1、思考：行动思考：行动罗兰贝格下一代制造业准备就绪下一代制造业准备就绪Next Generation Manufacturinggets ready to rollNext Generation Manufacturinggets ready to roll经过漫长而缓慢的旅程，制造业将再次振奋人心After a long,slow ride,manufacturing is aboutto get exciting again经过漫长而缓慢的旅程，制造业将再次振奋人心After a long,slow ride,manufacturing is aboutto get exciting aga

2、in翻译：报告厅翻译组更多相关内容请参考：翻译：报告厅翻译组更多相关内容请参考：After a long,slow ride,manufacturing is about to get exciting again Next Generation Manufacturing gets ready to roll三大主题三大主题压力之下为什么51%的受访高管希望完全停止内部生产产品P.6进入新时代的一瞥进入新时代的一瞥六大趋势已达到临界点，为公司提供了独特的机会。P.8恢复力量恢复力量制造业如何成为真正的价值创造者，而不是纯粹的成本中心。制造业如何成为真正的价值创造者，而不是纯粹的成本中心。P.

3、19THE BIGSix megatrends have reached a tipping point and offer a unique opportunity for companies.P.8A glimpse into a new eraWhy 51 percent of executives surveyed would like to stop manufacturing products in-house altogether.P.6How manufacturing can become a true value generator instead of a pure co

4、st center.P.19UNDER PRESSURERegain strength目录下一代制造|思考：第 3 幕第 4 页第 4 页 执行摘要 第1第1 6 页6 页引言 第2第2 8 页8 页介绍六大趋势 第3第3 14 页14 页介绍区域NGM基准 第4第4 16 页16 页制造业再造 为什么该趋势应该被视为机会，而不是诅咒。第5第5 19 页19 页如何成为下一代制造商第 26 页第 26 页 总结过去和未来的功能封面插图 Matthias Seifarth/Wildfox RunningContentsPAGE 4 Executive summary 1 PAGE 6 Intro

5、duction 2 PAGE 8 Introducing the six megatrends 3 PAGE 14 Introducing the Regional NGM Benchmark 4 PAGE 16 Manufacturing reinvented Why the trends should be seen as an opportunity,not a curse.5 PAGE 19 How to become a Next Generation Manufacturer PAGE 26 Conclusion The once and future functionCover

6、illustration Matthias Seifarth/Wildfox Running3Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act4 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|执行摘要几十年来，制造企业一直承受着巨大的压力，以降低成本，提高质量，并保护利润率。总的来说，他们是成功的。通过采用精益思想和其他优化方法，通过将自动化和外包零件、组件，有时是整个产品集成到位于低成本市场的工厂，他们达到了。然而，这些手段已经达到了极限，并被证明是不够的。今天，有许多趋势已经达到了临界点：可持续性、行业颠覆、区域化、民粹主义、个性化和数字化。鉴于这一新视角，制造业“竞争力”

7、的观点从主要关注成本（劳动力、材料）转变为更广泛的观点，其中包括CO2排放、绿色能源、供应链的复杂性、灵活性或依赖性等因素发挥更大的作用。从我们的立场来看，制造商的机会之窗已经打开！在这项研究中，我们展示了这些趋势如何构成我们这个时代的前瞻性公司的一个重大机会。看到这个机会并决心采取果断行动的公司、首席运营官和制造负责人可以重新思考和重新配置他们的运营，并将他们的制造再次转变为真正的价值创造者。我们的报告分为五个部分：首先首先，我们研究到这么多制造商对制造业的未来感到绝望，并思考为什么大公司和亚洲公司的悲观情绪最为强烈，以及竞争力的概念总体上是如何变化的。其次其次，我们考虑了六大趋势中的每一个

8、，以及它们对制造公司的意义。第三第三，我们介绍了区域NGM基准，该工具将向您展示世界上最重要的制造业市场六大趋势中每一个趋势的相关性。第四第四，我们看看为什么六大趋势应该被视为制造商的机会。第五第五，我们建议您可以做些什么来开始您成为下一代制造商的旅程。Executive summaryFOR DECADES NOW,manufacturing companies have been under tremendous pressure to keep their costs down,quality up,and margins defended.By and large,they were

9、successful.By adopting lean thinking and other optimization methodologies,by integrating automation and outsourcing parts,components,and sometimes entire products to factories located in lower-cost markets,they delivered.However,these levers have reached their limits and are turning out not to be su

10、fficient any more.Today,there are a number of trends that have reached a tipping point:Sustainability,industry disruption,regionalization,populism,individualization,and digitalization.Given this new perspective,the view of manufacturing competitiveness changes from mainly a cost focus(labor,material

11、)to a much broader view where factors like CO2 emissions,green energy,complexity of the supply chain,flexibility,or dependency play a much bigger role.From where we are standing,a window of opportunity for manufacturers has opened!In this study,we show how each of these trends may constitute one of

12、the great chances of our time for forward-looking companies.Companies,COOs,and Heads of Manufacturing that see this opportunity and are determined to take decisive action can rethink&reconfigure their operations and turn their manufacturing once again into a true value generator.Our report is divide

13、d into five parts:First,we look at the desperation that so many manufacturers feel about the future of manufacturing and consider why pessimism is strongest among large companies,and Asian companies and how the notion of competitiveness in general is changing.Second,we consider each of the six trend

14、s and what they mean for manufacturing companies.Third,we introduce the Regional NGM Benchmark,a tool that will show you at a glance the relevance of each of the six trends in the worlds most important manufacturing markets.Fourth,we look at why the six megatrends should be seen as an opportunity fo

15、r manufacturers.Fifth,we suggest what you can do to begin your journey toward becoming a Next Generation Manufacturer.4 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动5|A从从“负债负债”到到“资产资产”六大趋势让公司重新思考和重新配置他们的制造战略可持续性将继续存在可持续性将继续存在六大趋势六大趋势数字化取胜数字化取胜行业变革首当其冲行业变革首当其冲位置更重要位置更重要转型转型大规模个性化大规模个性化民粹主义崛起

16、民粹主义崛起顾客公司顾客公司嵌入式可持续性提高效率制造足迹重新配置伙伴关系制造战略制造战略8 组杠杆和 70 个单独的措施8 组杠杆和 70 个单独的措施新的生产技术供应商网络新的商业模式数字技术资料来源：罗兰贝格AFrom a liability to an assetSIX MEGATRENDS ALLOW COMPANIES TO RETHINK&RECONFIGURE THEIR MANUFACTURING STRATEGY Source:Roland BergerMANUFACTURING STRATEGY8 clusters of levers with 70 individual

17、 measuresBoosted efficiency Embedded sustainabilityDigital technologiesNew business modelsSupplier networkPartnershipsNew production technologiesManufacturing footprint reconfiguration Sustainability is here to stayDigitalization to winPopulism on the riseIndustry disruption at the forefrontTransfor

18、mation to mass individualizationLocation matters moreCUSTOMERSCOMPANYSIX MEGATRENDS 5Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act6 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|1 引言从19世纪中期到20世纪末，从19世纪中期到20世纪末，制造业是经济繁荣的主要驱动力。即便是现在，传统制造业仍是世界经济的支柱，到2020年，传统制造业约占全球GDP的16%，如果算上辅助服务业，这一比例还会更高.现代制造业远非化石，它仍然是个人、公司和国家经济机会的重要来源。即使在今天，仅在美国，制造商就

19、吸引了所有私营部门研发资金的58%。尽管取得了如此长的成功记录，但在过去十年中，制造公司面临的压力一直在增加，并在许多方面产生影响。追求有助于推动全球供应链增长的低成本现在已经造成了巨大的复杂性：例如，空中客车公司与来自100多个国家的8,000家直接供应商和18,000家间接供应商合作。大众汽车更加复杂，约有40,000家直接供应商。投资者要求他们的投资获得更高的现金回报，这最终意味着在全球贸易重新政治化的同时更高的成本效率。消费者表示他们想要更多的生态产品，政府已经收紧了环境和安全法规。数字化还继续以令人惊讶和颠覆性的方式分解价值。吸引员工也比以往更加困难。即使发达经济体的制造业工作份额已

20、经下降，寻找人来承担剩余工作的难度也越来越大。仅在美国，制造商去年10月就只能填补大约一半的熟练劳动力空缺963.6万个职位中只有48.5万个鉴于制造业在促进就业方面的重要性，这一比例应受到政策制定者的密切关注。制造业高管们的情绪很低落。罗兰贝格公司最近为这项研究对约200名受访者进行了调查，其中67%的受访者表示，制造业普遍面临“效率和成本降低方面的巨大压力”。大约60%的人认为几乎没有机会减轻这些限制。调查还表明亚洲（不包括中国）的公司可能会感受到更大的压力，这可能是因为激烈的区域竞争，以及他们生产的许多产品的商品化性质。在各种力量的冲击下，许多公司更愿意成为轻资产机构，不那么受日常制造业

21、务运营问题的限制。在同一项调查中，51%的受访高管表示，他们希望完全停止内部生产产品。他们宁愿是苹果公司，纯粹负责产品的设计、品牌和营销，而其他人负责实际的组装工作。这一略微的多数掩盖了更广泛的观点差异，这取决于地区和市值。中国以外的亚洲公司(60%)已经受够了，相比之下，中国公司的比例为50%，欧盟公司为53%，有趣的是，美国公司的比例为41%。最大的公司也最渴望放弃制造业，这或许反映了他们业务的全球化竞争性质，他们必须面对民粹主义环境、报复的政治家、全球供应链短缺，以及来自公众和政府的巨大压力(特别是在可持续发展方面)。一家公司的传统会影响高管们的看法。工业公司的高管们对外包制造最不感兴趣

22、(也许是因为他们作为产品制造商的光荣传统)，其次是较小的公司。另一方面，健康和消费1IHS Markit2 全国制造商协会，关于制造业的事实，2021 年，https:/www.nam.org/facts-about-manufacturing/3 空中客车公司，可持续供应链，2021 年，https:/ Volkswagen AG，大众汽车为其 40,000 家供应商提供生产保护措施说明，2020 年，https:/ 我们的数据世界，高收入国家制造业就业份额，2015 年，https:/ourworldindata.org/6 纽约时报，随着经济反弹，制造商面临新的障碍，2021 年，htt

23、ps:/ 31-33,2021，https:/www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag31-33.htm#iag31-33emp1.f.pFROM THE MID-NINETEENTH CENTURY to the end of the twentieth century,manufacturing was a key driver of economic prosperity.Even now,traditional manufacturing remains the backbone of the world economy,accounting for an estimated 1

24、6 percent of global GDP in 2020,1 more when ancillary services are included.2 Far from a fossil,modern manufacturing continues to be an important source of economic opportunity for individuals,companies,and countries.Even today,manufacturers attract 58 percent of all private sector research and deve

25、lopment dollars in the US alone.Despite that long record of success,pressure on manufacturing companies has been building for the past decade,bearing down on many fronts.The pursuit of lower costs that helped drive the growth of global supply chains has now created enormous complexity:Airbus,for ins

26、tance,works with 8,000 direct and 18,000 indirect suppliers from over 100 countries.3 Volkswagen is even more complex,with around 40,000 direct suppliers.4Investors are demanding greater cash returns on their investments,which in the end means greater cost efficiency at the same time as global trade

27、 has been rrepoliticized.Consumers say they want more ecological products and governments have tightened environmental and safety regulations.Digitalization also continues to unbundle value in surprising and disruptive ways.Attracting employees is more difficult than it used to be,too.Even as the sh

28、are of manufacturing jobs in developed economies has fallen,5 finding people to take the remaining jobs is getting tougher.In the US alone,manufacturers were able to fill only about half of their available positions for skilled labor last October only 485,000 out of 963,0006 a ratio policymakers sho

29、uld watch closely,given the importance of manufacturing as a catalyst for employment.The mood in the manufacturing executive suite is somber.In a recent Roland Berger survey of around 200 respondents conducted for the purpose of this study,67 percent of the respondents to our survey said manufacturi

