1、 / 14nmFinFET 2019Q32019Q41%12nm 28nm 2019912 642019Q3 2020645/20215 /641282019 9 02 01 1N2017-2020 14%2% 25%PVD17%CVD 2%CMP14%22% 3%01 128 67% 17%10%6% EPS PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 166.24 0.63 1.01 1.48 263.87 164.59 112.32 218.50 0.35 0.52 0.72 624.29 417.38 303.47 24.58 0.50 0.74 0.

2、99 49.16 33.22 24.83 287.39 1.67 2.26 3.01 172.09 127.16 95.48 22.30 0.43 0.63 0.86 51.86 35.40 25.93 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019/10 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5 2020/6 % 1M 3M 12M 6.38% 10.21% 5.52% -1.85% -3.97% -2.23% 378 26553 18199 32.70 1.87 13154 557 % 5

3、4.21 1N 2020-06-22 2020-05-18 2020-04-13 S0550516090002 (021)20361113 S0550519080002 (021)20363254 zhu_ 2020-06-30 2 / 31 1. . 3 2. . 4 2.1. . 4 2.2. + . 5 2.3. . 5 3. . 7 3.1. . 7 3.2. 14nm202058% . 9 3.3. 28nm . 12 3.4. 643/128 . 13 4. 1N . 14 4.1. . 14 4.2. . 15 4.3. . 22 4.4. . 24 4.5. . 24 4.6.

4、 . 25 4.7. ATESOC . 26 4.8. STI. 27 4.9. . 28 3 / 31 1. 2016/2017 3-4 246,800 1 14nmFinFET 2019 2019Q41%12nm 202031.6058% 228nm14nm 20202019912 55nm 3642019Q32020 645/20215/64128 420199DRAM 10nm8Gb DDR412 02 14nm 011N %2% 25%PVD17%CVD 2%CMP14% 22%3% 01128 1N 13875000 67%17%10%6% 4 / 31 2.

5、 2.1. 2050 AMD 2070 80 1987 2090 DRAM DRAM 90 PC 21 PC 5 / 31 1 1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s20 PC)/5G/AI/IoT MPU)DRAM ASIC& DRAMSOC) 2.2. 20142020 20%2030 16/14nm 2025 51002030 150202514nm 20149 1,3875000 2.3. 2016/20173-4 24 6,800 6 / 31 1 7 / 31 3. 3.1. 10nm-7nm-5nm 5GAIIoT IC 28nm-14nm-10

6、nm7nm-5nm-3nm 7nm-5nm-3nm 20187nm20205nm 7nm2019 7nm355nm2019 20203nm 202063nm10 5nm20194 5nm2020 5nm 20205nm3nm GAAFET3nm2021 GAAFinFET FinFET5nm3nm35% 50%30%20213nm 20223nm 14nm/12nm FinFET22nmFD-SOI2019 12nm FD-SOI16nm FinFET12nm50% 10nm FinFET7nm5nm 3nm 14nm/12nm FinFET12nmFD-SOI 12nm FD-SOI Int

7、el201910nm10nm7nmIntel Intel intel20217nm 202220237nm+5nm2021 8 / 31 EUVDRAM DRAM2020DDR5 10nm16GB32GB 14nmFinFET 201920191% 202014nm1.3% 2020619A14 1420040% (14nm) 14FinFET 143.5 60003.5 2020 14nm 12nm202012nm FinFET 14nm 28nm14nm 202014nm 2019912 55nm12 NANDDRAM 3D NAND 24030 642019 961282020 4128

8、QLC 3D NAND202064 5/12820215/ 6412810 2020620 20199DRAM 10nm8Gb DDR4 12 2020DDR4LPDDR4 DRAM DDR5LPDDR5GDDR6 9 / 31 28nm/14nm7nm/5nm 2 3.2. 10 / 31 0.35m14 20010.18m 2014128nm 28 28nm2015314nm FinFET 1819 1120202014 202016 14nm 177nm192 14nm FinFET12nm FinFET 2 2001 0.18m 2012Q3 28nm 2013.9 28nm 40nm

9、 2014.1 28nm 2015.3 14nm FinFET 2017.3 CEO177nm 2018Q2 14nm FinFET 28nm HKC+ 28nm HKC 2018Q4 14nm FinFET 12nm FinFET 2019.02 14nm FinFET 2019.03 28nm HKC+ 2019Q1 12nm FinFET 2019Q2 FinFET N+1 14nm 2019.11 14nm FinFET 14nm FinFET 2020Q1 14nm FinFET 2020Q2 A14nm 2018 447,7502019448,5008 300mm300mm 830

