1、January 2022Electricity Market ReportPAGE | 3 Abstract IEA. All rights reserved. Electricity Market Report January 2022 Abstract The year 2021 placed exceptional demands on electricity markets around the world. Strong economic growth, combined with more extreme weather conditions than in 2020, inclu

2、ding a colder than average winter, boosted global electricity demand by more than 6% the largest increase since the recovery from the financial crisis in 2010. The fast rebound in overall energy demand strained supply chains for coal and natural gas, pushing up wholesale electricity prices. Despite

3、the impressive growth of renewable power, electricity generation from coal and gas hit record levels. As a result, the global electricity sectors annual carbon dioxide emissions leaped to a new all-time high after having decreased for the previous two years.Building on our analysis of these recent e

4、vents, the January 2022 edition of the IEA Electricity Market Report presents our forecasts for demand, supply and emissions in global electricity markets through 2024. While renewables are set to meet the vast majority of the increase in global electricity demand in the coming years, this trend wou

5、ld only result in a plateauing of emissions from electricity generation. That is insufficient for the power sector to fulfil its critical role as a leading force in the decarbonisation of economies around the world. Electricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 4 IEA. All rights reserved. Table of c

6、ontents Table of contents Executive summary . 5 Global overview . 7 Demand, supply and emissions . 8 Economic recovery . 15 Fossil fuels . 18 Wholesale prices . 27 Climate protection policies and impact . 30 Regional perspective . 39 Asia Pacific . 40 Americas . 59 Europe . 68 Eurasia . 80 Middle Ea

7、st . 87 Africa . 94 Annex . 103 Electricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 5 Executive summary IEA. All rights reserved. Executive summary PAGE | 6 Executive summary IEA. All rights reserved. Electricity Market Report January 2022 Executive summary After small drop in 2020, global electricity dem

8、and grew by 6% in 2021. It was the largest ever annual increase in absolute terms (over 1 500 TWh) and the largest percentage rise since 2010 after the financial crisis. Around half of the global growth took place in China, where demand increased by an estimated 10%. Global electricity demand was bo

9、osted by a rapid economic recovery, combined with more extreme weather conditions than in 2020, including a colder than average winter. The industrial sector contributed the most to demand growth, followed by the commercial and services sector and then the residential sector. Coal met more than half

10、 of the increase in global demand. Coal-fired electricity generation reached an all-time peak, growing by 9%, the fastest since 2011, propelled by the exceptional demand and coals cost competitiveness in some markets compared to gas. Renewables grew strongly, by 6%, despite growth being limited by u

11、nfavourable weather conditions (in particular for hydropower). Gas-fired generation grew by 2%, while nuclear increased by 3.5%, almost reaching its 2019 levels. In total, CO2 emissions from electricity rose by close to 7%, taking them to a record high. The increased demand for fossil fuels combined

12、 with supply constraints resulted in scarcities and high energy prices. Due to particularly high prices for gas in Europe and its 20% share in the generation mix, average wholesale electricity prices in the fourth quarter of 2021 were more than four times as high as their 2015-2020 average. During 2

13、022-2024, we expect rapidly growing renewables to almost match moderate demand growth. We anticipate average annual electricity demand growth of 2.7%, but the Covid-19 pandemic and high energy prices add uncertainty to this. Record-breaking renewables growth (up 8% per year on average) is set to ser

14、ve more than 90% of net demand growth during this period. We expect nuclear-based generation to grow by 1% annually during the same period (meeting 4% of global demand growth). Fossil fuel generation is set to stagnate over the next three years. As a consequence of slowing electricity demand growth

15、and significant additions of renewable power capacity, fossil fuel-based generation is seen broadly flat in the coming years. We expect coal-fired generation to fall slightly as phase-outs and declining competitiveness relative to natural gas in markets like the United States and Europe are offset b

16、y growth in China and India. Gas-fired generation is forecast to grow annually by around 1%. Todays policy settings are insufficient to cut emissions. In our forecast, power sector emissions remain around the same level from 2021 to 2024, whereas they need to start declining sharply to meet the IEAs

17、 Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. This underlines the massive changes needed in terms of energy efficiency and low-carbon supply for the electricity sector to fulfil its critical role in decarbonising the broader energy system. Electricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 7 Global overview IEA.

