1、 / & 30% 2016 2017 24.39%2+3+3 2016 2019 B 20 1 2 34 2018 201948.5%201911 23.2%2020 2020-2022EPS0.710.840.98PE 27X23X19X 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 1,101 1,008 1,174 1,351 1,545 (+/-)% 11.24% -8.44% 16.43% 15.07% 14.43% 178 179 216 256 299 (+/-)% -6.38% 0.48% 20.38% 18.61% 17.08% 0.59 0.59 0.71 0

2、.84 0.98 0.00 23.11 26.80 22.60 19.30 0.00 2.64 3.23 2.82 2.46 (%) 20.24% 11.44% 12.07% 12.50% 12.73% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 225 305 305 305 305 2020/6/24 6 24.85 18.97 12 10.3123.12 5,777 305 A 305 B/H 0/0 6 -47% -36% -25% -14% -3% 2019/72019/102020/12020/4 % 1M 3M 12M 27% 43% 8% 19%

3、29% 1% -20200614 -20200608 -20200601 -20200525 S0550515060001 (021)20361174 603697 2020-06-29 2 / 32 1. . 5 1.1. . 5 1.2. . 6 2. . 7 2.1. . 7 2.2. . 8 2.3. . 9 2.4. . 9 3. & . 10 3.1. . 10 3.1.1. . 10 3.1.2. . 14 3.3 . 16 3.4. & . 17 3.4.1. . 17 3.4.2. . 20 3.4.3. 365. 21 3.4.4. . 22 3.5. . 25 4. .

4、26 5. . 27 6. . 29 184%19 . 5 29%. 5 3 . 5 4 . 6 52015-2019 . 7 62015-2019 . 7 72015-2019 . 7 82016-2019 . 7 92012-2019. 8 102012-2019 . 8 11 . 8 3 / 32 12 . 9 132016-2019 .11 142017-2019.11 15 . 13 16. 13 17. 13 182016-2019. 13 19/100g . 14 202015-2019 . 14 212016-2019 . 14 22 . 15 23. 16 24 . 16 2

5、5 . 17 262016-2019. 17 27 . 18 28 . 18 29. 18 30. 19 31 . 19 32. 19 33 . 19 34. 20 35. 21 36 . 21 37 . 21 38. 21 39 . 23 40 . 23 41. 24 422 . 24 4316-18 . 24 442018. 24 452019. 26 46. 26 47/. 26 48. 27 1 . 10 2 .11 . 15 4 . 17 5 . 17 6365 . 22 72017-2019 . 25 4 / 32 8 . 25 9 . 27 10624 . 29 5 / 32 1

6、. 1.1. A 84%1987 1997 2001 2007 20102013 2013 2019AA 184%19 29% 3 6 / 32 68.04%49.89% 4 1.2. 20192015 2019 7.52 10.08CAGR7.60%1.08 1.79CAGR13.46%20199.45% 12018 9 2019 5.86%2 2019 4000 7 / 32 52015-2019 62015-2019 20192015 2019 16.22%20.40% 201627.47/201937.79/ 201514.36%201917.76% 2019 2.28 pct 720

7、15-2019 82016-2019 2. 2.1. Frost & Sullivan 200297CAGR 12.3%2012320 20191069CAGR18.8% 8 / 32 92012-2019 102012-2019 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan 2.2. 2017 32.7%48.66% 11 9 / 32 1 2 3 7-20 2.3. 2019 600 33%10% 12 2.4. 10 1-2 2 10 / 32 1 15,000 30 32 5,00 5.8 1,000 200 10,000 450 2 300 2,3

8、52 1,200 6 20206 10087 3. & 3.1. 3.1.1. 83.77%2016-20196.308.44CAGR 7.58%2016-2018CAGR12.33%6.26%2018 20192016 76.49%83.77% 11 / 32 132016-2019 142017-2019 2 12 / 32 20162017 7.8324.39%10%+ 13 / 32 15 16 8 2009 13 17 182016-2019 Wind 20206 9.98/100g38%2019 32.99%80% 14 / 32 19/100g 202015-2019 Wind

9、20198.44%18Q4 19.37% 19 212016-2019 3.1.2. .19432.13CAGR 11.64%2+3+3 233 2017 15 / 32 22 20161+2+N 7.5% 6% 2019 20 400 16 / 32 23 3.3 3.7 20076000 20102.52017 60003.7 24 3.08 17 / 32 3.57 2016 20 3.08 4 3.08 6.12 24 3.4. & 3.4.1. 2019 9.8097.5%% 201934.1% 53.5% 25 2

