1、 / SARS SARS 2020 EPS PE 2018A 2019E 2020E 2018A 2019E 2020E 28.53 0.37 0.58 0.82 77.26 49.19 34.79 60.75 0.61 1.04 1.35 100.02 58.51 45.10 7.45 0.07 0.14 0.21 106.46 53.23 35.49 26.09 0.81 0.26 0.64 32.29 100.55 40.82 -6% 1% 8% 15% 22% 2019/2 2019/3 2019/4 2019/5 2019/6 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019/10

2、 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1 % 1M 3M 12M -6.81% 4.01% 4.85% -4.95% -1.15% -17.27% 134 22199 19729 9.72 1.85 21180 2029 % 79.86 2020-02-16 : 2020-02-02 20191-11 2019-12-17 S0550519080009 S0550118070032 S0550119080063 2020-02-20 2 / 30 1. . 5 1.1.5 1.2.7 1.3. 11 1.4. 11

3、1.5. 11 2. . 12 2.1.12 2.2.14 2.3.14 2.4.16 2.5.19 2.6.20 2.7.22 3.2020. 22 3.1.22 3.2.6098.HK .25 3.3.6049.HK .26 3.4.1995.HK .27 3.5.001914.SZ .28 3 / 30 1. 6 2 . 7 3. 7 4 . 10 5 . 10 6 .11 7 .11 8 .11 9 .11 10. 13 11 . 13 12&. 13 13“” . 13 14“” . 14 15. 14 16top10 . 14 17. 15 18 . 16 19 . 16 20.

4、16 21 . 16 22SARS . 17 23 . 17 24 . 18 25 . 18 26. 19 27ROE . 20 28 . 20 29. 21 30 . 21 31 . 21 32 . 21 33. 22 34PE-TTM . 23 352020. 23 362020 . 23 372020 . 23 38. 26 39 . 26 40 . 28 41. 28 4 / 30 1 . 6 2 . 7 3 . 8 4 . 8 5. 9 6218 . 10 7 . 12 8 . 15 9 . 18 10WM.N . 20 11 . 25 12 . 26 13 . 27 14 . 28

5、 5 / 30 1. 1.1. 2 1 20192.98 17%2 6 / 30 1 1 124-225 35-40 125-22 125-331 125-29 21-229 125-213 13 7 / 30 2 3 1.2. 2% 2 2016 2017 2018 2019H1 1156.84 54.2% 1571.32 59.1% 1879.71 55.6% 1194.66 55.4% 509.38 23.9% 605.70 22.7% 818.32 24.3% 519.12 24.1% 199.37 9.3% 241.65 9.1% 315.77 9.3% 169.71 7.9% 38

6、.84 1.8% 53.48 2.0% 74.01 2.2% 149.48 6.9% 11.42 0.5% 12.19 0.5% 20.43 0.6% 12.82 0.6% 63.71 3.0% 16.40 0.6% 20.72 0.6% 14.01 0.7% 156.18 7.3% 158.82 6.0% 249.15 7.4% 95.71 4.4% 2135.72 100.0% 2659.54 100.0% 3378.10 100.0% 2155.50 100.0% 8 / 30 3 2016 2017 2018 2019H1 41037.57 86.0% 52445.39 87.0% 6

7、1127.76 87.6% 33571.91 87.1% 1894.32 4.0% 7156.37 11.9% 1959.75 2.8% 1154.50 3.0% - - - - - - 27.49 0.1% - - 1789.20 3.0% 524.12 0.8% 16.04 0.0% 879.75 1.8% 983.63 1.6% 1227.45 1.8% 748.06 1.9% 2219.00 4.7% 2968.54 4.9% 2879.03 4.1% 1577.95 4.1% 778.64 1.6% 902.55 1.5% 992.66 1.4% 565.04 1.5% 740.17

8、 1.6% 709.84 1.2% 563.62 0.8% 223.53 0.6% 768.81 1.6% 460.55 0.8% 689.87 1.0% 459.73 1.2% 401.41 0.8% 638.13 1.1% 807.26 1.2% 472.73 1.2% 412.43 0.9% 522.94 0.9% 583.50 0.8% 338.45 0.9% 52.96 0.1% 71.04 0.1% 56.44 0.1% 28.43 0.1% 144.94 0.3% 194.72 0.3% 292.26 0.4% 170.74 0.4% 107.99 0.2% 200.57 0.3

9、% 238.23 0.3% 184.74 0.5% 176.29 0.4% 211.30 0.4% 299.27 0.4% 195.40 0.5% 47719.96 100.0% 60309.21 100.0% 69757.35 100.0% 38536.71 100.0% 2810 0.5 0.5 4 2/7 9080-90 90%/70%10/5 2/10 0.5 2/8 0.5 9 / 30 5 10 / 30 218 26 2426 13%-14% 60%2 410% 0.7-1 6218 4 5 11 / 30 6 7 1.3. 2 2019 1.85201919%2.85 2019

10、17% 8 9 1.4. 220 1.5. 12 / 30 7 2. 2.1. 13 / 30 10 11 12& 13 14 / 30 2.2. 14 2.3. TOP10 11.35%19H1 15.4%2837 1 2 15 16top10 15 / 30 12 3 1 30%220% 50% 17 2003SARS 50% 30%20% 8 26/4/2018 30/06/1997 5% - 20% 30% 30% 50% 20% 10% 50% 50% 16 / 30 18 19 2005.03 2005.06 201540000 7000 20 21 2.4. 2003SAR300

