021 202212 淿 -1195.976.3%18.289.1%1.8311.2%wind% %6.30%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%-----------114.80%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100

10、%-----------1113 淿 20211-1113.736.0%0.82021 塱202574%Word Bankwind% 6.00%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%----052019-0720

11、19-------11 35%45%55%65%75%85%95% 14 2022wind-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%-----------1

12、----------------092021-11% % -2022202120211-1116.20%2021111.1515.4%15 汣/ 0.74

13、5 kg 5 /kg 119 166.08 kg 0.5/kg 2657 0.757 kg 5 /kg 121 1.013 m2 20 /m2 871 0.554 kg 5 /kg 89 20.7 kg 0.5/kg 331 2.715 m2 20 /m2 1738 69 kg 0.5 /kg 1104 0.044 m2 20 /m2 28 0.718 kg 5 /kg 29 0.64 m 10/m 205 0.263 m 10/m 21 2.31 m 10/m 924 1.025 m 10/m 410 1.906 m 10/m 762 2637 358 2322 4092 鶨2022衣 20

14、214093.6202140豣7276.9%7752022 2022飺300020004000wind16 1 2021İ2 3 4 5 6 17 棬+3202110653/20211224PO42.5 595.19/118.35/% 2017-2021PO42.5 /-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0510152025 %wind3504004505005506006501 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 122021 2020 2019 2018 201718 2021PO42.5 2017-2021-0.1*wind280320

15、3604004404805201 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 122021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2021 202Q42022+20223804204605005405806206607007402021/1/12021/1/222021/2/262021/3/192021/4/92021/4/302021/5/212021/6/112021/7/22021/7/232021/8/132021/9/32021/9/242021/10/222021/11/122021/12/32021/12/24 19 /彨1/3 棬裬2021Q420222021Q

16、42022Q12022 辩2022裬裬賤裬1 2022硢 2022塢裬 20 2017-2021wind40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 122017 2018 2019 2020 20241618202011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 20218壩20171.5:11.25:12:11.5:121 2 202112252021涨漰20-1803202211 202111152021棩涨117 kg/100 kg/1-3 2021-2022

17、 140-160 150160-180 150 180 150 70 65 55 55120-160 140 60 100 60 60110-130 150 150 100130-150 100120-150 100160-18022 10PETTM 2018PE7-10 2021/12/28windP B 2 5 1 0 2 5 1 0 31.32 27.07% 48.27% 27.73% 6.13 98.35% 96.26% 96.93% 25.75 49.17% 28.54% 19.72% 3.18 96.69% 74.10% 69.67% 24.09 9.30% 18.22% 14.3

18、9% 3.32 19.52% 39.14% 47.22% 21.11 98.55% 57.65% 28.86% 2.31 98.14% 73.48% 54.22% 16.65 11.78% 20.78% 10.40% 3.84 51.14% 80.06% 81.81% 15.96 12.19% 16.46% 10.62% 3.60 64.98% 86.06% 89.38% 14.65 60.23% 50.37% 29.20% 2.33 88.95% 69.78% 72.61% 8.59 40.60% 33.80% 16.92% 1.27 24.28% 9.66% 7.30%PB L F PET

19、TMP E T T M 055PETTMPB23 BetaAlpha0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020040060080002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20016 2022 24 BetaAlpha 60070% 30%10-15%/5% 棺1壬232018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023Em3 63.68 67.21 74.81 72.73 76.81 81.12m3 38.21 41.67 46.38 45.82 49.16 52.73m3 25

20、.47 25.54 28.43 26.91 27.65 28.39% 60% 62% 62% 63% 64% 65%kg 7 8 8 8.5 8.5 8.5 2674 3334 3711 3895 4178 4482 80% 85% 85% 90% 90% 90%/ 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 10%/ 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 1800 567 677 753 756 811 86925 BetaAlpha0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52016 2017 2018

21、2019 2020 3Q21 055402016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3Q21 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3Q21 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3Q21 / / /%/% / 500060007000800090002000 , 52%, 5%, 35%, 2% , 6% wind26 1 2021İ2 3 4 5 6 27 沣 202021122021122

22、42120 /2020131/ 2022岣% /-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0岣 %iFinDwind0500025003000350028 沣 202120222021 920213720.8020201193.082527.72 棨iFinD00400050006000700080009000100002020-01-032020-02-212020-03-202020-04-172020-05-152020-06-122020-07-102020-08-072020-09-042020-10-022020-10-

23、302020-11-272020-12-252021-01-222021-02-192021-03-192021-04-162021-05-142021-06-112021-07-092021-08-062021-09-032021-10-012021-10-292021-11-262021-12-24400042004400460048005000520054002020-01-032020-01-312020-02-282020-03-272020-04-242020-05-222020-06-192020-07-172020-08-142020-09-112020-10-092020-1

24、1-062020-12-042021-01-012021-01-292021-02-262021-03-262021-04-232021-05-212021-06-182021-07-162021-08-132021-09-102021-10-082021-11-052021-12-0329 沣 2022 2 mm/3.2 mm/0554045502020-09-24 2021-01-13 2021-05-07 2021-08-18 2021-12-083.2 mm/ 2 mm/005006002016 2017 2018 2019 2020iFin

25、DSolarzoom30 沣 棬123豸绯廯 飬LOW-E31 1 2021İ2 3 4 5 6 32 沣, 33%, 26%, 16%, 10%, 18% 2022硢 2021203035%硢12 kW2022粣GWEC GW020406080002602803002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020GW GW /硢 岣33 沣飬 硢PCB20203280/70/.1/502.8/542.5 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 280 30

