1、 / IGBT IGBT IGBT2%IGBT Fabless+ FablessIGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBTIGBT 120IGBT/ IGBT IGBT IGBT70% IGBT IGBT 2015 20213.62% 20192021 7.759.7112.99EPS0.831.19 1.54PE47.1732.9825.52 SiCGaN 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 438 675 775 971 1,299 (+/-)% 45.67% 54.20% 14.81% 25.19% 33.84% 53 97 133 191 247 (+/-

2、)% 145.61% 83.50% 37.97% 43.01% 29.27% 0.44 0.81 0.83 1.19 1.54 0.00 0.00 47.17 32.98 25.52 0.00 0.00 6.10 5.15 4.29 (%) 15.37% 22.28% 12.94% 15.61% 16.79% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 120 120 160 160 160 2020/2/14 6 89.25 39.35 12 15.2939.35 6,296 160 A 160 B/H 0/0 0 0% 19% 38% 57% 76% 2020

3、/1 % 1M 3M 12M 0% 0% 0% 5% -2% -17% 600584.SH 2019-12-22 5G 2019-11-26 20205G 2019-11-23 S0550518060004 01058034600 S0550516050002 02120361230 603290 / 2020-02-15 2 / 25 1. IGBT . 5 1.1. FablessIGBT . 5 1.2. . 7 1.3. IGBT . 9 2. . 11 2.1. IGBT . 13 2.1.1.IGBT. 13 2.1.2.IGBT . 15 2.2. IGBT . 16 2.2.1

4、. 16 2.2.2. . 18 3. . 19 4. . 21 4.1. . 21 4.2. . 21 3 / 25 1. 5 2. 5 3 . 6 4FablessIGBT . 6 5 . 6 6. 7 7 . 7 8. 7 9 . 7 10 . 8 11 . 8 12 . 8 13. 9 14IGBT . 10 15Warpage . 10 16IGBT . 10 17. 11 18SiGaNSiC . 11 19SiGaNSiC . 11 20. 12 21IGBTMOSFETBJT . 12 22Si . 12 23IGBT . 13 24IGBT . 13 25IGBT . 14

5、26IGBT . 14 27IGBT . 15 28IGBT . 15 29IGBT . 16 30IGBT . 16 31IGBT . 16 4 / 25 32IGBT . 17 33IGBT . 17 34IGBT . 18 35 . 18 36IGBT . 18 37 . 19 38. 20 39. 20 40. 21 41PE . 22 5 / 25 1. IGBT 1.1. FablessIGBT 1 IGBT 2005427 InfineonXilinx 2005 IGBTIGBT IGBT 2007IGBTIGBT 2018IGBT 202024600 2 6 / 25 3 IG

6、BTIGBT 10838IGBT1200V IGBT421 600V/650V IGBT139 1200VIGBT129 IGBT3300V 4FablessIGBT 5 “Fabless+”IGBTIGBT FablessIGBT IGBTIGBT 20162018 7 / 25 590.221283.502705.76 DBC IGBT IGBT 20162019 50% 1.2. 6 7 IGBT /UPS 2017IGBT2017 8 9 8 / 25 10 wind 20152016 2018201850%2019 20186.759674 30%Fabless 2015 20154

7、.7%201917.6%2015 11 12 1200V1200V IGBT201672% 46.9%IGBT600V/650V IGBT1200VIGBT 24%60% IGBT 201611.97%201818.41% 9 / 25 1.3. IGBT IGBT IGBTIGBT SiC/ 15 / 13 IGBTIC IGBT IGBTIGBTFabless IGBTwaferIGBT68 IC IGBTIGBT ICCTECoefficient of thermal expansionCTE CTE Warpagestress IGBT 10 / 25 14IGBT 15Warpage

8、 IGBT 99 2869 235 35.4%IGBT 16IGBT 11 / 25 2. 17 SiSiCGaNSi SiCGaNSiSi SiCGaN SiCGaN SiSiCGaN SiSiCGaNSi SiCGaN MOSFETIGBTGJT 18SiGaNSiC 19SiGaNSiC elecfans PNTpower IGBT 12 / 25 BJT 1 kV 500 A MOSFET 1 kV 500 A 20 21IGBTMOSFETBJT IGBTBJTMOSFETMOSFET ns/MOSFET 10 kHzIGBTIGBT IPMIPMIGBT 10-10k Hz UPS

