1、 Gold ETF commentary May outflows from gold ETFs partially reverse recent gains June 2022 www.gold.org 01 Highlights Global gold ETFs ended their four-month run of positive inflows in May, with outflows of 53t (US$3.1bn). All regions saw outflows in May, with North America seeing the largest drop in

2、 holdings. Global holdings of gold ETFs are up 8% year-to-date and around 3% (99t) below the November 2020 peak of 3,922t May highlights Global gold ETFs ended their four-month run of positive inflows in May, with outflows of 53t (US$3.1bn). While this was the largest monthly outflow since March 202

3、1, total holdings remain 8% higher year-to-date at 3,823t (US$226bn). The rising US dollar and higher interest rates weighed on gold in early May. Momentum from ETF outflows also fuelled the move down to US$1,800/oz mid-month. Gold swiftly recovered from that level with a dollar pullback and lower U

4、S 10-year real yield lending support but the rebound ran out of steam and gold closed the month hovering around US$1,850/oz. For more details on the drivers of the gold price during May please see our Gold Market Commentary. ETF flows closely echoed the movement in the gold price; outflows accelerat

5、ed through the first half of May, followed by a flurry of inflows, which petered out at the end of the month. All regions saw net outflows, but North American-listed funds accounted for almost two thirds of the total with outflows of 34t (US$2bn), concentrated early in the month. The Fed delivered o

6、n its expected half-point rate hike, which likely contributed to the outflows. But Chair Powell signalled that future rises would not exceed 50bps and has repeatedly warned that bringing problematic inflation back towards the 2% target will involve pain. The prospect of potential recession and a res

7、pite in dollar strength may have encouraged the flurry of inflows late in the month, despite the strong rally in equities markets. Holdings of European-listed funds fell by 17t (US$1bn). The UK led the decline with outflows of 14t (US$856mn) as a 1 Average weekly basis over the month fourth consecut

8、ive Bank of England rate hike, to a 13-year high of 1%, put a dampener on gold investment. Outflows elsewhere in the region were trivial as interest rates remained firmly negative, and geopolitical uncertainty remained heightened due to the prolonged war in Ukraine. The ECB is seen hiking at its Jul

9、y meeting, which may cast a cloud over ETF investment in the region in the meantime. Minor outflows in Asia were again largely reflective of China, which lost 2t (US$116mn). The modest recovery in the CSI300 stock index in May halting the almost consistent year-to-date slide may have contributed to

10、outflows from ETFs by whetting investors risk appetite. Indian gold ETFs witnessed small net inflows (0.4t) in May, primarily due to the macro backdrop of higher inflation and a depreciating Rupee. Outflows from ETFs listed in Other regions were barely changed, as marginal inflows into Australian-li

11、sted funds partly offset fractional outflows in South Africa. Gold trading volumes and futures demand fall Average gold daily trading volumes recovered in May, back up to US$137bn, a slight increase on last years daily average of US$130bn. The largest monthly increases came from futures trading on C

12、OMEX and the LBMA trade data component of OTC activity. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for Comex, net long positioning fell again during the month, down to 563.5t as of 23rd May, the lowest since September last year1. This supports the results of our Gold Return Attributi

13、on Model (GRAM), which indicates that momentum was a key contributor to negative gold returns in May. Gold ETF commentary | May outflows partially reversed recent gains in global gold ETFs 02 Regional flows2All regions saw outflows in May, with North America seeing the largest drop in holdings. Nort

14、h American funds had outflows of 34t (US$2bn, -1.7%)European funds dropped 17t (US$1bn, -1%)Funds listed in Asia had outflows of 1.3t (US$77mn, -1%)Funds in other regions lost 0.4t (US$21mn, -0.6%).Table 1: May regional flows* Total AUM (bn) Flows (tonnes) Flows (US$mn) Flows (% AUM) North America 1

15、15.6 -34.2-2,011.5-1.65%Europe 99.5 -17.4-1,029.8-0.99%Asia 7.5 -1.3-76.6-0.98%Other 3.7 -0.4-21.2-0.55%Total 226.3 -53.2-3,139.2-1.32%*As of 31 May 2022. Global inflows refers to the sum of changes of all funds that saw a net increase in ounces held over a given period (e.g., month, quarter, etc.).

