1、Anthony HobleyAnthony HobleyChief Executive, Carbon Tracker InitiativeCarbon Tracker Initiative首席执行官July 17, 20172017年7月17日carbonbubbleA Changing Climate and the Financial Risk for Fossil Fuels气候变化与化石燃料的金融风险Who is Carbon Tracker? Carbon Tracker(碳追踪)是谁？2IdentityIdentity身份身份An independent non-profit f

2、inancial think tank funded by EU and US foundations.欧盟和美国的基金会出资成立运营的一个独立非营利性金融智库MissionMission使命使命Demonstrate the financial case for the transition of the fossil fuel sector in line with 2C.论证与2C目标相符的化石燃料行业转型的金融理据VisionVision愿景愿景To enable a 2C-aligned global energy system.促成建立符合 2C 目标的全球能源体系Sustaina

3、bility at the heart of challenges for 21st Century可持续性是21世纪面临的挑战的核心The environment is at the centre of our future and driving change: 环境是我们未来的重心，正在推动变革：Ambitious policy at internationalinternational (Paris Agreement) and nationalnational (“Ecological Civilization”) levels国际层面（巴黎协议）和国家层面（“生态文明建设”）的宏大

4、政策Rapid technologicaltechnological development快速的技术发展Financial markets waking up to the problem?金融市场开始意识到这个问题？3Private sector has central role私营部门发挥核心作用A green transition requires deployment of capital away from “brown” towards “green” sources of energy. 绿色转型要求把资本部署从“棕色”转向“绿色”来源的能源This requires unde

5、rstanding the opportunitiesopportunities on the green side and the risksrisks to the brown side. 这要求理解绿色侧的机会机会和棕色侧的风险风险41.Policy targets provide a framework for understanding the financial risks政策目标提供理解金融风险的框架Misalignment at the macro-level宏观层面错位6Company-level impact公司层面影响Our carbon supply cost curv

6、es follow economic logic of efficient capital allocation我们的碳供给成本曲线符合高效资本配置的经济学逻辑7Some companies better prepared than others有些公司准备比其他公司充分8Government plans indicate changes to fuel mix政府规划显示燃料结构的变化Environmental targets have local implications.环境目标具有本地影响Policy ambition can provide important market sign

7、als.政策抱负可以折射出重要市场信号92.Technological disruption may surprise incumbents and investors技术颠覆可能会令在位者和投资者吃惊Demand mismatch sets up potential misread需求不匹配引起潜在的误读11Different assumptions tell a different story不同假设得出不同结论12Solar PV could supply 23% of global power by 2040 and 29% by 2050太阳能光伏到2040年可以提供全球电力的23%

8、，到2050年达到29%Electric vehicles could provide 35% of road transport by 2035 and over 66% by 2050电动车到2035年占公路交通的35%，到2050年超过66%Coal demand peak in 2020煤炭需求到2020年达到最高水平Oil demand peak in 2020石油需求到2020年达到最高水平Gas demand curtailed燃气需求减少3.Addressing the challenges of the transition through disclosure and tr

9、ansparency通过披露和透明应对转型带来的挑战Disclosure shines light on risks披露揭示风险Investors focus on the futurefuture. They will shift capital where there is a financial justification. Key needs: 投资者面向未来未来。他们将把资本转向具有金融合理性的地方。关键需求：Translate climate policy into impact on company assets (scenario analysis).把气候政策转化成对公司资产

10、的影响（情景分析）Improve disclosure of the assumptions underpinning company forecasts to allow investors to scrutinize them. 改进支持公司预测的假设的披露，便于投资者仔细分析。14There is a financial case for oil & gas companies to wind-down存在油气公司逐步退出的金融理据15Concluding thoughts结论Private sector and markets will play a key role in devel

11、oping a sustainable energy system. 私营部门和市场将在发展可持续能源体系中发挥关键作用Investors are forward looking, but require true pricing of market risks to deploy capital.投资者具备前瞻性的视野，但是要求获得市场风险的真正定价以部署资本 。 Improved disclosure can make a market in climate risk 改进披露可以建立一个气候风险市场16Thank You.谢谢！Anthony HobleyAnthony HobleyChief Executive, Carbon Tracker InitiativeCarbon Tracker Initiative首席执行官ahobleycarbontracker.orgwww.carbontracker.orgcarbonbubble17