9、BJT Thyristor IGBT 22Si yole 13 / 25 2.1. IGBT 2.1.1. IGBT 23IGBT yole IGBTIGBT1988 IGBTPT 600 V0.5 usTrenchNPT FSFS-TrenchFS-TrenchIGBT6500 V 2003IGBTFS-Trench FS-Trench 24IGBT IGBTIGBT 1200 V650V450VIGBT 1200 VIGBT 1700 VIGBT3300 V IGBT IGBT 14 / 25 25IGBT 26IGBT 15 / 25 2.1.2. IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT

10、 IGBT IGBT23IGBT90 120IGBTIGBT 27IGBT 28IGBT IGBTYoleIGBT2022 55IGBT202221 17.5%IGBT8.4% IGBTIGBT201623.5% 16 / 25 202238.2%IGBT IGBTIGBT 29IGBT 30IGBT yole ResearchInChina 2.2. IGBT 2.2.1. IGBTIGBTIGBT DBCIGBT IGBTIGBT 31IGBT 17 / 25 IGBT60%IGBTIGBT IGBTIGBT2016 32.5% 11.5% 2017IGBT 33.9%27.8%IGBT2

11、01667.7% 201777.4%IGBT 40%IGBT201673.3%2017 70%IGBT 32IGBT IHS 33IGBT IHS IGBT 600 V-1700 V 400 VIGBT1700 VIGBT 2017 4500 VIGBT 18 / 25 34IGBT yole 2.2.2. IGBT IGBT20162018 IGBT1.28%1.65%2.30% 20213.62%IGBT 201710IGBT 35 36IGBT yoleIHS 19 / 25 3. IGBT IGBT / IGBT33% IGBT 2025 IGBT 37 yole 50%1.3% 20

12、20 30% IGBT 120/ IGBT6 420165 IGBT 20 / 25 38 39 21 / 25 4. 4.1. 201920217.759.7112.99 20192021 18.3%21.9%24.6% IGBTIGBT Fabless 40 4.2. “”201920217.75 9.7112.99EPS0.831.191.54PE47.1732.98 25.52 A 202021439.352019EPS 0.83PE47.172019PE134.33 IGBTIGBT FablessIGBT 22 / 25 202075PE2020EPS1.19 89.25 41PE

13、 Wind SiC GaN 23 / 25 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 81 618 740 868 96 133 191 247 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 214 269 323 439 23 7 11 12 144 145 187 249 0 0 0 0 11 12 13 14 9 9 8 8 450 1,044 1,263 1,570 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -8 -51 -67 -133 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 205 218 227 220 120 98 144 134 25 25 25 25

14、 -45 -10 -9 6 0 0 0 0 -19 449 -13 -12 274 277 274 256 84 172 235 368 724 1,321 1,538 1,826 93 87 82 78 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 58 66 85 112 3 4 4 6 0.81 0.83 1.19 1.54 0 0 0 0 2.71 6.45 7.64 9.18 193 192 219 261 0.75 0.61 0.90 0.84 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 54.20% 14.81% 25.19% 33.84% 100 100 100 100

15、83.50% 37.97% 43.01% 29.27% 294 293 319 361 434 1,032 1,223 1,469 29.41% 30.80% 30.61% 30.05% -4 -4 -4 -4 14.32% 17.21% 19.66% 18.99% 724 1,321 1,538 1,826 111.22 126.66 121.51 123.23 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 99.35 98.54 101.49 100.15 675 775 971 1,299 477 537 674 909 40.55% 22.17% 20.74% 19.76% 4 4

16、5 6 2.33 5.42 5.78 6.02 0 0 0 0 1.57 4.66 4.91 5.05 15 17 19 26 22 24 28 36 2.24% 2.20% 2.00% 2.00% 9 7 -7 -11 3.25% 3.10% 2.90% 2.80% 0 0 0 0 1.36% 0.90% -0.72% -0.81% 0 0 0 0 109 150 214 277 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 109 150 214 277 13 16 24 30 P/E 0.00 47.17 32.98 25

17、.52 96 133 191 247 P/B 0.00 6.10 5.15 4.29 97 133 191 247 P/S 6.36 7.38 5.90 4.41 0 0 0 0 22.28% 12.94% 15.61% 16.79% 24 / 25 201642016 201720181 2014620174 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 25 / 25 400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 021-20

18、361121 chen_ L liu_  C