1、Storage Futures Study: Four Phases Framework and ModelingJune 22, 2021Speakers: Paul Denholm, Four Phases Lead AuthorWill Frazier, ReEDS Diurnal Storage Lead AuthorNREL | 2Storage Futures StudyNREL is analyzing the rapidly increasing role of energy storage in the electrical grid through 2050.https:/

2、www.nrel.gov/analysis/storage-futures.html“Four Phases” - theoretical framework driving storage deploymentTechno-Economic Analysis of Storage TechnologiesDeep dive on future costs of distributed and grid batteriesVarious cost-driven grid scenarios to 2050Distributed PV + storage adoption analysisGri

3、d operational modeling of high-levels of storageOne Key Conclusion: Under all scenarios, dramatic growth in grid energy storage is the least cost option.SFS: Planned reports and discussed reports todayThe Four Phases of Storage Deployment: This report examines the framework developed around energy s

4、torage deployment and value in the electrical grid.Storage Technology Modeling Input Data Report : A report on a broad set of storage technologies along with current and future costs for all modeled storage technologies including batteries, CSP, and pumped hydropower storage.Grid-Scale Diurnal Stora

5、ge Scenarios : A report on the various future capacity expansion scenarios and results developed through this project. These scenarios are modeled in the ReEDS model.Distributed Storage Adoption Scenarios (Technical Report): A report on the various future distributed storage capacity adoption scenar

6、ios and results and implications. These scenarios reflect significant model development and analysis in the dGen model.Grid Operational Impacts of Storage (Technical Report): A report on the operational characteristics of energy storage, validation of ReEDS scenarioson capturing value streams for en

7、ergy storage as well as impacts of seasonal storage on grid operations. Released late 2021Key Learnings Summary: A final summary report that draws on the prior reports and related literature, generates key conclusions and summarizes the entire activity. Released late 2021= discussed todayAll reports

8、 are or will be linked to the SFS website: https:/www.nrel.gov/analysis/storage-futures.html Four Phases: A Visionary Framework The Four Phases report synthesizes a large body of work into a straightforward narrative framework we anticipate will be helpful to stakeholders. The important conclusions

9、are the trends and the drivers of deployment rather than the specific quantities and timing.The Four Phases of Storage DeploymentPhasePrimary ServiceNational Potential in Each PhaseDurationResponse SpeedDeployment prior to 2010Peaking capacity, energy time shifting and operating reserves23 GW of pum

10、ped hydro storageMostly 812 hrVaries1Operating reserves30 GW0.5 MW) Storage Deployment with 1 hour or less capacity, 20112019Limits to Phase 105,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000CAISO ERCOTISO-NE MISO NYISOPJMSPPFRCCSERC WECC TotalNational Capacity Procured (MW)SpinningContingencyReservesRegulatingR

11、eservesFrequencyResponseMarket RegionsNon-Market Regions01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000Regional Capacity Required (MW)01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000Regional Capacity Procured (MW)Current U.S. grid requirements for high-value operating reserve products potentially served by energy storage in Phase 1

12、 Phase 2: The Rise of Battery Peaking PlantsInstallation dates of U.S. peaking capacity (non-combined Heat and Power, Combustion Turbines, Internal Combustion, oil/gas steam) (EIA 860)0246802224Peaking Capacity Installed (GW)Over the next 20 years, we would expect about 150 GW of peaking

13、capacity to retireKey Issue: Duration Required to Reliably Decrease Net PeakNYISO = New York Independent System Operator FRCC= Florida Reliability Coordinating CouncilDuration RequirementsMarketOperatorDuration Minimum(hours)ISO-NE2CAISO4NYISO4SPP4MISO4PJM10Regional Energy Storage Duration Requireme

14、nts in response to FERC 841 1PJM is in the process of updating this value based on an effective load carrying capability calculation. (“PJM Interconnection L.L.C., Docket No. ER21-278-000 Effective Load Carrying Capability Construct,” PJM, October 30, 2020, https:/ 841 https:/www.ferc.gov/media/orde

15、r-no-841Capacity Value as a Function of Duration007080908Annualized Capacity Value ($/kW-yr)Storage Duration (Hours)Total ValueMarginal ValueValue of storage providing capacity, assuming a 4-hour duration requirement and a $90/kW-yr capacity paymentEnergy Shifting Value01020304

16、0506070809001112Total Annual Value of Energy Time Shifting ($/kW-yr)Storage Duration (Hours)CAISOPJM053456789101112Marginal Annual Value of Energy Time Shifting ($/kW-yr)Storage Duration (Hours)CAISOPJM(a) Total value (b) Marginal value Example of the total and marginal value o