16、 Conversely, global outflows aggregates changes from funds that saw ounces held decline over the same period. Please note that the estimates for US dollar flows and the equivalency for changes in tonnes may diverge due to differences in the methodology used to compute each metric. For moreinformatio

17、n, see ETF Flows Data Methodology.Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 2 We calculate gold-backed ETF flows both in ounces/tonnes of gold and in US dollars because these two metrics are relevant in understanding funds performance. The change in tonnes gives a direct measure of how holdings evolve,

18、while the dollar value of flows is a finance-industry standard that gives a perspective on how much investment reaches the funds. We have made a few adjustments and improvements to our calculation methodology as of 1 July 2021 that will impact historical and future data. Specifically, we revised the

19、 methodology used to estimate changes in gold holdings as described below: Previously, changes in tonnes were calculated by converting a funds AUM (in USD) into gold holdings (in tonnes) and computing the difference over periods. However, currency movements and large daily and weekly gold price move

20、ments could distort the difference between tonnage change and US-dollar fund flows during short time horizons. We therefore adjusted Table 2: Flows by country* Country Total AUM (US$mn) Holdings tonnes May Flows (US$mn) 2022 YTD Flows US 111,273 1,882.3 -1,961.49,924.9 UK 47,077 796.4 -855.64,960.9

21、Germany 25,616 433.3 -37.31,940.7 Switzerland 20,963 354.6 -23.8-299.2France 4,799 81.2 -117.8819.2 Canada 4,316 73.0 -50.1-293.5China P.R. Mainland 3,378 56.6 -115.9 -1,099.3Australia 2,585 43.7 21.4 177.6 India 2,547 38.9 25.9 83.3 Japan 1,372 23.1 13.1 20.8 South Africa 1,034 17.5 -40.9-38.7Irela

22、nd 605 10.2 22.2 334.8 Italy 370 6.3 -19.6-7.9Hong Kong SAR 232 3.9 0.0 -8.8Turkey 57 1.0 1.6 -10.3Liechtenstein 40 0.7 2.1 -6.2Saudi Arabia 22 0.4 -3.3-4.4Malaysia 13 0.2 0.3 -1.2*As of 31 May 2022. Global inflows refers to the sum of changes of all funds that saw a net increase in ounces held over

23、 a given period (eg, month, quarter, etc.). Conversely, global outflows aggregates changes from funds that saw ounces held decline over the same period. Please note that the estimates for US dollar flows and the equivalency for changes in tonnes may diverge due differences in the methodology used to

24、 compute each metric. For moreinformation, see ETF Flows Data Methodology. Please note that theestimates for US dollar flows and the equivalency for changes in tonnes may diverge due to differences in the methodology used to compute each metric. For more information, see ETF Flows Data Methodology.S

25、ource: Bloomberg, World Gold Council tonnage change as a function of fund flows versus AUM and replaced the tonnage change field with fund flows (tonnes). Now, for most funds, we estimate US-dollar fund flows, as described insection 2.3.2 below, and then convert those flows to fund flows (tonnes). F

26、und flows (tonnes) and US-dollar fund flows will now represent a more aligned explanation of investment demand for gold ETFs, while the trueholdings of a fund, in US dollars and tonnage, will remain a close estimate, impacted by the currency and price volatility described above. Based on our initial

27、 analysis, the changes are not likely to have a material long-term effect on historical information, particularly on a global or regional aggregate basis, but will adjust short-term fluctuations that can sometimes occur due to input data and timing variations. Gold ETF commentary | May outflows part

28、ially reversed recent gains in global gold ETFs 03 Individual flows (May) In Europe, the funds with the largest outflows were iShares Physical Gold and Invesco Physical Gold (UK), while SPDR Gold Shares, Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF and iShares Gold Trust Micro led US outflows. In North America,

29、SPDR Gold Shares had outflows of 26t (-US$1.5bn, -2.3%), while iShares Gold Trust lost 1.2t (-US$70mn, -0.2%). In the low-cost space, SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust and Aberdeen Gold Trust each saw minor losses, of 0.6t (-US$33mn, -0.6%) and 0.9t (-US$53mn, -1.9%) respectively In Europe, iShares Physica