18、 All rights reserved. Global overview Electricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 8 Global overview IEA. All rights reserved. Demand, supply and emissions Electricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 9 Global overview IEA. All rights reserved. After a strong increase in 2021, demand growth slows

19、in the coming yearsAfter small drop in 2020, global electricity demand grew by around 6% in 2021. It was the largest ever annual increase in absolute terms (over 1 500 TWh) and the largest relative rise since the recovery from the financial crisis in 2010. A rapid economic recovery, combined with mo

20、re extreme weather conditions than in 2020, including a colder than average winter, boosted demand. We estimate that the industrial sector contributed the most to demand growth, followed by the commercial and services sector and then the residential sector. Due to the fast recovery in 2021, we have

21、revised our expectations for electricity demand growth in 2022 down from 4% to 3%. This is similar to the average growth rate for the 10 years before the Covid-19 pandemic. Demand growth continues strongly for three major reasons. First, we expect a continued economic recovery. Second, rebound effec

22、ts will continue in 2022 because health protection measures in place at times in 2021 dampened demand. And finally, the expected easing of the energy crisis, which resulted in supply shortages and prohibitively high energy prices in the fourth quarter of 2021, will support growth. However, the devel

23、opment of energy prices and the Covid-19 pandemic are the main uncertainties for the demand outlook. We expect a slowdown in global electricity demand growth during 2023 (2.6% increase) and 2024 (slightly above 2% increase) as rebound effects run out and energy efficiency measures start showing effe

24、cts. The majority of supply growth in the years 2021 to 2024 is expected in China, accounting for around half of the net total increase, followed by India (12%), Europe (7%) and the United States (4%). China faced some supply difficulties at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2021 due to coal sh

25、ortages. After demand in the first three quarters of the year increased by almost 11% compared to the same period in 2020, we expect close to 10% growth for the full year. For the years 2022-2024 we expect demand growth to slow to an average of 4.5% (we refer to the compound average annual growth ra

26、te (CAAGR) when talking about average growth) due to efficiency improvements and slower economic growth. Demand in India declined by 7% from April to May 2021 due to surging Covid-19 cases. Consumption quickly recovered in June and reached new all-time highs in July and August. Temporary coal supply

27、 shortages, peaking at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2021, did not prevent strong annual growth overall, estimated at 10% year-on-year. In Europe and the United States, demand in 2021 recovered to reach similar levels to those seen in 2019 before the pandemic supported in both regions by hi

28、gher weather-driven demand. For the coming years we expect slow average growth, with energy efficiency measures countering increasing electrification. Electricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 10 Global overview IEA. All rights reserved. Global demand growth is concentrated in emerging and devel

29、oping Asia Global change in electricity demand, 2015-2024 IEA. All rights reserved. Source: IEA analysis based on data from IEA (2022), Data and statistics.-1 000- 5000 5001 0001 5002 0002000224Change in electricity demand (TWh)ChinaUnited StatesIndiaEuropeOthersNet

30、changeElectricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 11 Global overview IEA. All rights reserved. Coal came back in 2021, but renewables dominate medium-term supply growthThe year 2021 was exceptional for electricity markets due to the strong growth in electricity demand, unfavourable renewable condi

31、tions and increasing gas prices. Total thermal electricity generation increased by almost 6% (980 TWh) in 2021, the highest growth since 2010. After declining in 2019 and 2020, coal-fired electricity generation increased by around 9% and reached a new all-time high. Coal served more than half of the

32、 additional demand in 2021, growing in absolute terms faster than renewable energy for the first time since 2013. Gas-fired electricity, hampered by high gas prices, increased globally by 2%, offsetting the decline in 2020. Low-carbon generation increased by 5.5% (555 TWh) in 2021, with 83% of it be

33、ing renewable. Despite unfavourable weather conditions, absolute growth in renewable electricity generation in 2021 was the highest ever in absolute terms (up 6%). Nuclear grew by around 3.5% to reach almost the level of 2019. The outlook for 2022 to 2024 shows a quite different picture from that se