11、 USARS 17 / 30 22SARS SARS 03 23 18 / 30 2003 7002009-20171.02440 24 25 2005.03 2005.06 20197 9 2017.04.25 2017.7.24 2017.12.8 2018.4.23 2018.7.31 2018.10.31 2018.12.13 2019.4.19 19 / 30 2019.7.30 2.5. 26 ROE 2018WM.N RSG60% 30%60% 70% 20 / 30 27ROE 28 Wind Wind 10WM.N 2016 2017 2018

12、2410 28.40% 2500 27.71% 2703 29.22% 974 11.48% 996 11.04% 1105 11.95% 1076 12.68% 1170 12.97% 1255 13.57% 1193 14.06% 1236 13.70% 1375 14.87% COGS 858 10.11% 969 10.74% 783 8.47% 300 3.54% 375 4.16% 409 4.42% 702 8.27% 753 8.35% 598 6.47% 352 4.15% 328 3.64% 598 6.47% 192 2.26% 219 2.43% 235 2.54% 4

13、29 5.06% 475 5.27% 455 4.92% 8486 100.00% 9021 100.00% 9249 100.00% WM.N 2.6. 20182018 99743433009943639 0977 254814429017 1083110613 20005000 200212 80% 11% 21 / 30 202050 29 30 31 32 22 / 30 2.7. 19 3. 2020 3.1. 217 19.32 1312 1723.25%7.14% 33 ,Wind 217 52202033.46 202045 23 / 30 34PE-T

14、TM 352020 Wind Wind A 50%32% 362020 372020 Wind Wind 2020 1. 122019 2021 2019-21CAGR30% 2. 19H1 21.6 202019 3. 24 / 30 4. 5. A 25 / 30 3.2. 201920191231 201850% 120192 2018H1/18/19H120% 201912 55226237.72018 10%6% 20197425.4 2256 2019H1,2.17 5.84 201920202021EPS0.580.82 1.11PE49.234.825.7 11 Wind202

15、0218 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 3,122 4,675 7,335 10,499 14,554 (+/-)% 32.37% 49.76% 56.88% 43.14% 38.63% 402 923 1,563 2,211 3,009 (+/-)% 23.92% 129.79% 69.32% 41.43% 36.10% 0.16 0.37 0.58 0.82 1.11 177.82 77.26 49.19 34.79 25.70 54.51 34.26 16.39 13.87 11.71 (%) 30.65% 44.28% 33.07% 39.58% 45.4

16、8% (%) - 0.44% 0.68% 0.96% 1.31% () 2500 2500 2710.89 2710.89 2710.89 26 / 30 3.3. 2019H1, 1.120.73/ 1.6620180.03 2 2019H1 1.481.21 38 39 2019-2021EPS1.041.351.72PE 58.545.135.2 12 Wind2020218 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 3,240 4,229 5,906 7,984 10,381 (+/-)% 26.37% 30.52% 39.66% 35.18% 30.02% 220

17、328 567 737 946 (+/-)% 51.01% 49.33% 71.26% 29.49% 28.02% 0.42 0.63 1.04 1.35 1.72 139.41 100.02 58.51 45.10 35.25 81.26 48.26 37.02 36.30 35.59 (%) 58.29% 51.69% 65.46% 83.11% 104.31% () 533.33 533.33 553.33 553.33 553.33 27 / 30 3.4. 64900 900126750 86202000 340061008700 2019 20%43% 49%

18、29%20183.25pct6.71pct 2 201920202021EPS0.140.210.27 PE53.235.527.6 13 Wind2020218 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 725 1,076 1,599 2,227 2,575 (+/-)% 51.12% 45.94% 74.25% 46.13% 31.30% 76 100 217 317 417 (+/-)% 127.50% 31.14% 116.59% 46.10% 31.32% 0.05 0.07 0.14 0.21 0.27 138.53 106.46 53.23 35.49 27.6

19、0 43.28 11.78 9.72 8.84 8.03 (%) 31.24% 11.15% 19.45% 25.84% 30.85% () 1500 1500 1536.4 1536.4 1536.4 28 / 30 3.5. A A 2019 2.6-3.15.47-5.97 64%-70%12.4 2019 600 24638213 20192018 4.4% 40 41 2019-212.766.789.67 2019122019 2020 2020216.559.23 20202135.825.4 14 Wind2020218 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021

20、E 5,893 6,656 6,888 10,730 12,918 (+/-)% -6.89% 12.94% 3.49% 55.77% 20.39% 151 857 275 678 967 (+/-)% -6.74% 468.85% -67.88% 146.35% 42.64% 0.14 0.81 0.26 0.64 0.91 183.71 32.29 100.55 40.82 28.61 6.62 5.71 5.50 4.95 4.33 (%) 3.60% 17.69% 5.47% 12.14% 15.13% () 3.15% 2.38% 0.61% 0.81% 1.08% 29 / 30

21、320172018 22019“”2 20182 2019 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 30 / 30 400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 chen_ L

22、 liu_ C