30、l Gold shed 9.5t (-US$564mn, -3.2%), Invesco Physical Gold saw outflows of 6.3t (-US$373mn, -2.2%) and Amundi Physical Gold lost 2.0 (-US$118mn, -2.3%) In Asia, Chinese ETF Huaan Yifu Gold lost 1.5t (-US$93mn, -5.5%), with minimal flows in other funds across the region. Table 3: May individual top a

31、nd bottom flows* Top 10 flows Country Change tonnes Flows (US$mn) Flows (% AUM) WisdomTree Core Physical Gold GB 3.1 186.0 39.7% UBS ETF CH-Gold EUR hedged EUR A-dis CH 1.3 74.2 16.7% Xtrackers IE Physical Gold EUR Hedged ETC DE 1.0 59.7 9.7% Xtrackers Physical Gold Euro Hedged ETC DE 0.5 32.1 1.6%

32、Invesco Physical Gold EUR Hedged ETC DE 0.5 30.2 10.4% iShares Gold CH CH 0.5 26.5 3.6% Royal Mint Physical Gold ETC IE 0.4 22.2 3.7% iShares Gold Bullion ETF CA 0.4 21.9 2.6% Sprott Physical Gold Trust US 0.3 14.9 0.2% ETFS Metal Securities Australia Ltd - ETFS Physical Gold AU 0.2 13.8 0.7% Bottom

33、 10 Flows Country Change tonnes Flows (US$mn) Flows (% AUM) SPDR Gold Shares US -26.2 -1,543.3 -2.3% iShares Physical Gold ETC GB -9.5 -564.3 -3.2% Invesco Physical Gold ETC GB -6.3 -373.3 -2.2% Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF US -2.5 -146.5 -20.0% iShares Gold Trust Micro US -2.2 -131.3 -10.4% Amun

34、di Physical Gold ETC FR -2.0 -117.8 -2.3% Huaan Yifu Gold ETF CN -1.5 -92.6 -5.5% WisdomTree Physical Gold GB -1.3 -74.5 -1.3% iShares Gold Trust US -1.2 -69.8 -0.2% CI Gold Bullion Fund CA -1.1 -64.3 -66.6% Long-term trends Gold ETFs partially reversed recent gains with outflows in May Despite the

35、biggest monthly outflows in over a year, global holdings of gold ETFs are up 8% year-to-date and around 3% (99t) below the November 2020 peak of 3,922t Year-to-date, North American- and European-listed funds have absorbed a combined 278t of inflows and AUM in both regions is around 9% higher. In con

36、trast, holdings of Asian-listed funds are 17t lower y-t-d, due to sizable outflows in China. Table 4: Y-t-d regional flows* Total AUM (bn) Flows (tonnes) Flows (US$mn) Flows (% AUM) North America 115.6 154.2 9,631.4 9.14% Europe 99.5 123.3 7,742.3 8.43% Asia 7.5 -17.1 -1,005.2 -11.94% Other 3.7 2.0

37、124.2 3.52% Total 226.3 262.4 16,492.6 7.88% *As of 31 May 2022. Global inflows refers to the sum of changes of all funds that saw a net increase in ounces held over a given period (eg, month, quarter, etc.). Conversely, global outflows aggregates changes from funds that saw ounces held decline over

38、 the same period. Please note that the estimates for US dollar flows and the equivalency for changes in tonnes may diverge due differences in the methodology used to compute each metric. For more information, see ETF Flows Data Methodology. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Gold ETF commentary |

39、 May outflows partially reversed recent gains in global gold ETFs 04 Relevant Charts Chart 1: Gold-backed ETFs (and similar) flows by month* Chart 2: Gold-backed ETFs (and similar) change in holdings by year* *As of 31 May 2022. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council *As of 31 May 2022. Source: Bloom

40、berg, World Gold Council Chart 3: Gold-backed ETFs (and similar) change in holdings by month* Chart 4: Gold-backed ETFs (and similar) change in holdings by year* *As of 31 May 2022. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council *As of 31 May 2022. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council -8-6-4-202468101214Feb

41、-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22US$bnNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaOther-250-200-150-0200250300-50-40-30-20-50602003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021US$bnUS$bnNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaOtherTotal (rhs)-150-0200250Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-2

42、1 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22TonnesNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaOther-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,000-1,200-1,000-800-600-6008001,00020022005200820020TonnesTonnesNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaOtherTotal (rhs) Gold ETF commentary | May outflows partially reve