34、en in 2021. Assuming weather conditions return to long-term averages, we expect renewables to be responsible for the vast majority of the supply increase in the coming years, growing on average by 8% per year. By 2024 renewable electricity could provide more than 32% of the worlds electricity supply

35、 (from 28% in 2021). Nuclear electricity generation is forecast to grow on average by 1% between 2022 and 2024, mostly supported by nuclear generation growth in the Asia Pacific region. In total, we expect the low-carbon share of total generation to increase to 42% (from 38% in 2021). Although almos

36、t stagnating from 2022 to 2024 (growing on average by 0.2% annually), we expect fossil fuels still to produce 58% of total electricity generation in 2024, down from 62% in 2021. Despite a growing number of zero emissions pledges and phase-out plans for unabated coal, we expect coal-fired electricity

37、 generation to provide 34% of global generation in 2024, down from 36% in 2021. After the steep increase in 2021, we anticipate coal-fired generation to remain flat until 2024. After reaching around pre-pandemic 2019 generation levels in 2021, we see gas-fired electricity growing at an average 1% an

38、nual pace until 2024. The majority of this growth, however, is expected in 2023, when current forwards indicate a return of gas prices to lower levels. Electricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 12 Global overview IEA. All rights reserved. Of all electricity sources, coal-fired power saw the larg

39、est annual growth in 2021 Global change in electricity generation, 2015-2024 IEA. All rights reserved. Note: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. Source: IEA analysis based on data from IEA (2022), Data and statistics.-1 000- 500 0 5001 0001 5002 000201520

40、002220232024Change in electricity generation (TWh)NuclearCoalGasOther non-renewablesRenewablesNet changeElectricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 13 Global overview IEA. All rights reserved. Global power system emissions jumped in 2021; expected to plateau during 2022-2024

41、After declining in 2019 and 2020, global electricity sector emissions grew by close to 7% and reached a new all-time peak in 2021. Coal was the main driver of this increase in 2021, accounting for over 800 Mt of CO2 emissions growth. The slower demand growth and continued increase of low-carbon gene

42、ration after 2021 limits emissions growth to significantly less than 1% annually from 2022 to 2024, as combined gas- and coal-fired generation emissions increase slowly. By 2024 emissions from power generation reach over 13 Gt of CO2. In our forecast, power sector emissions remain around the same le

43、vel from 2021 to 2024, whereas they need to start declining sharply to meet the IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. This underlines the massive changes needed in terms of energy efficiency and low carbon supply for the electricity sector to fulfil its critical role in decarbonising the broader

44、 energy system. The emissions intensity of global power generation grew by 1% in 2021, the first growth since 2011. We expect it to decline annually on average by 2% during 2022 to 2024, as low-carbon sources cover the majority of additional demand during that time. Although the emissions intensity

45、between 2021 and 2024 declines in 78% of all countries, representing 95% of global consumption, the magnitude of reductions varies widely across different regions. Regional evolution of global power system emissions intensity, 2015-2024 IEA. All rights reserved. Source: IEA analysis based on data fr

46、om IEA (2022), Data and statistics. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900200212023CO intensity (g CO/kWh)OthersEuropeIndiaUnited StatesChinaWorldElectricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 14 Global overview IEA. All rights reserved. Coal-fired power generation was the main cause of the

47、 emissions increase in 2021 Change in electricity generation emissions by source, 2015-2024 IEA. All rights reserved. Note: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. Source: IEA analysis based on data from IEA (2022), Data and statistics. - 600- 400- 200 0 200

48、400 600 8001 0002000224Change in emissions (Mt CO)CoalGasOther non-renewablesNet changeElectricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 15 Global overview IEA. All rights reserved. Economic recovery Electricity Market Report January 2022 PAGE | 16 Global overview IEA. A

49、ll rights reserved. Diverging economic recovery expected for 2021The global economy recovered significantly in 2021 after a steep decline in 2020. In October 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated global GDP growth of 5.9% for 2021, followed by 4.9% in 2022, 3.6% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2

50、024. Compared with its April 2021 estimate, this corresponds to slightly lower growth for 2021 (down 0.1 percentage points) and higher growth in 2022 (up 0.5). The downward adjustment of the growth estimate for 2021 had several reasons, including Covid-19 surges in low-income countries and supply di