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1、Never Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter:Europes Gas Balance for 2023-2024The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Throu
2、gh its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,11 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to
3、the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLith
4、uaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouth Afri
5、caThailandUkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYNever Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter:Europes Gas Balance for 2023-2024 Page|3 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Summary Russias natural gas deliveries to the European Union by pipeline halved in the firstten months of 2022 compared with the same period in 2021,a drop of
6、60 billion cubicmetres(bcm).For the full year,Russias pipeline supplies are expected to decline by over55%,a drop of 80 bcm,putting unprecedented pressure on both European and global gasmarkets.EU gas storage sites are now 95%full putting them 5%,or 5 bcm,above their 5-yearaverage.The process of fil
7、ling EU storages over the summer of 2022 benefitted from twofactors that might not be repeated in 2023:30 bcm of Russian gas supplied to the EUvia pipeline,and lower LNG imports by China due to its economic slowdown and Covid-induced lockdowns.The cushion provided by the current mild temperatures,lo
8、wer gas prices and highstorage levels should not lead to overly optimistic predictions about the future.Thecombination of lower-than-normal gas demand in October and persistently strong LNGinflows has put strong downward pressure on day-ahead prices,which fell below USD10/MMBtu by the end of October
9、 against an all-time high of USD 100/MMBtu at the endof August.However,Europe is not out of the woods yet,and our analysis identifies somesignificant risks ahead in 2023 and 2024.Global LNG supply is expected to increase by only 20 bcm in 2023,much less thanthe likely additional reduction in Russian
10、 pipeline deliveries.Russian pipeline gasdeliveries to the EU in 2022 are set to reach around 60 bcm.But in 2023,they will in allprobability drop to less than half that amount and could cease completely.Chinas LNG imports could rebound next year to close to their 2021 levels aseconomic growth recove
11、rs after Covid-related lockdowns.This would capture over 85%of the expected increase in global LNG supply,much of which has in any case alreadybeen contracted to China,thereby limiting the amount of LNG cargoes available to theEuropean market in 2023.If Russian pipeline gas supplies to the EU cease
12、completely and Chinese LNGimports recover to 2021 levels,Europe could face a supply-demand gap of 30 bcmduring the key summer period for refilling gas storage in 2023.This gap couldrepresent almost half the gas required to fill storage sites to 95%capacity by the startof the 2023-24 heating season.M
13、ore rapid deployment of energy efficiency measures,renewables and heat pumpsis needed to reduce the risk of a worsening energy and gas crisis.This will requireimmediate action from governments.A further push to accelerate structural changes andreduce gas consumption is essential not only for Europes
14、 clean energy transitions but alsofor its energy security and the wellbeing of its citizens and industries.The IEA will present a roadmap for securing Europes gas balance for next wintershowing what is needed to ensure storage sites are filled to 95%capacity by the beginningof the 2023-24 heating se
15、ason and to structurally reduce gas consumption during thewinter.Never Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter:Europes Gas Balance for 2023-2024 Page|4 IEA.CC BY 4.0.As winter approaches,a combination of favourable LNG market dynamics,robust pipeline deliveries from non-Russian suppliers,lower demand,a
16、nd policy actions has given Europe a chance to sidestep some of the worst immediate impacts of Russias steep cuts to natural gas deliveries Russias pipeline gas deliveries to the European Union halved in the first tenmonths of 2022 compared with last years levels.The decline in absolute termswas 60
17、bcm,the equivalent of over 10%of the global LNG trade.The steep declinein Russian gas supplies coincided with multi-year lows in European hydro andnuclear power output(down by 20%and 16%year-on-year,respectively),puttinghuge pressure on European gas markets.Gas prices on the Dutch Title Transfer Fac
18、ility(TTF)a leading European gashub averaged over EUR 130/MWh(USD 40/MMBtu)year-to-date,almost eighttimes the 5-year average between 2016 and 2020.The all-time high pricesattracted record LNG inflows to the European Union and the United Kingdom,rising by 65%or over 50 bcm year-on-year in the first t
19、en months of 2022.Gas demand in the European Union and the United Kingdom in the first 10 monthsof 2022 was down by an estimated 10%,or over 40 bcm,compared with the sameperiod a year earlier.This was mainly the result of lower consumption across theresidential,commercial and industrial sectors,but
20、it also includes some efficiencygains and behavioural responses to higher prices.It also reflects demanddestruction,particularly in gas-intensive industries.Non-Russian pipeline supplies to Europe increased substantially.Pipelinedeliveries from Norway rose by 5%(5 bcm)and flows from Azerbaijan via t
21、heTrans Adriatic Pipeline surged by close to 50%(3 bcm)year-on-year in the firstten months of 2022.In both cases,export infrastructure is running close tonameplate capacity.Algeria increased its pipeline supplies to Europe by over 10%(or 3 bcm)on available export routes in the first ten months of th