10、 11 / 31 3 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 200mm109,000 108,000 106,000 109,000 112,000 115,000 112,000 115,000 115,000 300mm38,250 38,250 33,750 22,500 22,500 18,000 18,000 4,500 4,500 300mm103,500 96,750 94,500 94,500 105,750 112,500 112,500 117,000 117,000 200mm500,

11、000 50,000 53,000 60,000 58,000 57,000 58,000 58,000 63,000 200mm35,000 35,000 40,300 42,000 45,000 50,000 52,000 55,000 55,000 300mm6,750 6,750 6,750 6,750 6,750 6,750 6,750 - 300mm 65,250 72,000 74,250 74,250 74,250 81,000 84,600 92,250 112,500 300mm - - - - - - - 6,750 9,000 300mm 40,000 42,325 4

12、2,325 42,325 42,325 42,325 - - 476,000 447,750 449,075 450,875 451,325 466,575 482,575 443,850 448,500 115,000 90% 20124.99201920 21.94%202031.60 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E - 6.51 9.59 14.05 26.26 24.58 17.56 18.78 42.00 -84.55% 94.49% 89.08% 97.46% 98.81% 75.47% 93.91% 98.59% -

13、 1.19 0.559 1.722 0.685 0.295 5.71 1.218 0.60 -15.45% 5.51% 10.92% 2.54% 1.19% 24.53% 6.09% 1.41% 4.99 7.70 10.14 15.77 26.95 24.88 23.27 20.00 42.60 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 201914nm 1%55 65nm0.15 0.18 31%35% 5 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 6

14、.80% 5.70% 7.50% 6.40% 5.10% 4.60% 5.60% 5.50% 5.10% 33.60% 40.30% 46.30% 44.70% 43.00% 48.90% 46.10% 44.40% 48.90% 12 / 31 35.60% 37.10% 32.50% 32.10% 32.50% 31.10% 34.90% 38.10% 35.40% 8.50% 7.40% 7.50% 8.00% 9.80% 6.70% 4.80% 3.10% 2.90% 15.50% 9.50% 6.20% 8.80% 9.60% 8.70% 8.60% 8.90% 7.70% 2018

15、Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 83.50% 90.00% 94.40% 93.20% 94.20% 93.90% 92.50% 91.60% 91.10% 16.50% 10.00% 5.60% 6.80% 5.80% 6.10% 7.50% 8.40% 8.90% 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 28.60% 33.00% 33.00% 31.70% 32.30% 27.50% 24.70% 22.20% 25.

16、50% 62.40% 58.60% 57.90% 57.50% 53.90% 56.90% 60.50% 65.10% 61.60% 9.00% 8.40% 9.10% 10.80% 13.80% 15.60% 14.80% 12.70% 12.90% 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 14nm 1.00% 1.30% 28nm 3.20% 8.60% 7.10% 5.40% 3.00% 3.80% 4.30% 5.00% 6.50% 40/45 nm 21.70% 17.50% 18.70% 20.3

17、0% 15.30% 19.20% 18.50% 16.20% 14.90% 55/65 nm 20.90% 24.20% 21.00% 23.00% 21.80% 26.20% 29.30% 31.00% 32.60% 90 nm 3.80% 1.20% 1.40% 1.70% 2.20% 1.70% 1.30% 1.50% 1.60% 0.11/0.13 7.60% 7.60% 8.70% 7.30% 7.40% 6.50% 6.60% 6.20% 5.40% 0.15/0.18 38.90% 37.10% 39.50% 38.70% 46.00% 38.60% 35.80% 35.00%

18、33.40% 0.25/0.35 3.90% 3.80% 3.60% 3.60% 4.30% 4.00% 4.20% 4.10% 4.30% 3.3. 909 820909 38712 20181028nm 4 6 12 2017.08 2018.02 2018.03 2018.12 F1 2019.06 2019.09 12 10025 13 / 31 14 12 2016 12 2018 05 2018 101228 387 4 3.4. NAND 7 3D NAND 2016.12 2016.12 2017.07 323D NAND 2017.09 2017.11 323D NAND 2