30、ng generally faced intense pressure in terms of efficiency and cost reduction.Roughly 60 percent see few opportunities to lessen those constraints.The survey also suggests that companies from Asia(excl.China)may feel the pressure even more intensely,possibly because of red-hot regional competition,a

31、nd the commoditized nature of many of the products that they produce.Battered by a variety of forces,many companies would prefer to become asset-light institutions,less constrained by operational issues in the day-to-day business of manufacturing.In that same survey,51 percent of executives surveyed

32、 said they would like to stop manufacturing products in-house altogether.They would rather be Apple,purely responsible for the design,branding,and marketing of products,while someone else does the actual physical assembly.That slight majority masks much wider variations of opinion,depending on regio

33、n and market cap.Asian companies outside of China have had enough(60 percent)compared to 50 percent of Chinese companies,53 percent of European Union companies,and interestingly,41 percent of US companies.BThe largest companies are also the most eager to drop manufacturing,a reflection,perhaps,of th

34、e competitive global nature of their business and that they have to face populist environments,vindictive politicians,global supply chain shortages,and intense pressure from the public and the government(especially with respect to sustainability).A companys heritage made a difference in executives o

35、utlook.Executives at industrial companies had the least interest in outsourcing manufacturing(owing,perhaps,to a proud tradition as a product-maker),followed by smaller companies.On the other hand,health and consumer 1 Introduction1 IHS Markit2 National Association of Manufacturers,Facts About Manuf

36、acturing,2021,https:/www.nam.org/facts-about-manufacturing/3 Airbus,Sustainable Supply Chain,2021,https:/ Volkswagen AG,Volkswagen supports its 40,000 suppliers with instructions for protective measures in production,2020,https:/ Our World in Data,Share of manufacturing employment in high income cou

37、ntries,2015,https:/ourworldindata.org/6 The New York Times,As Economy Rebounds,Manufacturers Face New Hurdles,2021,https:/ of Labor Statistics,Manufacturing:NAICS 31-33,2021,https:/www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag31-33.htm#iag31-33emp1.f.p6 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动7|60505341企业最愿

38、意把生产线交给别人，这或许反映出它们的制造业根基较浅，或者它们认识到，企业的价值更多地体现在品牌上。然而，尽管关闭工厂的愿望可以理解，但这是一个错误的愿望。以低成本和高质量生产大量复杂的产品并不容易，如果你选择了你的利基市场并提供良好的服务，你的客户会奖励你:：以台积电为例，它是一家纯粹专注于代工制造的公司（半导体），利润丰厚（2020年净收入为39%）。7三星是一家在可持续发展、促进数字化和连通性、建立新的合作和伙伴关系方法以及重新配置其制造足迹方面取得长足进步的公司，在过去5年中能够持续获得约9-18%的净利润.受访者对工厂主面临的挑战并不是错误的。正如我们将在本文中展示的那样，制造的许多

39、方面都很艰难，而且越来越艰难。但我们还将证明，响应这些趋势的紧迫性为制造商提供了一个难得的机会，将他们的资产和专业知识从不利因素转变为竞争优势。B追随苹果的脚步追随苹果的脚步全球都希望成为一个轻资产机构世界各地的许多公司宁愿完全停止内部制造.%世界各地的许多公司宁愿完全停止内部制造.%1 亚洲中国欧盟美国(不包括中国).尤其是最大的公司%.尤其是最大的公司%1 6154473310,000m收入欧元收入欧元收入欧元收入7 台积电，2020 年年报，https:/ 三星电子，财务摘要，2021 年，https:/ were most open to leaving the assembly li

40、ne to someone else,perhaps reflecting of shallower manufacturing roots or the recognition that more of the companys value is in its brand.However,as understandable as this wish to shut down the factory might be,its a mistaken aspiration.Producing large numbers of certain amounts of complex goods at

41、low cost with a high degree of quality is not easy to do,and if you pick your niche and serve it well,your customers will reward you:Consider TSMC,a purely contract manufacturing focused company(semiconductors),which is highly profitable (39 percent net income in 2020).7 Samsung,a company that has m

42、ade great strides in sustainability,fostering digitalization and connectivity,establishing new collaborations and methods of partner-ship,and reconfiguring its manufacturing footprint,was able to rake in consistent profit net of around 9-18 percent in the last 5 years.8 Its not that the respondents

43、are wrong about the challenges that factory owners face.As we will show in this paper,many aspects of manufacturing are tough and getting tougher.But we will also demonstrate that the urgency to respond to these trends has given manufacturers a rare opportunity to transform their assets and expertis

44、e from a liability into a competitive advantage.BIn the footsteps of AppleTHE GLOBAL DESIRE TO BECOME AN ASSET-LIGHT INSTITUTIONSource:Roland Berger1 Total%of responses for Agree and Fully agreeASIA (excl.CN)CNEUUSMany companies around the world would rather stop doing manufacturing in-house complet

45、ely.%160505341.particularly the largest companies%1 334754617 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.,Annual Report,2020,https:/ Samsung Electronics,Financial Highlights,2021,https:/ METHODOLOGY We conducted C-level interviews and a survey with 200 respondents from dozens of companies around the wo

46、rld,most of them medium-sized to large enterprises with an international footprint.After conducting interviews with subject matter experts and calibrating their responses with our own experience,we identified six megatrends highly relevant to manufacturing.Survey respondents came from all major indu

47、strial clusters:North America,Asia,and Europe,and from a diverse range of industries:machinery,automotive,electronics,technology,food and beverage,life sciences,chemicals,materials,steel,and semiconductors.10,000 m EUR revenue 7Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act8 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|2 介绍六大趋势当我们开始评估

48、今天的制造业状况时，我们看到公司面临的大多数挑战背后有六大趋势如何正确看待，也构成了机遇：趋势一趋势一可持续发展的驱动力可持续发展的驱动力随着人为气候变化的影响越来越大，政府、投资者、消费者以及现在的许多公司都开始强制实施大大小小的改变，其核心目标是：拯救我们的星球。来自监管机构的压力和激励措施不断增加，这通常是由公民草根运动（例如“未来的星期五”）和越来越多的绿色选民行为（例如在德国，绿党在秋季表现出色，在新三届中赢得了领导地位）推动的路联合政府。社交媒体引发的公众抗议，例如对通过微信公开的中国环境丑闻的反应，也影响了舆论。这项活动也不仅仅是说说而已。通过欧洲绿色协议等倡议，欧盟明确表示，其

49、目标是到2050年使这个世界上最大的市场实现气候中和。德国于2021年在运输和建筑行业征收碳税，价格在2025年之前每年都会增加，然后分别在2026年和2027年进入拍卖并最终进入自由市场。其他引入碳税的国家包括中国，2021年新引入的排放交易体系涵盖电力行业；加拿大，2019年开始征收联邦燃料费；阿根廷，2018年对几乎所有液体燃料和煤炭征税；和日本，自2012年以来几乎对所有化石燃料征税。在机构投资者中，对投资的社会和环境影响的担忧在2016年至2019年期间几乎翻了一番，将环境和社会问题视为“可能以牺牲业绩为代价的首要问题”的投资者比例从 17%上升至36%。投资于ESG任务的管理资产(

50、AUM)正以惊人的速度增长。按照目前的增长率，到2030年，符合ESG的资产将覆盖所有资产的95%以上。确保这些名称保留其意义的机制也正在到位，因为越来越多的研究公司提供基于ESG的透明度评级，传统的信用评级机构开始对公司的ESG质量进行评级。正如贝莱德首席执行官拉里芬克在2021年所说，投资者看待以可持续发展为重点的公司的方式发生了“结构性转变”。“在我们客户的优先事项列表中，没有任何问题比气候风险更高，”芬克在给贝莱德股东的信中写道。“他们每天都问我们。”同时，消费者的看法也发生了变化。罗兰贝格最近的一项研究得出结论，77%的消费者愿意支付更高的价格为提供环保产品的品牌。面对消费者和投资者

51、都在增长在重视ESG的同时，许多制造公司都在努力实施自己的举措，重点是减少运营中的二氧化碳排放。9 欧盟委员会，2021 年欧洲绿色协议，https:/ec.europa.eu/info/战略/优先事项-2019-2024/欧洲-绿色-deal_en10 世界银行，碳定价仪表板，2021 年，https:/carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data11 全球基础设施中心，2019 年全球基础设施投资者调查，https:/cdn.gihub.org/umbraco/media/2564/global-infrastructure-investor-

52、调查报告 2019.pdf12 德意志银行，投资者对银行的可持续性有何期望？，2021，https:/ MSCI，ESG 评级，2021 年，https:/ 全球最大的基金经理 CNBC 表示，可持续投资将继续激增，推动更多披露，2021年，https:/ Yvonne Ruf，David Frans，Klimaschutz Ein neues Paradigma derWettbewerbsfhigkeit，2021，https:/ Introducingthe six megatrendsbetween 2016 and 2019,11 as the share of investors

53、who see environmental and social concerns as a first order question,possibly at the expense of performance rose from 17 percent to 36 percent.Assets under management(AUM)invested in ESG mandates are increasing at an enormous pace.At their present rate of growth,ESG-compliant assets will cover more t

54、han 95 percent of all assets by 2030.12 The machinery to make sure those designations retain their meaning is also being put in place,as more and more research firms offer ESG-based transparency ratings,and the traditional credit rating agencies branch out to rate companies for ESG quality.13 As Bla

55、ckRock CEO Larry Fink put it in 2021,there has been a tectonic shift in the way investors view sustainability-focused companies.No issue ranks higher than climate risk on our clients list of priorities,Fink wrote in his letter to BlackRock shareholders.They ask us about it every day.14At the same ti

56、me,there has also been a change in consumers views.A recent Roland Berger study concluded that 77 percent of consumers are willing to pay a higher price for brands that offer environmentally friendly products.15Faced with consumers and investors both growing more serious about ESG,many manufacturing

57、 companies are working harder on their own initiatives,with an emphasis on CO2 reduction in their operations.AS WE STARTED ASSESSING the state of manufacturing today,we saw that six trends were behind most of the challenges companies faced and viewed correctly,also constituted the opportunities:Tren

58、d 1THE DRIVE FOR SUSTAINABILITYAs the impact of human-caused climate change mounts,governments,investors,consumers,and now many companies have begun to force large and small changes that have at their heart a single goal:to save our planet.Pressure and incentives from regulators continue to increase

59、,often driven by citizen grassroots movements(such as Fridays for Future)and increasingly green voter behavior(e.g.in Germany,the Greens did well enough in the fall to have earned a leadership position in the new three-way coalition government).Public outcry driven by social media,such as the reacti

60、on to Chinese environmental scandals publicized through WeChat,have also shaped opinion.Nor is this activity all just talk.Through initiatives such as the European Green Deal,the European Union has made it clear that it aims for the worlds largest market to be climate neutral by 2050.9 Germany intro

61、duced a carbon tax in the transport and building sector in 2021,with prices set to increase every year until 2025,before going into an auction and finally a free market in 2026 and 2027,respectively.Other countries that have brought in carbon taxes include China,with a newly introduced emissions tra

62、ding system in 2021 covering the power sector;Canada,with a federal fuel charge introduced in 2019;Argentina,with a tax on almost all liquid fuels and coal implemented in 2018;and Japan,which has taxed almost all fossil fuels since 2012.10Among institutional investors,concern about the social and en

63、vironmental impact of investments nearly doubled 9 European Commission,A European Green Deal,2021,https:/ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en10 The World Bank,Carbon Pricing Dashboard,2021,https:/carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/map_data11 Global Infrastructure

64、Hub,Global Infrastructure Investor Survey,2019,https:/cdn.gihub.org/umbraco/media/2564/global-infrastructure-investor-survey-report-2019.pdf12 Deutsche Bank,What do investors expect from the bank with regard to sustainability?,2021,https:/ MSCI,ESG Ratings,2021,https:/ 14 CNBC,Worlds largest money m