17、f energy time-shifting using 2019 energy market valuesTotal Value0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%02040608000Fraction of Total Value from CapacityAnnual Total (Energy and Capacity) Value ($/kW-yr)Storage Duration (Hours)Total ValueMarginal ValueFraction of total value from capa

18、cityExample of the total and marginal value and of a battery storage system providing peaking capacityExample Benefit/Cost Ratio00.20.40.60.811.21.40Benefit - Cost Ratio for Provision of Energy and CapacityStorage Duration (Hours)2024 Cost Estimates2020 Cost EstimatesExample of the Benefi

19、t/Cost ratio of a battery storage system providing peaking capacityLimits Widening Peaks20,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,00055,00006121824Net Demand (MW)Hour of Day No Storage With StorageWith storage peak demand period is now 4 hoursSimulated impact of increased 4-hour storage deployment on n

20、et load shapeBut Peak Narrows with PV Deployment010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00006121824Net Demand (MW)Hour of Day0% PV5% PV10% PV15% PV20% PVPV increases opportunities for storage as peaking capacity California ExamplePotential for Phase 202040608000%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%6-Hour

21、 or Shorter Battery Durations with High Capacity CreditAnnual Percentage of Electricity from PV (Conterminous U.S.)Trend of 20,000 scenariosThe potential opportunity of Phase 2: National potential of 46 hourbatteries with high capacity credit Phase 3: The Era of Ubiquitous Storage?010,00020,00030,00

22、040,00050,0008/29 0:008/29 12:008/30 0:008/30 12:008/31 0:00Demand (MW)LoadNet Load with 4- and 6-Hr Storage (Phase 2)Net Load w/VGNet Load with 8-Hr StorageNet load peak is about 7 hours wide after Phase 2Net load peak is about 10 hours wide with example Phase 3 deploymentsExample of Phase 2: 9,000

23、 MW with 4.5-hour average durationExample of Phase 3: 7,000 MW with 8-hour average durationLonger peaks with greater storage deploymentNREL | 28Storage Costs Are Projected to Decline Beyond 2020Cost declines (from 2018) range from 21% to 67% by 2030Source: Augustine, Chad, and Nate Blair. Energy Sto

24、rage Futures Study: Storage Technology Modeling Input Data Report. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5700-78694. https:/www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/78694.pdf.Phase 3: Continued Deployment of 8 Hrstorage?-10,000-5,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0004/13 0:004/13

25、 12:004/14 0:004/14 12:004/15 0:00Power (MW)LoadNet Load w/VGVG SupplySupply of VG exceeds electricity demand05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,0004/9/24 0:0014/9/24 6:0074/9/24 12:00134/9/24 18:00194/10/24 0:00254/10/24 6:00314/10/24 12:00374/10/24 18:0043PV Generation (MW)PV StoredPV Used Dire

26、ctlyPV CurtailedCurtailment lasts 6 hours10,0004/13 0:004/13 12:004/14 0:004/14 12:004/15 0:00 Stored with Phase 2 deploymentsVRE supply and net load during two spring daysAvailability of curtailed energy during a spring period showing length of curtailment eventsResidual curtailment after Phase 2 s

27、torage deploymentsPhase 3: Ultimate Limits Due to Seasonal Mismatch010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0009/2 0:009/2 12:009/3 0:009/3 12:009/4 0:00Demand (MW)LoadNet Load w/80% RENet Load with 80% RE and Dirunal Storage 80%Charging raises net loadDischarging reduces net peak loadDecline in capa

28、city value due to a flattened net loadSimulated flattened loads in ERCOT at 80% REPhase 3: Ultimate Limits Due to Seasonal Mismatch0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%00703/113/123/133/143/153/16Storage State of Charge (%)Generation (GW)RE CurtailedRE StoredDischarge from StorageRE Used Dire

29、ctlyNormal LoadTotal VG PotentialStorage SOCResidual load is not shownand is zero or negativeduring this entire period3/17Simulated flattened loads in ERCOT at 80% REDecline in time-shifting value due to zero net load.Phase 3 Opportunities02040608001802000%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%Storag

30、e with High Capacity Credit (GW)Annual Percentage of Electricity from PV (Conterminous U.S.)Up to 12 HoursUp to 6 HoursNational opportunities for long-duration (up to 12-hour) storage providing capacity services in Phase 3Phase 4: The Need for Residual Capacity010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070