19、018.04 20 2018Q4 323D NAND 2019Q1 50003000 2019.09 643D NAND 2020.01 1030 202032020Q45 14 / 31 4. 1N 4.1. 2019597.6 7.4%134.52.7%2005 201923% 13% 5% 3 4 4% 6% 7%6% 6% 9% 8% 7% 11%12% 13% 16%15% 20% 23% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 200 400 600 800 15% 9% 7% 27% 16% 20% 6% Wind Wind 80% 75% 24%23%18% 7nm5n

20、m 14nm 15 / 31 5 6 SEMI SEMI SEMI 20 50107100 7 8 SEMI SEMI 4.2. 01 PVDCVDCMP 1281N %13%TEL 13%17%-2020 25%63%75%0%TEL 0%16%2017-2018 2019-2020TEL21% 16 / 31 92017-2018 102019-2020 25% 75% 63% 21% 16% 0% TEL %AMA T13%TEL 57%5%-2020TEL 73%52%0%33% AMA T

21、27%8%2017-2018TEL AMA T2019-2020TEL 39% 112017-2018 122019-2020 73% 27% TEL AMAT 53% 33% 8% 6% TEL AMAT 2017-2020TEL74% 26%-2020TEL 94%45% 17 / 31 132017-2018 142019-2020 94% 6% TEL 45% 55% TEL 2017-2020ASML72% CANON28%2017-2018 2019-2020ASML62%83%CANON 38%17% 152017-2018 162019-2020 62

22、% 38% ASML CANON 83% 17% ASML CANON 2017-2020Lam Research54% 14%TEL11%AMA TScreen7%4%2% 7%-20202019-2020 4%Lam ResearchLam Research50%59% 13%15%TELAMA TScreen TEL12%9%AMA T9%5%Screen7%2% 9%6% 18 / 31 172017-2018 182019-2020 50% 13% 12% 9% 7% 0% 9% Lam Research TEL AMAT Screen 59% 15% 9%

23、 5% 2% 4% 6% Lam Research TEL AMAT Screen 2017-2020AMA T83% 14%3%-2020 2019-20205%AMA T 70%89%30%5% 192017-2018 202019-2020 70% 30% AMAT 90% 5% 5% AMAT PVD2017-2020PVDAMA T56%TEL 22%17%6%-2020 TEL2019-2020 0%8%33%AMA T67%50% 33%8% 19 / 31 212017-2018 PVD 222019-2020 PVD 67%

24、 33% AMAT 50% 34% 8% 8% AMAT TEL CVD2017-2020CVDTEL32%Lam Research 27% AMA T28%2%11%2017-2018 2019-20200%4%TEL20% 42%Lam ResearchAMA TLam Research30% 25%AMA T40%19% 232017-2018 CVD 242019-2020 CVD 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% TEL Lam Research AMAT 42% 25% 18% 4% 11% TEL Lam Research AMAT ALD2017-2020ALDKOKUSA

25、I ELECTRIC 50%TEL23%Lam Research13%11% 3%2017-2018ALDLam Research2019-2020 KOKUSAI ELECTRICTELALD 56%12%26% 20 / 31 2522017-2018 ALD 262019-2020 ALD 56% 26% 3% 12% 3% KOKUSAI ELECTRIC TEL Lam Research CMP2017-2020AMA T 86%14%-20202019-2020 CMP26% 272017-2018 282019-2020 100% AMAT 74% 26

26、% AMAT 2017-2020Screen27%22% Lam Research18%3%31%2017-2018 2019-20205%0%Lam Research24% 9%Screen33%19%19%25% 21 / 31 292017-2018 302019-2020 33% 19% 24% 5% 19% Screen Lam Research 19% 25% 9% 47% Screen Lam Research %SEMICS 32%CASCADE2%3%2017-2018 2019-2020SEMICS53% 65% SEMICS31%33% CASCAD

27、E11%0% 312017-2018 322019-2020 53% 31% 11% 5% SEMICS CASCADE 65% 33% 2% SEMICS 2017-2020NEXTEST20%Advantest21% KLA11%10%39%-2020 NEXTEST10%20%Advantest 12%28%KLAKLA 13%8%11%9% 22 / 31 332017-2018 342019-2020 9% 12% 13% 11% 55% NEXTEST SYSTEM Advantest KLA 29% 27% 8% 9% 27% NEXTEST SYSTE