65、anager says sustainable investing surge to continue,pushes for more disclosure,2021,https:/ Yvonne Ruf,David Frans,Klimaschutz Ein neues Paradigma der Wettbewerbs-fhigkeit,2021,https:/ Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动9|大众与供应商密切合作，以实现脱碳目标并监督他们对人权规则的遵守情况。三星开发了一种生态设计流程，以提高资源和能源效率并

66、防止制造过程中的环境危害。工业回收的努力也正在获得动力。几乎所有的饮料制造商和塑料供应商都加入了终结塑料废物联盟，而将先进的塑料回收技术推向市场的DePoly和Ioniqa等初创公司正在获得大量资金，以减少塑料行业产生的垃圾。一些公司，如博世，已经设法实现碳中和，但其他公司（尤其是钢铁、化工、混凝土和能源行业）必须创造性地思考才能实现目标。毫无疑问，迟早，每个人都将被迫发挥创造力，以找到最终达到他们想要的目标的方法。大多数分析师认为，除了与碳排放、社会不平等或供应商丑闻相关的更高成本外，不符合ESG要求的公司必须支付的利率将侵蚀他们的利润（如果他们设法获得投资者的话）。精心设计的ESG响应中存

67、在重大机遇也没有什么坏处。正如我们稍后在报告中指出的那样，ESG明星更有可能成为华尔街的宠儿。例如，特斯拉以“加速世界向可再生能源转型”为使命，在成立不到20年的时间里，就市值超过了所有其他汽车公司。有这么多因素推动和拉动制造商转向可持续解决方案，难怪在拥有250多名成员的制造外包平台Fictiv发布的2021年制造状况报告中，68%的C级或VP级高管告诉民意调查者，可持续性问题达到了受访者企业历史上的最高水平，突显了可持续发展对高层管理人员日益重要的重要性。但企业还有很长的路要走：36%的受访者表示他们有良好的意愿但没有切实可行的计划，58%的受访者表示他们对供应商的可持续发展标准的控制有限

68、，凸显了ESG透明度在整个价值链中的重要性。43%的人表16 终结塑料垃圾联盟，2021 年，https:/endplasticwaste.org/en/about17 家回收初创公司，前 92 名塑料、PET 回收初创公司，2021 年，https:/www.回收启动.org/top/plastic-waste/18 视觉资本家，按市值计算的全球顶级汽车制造商，2021 年，https:/ Fictiv，2021 年制造业状况报告，https:/ 年制造状况报告示，他们在小型项目方面做得很好，但难以扩展可持续发展计划。毋庸置疑，许多公司在可持续性方面都有很长的待办事项清单，包括有关其制造足迹

69、的决策（例如如何获得更清洁的能源和减少浪费，确保其供应商不违反环境规则或使用童工）。由于每个生产环境固有的复杂性和高资本支出，没有什么比切换（一组）工厂更复杂的了。目前，实现完全碳中和的手段主要与碳抵消（在许多情况下意味着植树）、购买可再生电力、转向替代生产工艺或实施节电有关。对于许多行业（例如钢铁/混凝土生产）来说，这还不够。在这些领域，实现下一代制造需要更多的创新。趋势二趋势二生产和需求的区域化生产和需求的区域化重大破坏，例如全球大流行（Covid-19）、更高的关税（特朗普）、某些产品的集中（亚洲的半导体供应商，其危机具有巨大的连锁反应，例如日本的瑞萨Naka 火灾）、犯罪（索马里海盗）

70、)、恐怖主义和运输困难（2021年3月苏伊士运河封锁六天）、环境灾难、童工丑闻（尤其是在纺织行业）以及需要较长的生产周期，这让许多公司怀疑是否廉价劳动力和生产设施的价格现在太高了。权衡政治压力和便利性，许多制造商现在正在重新思考扩展供应链的智慧。在不考虑地理或地缘政治的情况下优化成本组件在纸面上效果很好，但在现实生活的不可预测性的影响下并不总是那么好。现在，一些人开始看到缩小制造足迹和增强区域能力的环境、经济和运营优势。医疗保健制造就是一个重要的例子。在努力提高疫苗、个人防护装备和其他安全设备的国内生产之后，关键材料和零件的供应现在是许多公司和政府最关心的问题。难怪山德VW works clo

71、sely with its suppliers to achieve decarbonization goals and to monitor their compliance with human rights rules.Samsung has developed an eco-design process to improve resource and energy efficiency and prevent environmental hazards during manufacturing.Industrial recycling efforts are gaining momen

72、tum as well.Almost all beverage manufacturers and plastic providers have joined the Alliance to End Plastic Waste,16 and startups such as DePoly and Ioniqa,which are bringing advanced plastic recycling technologies to the market,are receiving significant funding to reduce the waste produced by the p

73、lastics industry.17Some companies,such as Bosch,have already managed to become carbon neutral but others(especially in the steel steel,chemical,concrete,and energy industries)will have to think creatively to reach their goals.And there is no question that,sooner or later,everyone will be forced to g

74、et creative to find ways to end up where they want to be.Most analysts believe that in addition to higher costs related to carbon emissions,social inequality,or supplier scandals,the interest rates non-ESG compliant firms will have to pay will eat into their profits(if they manage to secure investor

75、s at all).It also doesnt hurt that there is a significant opportunity in a well-designed ESG response.As we note later in the report,ESG stars are likelier to be Wall Street darlings.Tesla,for instance,starting with its mission of accelerating the worlds transition to renewable energy,was able to ov

76、ertake all other automotive companies by market cap less than 20 years after its founding.18With so many factors pushing and pulling manufacturers toward sustainable solutions,its no wonder that in the 2021 State of Manufacturing Report by Fictiv,a manufacturing outsourcing platform with over 250 me

77、mbers,68 percent of C-or VP-level executives told pollsters that sustainability concerns had reached their highest level in the respondents corporate history,underlining sustainabilitys growing importance to top management.19 But companies have a long way to go:36 percent of respondents stated that

78、they have good intentions but no practical plan and 58 percent said that they have limited control over their suppliers sustainability standards,highlighting the importance of ESG transparency along the entire value chain.Forty-three percent said that they do a good job with small projects but have

79、difficulty scaling a sustainability initiative.It goes without saying that many companies have a long to-do list when it comes to sustainability,including decisions about their manufacturing footprint(such as how to obtain cleaner energy and reduce waste,making sure their suppliers dont violate envi

80、ronmental rules or use child labor).Due to the inherently complex nature and high capital expenditures necessary in every production environment,there is nothing more complex than to switching(a set of)factories around.Currently,the levers to achieve full carbon neutrality relate mainly to carbon of

81、fset(which in many cases means planting trees),purchasing renewable electricity,switching to alternative production processes,or implementing power savings.For many industries(e.g.steel/concrete production)that is not enough.In these sectors,more innovation will be necessary to achieve Next Generati

82、on Manufacturing.Trend 2THE REGIONALIZATION OF PRODUCTION AND DEMANDMajor disruptions such as a global pandemic(Covid-19),higher tariffs(Trump),the concentration of certain products(semiconductor suppliers in Asia whose crises have a massive ripple effect,e.g.the Renesas Naka fire in Japan),crime(So

83、mali pirates),terrorism and transportation difficulties(the six-day Suez Canal blockage in March 2021),environmental disasters,child labor scandals(especially in the textile industry),and the need for long lead times in production are leading many companies to wonder whether the price of cheaper lab

84、or and production facilities is now too high.Weighing up the political pressure and the convenience,many manufacturers are now rethinking the wisdom of their extended supply chains.Optimizing components for cost without considering geography or geopolitics worked well on paper but not always so well

85、 when subject to the unpredictabilities of real life.Now,some are starting to see environmental,economic,and operational advantages in shrinking their manufacturing footprint and reinforcing their regional capabilities.Healthcare manufacturing is an important case in point.Following the efforts to r

86、amp up domestic production of vaccines,PPE,and other safety equipment,the availability of critical materials and parts is now a top-of-mind concern for many companies and governments.No wonder Sandoz 16 Alliance To End Plastic Waste,2021,https:/endplasticwaste.org/en/about17 Recycling Startups,Top 9

87、2 Plastic,PET Recycling startups,2021,https:/www.recyclingstartups.org/top/plastic-waste/18 Visual Capitalist,The Worlds Top Car Manufacturers by Market Capitalization,2021,https:/ Fictiv,State of Manufacturing Report,2021,https:/ Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act10 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|士和奥地利政府最近宣布了一项联合

88、计划，以提高欧洲抗生素生产的长期竞争力，并且高达92%的医疗器械制造商计划将其生产转移到岸上或近岸。医疗保健以外的许多公司也在考虑将生产转移到离家更近的地方或重要的终端市场。在Covid-19之后进行的一项调查中，44%的美国制造业受访者表示他们将转向更区域化的供应链。Fictiv还发现，88%的机器人制造商、79%的汽车制造商和63%的电子制造商打算转向在岸或近岸制造。全面思考和优化众多工厂的足迹是这里的关键。很多时候，灵活性、安全性、资源可用性和文化相似性的长期利益大大超过了成本节约的直接利益。将工厂转移到另一个地点并培训相关员工的成本非常高，因此有远见的方法是长期保持竞争优势的关键。趋势

89、三趋势三民粹主义的魅力民粹主义的魅力政府面临越来越大的压力来确保工作并为其公民提供高薪职业。许多人愿意为关键的、社会薄弱地区的工厂提供巨额补贴，或为愿意在特定地区开店的公司提供基础设施。2016年，美国选民将经济和就业列为美国面临的最重要问题。根据盖洛普的数据，2020年，89%的人仍将经济列为极其重要或非常重要。与1930年代一样，一群独特的政治家利用日益增长的经济和社会不满以及快速的技术变革（尤其是媒体的变革）来追求各种反动的、通常是仇外心理的政策。对于公司来说，这可能会带来很大的问题。尽管民粹主义政客引发的担忧在很大程度上是虚构的，但他们实施的政策变化可能会对企业产生切实的影响。无论是关

90、税，不公平的法律待遇，还是国有化，这些日子里，主要企业比多年来更担心极其重要或非常重要的事情。超民族主义政策远未消退，一些国家为公司将生产迁回国内提供补贴，例如所得税豁免和资本利得税豁免，和其他国家在Covid大流行期间禁止出口药品，或控制世界上大部分的半导体供应。公司在最近的贸易战和民粹主义的商品出口中断中遭受了很多损失。社交媒体也仍然是一张通配符，它以一种人们仍然知之甚少的方式塑造观点，但会对公司的福祉产生强大的影响。预测政治事件的进程是困难的，但难以否认波动加剧的总趋势。所有公司都明智地做好准备，尤其是制造商。在实体关税和签证限制加强的情况下，专业服务人员可以用Zoom电话代替亲自拜访，

91、但实体生产网络不能只上线。例如，半导体生产设备制造商ASML在特朗普政府推动其取消向中国出口其光刻机（目前几乎拥有全球垄断地位）时，发现其未来动摇了。趋势四趋势四行业颠覆行业颠覆技术进步正在加速高质量商品的生产，但以搅动行业的方式。电动汽车可能看起来像引擎盖下的传统汽车，但据英国金融时报报道，传统的内燃机有2000个运动部件，而现代电动汽车的发动机只有20个，这大大降低了复杂性，并对全球汽车生态系统产生了深远的影响。20 ChemistryViews，加强欧洲抗生素制造的未来，2020，https:/www.chemistryviews.org/details/news/11262095/加强

92、_Future_of_Antibiotics_Manufacturing_in_Europe.html21 Fictiv，2021 年制造业状况报告，https:/ 年制造状况报告22 盖洛普，最重要的问题，2021，https:/ 梅根布雷南（Megan Brenan），2020 年经济在选民的关键选举问题清单中名列前茅，https:/ EuroStart Enterprises，商业脱欧：如何将您的企业迁至法国，2021年，https:/ 业-brexit-relocate-enterprise-france25 金融时报，您的电动汽车有多环保？，2021 年，https:/ polici

