1、The WRC series Study on Socio-Economic Benefi ts of 5G Services Provided in mmWave Bands Executive Summary January 2019 Copyright 2019 GSMA The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with over 350 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, includ

2、ing handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regio

3、nal conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at . Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA. TMG is a consulting fi rm specializing in the information and communication technologies (ICT) sector. For over 25 years, TMG has assisted public and private sector entities around t

4、he world on ICT policy and regulatory matters. Our team focuses on providing insight and developing strategies to assist clients on technology and market trends, the development mobile services; spectrum policy and management; broadband and ICT strategies; economic assessments and valuations, among

5、other matters. For more information, please visit . TMG wishes to thank Pantelis Koutroumpis, lead economist at the Oxford Martin Schools Programme on Technological and Economic Change at the University of Oxford, Khuong Minh Vu, Associate Professor at the National University of Singapore, and Ferna

6、ndo Beltrn, Associate Professor with the Department of Information Systems and Operations Management at the University of Auckland Business School, for their helpful comments on this methodology. STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF 5G SERVICES PROVIDED IN MMWAVE BANDS Executive Summary 2 Global impa

7、ct 3 Recommendations 3 Regional breakdown 4 Use cases and industry verticals 7 mmWave 5G Use Cases 10 1 STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF 5G SERVICES PROVIDED IN MMWAVE BANDS Contents Executive Summary 2 Mobile networks are an essential part of our everyday lives. They increase our working product

8、ivity, represent a central means of social interchange for our friends and family, assist in the management of our homes and businesses, enable fi nancial transactions, and even facilitate how we manage our healthcare. STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF 5G SERVICES PROVIDED IN MMWAVE BANDS The glob

9、al impact of 4G brought about increases in mobile usage and network performance. 5G will build on this momentum, bringing substantial network improvements, including higher connection speeds, mobility and capacity, as well as low-latency capabilities. In doing so, it enables new use cases and applic

10、ations that will positively impact diferent industry sectors. Spectrum plays a critical role in realising the full extent of these new capabilities. Thus, 5Gs full socio-economic impact is dependent on access to a variety of spectrum resources, including millimetre wave (mmWave) bands between 24 GHz

11、 and 86 GHz. The mmWave spectrum allows for the increases in bandwidth and capacity that numerous 5G applications require. It will play a key role in meeting the demand for many enhanced mobile data services as well as new wireless broadband use cases such as remote object manipulation, industrial a

12、utomation, virtual and augmented reality and next-generation connectivity for vehicles. These use cases will continue to increase the impact that mobile services have on societies and economies. While the socio-economic benefi ts of mobile services and broadband connectivity have been studied for so

13、me time, quantifying the impact of high-capacity mmWave spectrum represents a new opportunity. To date, some of the mmWave bands have been made available for mobile services in some countries. Bands between 24 and 86 GHz are also under evaluation and will be considered for identifi cation for Intern

14、ational Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) at the ITU World Radiocommunication Conference in 2019 (WRC-19) in order to support 5G network development. The lengthy process to move spectrum from WRC agenda item to the day it is actually assigned underscores the need for all administrations to consider 5G

15、 spectrum needs now, especially in mmWave bands. This emphasises the importance of a mmWave specifi c analysis, supporting the timely actions that administrations should take in order to realise the many opportunities aforded by 5G in the future. As such, this study leverages the wide variety of res

16、earch done to date on the expected benefi ts of mobile broadband, the implementation of 5G and the role of mmWave in that implementation. This is done to forecast the contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) and tax revenue that is expected by making mmWave bands available for the deployment of

17、5G applications. 3 STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF 5G SERVICES PROVIDED IN MMWAVE BANDS Global impact During the last decade, numerous studies have focused on quantifying the socio-economic benefi ts of mobile broadband and 5G technologies on local, national, and regional economies. This study f

18、ocuses on the impacts of making mmWave bands available for 5G. The economic impacts of mmWave spectrum are quantifi ed over a 15-year period, 2020-2034, assuming mmWave bands are successfully identifi ed at WRC-19 and made available in a timely manner at the national level. The results of this study

19、 support three key fi ndings: I 5G is expected to provide important economic benefi ts globally, I mmWave spectrum will grow to become a signifi cant piece of this impact over time, and I Although economic benefi ts are greater in the early adopting economies over the period studied, the rate of con