26、1.3 325.4 350.8yoy 7.6% 8.0% 7.8% 70 76.4 83.6 90.1yoy 9.1% 9.5% 7.8% 80 86.5 93.8 101.6yoy 8.1% 8.5% 8.3% 430 464.1 502.8 542.5yoy 7.9% 8.3% 7.9%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%005006002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 %34 沣20212022 2022 20218塱滮2021202272 50 2 10 2022 4 10 2022 F12 1

27、5 2022 3 15 20223-422 磩 3 10 2022 6 6 2021 6 6 20212015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 323 362 408 468 527 541 571 629 23.3 19.3 19.8 18.9 15.9 18.8 20 20 124.9 131 144.6 158.7 153.9 133 145 150 221.4 250.3 283.2 328.2 389 426.8 589 63335 沣3500400045005000550060006500 5000600070008000900010000

28、11000 2020Q32021202220211-32400tex 2400 2400texSMC500055006000650070007500800085009000950010000 36 1 2021İ2 3 4 5 6 37 2019-2020B飻仯塣 20222021202138 İ202212022Q1İ2BC32021澳2022彫alpha-70%-30%10%50%90%130%170%210% A-12%-8%-4%0%4%8%12%16%20%24% 300300 İ2021/12/28wind39 2022H1PETTMQ4-2022PETTM1

29、/2/5/10/2021/12/28wind2500350045005500650075008500950040090002900340039002020-01-01 2020-04-08 2020-07-15 2020-10-22 2021-01-28 2021-05-06 2021-08-12 2021-11-18 飨 1 2 5 1 0 3 9 .7 3 % 4 9 .9 3 % 7 9 .9 6 % 7 2 .0 8 % 1 1 .2 3 % 5 .6 1 % 2 .6 9 % 2 .6 9 % 4 7 .4 0 % 2 5 .9 9 % 1 3 .2 4 % 1

30、 3 .2 4 % 7 4 .5 2 % 8 4 .5 4 % 9 3 .1 5 % 9 5 .8 7 % 9 9 .7 3 % 5 2 .5 3 % 2 1 .0 3 % 1 0 .5 9 % 8 9 .5 9 % 9 3 .8 4 % 6 7 .9 8 % 6 7 .9 8 % 4 0 .2 7 % 2 2 .0 2 % 4 8 .4 4 % 4 8 .4 4 % 5 4 .5 2 % 2 7 .2 2 % 1 0 .9 0 % 9 .7 3 % 8 6 .0 3 % 6 2 .1 1 % 4 4 .8 6 % 4 4 .8 6 % 7 0 .1 4 % 6 7 .9 6 % 6 7 .9

31、 6 % 6 7 .9 6 % 9 6 .7 1 % 9 8 .3 6 % 9 9 .3 4 % 9 9 .4 1 % 8 0 .5 5 % 4 6 .1 0 % 5 7 .9 8 % 5 7 .9 8 % 3 3 .1 5 % 1 6 .5 5 % 3 2 .9 1 % 5 3 .4 9 % 3 2 .6 0 % 3 6 .2 5 % 7 4 .4 8 % 7 6 .9 3 % 3 6 .7 1 % 1 8 .3 3 % 1 7 .6 3 % 8 .8 1 %40 2020/47351022015-2020CAGR31.68%.%32%50%-30%-20%-10%0%

32、10%20%30%40%50%60%70%05003003502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020/ %0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 41 CB C B 42 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021H1CR3 CR5 CR10 CR30 CR50 CR1000%10%20%30%40%50%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021H1CR3 C

33、R5 CR10 CR30 CR50 CR100 wind CBB43 2021-4.8%-4.2%-3.6%-3.0%-2.4%-1.8%-1.2%-0.6%0.0%2020 20212020/2021 wind 2021Q3 棬12B2021Q344 硢 Cİ İ wind0.900.951.001.051.101.151.201.251.302016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3Q21 0.600.700.800.901.001.101.201.302016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3Q21 45 Cİ İ wind30%32%34%36%38%40%42%4

34、4%46%48%50%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3Q21 0%4%8%12%16%20%24%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3Q21 46 ROE棬İROEROE 棬CİROE İ wind0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3Q21 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3Q21 47 FCFFROIC FCFFCFCFFROICROICİ İROIC wind0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2016 2017 2

35、018 2019 2020 3Q21 -2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3Q21 48 1 2021İ2 3 4 5 6 49 涫 İİİ +2020Q411漰漰2022BCB 飺.71/54.17/68.22EPS1.69/2.15/2.70衰 50 仯壬仯 2020Q362滮302022Q2滮2022202112837 1000 飺2021-20236.02/7.40/9.48EPS1.72/2.11/2.71衰 51 BC202140.2625.02%7.735.27%25%2021Fas

36、t Flow Limited100%BCPPRC İ5-6 飺.39/16.77/20.69EPS0.84/1.05/1.30衰 52 溣 棬201310.55%GDP2-35-10 1T23 12ROE 飺.32/380.32/296.02EPS6.84/7.18/7.47衰 53 2022H1硢2020H2 档 2021152021H1213618%2021裬202146.2%15.5 152021Q42022 飺.15/55.26/64.60EPS1.26/1.58/1.84衰 54 EPS P/E2020A 2021E

37、 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E002271.SZ 1328 3389 4271 5417 6822 1.69 2.15 2.7 30.32 23.9 18.98603916.SH 108 441 602 740 948 1.72 2.11 2.71 17.09 13.92 10.86002372.SZ 387 1193 1339 1677 2069 0.84 1.05 1.30 27.88 22.25 18.03600585.SH 2136 35130 36232 38032 39602 6.84 7.18 7.47 7.51 7.15 6.87600176.SH 729 2416 4415 5526 6460 1.26 1.58 1.84 15.87 12.68 10.842021/12/31wind