93、es are far from on the wane,with some countries offering subsidies for companies to move production home,such as income tax exemptions and capital gains tax exemptions,24 and other countries banning the exportation of medicines during the Covid pandemic,or controlling the majority of the worlds semi

94、conductor supply.Companies have suffered a lot from recent trade wars and populist export stoppages of goods.Social media too continues to be a wild card,shaping opinions in ways that are still only dimly understood but that can have powerful effects on companies well-being.Foreseeing the course of

95、political events is difficult,but the general trend toward more volatility is hard to deny.All companies are wise to prepare,but particularly manu-facturers.In times of physical tariffs and heightened visa restrictions,professional service workers can substitute Zoom calls for in-person visits,but a

96、 physical production network cant just go online.The semiconductor production equipment manufacturer ASML,for example,found its future shaken when the Trump administration pushed it to cancel the export of its photolithography machines(in which it currently holds almost a worldwide monopoly)to China

97、.Trend 4INDUSTRY DISRUPTIONAdvances in technology are speeding up the production of high-quality goods but in ways that are roiling industry.An electric car might look like a traditional vehicle with an engine under the hood,but according to the Financial Times,the traditional internal combustion en

98、gine has 2,000 moving parts,while a modern electric cars engine has only 20,a drastic reduction in complexity with far-reaching consequences for the global automotive ecosystem.25 and the Austrian government recently announced joint plans to drive the long-term competitiveness of European antibiotic

99、s production20,and that a whopping 92 percent of medical device manufacturers plan to bring their manufacturing back on-shore or near-shore.Many companies outside of healthcare are also considering moving production closer to home or a significant end market.In a survey conducted in the wake of Covi

100、d-19,44 percent of all manufacturing respondents in the US stated that they will be shifting to a more regional supply chain.Fictiv also found that 88 percent of robotics manufacturers,79 percent of automotive manufacturers,and 63 percent of electronics manufacturers intend to move to on-shore or ne

101、ar-shore manufacturing.21 Thinking holistically and optimizing the footprint of a multitude of factories is key here.Many times,the immediate benefits of cost savings are significantly outweighed by the long-term benefit of flexibility,safety,resource availability,and cultural similarity.It is very

102、costly to move a plant to another location and to train the related workforce,so a visionary approach is key to keep a competitive advantage in the long term.Trend 3THE ALLURE OF POPULISMGovernments are under more and more pressure to secure jobs and provide well-paying careers for their citizens.Ma

103、ny are willing to heavily subsidize plants in critical,socially weak locations or provide infrastructure to companies willing to set up shop in a particular region.In 2016,US voters named the economy and jobs as the most important problems facing America.22 In 2020,according to Gallup,89 percent sti

104、ll ranked the economy as either extremely important or very important.23 As in the 1930s,a distinctive group of politicians have capitalized on rising economic and social discontent and rapid technological change(particularly changes in media)to pursue a variety of reactionary and often xenophobic p

105、olicies.CFor companies,this can be very problematic.While the fears populist politicians stoke are often largely imaginary,the policy changes they put in place can have real consequences for business.Whether its a tariff,unfair legal treatment,or nationalization,major businesses have more to fear th

106、ese days than they have had for years.20 ChemistryViews,Strengthening Future of Antibiotics Manufacturing in Europe,2020,https:/www.chemistryviews.org/details/news/11262095/Strengthening_Future_of_Antibiotics_Manufacturing_in_Europe.html21 Fictiv,State of Manufacturing Report,2021,https:/ Gallup,Mos

107、t Important Problem,2021,https:/ Megan Brenan,Economy Tops Voters List of Key Election Issues,2020,https:/ EuroStart Enterprises,Business Brexit:How To Relocate Your Enterprise to France,2021,https:/ Financial Times,How green is your electric vehicle?,2021,https:/ Think:Act|Next Generation Manufactu

108、ring下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动11|C涨潮涨潮民粹主义的受欢迎程度不断增长1980-2020年民粹主义总票数1980-2020年民粹主义总票数24%22%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%020102020右翼选票左翼选票资料来源：TIMBRO，威权民粹主义指数，2021，https:/ 数据来自 1980 年以来自由选举的欧洲国家（不包括半威权国家）的全国选举；根据不同的公共资源和主要研究将政党分为左翼或右翼民粹主义者。27https:/ is also enabling customization,over-the-air updates

109、(e.g.Tesla)and more options that can be built in at the level of scripts instead of hardware.Companies can also future-proof products by pre-producing hardware even before the software needed to run it is ready,making a future upgrade possible when the programming is complete.For instance,all Tesla

110、cars already have all the hardware needed for full self-driving sensors,cameras,processors,and radar and just await the software to run them.27 At the same time,advances in technology continue to reduce the need for many products a single smartphone,for instance,can now substitute what would have be

111、en whole rooms of electronic goods,from cameras to satellite navigation systems,to stereos and television sets.At the same time,the rise of the sharing economy decreases urbanites need to buy vehicles,as a plethora of startups give them easy access to a wide range of alternative forms of transportat

112、ion,including scooters,mopeds,and electric bicycles.These trends are followed by increasing demand volatility,which comes from a different adoption rate of things like electric products and from market disruptions.As a consequence,it becomes more and more difficult for traditional manufacturers to p

113、redict demand and schedule their processes accordingly.Needless to say,the software embedded in all these products constitutes an increasingly important portion of product value.But many manufacturers continue to struggle with the implications of this revolution,particularly companies rooted in a tr

114、adition of mechanical engineering.26 Data aggregated from national elections in European countries with free elections(semi-authoritarian countries excluded)since 1980;categorization of parties into left-or right-wing populists depending on different public sources and primary research.27 https:/ Po

115、pulism Index,2021,https:/ rising tideTHE POPULARITY OF POPULISM KEEPS GROWING26 02010202022%20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%24%Aggregated populist votes,1980-2020Right-wing votesLeft-wing votes11Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act12 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|预计软件热潮将使产品更加高效和耐用，进一步减少对新物理产品的需求。例如，对于汽车

116、而言，共享所有权的趋势预计将导致整体订单量小得多，并且对单个车辆级别的定制需求减少。与此同时，由于客户对共享产品的关注度降低，对更强大产品的需求可能会增加。对于汽车原始设备制造商而言，这意味着来自汽车实际生产的收入将越来越少，而更多来自其运营。对于制造部门来说，这意味着与销售和外部利益相关者建立更紧密的联系。与此同时，公司被迫将新的生产技术和技能以及改变的足迹整合到他们的制造业务中（例如共享经济汽车的小型区域维修和大修中心）。不应低估这些挑战，因为许多制造商目前都在努力适应电动产品的新世界。通常需要与电池供应商进行更好的合作，以及获得关键原材料（例如钴）。更不用说处理更浅的制造深度的系统了。因

117、此，不言而喻，合资企业将成为许多领域的新常态。一些制造商已经在为这个新世界进行自我改造，例如通过构建更坚固的产品来承受共享经济中的艰苦使用，或者通过实施颠覆性的新商业模式。例如，荷兰增材制造公司Hubs运营着一个3D打印机网络，其他公司可以将其用于制造，并以MaaS（制造即服务）模式进行营销。趋势五趋势五大规模定制和规模的终结大规模定制和规模的终结传统上，选择是一种奢侈品。处于市场顶端的消费者可以拥有他们想要的定制产品，并具有他们想要的饰面和功能。但这种个人关注不再局限于萨维尔街。现在，技术使越来越多的消费者能够准确地得到他们想要的东西。这给制造商带来了各种新的挑战。在传统制造业中，规模经济推

118、动了大多数决策。销量越多，价格越便宜;价格越便宜，对消费者的价值就越高。然而，今天，发生变化。多种技术的融合使得在销售点即时引入选项变得越来越容易且具有成本效益 技术能力、颜色和交付方式都可以在最后一秒决定。这给一些玩家带来了重大挑战。没有规模，制造商如何在成长过程中获得动力？如果3D打印等新技术让几乎所有东西都更容易制造，它们能否通过设计或功能实现差异化？许多大公司已经在利用这种能力为客户创造新的价值：运动服：运动服：耐克和阿迪达斯提供可定制的运动鞋和服装。医疗设备：医疗设备：3D打印为制造商提供了更多定制植入物和关节的能力。制药：制药：现在可以在生产层面（个性化药物、干细胞和基因疗法）根据

119、患者需求调整剂量。材料：材料：现在，可以根据客户的确切规格制造钢材。他们并不孤单。位于维也纳的cyLEDGE Media的配置器数据库列出了仅美国的438个在线配置器网站和德国的575个在线配置器。配置商提供的个性化产品和配件涵盖种类繁多的商品，从美容产品、电子产品、工业产品和车辆到宠物用品和打印平台。对于原始设备制造商和制造商而言，这将意味着他们的经营方式将发生一些深刻的变化。原始设备制造商将不得不与他们的客户建立比以前更紧密的关系，并做出更好的预测。对于制造部门而言，复杂性的增加意味着生产失败的可能性增加、记账成本增加以及规模经济的降低。他们将需要以最具成本效益的方式配置选项理想情况下使用

120、软件，保留硬件标准，同时完全定制客户体验的非物理方面。趋势六趋势六新的数字范式新的数字范式数字化集成计算机网络和传感器以前所未有的效率为客户创造更多价值的简写是我们的第六个也是最price;the cheaper the price,the better the value for the consumer.Today,however,thats changing.The convergence of several technologies is making it increasingly easy and cost effective to introduce options on th

121、e fly at point of sale technological capabilities,colors,and delivery method can all be decided at the last second.This is creating major challenges for some players.Without scale,how will manufacturers gain momentum as they grow?And if new technologies such as 3D printing make almost everything eas

122、ier to manufacturer,will they be able to differentiate by design or function?Already,many major companies are using this capacity to create new kinds of value for the customer:Athletic wear:Nike and Adidas are offering customizable sneakers and apparel.Medical devices:3D printing gives manufacturers

123、 more capacity to customize implants and joints.Pharmaceuticals:Doses can now be adjusted to patient needs right at the production level(personalized medicine,stem cell and gene therapies).Materials:Now,steels can be made to fit the customers exact specifications.And they arent alone.The Configurato

124、r Database of cyLEDGE Media in Vienna lists 438 online configurator websites in the US alone,and 575 online configurators in Germany.Configurators offerings of individualizations and accessories span a huge variety of goods,from beauty products,electronics,industrial goods,and vehicles to pet suppli

125、es and printing platforms.For OEMs and manufacturers,this will mean some profound changes to their ways of doing business.OEMs will have to build a much closer relationship with their customers than before and forecast better.For the manufacturing department,increasing complexity will mean more poss

126、ibilities for production failures,additional bookkeeping costs,and lower economies of scale.They will need to configure options in the most cost-effective way possible ideally with software,leaving the hardware standard while completely tailoring the non-physical aspects of the customer experience.T

127、rend 6THE NEW DIGITAL PARADIGMDigitalization shorthand for the power of integrated computer networks and sensors to produce more value to the The software boom is expected to make products much more efficient and durable,further reducing the need for new physical products.For automobiles,for example

128、,the trend toward shared ownership is expected to lead to much smaller overall order quantities and less need for customization at the level of the individual vehicle.At the same time,the demand for more robust products is likely to increase,as customers pay less attention to shared products.For aut

129、omotive OEMs,this means that less and less revenue will stem from the actual production of the car and more from its operation.For the manufacturing unit,it means closer connections with sales and external stakeholders.At the same time,companies are forced to integrate new production technologies an

130、d skills and a changed footprint into their manufacturing operations(e.g.small regional repair and overhaul centers for shared economy vehicles).One should not underestimate these challenges,as many manufacturers are currently struggling with adapting to the new world of electrically driven products

131、.Oftentimes a much better cooperation with battery cell suppliers is needed,as well as access to critical raw materials(e.g.cobalt).Not to mention a system that copes with the far shallower manufacturing depth.It therefore goes without saying that joint ventures will become the new norm in many area