28、M Advantest KLA 4.3. 20146 9 987.2400 1,387.21,20015.6% 67%17%10%6% 6% 8 % % 2015 100.00 7.21 5.00 0.36 4.00 0.29 14.59 15.00 1.08 11.98 24.00 1.73 2016 1.90 0.14 2017 14.50 1.05 9.72 28.30 2.04 5.62 2018 11.70 0.84 9.14 1.50 0.11 14.59 23 / 31 6.29 2019 0.04 0.00 - 205.94 14.85 2015 27.00 1.95 64.3

29、9 4.64 11.30 2016 6.00 0.43 43.00 3.10 32.00 116.00 8.36 18.10 1.30 2017 14.00 1.01 13.77 6.00 0.43 60.00 4.33 32 2018 60.00 4.33 27.04 26.00 1.87 33.94 2.45 5.00 0.36 10.71 0.77 10.00 0.72 500.14 36.05 2014 20.31 1.46 19 2015 5.00 0.36 10.83 0.78 18.00 1.30 21.72 2017 6.80 0.49 9.44 2018 16.09 1.16

30、 21.72 29.00 2.09 19 9.49 0.68 6.17 115.52 8.33 2014 4.80 0.35 2015 0.40 0.03 9.85 1.65 0.12 6.00 0.43 10.03 2016 2019 9.11 0.66 10.03 1.00 0.07 - 22.96 1.66 2015 5.00 0.36 2016 3.09 0.22 0.05 0.00 11.57 0.22 0.02 24 / 31 2017 5.50 0.40 5.73 2018 0.30 0.02 14.16 1.02 15 4.4. 02 14nm 011N 9 Wind20206

31、29 4.5. PVDCVD 201940.5822.10%3.09 32.24% 20209.3832.49% 0.2633.01%36.41%8.47pct 201936.36 20.57%202039.7814.15% 201940.53%2.15pct2019Q47.57% 2.25pct 31.9178.64%26.58%35.23%0.51pct 25 / 31 8.4720.88% 7.60%59.89%10.45pct 201925.936.10 0.780.5031.91 8.472.42 12 2019 PERC 5G SiCGaN PECVDPVD PVDCVD20191

32、2 PVD 65-28nm14nm Hardmask PVDAl-Pad PVDALD LPCVD 209.1+5.9+ 5IC17.8+2.2 26.45.4 110%2 28145/7 320 356450 88450 4.6. LED 26 / 31 LED 201919.4718.77%1.89 107.51%1.4841.48% 16.1683%18%2.68 14%43%0.643%4.25 21.81% 1.3334.92%0.59pct 1pct2019 35%2018 47.52%MOCVD26.33% 60.55%67.51% 20204.139.65%0.26 89.47

33、%-0.06176%33.86% 1.41pct0.4310.52% 1 657 5 23D NAND 64 1283D NDND 5/ 15%3 71X DRAM 128 3D NAND ICP ICP MOCVDMOCVDPrismo D-Blue Prismo A7 14 4 34 4 Prismo A7 LED MOCVD MOCVD MiniLED Micro LED 14-7 CCPCCP 14-7 ICPMOCVD 4.7. 27 / 31 ICSTS8200 /ICSTS8300 2,600 20192.5516.43%1.02 12.41%0.3333.89%12.83% 0

34、.6041.39% 2020 0.8542.87%0.3654.18% 81.35% 201981.81%0.34pct2019Q480.40% 1.49pct2019Q32.40pct80% 20192.35 92.43%18.86%82.24%0.28pct 0.17 6.58%14.03%82.76% 1.42pct6.23% -6.47% 33.89%-19.82% 56 23 20192600 800200 SoC 4.8. STI STI Wafer2D/3D AOISTI 20193.9984.54% 1,194 67.27% -4,289 444.51%20201.13164.

35、80% 28 / 31 446 825.32%-3,015435.56% 56 8.7%63.1%17.4%15.2% 11 35%28% 20191.07 26.82%2020 200Mbps1G 128AD9000 12 8/12 4.9. 2006 LED LED4.0 8-12 2019 35.654.4201940 48.41% 210 G12a G12 b 29 / 31 G2-G12c G12d G12 2017 152019800 600 812 12 8 a 8-12b8 c8-12 6-8 128 a 20191.38 b4.78 8 c2019 81

36、2 12 d30875/1260 /152019812 20192020 CIS 30 / 31 / 201010 2017 3 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 31 / 31 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 chen_ 021-2

37、0361258 L liu_ C