10、62016-2019 5 () 18 / 32 2020 660417243 7215 27 28 29 19 / 32 20195.6456.1% 2015-2019 CAGR2.4% 30 31 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 200182019 YoY 68.3% 65.8% 62.7% 60.2% 56.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 200182019 20191690 4.73%57.04% 32 33 Wind 20 /

11、 32 34 3.4.2. 2019 8.4%23.9% 6.1% 20192.1521.4%2015-2019CAGR 20.9%201513.4%201921.4%2019 15920188 2015-2019CAGR14.0%20193420 49 21 / 32 35 36 37 38 3.4.3. 365 15 3-53 2 20 3 33 70% 1 2 =*1.5%= *1%3 22 / 32 365 3652017365 365 20184 2019436514 2019365 253 6365 123 50 1602 3 KA 16132 10 - 902KA 613210-

12、90 16132 10 - 90215 3305-45 3.4.4. 12016 2201832019 6 23 / 32 39 2016 2016 561442.10%1.45%2017 20182015-2018 CAGR3.6%10.1%3.9% 40 2018 6024 24 / 32 208 172.835.3%500 4110.8% 11.8% 41 422 4316-18 442018 25 / 32 72017-2019 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1 273 -57 216 +15 231 +12 243 198 -47

13、 151 +8 159 +4 163 54 -3 51 -2 49 +1 50 50 -9 41 -11 30 +3 33 82 -11 71 -2 69 +2 71 45 0 45 +4 49 -5 44 73 -11 62 -5 57 -1 56 775 -138 637 +7 644 +16 660 2.422019 6 8 1.07 16 6 2 1.35 1 UU5202 TV3 520 3.5. 2013 4 2018 201814.23/201921.13/ 48.5%20191121.13/ 16.23/23.2%2020 26 / 32 452019 46 47/ Wind

14、4. 2020Q11.22 12.03%4-5 2020Q1 1.22771.00% 27 / 32 48 5. 2020-2022EPS0.710.840.98PE27X23X19X 2020 PE47 20PE35X24.85 9 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 827.16 989.72 1100.95 1007.99 1173.62 1350.54 1545.42 yoy 10.04% 19.65% 11.24% -8.44% 16.43% 15.07% 14.43% 554.28 629.00 737.48 658.65 734.76 83

15、6.31 949.52 yoy 13.48% 17.25% -10.69% 11.56% 13.82% 13.54% 272.88 360.72 363.47 349.34 438.86 514.23 595.90 (%) 33.0% 36.5% 33.0% 34.7% 37.4% 38.1% 38.6% - 629.57 783.14 896.94 844.41 976.56 1116.50 1271.14 yoy 9.5% 24.4% 14.5% -5.9% 15.7% 14.3% 13.9% 22,583 26,459 28,435 22,472 25,843 28,686 31,554

16、 yoy 17.2% 7.5% -21.0% 15.0% 11.0% 10.0% (/ 27.90 29.60 31.5 37.60 37.79 38.92 40.28 yoy 6.09% 6.42% 19.37% 0.50% 3.00% 3.50% 418.69 492.76 604.02 565.83 625.20 707.85 801.99 / 18.50 18.60 21.20 25.2 24.19 24.68 25.42 yoy 0.5% 14.0% 18.9% -4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 28 / 32 210.88 290.38 292.91 278.58 351.36 40

17、8.65 469.15 (%) 33.50% 37.08% 32.66% 32.99% 35.98% 36.60% 36.91% - 54.61 54.50 40.22 0 0 0 0 42.11 35.47 27.64 0 0 0 0 12.50 19.03 12.58 0 0 0 0 (%) 22.89 34.91 31.27 0 0 0 0 - 71.35 74.59 82.68 88.15 111.95 139.94 172.12 yoy 25.00% 4.54% 10.85% 6.62% 27.00% 25.00% 23.00% 46.72 49.24 50.30 44.34 54.

18、86 68.15 82.10 yoy 5.39% 2.15% -11.85% 23.72% 24.23% 20.47% 24.63 25.35 32.37 43.81 57.09 71.79 90.02 (%) 34.51% 33.98% 39.15% 49.70% 51% 51% 52% 34.25 35.55 37.59 35.47 39.73 43.70 47.19 yoy 1.45% 3.80% 5.74% -5.64% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 20.59 21.93 24.76 21.96 24.63 27.01 29.10 yoy 6.51% 12.90% -11.31% 12.16% 9.65% 7.76% 13.66 13.62 12.83 13.51 15.10 16.69 18.09 (%) 39.89%