132、s.Some manufacturers are already reinventing themselves for this new world,such as by building more rugged products that can withstand hard use in the shared economy,or by implementing disruptive new business models.For example,Hubs,a Dutch additive manufacturing company,runs a network of 3D printer

133、s that other firms can use for manufacturing,which it markets under a MaaS(Manu-facturing as a Service)model.Trend 5MASS CUSTOMIZATION AND THE END OF SCALETraditionally,choice was a luxury product.Consumers at the top of the market could have what they wanted made to order with the finish and featur

134、es that they desired.But such personal attention is no longer restricted to Savile Row.Now,technology is making it possible for more and more consumers to get exactly what they want.This is creating a variety of new challenges for manu-facturers.In traditional manufacturing,scale economics drove mos

135、t decisions.The more units sold,the cheaper the 12 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动13|后一个趋势，它是一项正在改变几乎所有人类组织运作方式的进步。从政府到银行，从娱乐到教育，从医疗到咨询，数字化正在推动各种革命。制造商也不例外。在数字化的早期阶段，制造企业最明显的变化是ERP系统和面向消费者的网络销售。然而，现在工厂可以彻底数字化，许多公司都看到了令人鼓舞的结果。人们讨论多年的技术（物联网、工业4.0、人工智能和大数据）终于成熟，并准备好加速制造。在工厂内，物联网和

136、工业4.0设备的兴起，例如机器人、自动导引车、传感器、工人增强现实技术和增材制造，正在导致更智能、更紧密的供应链以及供应商和客户之间的透明度更高，减少库存的需要。与此同时，自主机器人和智能地板输送机不断提高工厂空间的灵活性和效率。制造业中的人工智能可以接管越来越多的复杂任务，生产更复杂的产品，并对这些产品进行质量控制。此外，预测性维护可以使用大数据和人工智能来预测制造环境中的故障，增加正常运行时间并减少生产成本。然而，数字化也带来了新的威胁，首先是网络安全。制造商需要适应来自其管辖范围以外国家的黑客攻击，在其系统中创建备份和冗余，并投资于新的数字能力和人力资源，以免变得脆弱。过去，工厂发生火灾

137、会导致该工厂停止生产。如今，中央IT系统中的系统关闭能够关闭所有工厂的全部生产。28 香港理工大学，人工智能驱动的 WiseEye 实现织物故障检测自动化，2019 年，https:/www.polyu.edu.hk/cpa/milestones/en/201903/technology_innovation/技术/ai_powered_wiseeye_automates_fabric_fault_detectio/索引.html29 DLabs.ai，预测性维护：这就是人工智能如何改变工业 4.0，2020，https:/dlabs.ai/blog/predictive-maintenanc

138、e-this-is-how-ai-can-transform-industry-4-030 制造商，制造商增加对数字技术的投资以应对大流行，2020 年，https:/ of Erlangen)合作，开发整个供应链上的连续100%可追溯性。乍一看，这六大趋势似乎印证了许多制造业高管的感觉，即从事这不是一个好生意。没有一个制造业部门不面临相当大的挑战和压力。但由于这六大趋势已经达到了一个临界点，制造公司有一个难得的机会通过在一系列新的关注点上与众不同来获得优势。与政策制定者必须试图哄骗不情愿的公众和根深蒂固的权力做出必要的牺牲以建设更美好的未来不同，制造公司的高管们今天有各种各样的机会可以采取行

139、动，为一些社会最紧迫的问题提出解决方案.无论这意味着发明一种疫苗来阻止全球大流行，还是通过制造电动汽车来限制气候变化，制造商都有一个不寻常的机会来创造世界需要的价值。对于最敏捷的，这也可能被证明是获得持久竞争优势的千载难逢的机会。customer with greater efficiency than ever before is our sixth and final trend,and its an advance that is changing how almost every human organization operates.From government to bankin

140、g,entertainment to education,healthcare to consulting,digitalization is powering a variety of revolutions.Manufacturers are no exception to the rule.In the early stages of digitalization,the most apparent changes for manufacturing companies were ERP systems and for the consumer-facing,web sales.Now,

141、however,the factory can be thoroughly digitalized,and many companies are seeing encouraging results.The technologies people have discussed for years(IoT,Industry 4.0,artificial intelligence,and big data)have finally matured,and are ready to speed manufacturing ahead.Within the factory,the rise of Io

142、T and Industry 4.0 devices,such as robots,autonomous guided vehicles,sensors,augmented reality technology for workers,and additive manufacturing,is leading to smarter,better-connected supply chains and more transparency across suppliers and customers,reducing the need for inventory.At the same time,

143、autonomous robots and smart floor conveyors keep increasing the flexibility and efficiency of factory space.AI in manufacturing can take over more and more complex tasks,produce more complex products,and perform quality control on those products.28 Moreover,predictive maintenance can use big data an

144、d AI to predict failures in a manufacturing environment,increasing uptime and reducing production costs.29However,digitalization also comes with new threats,first and foremost cybersecurity.Manufacturers need to adapt to hacker attacks from countries outside their jurisdiction,create backups and red

145、undancy in their systems and invest in new digital capabilities and human resources in order not to become vulnerable.In the past,a fire in a plant was able to stop production in that one plant.Nowadays,a system shutdown in the central IT system is able to shut down the complete production of all pl

146、ants.On the demand side,the urgency to make these changes continues to grow.In a post-Covid survey of manufacturers in the US,76 percent of respondents state that they will be increasing investments in digitalization.30 Manufacturers are also looking to digital assistance to meet efficiency targets

147、and make the supply chain greener by driving greater efficiency in the usage of energy and raw materials.No wonder that in the 2021 State of Manufacturing Report by Fictiv,91 percent of senior executives at its 250+member companies reported that they had increased their investment in digital busines

148、s.Virtually everyone 95 percent said they see a digital transformation as essential to the companys future success.With digitalization,consumer orders can immediately be transferred upstream and related parts ordered just in time.If parts or production capacities are missing,their absence can be imm

149、ediately communicated to the customer and dissatisfaction with delivery avoided.Digitalization can reduce the amount of inventory that needs to be in stock and give procurement officers earlier warning about emerging supply shocks(such as Covid or the Suez blockage).Looking ahead,the Holy Grail for

150、manufacturing is complete digital transparency of the supply chain.The good news is that companies like DiIT,a specialist in integrated software solutions for wire harnesses,which has partnered with the University of Erlangen to develop continuous 100 percent traceability along an entire supply chai

151、n,are currently working on it.At first glance,these six trends might seem to confirm the feeling of many manufacturing executives that its not a good business to be in.There isnt a sector of manufacturing that doesnt face considerable challenges and pressure.But because these six megatrends have rea

152、ched a tipping point,manufacturing companies have a rare opportunity to gain the upper hand by differentiating themselves on a new range of concerns.Unlike policymakers who must try to cajole a reluctant public and entrenched powers to make the sacrifices necessary to build a better future,executive

153、s at manufacturing companies have a variety of opportunities they can act on today to come up with solutions to some of societys most pressing problems.Whether that means inventing a vaccine that stops a global pandemic or limiting climate change by building electric cars,manufacturers have an unusu

154、al opportunity to create value that the world needs.For the nimblest,this may also prove to be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to gain a lasting competitive edge.28 The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,AI-powered WiseEye automates fabric fault detection,2019,https:/www.polyu.edu.hk/cpa/milestones

155、/en/201903/technology_innovation/technology/ai_powered_wiseeye_automates_fabric_fault_detectio/index.html29 DLabs.ai,Predictive Maintenance:This Is How AI Can Transform Industry 4.0,2020,https:/dlabs.ai/blog/predictive-maintenance-this-is-how-ai-can-transform-industry-4-030 The Manufacturer,Manufact

156、urers increasing investments in digital technology in response to pandemic,2020,https:/ Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act14 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|3 介绍区域NGM基准正如美国政治家和长期担任众议院议长的托马斯“提示”奥尼尔曾经指出的那样，所有政治都是地方性的。同样，全球制造最终也是本地化的。无论您在哪里制造和销售，成功都取决于您管理制造、供应商和当地情况的能力。为了帮助您更清楚地了解这六种趋势如何影响不同地区的公司，我们创建了一个记分卡，它采用30项公开可用

157、的数据衡量标准，并将它们与我们为17个最重要的制造市场确定的六种趋势进行对比。与趋势最相关的数字最高。例如，可持续性在瑞典排名4.3，这表明如果您想在瑞典制造，可持续性不是可选的问题。六种趋势的强度因市场而异。在最大的制造业市场中，我们注意到我们的指标所显示的目前最重要的特征。美国美国对于美国来说，最相关的趋势是数字化（鉴于高风险资本投资、高比例的在线零售、企业对数字技术的大量使用以及数字公共服务的提供）、民粹主义（如高关税所证明的）,对民主的满意度低,民粹主义政党的选票多,签署的自由贸易协定数量少)和个性化(由于Hofstede个性化指数中的高分)。对制造业的影响是，面对不断变化的法律要求，

158、许多公司必须保护其供应链并重新评估其生产策略。他们还需要通过使用更多的自动化和大数据以及通过向消费者提供高度个性化的商品和相关服务包来进行更多投资并适应对数字化的高期望。中国中国与中国最相关的趋势是行业颠覆（由于每GDP的大量专利和研发支出高）和地理位置（考虑到营商便利、良好的物流绩效、廉价的能源和劳动力以及良好的教育），尽管可持续性正在迅速追赶，并将在未来发挥关键作用。对制造业的影响是，中国仍将是一个可供投资的增长型市场，并将继续推动世界创新。因此，制造商应投资于年轻人才和新技术，并尝试与可持续性等方面相关的新商业模式。欧盟欧盟就优势而言，目前欧盟最引人注目的是其意识形态气候。除了民粹主义倾

159、向外，大量的自由贸易协定和对其他国家产品的低关税表明了对开放市场的坚定承诺。同时，可持续性也与欧盟密切相关，正如欧盟在罗兰贝格气候变化作战雷达上的高分、强烈的性别平等、高水平的劳工权利和其他相关标准所表明的那样。因此，公司应继续在欧盟投资，并利用有利的当地市场和开展业务的条件。他们应该通过转变其制造业务以实现可持续发展并提供更可持续的商品和服务，从而在可持续发展领域处于领先地位。巴西巴西与巴西最相关的趋势是民粹主义（民粹主义政权的高投票率、高水平的贸易关税、高度的腐败以及签署的自由贸易协定水平低）和地点问题（鉴于高水平的失业、低工资和能源价格）。3 Introducing theRegiona

160、l NGM BenchmarkAS THOMAS TIP ONEILL,the American politician and long-time Speaker of the House of Representatives,once noted,all politics is local.Similarly,global manufacturing is also local in the end.Wherever you make and sell,success comes down to how well you manage your manufacturing,suppliers

161、 and local circumstances.To help you see more clearly how these six trends are affecting companies in different regions,we have created a scorecard that takes 30 publicly available data measures and maps them against our six identified trends for 17 of the most important manufacturing markets.Number

162、s are highest where the trend is most relevant.For example,sustainability ranks 4.3 in Sweden,an indication that if you want to manufacture in Sweden,sustainability is not an optional concern.D The strength of the six trends differs from market to market.Among the biggest manufacturing markets,we no

163、te what our indicators suggest are the most significant characteristics now.USAFor the US,the most relevant trends are digitalization(given high venture capital investment,a high share of online retail,high usage of digital technologies by enterprises,and the offering of digital public services),pop

164、ulism(as evidenced by high levels of tariffs,low satisfaction with democracy,large numbers of votes for a populist party,and the low number of free trade agreements signed)and individualization(owing to the high score in the Hofstede individualization index).The impact for manufacturing is that many

165、 companies have to secure their supply chains and reevaluate their production strategy in the face of changing legal requirements.They also need to invest more and adapt to the high expectations regarding digitalization by using,say,more automation and big data and by delivering highly individualize