20、tribution of mmWave in later adopting economies outpaces that of early adopters in the later years of the study. Recommendations The key fi ndings of this study show that, by 2034, 5G can be expected to generate $2.2 trillion in GDP, and $588 billion in tax revenue, with an increasing share of this

21、benefi t related to mmWave spectrum. Beyond the measurable impacts of mmWave 5G technology and services, numerous other benefi ts are expected, including improved access to healthcare and education, increased public security and response times, safer driving conditions, and reduced pollution, among

22、others. In order to realise the potential benefi ts analysed in this study, countries should plan accordingly for the timely availability of spectrum for mobile services, considering they are a key factor for their adequate deployment. Furthermore, the signifi cant socio-economic benefi ts found by

23、this study underscore the importance of mmWave spectrum for the development of the overall 5G ecosystem. In this context, the consideration of a number of mmWave bands at the upcoming WRC-19 is a critical opportunity to identify this spectrum for IMT, helping 5G meet its full potential irrespective

24、of where users are located and what mmWave-powered applications and services they want to use. It is recommended that governments take the following actions: IReview and support the diferent conditions and proposals for WRC-19 related to 5G, particularly the recommendation to identify the 26 GHz, 40

25、 GHz and 66-71 GHz bands for IMT. ISupport the regional and global process for the harmonisation of the use of these diferent bands, with due consideration for their frequency arrangements and minimum block sizes. IReview the national regulatory frameworks with the goal of allowing these bands to be

26、 deployed within the country. IAssign adequate amount of mmWave spectrum to operators, avoiding infl ating 5G spectrum prices to allow for heavy network investments and continuous reduction of cost of devices. IAim to make available 80-100 MHz of contiguous spectrum per operator in prime 5G mid-band

27、s (e.g. 3.5 GHz) and around 1 GHz per operator in millimetre wave bands (i.e. above 24 GHz). The study concludes, under conservative assumptions, that by 2034 mmWave spectrum will underlie an increase of $565 billion in global GDP and $152 billion in tax revenue, producing 25% of the value created b

28、y 5G (see Figure 1): 4 Regional breakdown Source: TMG. FIGURE 1. ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT ATTRIBUTABLE TO MMWAVE SPECTRUM ON GDP AND TAX REVENUE From a regional perspective, the study shows the following over the period 2020 to 2034 (see Figure 2 and Figure 4). IEurope has the highest percentage of G

29、DP growth attributable to mmWave 5G than any other region (2.9%). IThe Americas region generates the second highest percentage of GDP growth attributable to mmWave 5G (2.3%). IOnce 5G has taken of in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, the annual gain from mmWave 5G will grow much faster from 2026 o

30、nwards, closing the gap between the early and late adopters. 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 $2.2tr $565bn mmWave contribution to 5G total tax revenue mmWave band contribution to total GDP Total 5G tax revenue: $588bn $152bn STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF 5G SERVICES PROV

31、IDED IN MMWAVE BANDS I The Asia-Pacifi c and Americas regions are expected to generate the greatest share of the total contribution of mmWave 5G to the GDP, $212 billion and $190 billion, respectively. I One fi fth ($45 billion) of the Asia-Pacifi c total ($212 billion) is the contribution made by t

32、he region after excluding early adopters China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia and New Zealand. IIn the Americas region, a tenth ($20.8 billion) of the total ($190 billion) is contributed by the Latin-American and Caribbean countries. 5 Source: TMG. (*) Regional Commonwealth in the fi eld o

33、f Communications, which includes eleven countries from the former Soviet Union. FIGURE 2. PROJECTED REGIONAL IMPACT OF MMWAVE SPECTRUM BY 2034 GDP boost ($) AMERICAS Taxes generated ($)% of total GDP growth KEY LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN $190 billion $46 billion 2.3% of GDP growth $20.8 billion $5.