31、,00002000400060008000Net Load (MW)Hours at LoadBaseVG OnlyVG with diurnal storageFirm capacity needed to meet net peak demand and serve remaining 10%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00002000400060008000Net Load (MW)Hours at LoadBaseVG OnlyVG with diurnal storageERCOTResidual load duration curves at

32、 90% RE showing the need for significant firm capacity CaliforniaSeasonal Storage Operation at 98% REPhase 4 Opportunities0500300350808284868890Remaining Capacity Required Potentially Met by Seasonal Storage (GW)% of Demand Met By RE and Diurnal StorageLow RE Capacity Credit ScenarioHigh

33、RE Capacity Credit ScenarioBounding the size of Phase 4 by estimating the national residual capacity requirements under 80%90% RE scenariosThe Four Phases of Storage DeploymentPhasePrimary ServiceNational Potential in Each PhaseDurationResponse SpeedDeployment prior to 2010Peaking capacity, energy t

34、ime shifting and operating reserves23 GW of pumped hydro storageMostly 812 hrVaries1Operating reserves30 GW1 hrMilliseconds to seconds2Peaking capacity30100 GW, strongly linked to PV deployment26 hrMinutes3Diurnal capacity and energy time shifting 100+ GW. Depends on both on Phase 2 and deployment o

35、f variable generation resources412 hrMinutes4Multiday to seasonal capacity and energy time shiftingZero to more than 250 GWDays to monthsMinutesWhile the Phases are roughly sequential there is considerable overlap and uncertainty!Grid-Scale Diurnal Storage ScenariosVariable Renewable Energy CostStor

36、age CostNatural Gas PriceReference CostLow Wind CostHigh Wind CostLow PV CostHigh PV CostReference CostLow Battery CostHigh Battery CostReference NG priceHigh NG priceLow NG priceTransmission costReference transmission costHigh transmission costCombinations of these sensitivities are used to create

37、a total of 19 scenariosImprovements to Storage Representation in ReEDS7 years of weather and load data for analyzing system reliabilityStorage resources are split out by duration to capture the relationship between duration, capacity provision, energy arbitrage, and costDispatch of generation, stora

38、ge, and transmission simulated for each hour of year to inform investment decisionsModelled storage deployment in ReEDSInteraction of Storage and Net Load (2050 in California)Net load profiles inform capacity value of storageEnergy price profiles inform energy time-shifting value of storageStorage C

39、orrelates with PV More than WindPeaking capacity potential (GW) (determined by net load shape)Energy time-shifting potential (TWh) (determined by energy price profiles)Amount of Generation that Goes through StorageTransmission Correlates More with WindRelative Value of Storage ServicesEconomic Deplo

40、yment versus Peaking Capacity Potential29% PV43% PV22% PV31% PV41% PVStorage is optimized based on the relationship between:- capacity value- energy value- storage duration- storage cost & performanceGrid-Scale Diurnal Storage Scenarios Key TakeawaysQuestions and DiscussionEncouraging everyone to sh

41、are/forward NREL outreach on social mediahttps:/www.nrel.gov/news/program/2021/nrel-launches-storage-futures-study-with-visionary-framework-for-dramatic-increase-in-deployment.htmlNREL also posted items on Linkedin, Twitter, etc.https:/www.nrel.gov/analysis/storage-futures.htmlNREL/PR-5C00-80366NREL

42、 | 48Future Battery Costs by Cost Scenario - ModerateUse same cost projections for 4-hour BESS as in Cole & Frazier 2020*Projections based on literature review of 16 projectionsAdjusted cost projections for other durations to account for reductions at componentBNEF data for component-level reduction

43、sLIB pack costs reduce faster than rest of component costsLong-duration BESS costs reduce faster (LIB make up greater share of costsCompared here to EPRI, BNEF and Schmidt*https:/atb.nrel.gov/NREL | 49Current Battery Costs ResidentialStand-Alone Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) Based on methodol

44、ogy used in NREL PV and BESS cost benchmarking study* Assumes $176/kWh battery pack (BNEF 2020) Installation, overhead and profit margin assumptions aligned with NREL Residential PV model Costs converted to linear equation based on battery power and energy capacity for use in dGen*Feldman et al. 202

45、0 (forthcoming) U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmark: Q1 2019, NREL/TP-6A20-75161NREL | 50Future Battery Costs by ComponentBattery pack costs decline much faster than other cost componentsMust account for this or will skew BESS costs as a function of durationDetermined current year cost breakout by component for all durations and then applied cost reductions by component