166、d goods and related service packages to consumers.CHINAThe most relevant trends for China are industry disruption(owing to the high number of patents per GDP and high spending on R&D)and location(considering ease of doing business,good logistical performance,cheap energy and labor,and good education

167、),although sustainability is quickly catching up and will play a key role in the future.The consequences for manufacturing are that China will remain a growth market in which to invest and which will continue to drive world innovation.Manufacturers should thus invest in young talent and new technolo

168、gies and try out new business models with relevance to aspects like sustainability.EUIn terms of strengths,what is most striking in the EU at the moment is its ideological climate.Aside from tendencies towards populism,the large number of free trade agreements and low tariffs on other countries prod

169、ucts are indications of a deep commitment to open markets.At the same time,sustainability is also strongly relevant to the EU,as indicated by the EUs high score on the Roland Berger Climate Change Combat Radar,the strong gender equality,a high level of labor rights,and other related criteria.Compani

170、es should thus continue to invest in the EU and take advantage of the beneficial local market and conditions for doing business.They should lead in the sustainability space by transforming their manufacturing operations to end up with a sustainable footprint and offering more sustainable goods and s

171、ervices.BRAZILThe most relevant trends for Brazil are populism(as evidenced by the high share of votes for a populist regime,the high level of trade tariffs,high perceived corruption,and low level of free trade agreements signed)and location matters(given high levels of unemployment,low wages,and en

172、ergy prices).14 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动15|因此，公司应该为这个经常供应整个南美地区的大型市场中的破坏性事件做好准备，并通过多源、多工厂战略对冲风险。需要建立替代材料和劳动力来源，以确保稳健的制造运营和为未来做好准备。印度印度与巴西相似，与印度最相关的趋势也是地理位置问题，(围绕经商的便利、良好的物流、廉价的劳动力和能源)和民粹主义(由于高水平的贸易关税、高水平的政党意识、签署的自由贸易协定数量少以及民粹主义政府的高选民比例)。在这方面，制造商也应投资于不断增长且具有吸引力的市场，但要为供应链

173、中断做好准备，这可能源于意外的民粹主义法规、原材料的缺乏或公众动荡。D不同地区，不同影响不同地区，不同影响六大趋势的强度因市场而异可持续性将继续存在可持续性将继续存在数字化取胜数字化取胜行业颠覆处于最前沿行业颠覆处于最前沿民粹主义抬头民粹主义抬头位置更重要位置更重要巴西美国中国印度欧盟（平均）向大规模个性化转型向大规模个性化转型资料来源：罗兰贝格54321location matters(around ease of doing business,good logistics,and cheap labor and energy)and populism(due to the high lev

174、el of trade tariffs,high level of awareness of political parties,low number of free trade agreements signed,and high voter share for populist governments).Here too,manufacturers should invest in the growing and attractive market but brace themselves for disruptions in the supply chain that may stem

175、from unexpected populist regulations,unavailability of raw materials,or public unrest.Companies should thus prepare for disruptive events in this large market that often supplies the whole region of South America and hedge their risks with a multi sourcing,multi plant strategy.Alternative materials

176、and sources of labor need to be established in order to ensure robust manufacturing operations and preparedness for the future.INDIASimilar to Brazil,the most relevant trends for India are also Source:Roland BergerDDifferent regions,different impactHOW THE STRENGTH OF THE SIX TRENDS DIFFERS FROM MAR

177、KET TO MARKETSustainability is here to stayTransformation to mass individualizationIndustry disruption at the forefrontDigitalization to winLocation matters morePopulism on the riseBrazilUSAChinaIndiaEU(average)1543215Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act16 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|4 重塑制造业为什么该趋势应该被视为机遇，而不是

178、诅咒。我们的调查发现我们的调查发现，制造业高管感受到的压力感因地区和规模而异。来自亚洲(不包括中国)的公司更有可能感受到压力79%的亚洲公司比59%的美国公司更有压力。或许并非巧合的是，只有41%的美国公司希望停止生产，相比之下，60%的亚洲公司(不包括中国)、50%的中国公司和53%的欧洲公司希望停止生产。会不会是那些在向中国和墨西哥转移的大潮中幸存下来的美国制造企业拥有特殊程度的适应力，或者对自己的专业领域感到异常安全?收入超过5亿美元的公司的领导者比小盘公司更有可能感受到巨大的压力(68%-76%vs38%)。然而，这些大公司也更有可能在驱动这种压力的六个趋势中看到重新配置制造业的机会窗

179、口(88%对营收超过100亿欧元和低于5亿欧元的公司分别为54%)。当今最成功的三家制造公司的例子表明，这些大公司的领导者在这个充满挑战的时代感知机遇并没有错：特斯拉成立17年后，市值已超过所有其他汽车制造公司，证明了投资者对未来成功的高度信心。他们通过遵循所有六大趋势来做到这一点：只生产可以使用可再生能源的车辆；通过生产自己的太阳能来使他们的制造足迹更加环保；引领电气化和自动驾驶等颠覆性技术；通过建立区域生产足迹；通过个性化软件;通过及早获得关键原材料；并投资于高度自动化和新的生产技术。例如，通过其新开发的Gigapress，特斯拉能够将相应底盘部分的组件数量从70个减少到1个。台积电是全球

180、最大的半导体制造商，拥有超过50%的市场份额和极高的盈利能力。公司实施了降低能耗的绿色制造系统；与战略客户和供应商合作；通过提供设计灵活性和尖端制造，发明了新的价值创造模式；并且正在建立其全球制造足迹。它还使用大数据来优化流程，并将其制造运营的几乎每个方面都实现了数字化。减少原材料和能源的消耗不仅影响利润，而且使公司成为全球可持续发展的领跑者。与此同时，米其林正在向世人展示，老牌企业可以在这个美丽的新世界取得成功。这家有132年历史的轮胎制造商正在将可持续性嵌入其DNA中，通过在其原料中取代以石油和橡胶为基础的材料，根据行驶里程租赁轮胎，并与回收公司和微型胶粉制造商合作以确保供应链安全，建立了

181、新的价值创造模式和战略合作伙伴关系。自2014年推出其所谓的4R战略(减少、再利用、回收、更新)以来，米其林的股价上涨了50%以上。尽管他们各自采取了截然不同的战略，但这三个企业的领导者都明白，今天对价值的定义要求的不仅仅是更低的价格、更快的交付和更好的质量。相反，他们被要求更加可持续，并以更加谨慎、更加敏捷、更好的价值观和更好的风险管理来管理他们的供应链。4 Manufacturing reinvented Why the trends should be seenas an opportunity,not a curse.software;by securing critical raw

182、materials early on;and by investing in high automation and new production technologies.Through its newly developed Gigapress,for example,Tesla was able to reduce the number of components in the respective chassis section from 70 to 1.TSMC is the the largest semiconductor fabricator in the world with

183、 over 50 percent market share and sky-high profitability.The firm implemented green manufacturing systems that reduce power;partnered with strategic customers and suppliers;invented new value creation models by offering design flexibility and cutting-edge manufacturing;and is building on its worldwi

184、de manufacturing footprint.It also uses big data to optimize processes and has digitalized almost every aspect of its manufacturing operations.Reducing the consumption of raw materials and energy not only impacts the bottom line but also positions the company as a front-runner in global sustainabili

185、ty.Michelin,meanwhile,is showing that old companies can succeed in this brave new world.The 132-year-old tire manu-facturer is embedding sustainability in its DNA,enabling new value creation models and strategic partnerships by replacing oil and rubber-based materials in their feedstocks,leasing the

186、ir tires based on kilometers run,and partnering with recycling companies and micronized rubber powder manufacturers to secure their supply chain.Since introducing what it calls its 4R strategy(reduce,reuse,recycle,renew)in 2014,Michelin has grown its stock price by over 50 percent.Although they have

187、 each pursued very different strategies,the leaders of these three businesses have understood that todays definition of value demands more than a lower price,faster delivery,and better quality.Instead,they are being called upon to be more sustainable and govern their supply chain with more care,more

188、 agility,better values,and better risk management.FOUR SURVEY FOUND that the sense of pressure that manufacturing executives feel varies dramatically by region and size.Companies from Asia(excl.China)are more likely to feel under pressure 79 percent of Asian companies compared to 59 percent of Ameri

189、can companies.Perhaps not coincidentally,only 41 percent of American companies would want to stop manufacturing compared to 60 percent of businesses from Asia(excl.China),50 percent of Chinese firms,and 53 percent of European companies.Could it be that the American manufacturing companies that have

190、survived the exodus to China and Mexico possess a special degree of resilience or feel unusually secure in their niche?Leaders of companies with revenues of more than USD 500 m were much more likely to feel under intense pressure than smaller caps(68-76 percent vs.38 percent).However,these large fir

191、ms are also more likely to see in the six trends that drive this pressure a window of opportunity to reconfigure manufacturing(88 percent vs.54 percent for companies with more than EUR 10 bn and less than EUR 500 m revenue,respectively).E The example of three of todays most successful manufacturing

192、companies suggest that these large-company leaders are not wrong in sensing opportunity in these challenging times:Tesla has surpassed all other automotive manufacturing companies by market cap 17 years after its founding,testifying to high investor confidence in future success.They did it by follow

193、ing all six of the megatrends:by producing only vehicles that can use renewable energy;by producing their own solar power to make their manufacturing footprint greener;by leading in disruptive technologies such as electrification and autonomous driving;by establishing a regional production footprint

194、;by individualizing through 16 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动17|E趋势是你的朋友吗？趋势是你的朋友吗？大公司和亚洲公司认为大趋势是积极的NGM 机会NGM 机会当前趋势提供了重新思考制造业的机会之窗当前趋势提供了重新思考制造业的机会之窗%1 当前趋势提供了重新思考制造业的机会之窗当前趋势提供了重新思考制造业的机会之窗%1 87254亚洲中国欧盟美国10,000m(不包括中国)收入欧元收入欧元收入欧元收入因此，利用NGM的公司可以提高制造绩效和竞争力%因此，利用N

195、GM的公司可以提高制造绩效和竞争力%1 因此，利用NGM的公司可以提高制造绩效和竞争力%因此，利用NGM的公司可以提高制造绩效和竞争力%1 8582677277808254亚洲中国欧盟美国10,000m(不包括中国)收入欧元收入欧元收入欧元收入资料来源：罗兰贝格1“同意”和“完全同意”回答的总百分比EIs the trend your friend?LARGER COMPANIES AND ASIAN COMPANIES SEE MEGATRENDS AS POSITIVESource:Roland Berger1 Total%of responses for Agree and Fully

196、agreeASIA (excl.CN)ASIA (excl.CN)CNCNEUEUUSUS10,000 m EUR revenue thus,companies that leverage NGM can boost manufacturing performance&competitiveness%1The current trends provide a window of opportunity to rethink manufacturing%1thus,companies that leverage NGM can boost manufacturing performance&co

197、mpetitiveness%1The current trends provide a window of opportunity to rethink manufacturing%75480808288NGM opportunities10,000 m EUR revenue 17Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act18 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|制造业竞争力制造业竞争力（在过去）标准：主要关注成本标准：主要关注成本劳动材料等等F不仅仅是削减成本不仅仅是削减成本制造业新竞争力标准概述可持续性将继续存在

198、可持续性将继续存在数字化取胜数字化取胜行业颠覆走在最前列行业颠覆走在最前列趋势的影响趋势的影响民粹主义抬头民粹主义抬头位置更重要位置更重要向大规模个性化转型向大规模个性化转型制造业竞争力制造业竞争力（现在和未来）标准：扩大标准：扩大劳动力和材料对CO2排放的影响（例如物流概念）对ESG的影响新风险（例如关键原材料的可用性）新的足迹方面（例如政府的本地制造要求）数据的可用性/访问权限.机会之窗机会之窗积极应对新标准，不仅可以提高制造业的竞争力，也可以提高整个公司的竞争力资料来源：罗兰贝格FMore than cost cuttingAN OVERVIEW OF THE NEW COMPETITI