34、8 billion 1.2% of GDP growth ASIA-PACIFICSOUTH reduced pollution and increased efciency in transportation; and enhanced public safety response capabilities (see Figure 5). Use cases and industry verticals In our personal and work lives, several use cases are likely to be the chief benefi ciaries of

35、mmWave 5G and will generate more value. These use cases generally require a large amount of data throughput in a small coverage area or face scarcity of spectrum in lower frequency bands. To highlight the growth attributable to use cases and verticals, the study focuses on two key years: 2024, the y

36、ear when 5G is expected to begin displaying a measurable impact on growth; and 2034, the fi nal year of the study. Globally, remote object manipulation, industrial automation and virtual reality and meeting applications are expected to account for over 50% of the mmWave 5G contribution to GDP (see F

37、igure 6). Over time, next-generation connectivity gains an increasing share. The global impact of mmWave grows from $13.1 billion in 2024 to $565 billion in 2034. Remote object manipulation and industrial automation represent the biggest contributors to global output at both ends of the study period

38、. The relative value of the use cases is anticipated to remain mostly stable over the ten-year period, with mmWave spectrum increasing its relative value in transport, the virtual space and other use cases as more sophisticated applications are introduced. STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF 5G SERV

39、ICES PROVIDED IN MMWAVE BANDS 8 OtherVirtual reality and meeting Remote object manipulation Industrial automation Next generation transport connectivity Quick deployment/ temporary connectivity High-speed broadband in the home and ofce 19% 3% 13% 23% 19% 14% 8% 15% 3% 14% 23% 18% 16% 11% 2034 $565bn

40、 2024 $13.1bn 5% 34% 28% 18% 15% 6% 38% 25% 17% 14% Manufacturing and utilities Agriculture and mining Public services Professional and fi nancial services ICT and trade FIGURE 6. PROJECTED GLOBAL CONTRIBUTION OF MMWAVE SPECTRUM TO GDP BY USE CASE Source: TMG. The growth in any particular vertical b

41、uilds upon the difusion and expansion of 5G through new and existing use cases. The study estimates the impact of mmWave 5G on 13 verticals of the economy, which are consolidated, for presentation purposes, into fi ve sectors: manufacturing and utilities; professional and fi nancial services; public

42、 services; ICT and trade; and agriculture and mining. Within the fi ve sectors, manufacturing and utilities is expected to be the largest benefi ciary of 5G services which make use of mmWave spectrum. Contributions from manufacturing and utilities are projected to increase over the period 2024-2034.

43、 This is primarily due to two factors: 1. The relatively large size of the sector in the global economy; and 2. The strong role expected to be played by industrial automation and remote object manipulation in this sector. STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF 5G SERVICES PROVIDED IN MMWAVE BANDS 9 202

44、4 $13.1bn 2034 $565bn 5% 34% 28% 18% 15% 6% 38% 25% 17% 14% Manufacturing and utilities Agriculture and mining Public services Professional and fi nancial services ICT and trade FIGURE 7. ESTIMATED GLOBAL CONTRIBUTION OF MMWAVE BANDS ON GDP BY SECTOR Source: TMG. STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF

45、5G SERVICES PROVIDED IN MMWAVE BANDS 10 5G Use Cases Why Millimetre Waves Matter STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF 5G SERVICES PROVIDED IN MMWAVE BANDS 11 Behind these numbers, 5G will be deployed across several new areas. Many 5G use cases will depend on mmWave spectrum to reach their full potent

46、ial. STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF 5G SERVICES PROVIDED IN MMWAVE BANDS High-speed broadband in the home and ofce Industrial automation Virtual reality and meeting Quick deployment/temporary connectivity Remote object manipulation Next-generation transport connectivity High-speed mobile broadb

47、and to homes, ofces and public spaces is one of the fi rst 5G use cases being implemented. Fibre-like ultra-high speeds will need the capacity of mmWave 5G. Large-scale industrial automation relies on mmWaves. Thats because next-generation manufacturing will produce large amounts of data. Low-latenc

48、y communication is also crucial. Thanks to latency and peak data rate requirements, mmWaves will benefi t virtual and augmented reality. For example, educational applications are likely to produce high volumes of data that will rely on mmWave 5G. The transmission of live events and disaster response

49、 eforts require ultra-high speeds and low latency to deliver a high-quality experience to all kinds of users. Low latency and data rate requirements mean mmWave connectivity is expected to play an important role here including advanced healthcare applications. High data volumes and high-density real-time communications must be addressed by a combination of mmWave and lower bands to enhance services, especially in cities with dense trafc. 12 STUDY ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF 5G SERVICES PROVIDED