43、rsed recent gains in global gold ETFs 05 Chart 5: Gold-backed ETFs (and similar) holdings* Chart 6: Gold-backed ETFs (and similar) holdings* *As of 31 May 2022. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council *As of 31 May 2022. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000050

44、0300Dec-02Oct-05Aug-08Jun-11Apr-14Feb-17Dec-19US$/ozUS$bnNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaOtherGold, US$/oz05001,0001,5002,0002,50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500Dec-02 Oct-05 Aug-08 Jun-11Apr-14 Feb-17 Dec-19US$/ozTonnesNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaOtherGold, US$/oz Gold ETF commentary | May outflows

45、partially reversed recent gains in global gold ETFs 06 Notes Gold-backed ETFs and similar products account for a significant part of the gold market, with institutional and individual investors using them to implement many of their investment strategies. The data on this page tracks gold held in phy

46、sical form by open-ended ETFs and other products such as closed-end funds, and mutual funds. Most funds included in this list are fully backed by physical gold. While a few funds allow exposure to gold through other holdings such as cash or derivatives, we only monitor those investing at least 90% t

47、hrough physical gold and appropriately adjust their reported assets to estimate physical holdings only. Similarly, the data only estimates the corresponding gold holdings of ETFs that include other precious metals. For funds that include physical holdings of multiple precious metals, the total AUM d

48、epicted for such funds is lower than their actual total AUM. Definitions Flows represent net creations or redemptions of shares of open-ended ETFs, or changes to the physical gold holdings that back shares of closed-end funds or similar products over a given period. ETF flows in tonnes measure deman

49、d for gold during a given period and generate the quarterly demand estimates reported in Gold Demand Trends. ETF flows in US dollars estimate the monetary value of gold demand for a given period, considering daily fluctuations in the price of gold. Holdings correspond to the total assets under manag

50、ement (AUM) of gold-backed ETFs and similar products (other than funds holding more than one precious metal), measured in either tonnes or US dollars. Where tonnage holdings are not directly reported, we calculate these by dividing the US dollar value of AUM by the LBMA Gold Price (or for China and

51、India, using a local index for price) per tonne where one tonne is equivalent to 32,150.7466 Troy ounces. Note: We calculate gold-backed ETF flows both in ounces/tonnes of gold and in US dollars because these two metrics are relevant in understanding funds performance. The change in tonnes gives a d

52、irect measure of how holdings evolve, while the dollar value of flows is a finance industry standard that gives a perspective of how much investment reaches the funds. There are some months where the reported flows measured in tonnes of gold and their dollar-value equivalent seem inconsistent across

53、 regions. Both figures are correct. The disparity is due to the interaction between the performance of the gold price intra-month, the direction and movement of the US dollar and the timing of the flows. For example, hypothetically, if European funds were to experience outflows early in the month wh

54、en the price of gold was low but gained assets later in the month when the price of gold increased, and/or if the euro/dollar currency rate moved meaningfully when there were flows, there might be a discrepancy between tonnage change and flows. Gold ETF commentary | May outflows partially reversed r

55、ecent gains in global gold ETFs 07 About the World Gold Council Were the global experts on gold. Leveraging our broad knowledge and experience, we work to improve understanding of the gold market and underscore golds value to individuals, investors, and the world at large. Collaboration is the corne

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57、, expand access to gold, and tackle barriers to adoption to stimulate demand and support a vibrant and sustainable future for the gold market. From our offices in Beijing, London, Mumbai, New York, Shanghai, and Singapore, we deliver positive impact worldwide. World Gold Council 7th Floor, 15 Fetter

58、 Lane London EC4A 1BW United Kingdom T +44 20 7826 4700 F +44 20 7826 4799 W www.gold.org For more information Research and Strategy Adam Perlaky adam.perlakygold.org +1 212 317 3824 Johan Palmberg johan.palmberggold.org +44 20 7826 4786 Krishan Gopaul krishan.gopaulgold.org +44 20 7826 4704 Louise

59、Street louise.streetgold.org +44 20 7826 4765 Mukesh Kumar mukesh.kumargold.org +91 22 317 3826 Ray Jia ray.jiagold.org +86 21 2226 1107 Juan Carlos Artigas Head of Research juancarlos.artigasgold.org +1 212 317 3826 John Reade Chief Market Strategist john.readegold.org +44 20 7826 4760 Important in

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