199、VENESS CRITERIA FOR MANUFACTURINGSource:Roland BergerCriteria:Major focus on cost Labor Materials etc.Competitiveness of manufacturing(In the past)Transformation to mass individualizationLocation matters moreSustainability is here to stayDigitalization to winPopulism on the riseIndustry disruptionat

200、 the forefrontIMPACT OF TRENDSProactively addressing the new criteria not only boosts the competitiveness of manufacturing but also the competitiveness of the entire companyWindow of opportunityCriteria:Broadening Labor&materials Impact on CO2 emissions(e.g.logistics concept)Impact on ESG New risk(e

201、.g.availability of critical raw materials)New footprint aspects(e.g.local manufacturing requirements by governments)Availability of/access to data .Competitiveness of manufacturing (Today&in the future)18 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动19|5 如何成为一名下一代制造商下一代制造不是单一的下一代制造不是单一的一劳永逸

202、的方法论。这是一系列利用数字化、市场需求和当下需求的做法，帮助您在所在行业赢得持久的竞争优势。正如我们在上面看到的，拥有全球足迹的大公司特别有可能将制造业视为一种负担。在竞争激烈的环境中生产更多商品化产品且缺乏技术优势的公司正在遭受痛苦并寻求退出。可持续性问题、全球化竞争、供应链短缺、民粹主义或破坏性事件造成的中断、数字化的竞争以及消费者需求的增加导致成本和限制不断上升，这些因素每年都在给它们带来更大的压力。但如果米其林和其他老牌公司能够利用这些趋势发挥他们的优势，你也可以。1.在制造业中嵌入可持续性要求。在制造业中嵌入可持续性要求。如果产品“更环保”，大部分且不断增长的人口愿意为产品支付溢价

203、。与此同时，政府正在补贴和激励向更可持续实践的过渡。随着对全球变暖的担忧加剧，大多数分析师认为，在这些奖励之后将出现越来越大的惩罚，例如美国大学捐赠基金对石化公司股票撤资的新生行动。现在采取行动可能更有利，而可持续性仍然提供竞争优势，而不仅仅是开展业务的成本。31 Statista,Verbrauchs-und Medienanalysis VuMA 2021,2020,https:/ How to become aNext Generation ManufacturerNEXT GENERATION MANUFACTURING isnt a single once-and-done meth

204、odology.Its a range of practices that take advantage of digitalization,the needs of the market,and the needs of the moment to help you win a lasting competitive edge in your sector.As we have seen above,large companies with a global footprint are particularly likely to see manufacturing as a liabili

205、ty.Companies in very competitive environments that produce more commoditized products and lack a technological edge are suffering and looking for an exit.Rising costs and constraints arising out of sustainability concerns,globalized competition,supply chain shortages,disruptions due to populist or d

206、isruptive events,competition from digitalization,and increased consumer demands are squeezing them harder every year.But if Michelin and other old companies have been able to leverage these trends to their advantage,so can you.G1.Embed sustainability requirements in manufacturing.A large and growing

207、 part of the population is willing to pay a premium for a product if it is greener.31 Governments,meanwhile,are subsidizing and incentivizing transitions to more sustainable practices.As anxiety about global warming rises,most analysts believe that these carrots will be followed by increasingly big

208、sticks,such as the nascent move toward petrochemical company stock divestment by US university endowments.Its likely more advantageous to act now,while sustainability still offers a competitive edge and is not yet just a cost of doing business.Concrete measures to take in manufacturing might include

209、:Increase your energy efficiency,change your manufacturing processes,generate your own or buy renewable energy,change your fleet to green Strengthen your efforts in attracting a more diverse workforce Audit key CO2 sources in your product supply chain and develop an improved roadmap with key supplie

210、rs Get yourself audited by a specialized sustainability agency to create more transparency and better KPIs2.Reconfigure your manufacturing footprint.For the last 40 years,manufacturing companies had put labor arbitrage as their highest priority.Now,automation and a new-found sense of vulnerability a

211、re encouraging many manufacturers to try to bring their production assets closer to their customers.What makes most sense for your firm now?What locations will be more advantageous to you in a few years,as automation continues to advance,and the cost of renewable power continues to decline?Like a ch

212、ess player,you need to look at both where you are now and where you want to be.Concrete measures to take in manufacturing might include:Redesign your manufacturing footprint from global to regional factories Rethink investments/expansions in countries where populism could become a risk for(global)tr

213、ade Consider the risk of supply chain disruptions and increasing logistics costs and move production and supply chains closer to the end markets.Automation will help you produce closer/in high-cost markets Reconfigure the footprint depending on the availability of(cheap)green energy Create a network

214、 of mini plants to serve local markets3.Establish new collaborations and methods of partnerships.Mastering the new trends in manufacturing requires com-petencies that many companies currently do not have.In 31 Statista,Verbrauchs-und Medienanalyse VuMA 2021,2020,https:/ Generation Manufacturing|Thin

215、k:Act20 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|总共约 70 项措施总共约 70 项措施G从这里到达那里从这里到达那里介绍下一代制造的八个层次传统杠杆传统杠杆下一代制造下一代制造多年来，出路是多年来，出路是杠杆杠杆描述描述杠杆杠杆描述描述嵌入式可持续性嵌入式可持续性创造透明度并加强可持续性数字技术数字技术利用数字技术和IIoT（工业物联网）制造足迹重新配置伙伴关系制造足迹重新配置伙伴关系重新考虑区域站点足迹建立新的伙伴关系/合作供应商网络供应商网络新的生产技术新的生产技术重新思考供应商网络与协作重新评估物理生产技术新的商业模式新的商业模式重新思考价值创造的深度提高效率提高效率降低直接和间接成本

216、资料来源：罗兰贝格3自动化自动化2低成本国家低成本国家1精益管理精益管理84261537GGetting there from hereINTRODUCING THE EIGHT LEVERS OF NEXT GENERATION MANUFACTURINGLeverLeverFor years,the way out wasDescriptionDescriptionNew business modelsRethink depth of value creation4Boosted efficiencyReduce direct and indirect costs 8Manufacturi

217、ng footprint reconfigura-tionRethink regional site footprint2Supplier networkRethink supplier network&collaboration6Embedded sustainabilityCreate transparency and enforce sustainability1Digital technologiesLeverage digital technologies&IIoT5PartnershipsEstablish new partnerships/collaborations3New p

218、roduction technologiesReevaluate physical production technologies7TRADITIONAL LEVERSNEXT GENERATION MANUFACTURINGAutomation3Low-cost countries2Lean management1Source:Roland Berger70 MEASURES IN TOTAL 20 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动21|要许多公司目前不具备的能力。此外，规模对于在供应商给予您的优先级（例如半导体）方

219、面拥有重要发言权变得同样重要。因此，伙伴关系变得越来越重要。采取的具体措施可能包括：与其他行业的领导者合作以加速创新并确保获得新技术（例如力拓和苹果的绿色铝）通过收购或与关键技术供应商建立独家合作伙伴关系（例如特斯拉收购Grohmann Engineering），确保获得关键技术建立制造集群，实现生产资产共享加入平台（如Catena-X）以建立价值链上的智能数据交换并优化整体流程与客户共同设计联合制造4.考虑重新创造价值的新商业模式考虑重新创造价值的新商业模式。下一代制造不仅仅是以不同的方式做事。这也是关于做不同的事情。考虑新商业模式的机会，例如：提供制造即服务将制造资产利用率更改为按使用付费

220、，即仅在您实际使用机器时向供应商付款通过将选定的流程划分为独立公司（例如MAN铸造厂），向竞争对手开放您的能力销售制造数据集，例如特定机器类型的性能数据5.利用数字技术利用数字技术。车间数字化将提高效率和透明度，从而成为大多数其他杠杆的推动力。采取的具体措施可能包括：使用自动化、机器人和支持人工智能的生产计划和执行使用数字化更好地与您的客户（订购、订单管理）以及您的供应链（供应链连接系统）建立联系，以增加信任并减少库存需求通过使用分析以及云和边缘计算来利用您的数据来生成有助于您进一步发展的见解6.重新设计您的供应商网络。重新设计您的供应商网络。您的供应商是您成功的一部分，甚至是您成功的核心。利

221、用他们的核心竞争力和资产是您成功的关键。采取的具体措施可能包括：通过外包更复杂的模块，最大限度地利用供应商的专业知识和制造能力同时，审查您的供应链设置，重点关注当地的二氧化碳排放和物流工作确保通过云平台与您的供应商进行智能数据集成，以实现产品和流程分析和改进增加供应链的多样性以分散风险7.利用新的生产技术利用新的生产技术。公司需要利用新的生产技术和流程，这些技术和流程会导致生产力发生阶梯式变化，并且对其他公司来说进入门槛很高。采取的具体措施可能包括：为早期识别新技术定义技术筛选流程成为研究和创新网络的一部分保护您的生产技术IP以保持优势8.提高效率。提高效率。作为传统制造中最重要的杠杆，实现效

222、率仍然是企业最重要的杠杆之一。采取的具体措施可能包括：在投资I4.0/自动化之前最大限度地实现卓越运营根据技术筛选和用例分析，定义整体I4.0战略和全球推广计划系统地分析过程改进潜力，包括间接制造领域，例如。机器人过程自动化6.Reengineer your supplier network.Your suppliers are part of or even the core of your success.Leveraging their core competency and assets is key to your success.Concrete measures to take

223、might include:Maximize the utilization of your suppliers know-how and manufacturing capabilities by outsourcing more complex modules At the same time,review your supply chain setup with a focus on local CO2 emissions and logistical efforts Assure smart data integration with your supplier via cloud p

224、latforms to enable product and process analysis and improvement Increase diversity in your supply chain in order to spread out risk7.Leverage new production technologies.Companies need to leverage new production technologies and processes that pose step changes in productivity and have a high barrie

225、r to entry for other companies.Concrete measures to take might include:Define a technology screening process for the early identification of new technologies Become part of research and innovation networks Protect your production technology IP to keep an advantage8.Boost efficiency.Having been the m

226、ost important lever in classical manufacturing,achieving efficiency is still one of the most important levers for companies.Concrete measures to take might include:Maximize operational excellence before investing in I4.0/automation Define an overall I4.0 strategy and global rollout plan based on tec

227、hnology screening and use case analysis Systematically analyze process improvement potential,including in indirect manufacturing areas,e.g.robotic process automationaddition,scale becomes equally important to have a significant say in the priority your suppliers give you(e.g.semiconductors).Thus,par

228、tnerships are more and more important.Concrete measures to take might include:Partner with leaders from other industries to accelerate innovation and assure access to new technologies(e.g.Rio Tinto and Apple for green aluminum)Assure access to critical know-how through takeovers or exclusive partner

229、ships with key technology suppliers(e.g.Tesla buying Grohmann Engineering)Set up manufacturing clusters for production asset sharing Join platforms(like Catena-X)to set up a smart exchange of data along the value chain and optimize overall processes Co-design for joint manufacturing with customers4.

230、Consider new business models that reinvent how you create value.Next Generation Manufacturing is not simply about doing things differently;its also about doing different things.Consider your opportunities for new business models,such as:Offer manufacturing as a service Change manufacturing asset uti

231、lization to pay-per-use,i.e.pay your supplier only for the time you actually use a machine Open your capacities to competitors by carving out selected processes into an independent company(e.g.MAN foundry)Sell manufacturing data sets,e.g.performance data of specific machine types5.Leverage digital t

232、echnologies.Digitalizing the shop floor will enable efficiency and transparency gains and thus serve as an enabler for most of the other levers.Concrete measures to take might include:Use automation,robots,and AI-enabled production planning and execution Use digitalization to better connect with you

233、r customers(ordering,order management)as well as your supply chain(supply chain connectivity systems)with the aim of increasing trust and reducing stock-keeping requirements Leverage your data by using analytics as well as cloud and edge computing to generate insights that will help you develop furt

234、her21Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act22 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|一家汽车供应商重回快车道一家汽车供应商重回快车道客户端客户端一家营业额超过10亿欧元的汽车供应商，在全球近20个地点拥有5,000多名员工。公司简介公司简介总部FTE 的位置总部FTE 的位置收入收入德国5,000 名员工10亿欧元在价值链中的位置在价值链中的位置原材料第 3 层2级第一层代工制造足迹制造足迹全球约 20 个地点全球约 20 个地点资料来源：公司资料；罗兰贝格业务描述业务描述汽车零部件的开发和生产为上述产品提供售后服务和支持An automotive s

235、upplier moves back into the fast laneCASESTUDYTHE CLIENTAn automotive supplier with over EUR 1 bn turnover and more than 5,000 employees in almost 20 locations globally.Company profileSource:Company information;Roland BergerBusiness description Development and production of automotive components Pro

236、vision of after-sales services and support for said productsLocation of headquartersPosition in the value chainManufacturing footprintFTERevenueGermany 5,000 employees EUR 1 bnRaw materialTier 3Tier 2Tier 1OEM20 locations around the world22 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动23|挑战

237、挑战一家传统的家族企业现在面临：来自OEM客户的巨大成本压力以及来自亚洲低成本供应商的竞争 推动产品创新而不是生产创新的压力越来越大推动产品创新而不是生产创新的压力越来越大建立生产工艺技术能力需要大量投资制造深度但没有明确的战略方向制造深度但没有明确的战略方向大多数挑战与全球大趋势有关，这些趋势渗透到当今业务的许多方面，并且难以用现有方法解决：原始设备制造商将可持续性要求提高为采购标准原始设备制造商将可持续性要求提高为采购标准由于对关键商品（例如半导体）的控制有限而产生的供应链风险 每个地区的专有技术能力的可用性和积累每个地区的专有技术能力的可用性和积累 政府和客户对产品原产地和区域生产的认识

238、不断提高政府和客户对产品原产地和区域生产的认识不断提高解决方案解决方案第一步是了解公司未来的战略和愿景。该公司代表什么以及它想在哪个领域发展？第二步是了解公司在新愿景方面的定位，从市场趋势开始，包括公司战略和行动以及制造方面。公司在六大趋势方面处于什么位置？它想去哪里发展？两者之间的区别如下面的蜘蛛图所示，是我们发现的下一代制造机会制造部门最有可能利用不同的趋势来提高其绩效，将自己定位为真正的价值创造者，并提高整体公司业绩。事实证明，我们的客户在所有趋势中都具有巨大潜力，尤其是在利用可持续性和位置/区域化趋势方面。通过弥合这一差距，我们的客户将能够更好地提高其竞争地位并应对其面临的挑战。在与客

239、户合作仔细选择对我们发现的关键差距影响最大的杠杆后，我们制作了一个优先级的杠杆列表（所有这些都包含一长串专门为解决机会而量身定制的措施）。突出显示的杠杆对我们的客户特别有吸引力，因为该公司非常成熟（因此已经采取行动提高效率）并且已经实施了解决制造某些方面的数字化战略。经过深入讨论，该列表被转换为影响力矩阵，这是一个路线图，用于弥合已识别的差距并从公司当前的制造足迹中释放新价值。在这里，我们能够将传统的、众所周知的措施（例如效率和自动化提高）以及相对较新的杠杆（例如重新思考增值和可持续性）聚集在一起。这为客户提供了“速赢”和长期措施的路线图，这将帮助公司实现其目标，并将制造从单纯的成本中心转变为

240、真正的资产，为客户、股东和员工释放新的价值。THE CHALLENGEA traditional,family-owned company now faced:Immense cost pressure from their OEM customers and competition from low-cost suppliers in Asia Increasing pressure to drive product innovation instead of production innovation Heavy investments required to build up produ

241、ction process technology capabilities Manufacturing depth but no clear strategic directionMost challenges were related to global megatrends that penetrate many aspects of business today and are difficult to resolve with established methods:Increasing sustainability requirements by the OEMs as purcha

242、sing criteria Supply chain risks arising due to limited control over critical goods(e.g.semiconductors)Know-how capability availability and build-up in each region Growing awareness around product origin and regional production by governments and customersTHE SOLUTIONThe first step was to understand

243、 the strategy and the vision of the company going forward.What did the company stand for and where did it want to play?The second step was to understand how the company was positioned with respect to its new vision,starting from the market trends,both in terms of corporate strategy and actions and i

244、n manufacturing.Where did the company stand in terms of the six megatrends and where did it want to go?The difference between the two,illustrated in the spider diagram below,was the Next Generation Manufacturing opportunity we identified where the manufacturing unit had the most potential to leverag

245、e the different trends to boost its performance,position itself as a true valuegenerator,and improve overall company performance.HOur client,it turned out,had significant potential in all of the trends,but especially in leveraging sustainability and location/regionalization trends.By bridging this g

246、ap,our client would be better able to improve its competitive positioning and address the challenges it faced.IAfter working with the client to carefully select the levers with the most impact on the critical gaps we identified,we made a prioritized list of levers(all of which contain a long list of

247、 measures specifically tailored to address opportunities).The highlighted levers were especially attractive to our client,because the company was quite mature(thus had already taken action to boost efficiency)and had already implemented a digitalization strategy that addressed some aspects of manufa

248、cturing.After a thorough discussion,this list was converted into an Impact-Effort Matrix,a roadmap to bridge the identified gaps and unlock new value from the companys current manufacturing footprint.Here,we were able to cluster traditional,well-known measures such as efficiency and automation incre

249、ase as well as relatively new levers such as rethinking value add and sustainability.This gave the client a roadmap of both quick wins and long-term measures that will help the company reach its goals and transform manufacturing from just a cost center to a real asset,unlocking new value for custome

250、rs,shareholders,and employees.23Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act24 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|HNGM机会蜘蛛网NGM机会蜘蛛网如何将制造业定位为真正的价值创造者可持续性将继续存在4数字化取胜3行业颠覆2走在最前列1民粹主义崛起位置更重要制造战略中解决趋势的程度企业战略在何种程度上解决了趋势资料来源：罗兰贝格向大规模个性化转型1：战略中没有解决趋势，也没有设定目标2：部分确定趋势，部分确定目标和措施部分确定趋势，部分确定目标和措施3：战略、措施和目标纳入趋势战略、措施和目标纳入趋势4：趋势是战略的关键基石，措

251、施实施效果显著HThe NGM opportunity spiderweb HOW TO POSITION MANUFACTURING AS A TRUE VALUE GENERATOR Sustainability is here to stayTransformation to mass individualizationIndustry disruption at the forefrontDigitalization to winLocation matters morePopulism on the riseDegree to which trend is addressed in

252、manufacturing strategy 1:The trend is not addressed in the strategy and no targets have been set2:Trend is partly identified,and targets and measures partly defined3:Trend incorporated in strategy and measures and targets are detailed4:Trend is a key cornerstone of the strategy,measures implemented

253、with visible resultsDegree to which trend is addressed in corporate strategySource:Roland Berger123424 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing下一代制造思考：行动思考：行动25|I解锁新价值解锁新价值高效的影响力矩阵示例影响影响重新思考增值重新思考增值（例如，开发新的制造能力，转变制造与购买）可转型和自动化的车间（例如实施模块化/平台制造和具有数字化调度的小批量）生态系统和生态系统和新的伙伴关系方法（例如建立工业制造集群和大学伙伴关系）循环经济设计循环经

254、济设计（例如设计可回收产品）努力努力效率工业4.0伙伴关系/商业模式可持续性资料来源：罗兰贝格通过流程优化提高成本竞争力（例如利用精益六西格码，减少开销）虚拟工厂虚拟工厂（例如，使用AR/VR、数字孪生）优步化制造（例如共享资产，实施按使用付费的生产资产）ESG透明度ESG透明度（例如跟踪CO2排放，实施KPI监控）CASESTUDYIUnlocking new valueEXAMPLE OF A HIGHLY EFFECTIVE IMPACT-EFFORT MATRIX Cost competitiveness by process optimization (e.g.leverage Le

255、an Six Sigma,reduce overhead)Virtual factory(e.g.use AR/VR,digital twins)Transformable&automated shopfloor(e.g.implement modular/platform manufacturing and smaller lot sizes with digitalized scheduling)Uberized manufacturing(e.g.share assets,implement pay-per-use production assets)ESG transparency (

256、e.g.track CO2 emissions,implement KPI monitoring)Value-add rethought(e.g.develop new manufacturing capabilities,shift make vs.buy)Design for circular economy (e.g.design recyclable products)Ecosystems&new methods of partnership(e.g.set up industry manufacturing clusters and university partnerships)I

257、mpactEffortSource:Roland BergerEfficiencyIndustry 4.0Partnerships/business modelsSustainability25Next Generation Manufacturing|Think:Act26 思考：行动思考：行动下一代制造|结论-过去和未来的功能几十年过去了，传统观点认为制造业是聪明的高管想要逃避的艰难、混乱的业务，地缘政治和物理环境的变化以及技术的进步可能很快就会改变这种共识。特斯拉和米其林等世界一流公司的例子表明，制造业仍然具有重要意义。在这个新时代，制造并不容易它什么时候容易过？但它可能很快就会再次成为

258、一个伟大的时刻，因为制造商向他们的客户提供的产品和解决方案比以前认为的更适合他们的精确需求和愿望。并非所有制造商都能实现这一转变。许多人将继续努力以二十世纪的战略应对二十一世纪的挑战。改变所需的学习可能过于深刻，而为获取价值而制定的新战略与他们以前的传统经验相去甚远。但有了正确的商业模式和正确的技术组合，您就不必成为恐龙中的一员。制造部门也可以通过成为价值创造者而不是削减成本的目标来提高他们在组织中的重要性。现在融合的大趋势提供了一个独特的机会，使这个经常被忽视的部门成为组织内的明星。政府可能是这项努力的重要盟友。政策制定者应注意，各国可以通过利用这些大趋势来获得竞争优势，从而加强其制造业部门

259、、关键的经济驱动力和就业提供者以及税收和财富的重要来源。区域化和其他重要驱动力的复苏表明，低成本是有限度的，现在可以在国内产生价值。没有多少空闲时间了。汽车行业等主要制造业的变革已经在进行中。机器学习和增材制造等革命性技术的新用途每天都在被发现。想要在这个新世界中发挥作用的公司将需要尽快发明一个。AFTER DECADES in which conventional wisdom considered manufacturing a tough,messy business smart executives would want to escape,changes in the geopoli

260、tical and the physical environments and advances in technology may soon alter that consensus.The example of such world-beating companies as Tesla and Michelin shows that manufacturing is still relevant.Manufacturing wont be easy in this new era when was it ever an easy business?but it may soon be a

261、great one again,as manufacturers deliver to their customers products and solutions better suited to their precise needs and desires than previously considered possible.Not all manufacturers will be able to make this transition.Many will keep on trying to meet twenty-first century challenges with twe

262、ntieth century strategies.The learning required to change may be too profound and the development of new strategies for capturing value too far removed from their previous conventional experience.But with the right business model and the right mix of technologies,you dont have to be one of the dinos

263、aurs.Manufacturing departments can also raise their importance in their organization by becoming value generators instead of targets for cost cutting.The now converging mega-trends offer a unique opportunity to make this often-overlooked department a star within the organization.Governments may be a

264、n important ally in this effort.Policymakers should note that countries can strengthen their manufacturing sectors,a key economic driver and provider of employment,and a substantial generator of taxes and wealth,by leveraging these megatrends to gain a competitive advantage.The resurgence of regiona

265、lization and other important drivers show that low cost has a limit and value can now be generated right at home.There is not much time to spare.Changes in major manufacturing industries,such as the automotive sector,are already underway.New uses for revolutionary technologies,such as machine learning and additive manufacturing,are being found every day.Companies that want a role in this new world will need to invent one soon.Conclusion The once and future function26 Think:Act|Next Generation Manufacturing