22、e year,and hassome limited upsideNever Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter:Europes Gas Balance for 2023-2024 Page|5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Year-on-year changes in global LNG exports and imports by key regions,January October 2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Strong European demand for LNG led to a reconfiguration of globa
23、l LNG flows asincreases in LNG supply(23 bcm)were not sufficient to meet Europes rapidlyrising LNG imports.Higher LNG flows towards Europe were enabled in part byChinas LNG imports falling by 20%(or 19 bcm)year-to-date as it drasticallyreduced spot procurements.Europes thirst for LNG also disrupted
24、gas andelectricity supply in more price-sensitive markets,including in South Asia.Mild weather,healthy storage levels and strong LNG supply have led to a significant fall in some natural gas price markers The combination of higher non-Russian gas imports and lower demand wasinstrumental for Europe t
25、o offset Russias gas supply cuts and enable a near-record build-up of storage levels.Storage injections were 22%,or 13 bcm,abovetheir 5-year average in 2022.At the beginning of November,EU storage sites wereclose to 95%full well above the European Unions 80%target and well-alignedwith the IEAs 10-Po
26、int Plan to Reduce the European Unions Reliance on RussianNatural Gas.Unseasonably mild weather in October reduced gas demand from distributionnetworks(concentrated in the commercial and residential sectors)by over 30%year-on-year and effectively delayed the start of the heating season in mostEurope
27、an markets.This steep decline in demand coincided with a persistentlystrong influx of LNG cargoes,which have limited immediate flexibility to changedestination,as deliveries are typically scheduled several weeks in advance.Lower-than-expected demand,together with high LNG inflow and healthy storagel
28、evels,pushed down European gas prices.Month-ahead prices on TTF fell to just01020304050Yoy change(bcm)EUOtherEuropeLower demand in AsiaLower demand in South AmericaDemand in other regionsLNG export growth from the USSupply growth from other regionsChinaNever Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter:Euro
29、pes Gas Balance for 2023-2024 Page|6 IEA.CC BY 4.0.below EUR 100/MWh(USD 30/MMBtu)by the end of October.This was less than one-third of the all-time high at the end of August but still more than five times the 5-year average during the 2016-20 period.Day-ahead prices which are morereflective of shor
30、t-term supply-demand factors fell below USD 10/MMBtu at theend of October,while next-hour prices dropped into negative territory for a shortperiod on 24 October amid infrastructure constraints in the TTF market zone.Day-ahead and month-ahead TTF prices(August October 2022)EU gas storage levels (1 No
31、vember 2022)IEA.CC BY 4.0.The temporary comfort provided by todays market conditions should not lead to overly optimistic conclusions about the future:a cold spell could quickly change sentiment and Europes gas balance faces even tougher tests in 2023 While EU gas inventories are standing 5%,or 5 bc
32、m,above their 5-year average,this additional storage cushion could be quickly erased:5 bcm is just two days ofEU gas demand during a cold spell.There is a wide range of possible outcomes for EU gas storage at the end of thiswinter heating season.Assuming no or very low Russian gas deliveries to theE
33、uropean Union this winter,and average levels of LNG imports(around 13 bcmper month),then gas storage levels could be anywhere between 5%and 35%bythe end of the heating season,depending on demand trajectories over the comingmonths.Variable demand trajectories,which can be influenced by policies as we
34、ll as pricesand weather,translate into a variety of future scenarios for gas injection needsduring the summer of 2023.These vary between 60 bcm and 90 bcm in order toreach 95%storage levels by the beginning of the 2023-24 heating season.050030035001-Aug-2209-Aug-2217-Aug-2225-Aug-2202-Sep
35、-2210-Sep-2218-Sep-2226-Sep-2204-Oct-2212-Oct-2220-Oct-2228-Oct-22EUR/MWhTTF month-aheadTTF day-ahead02040608020022bcmEU storage levels5-year averageNever Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter:Europes Gas Balance for 2023-2024 Page|7 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Considering current market tren
36、ds,our assessment today is that the storageinjection needs of the European Union and the United Kingdom will be 68 bcm(including 1.68 bcm of injections to the Rough storage in the United Kingdom).This is based on the assumption that European gas demand during thisNovember-March period is 11%below it
37、s 5-year average.A colder-than-averagewinter could deplete European storage levels faster,resulting in injection needs inthe range of 80-90 bcm.Potential EU and UK storage levels by end March 2023 Resulting injection needs in summer 2023 to reach 95%fill level IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:assuming no Russian
38、piped gas to the European Union from 1st of January and average(13 bcm/month)LNG imports into the European Union and the United Kingdom.Measures to limit short-term demand and storage depletion,alongside morestructural measures to bring down gas demand,are absolutely essential toposition Europe for
39、next year.The drive to refill Europes gas storages for the2023-24 winter heating season has to begin now.Some of the factors that helped Europe in 2022 are unlikely to be as favourable in 2023:in particular,Russian deliveries are likely to be considerably lower and competition from China for availab
40、le LNG cargoes considerably higherAlthough Russian gas deliveries to Europe were cut sharply during 2022,theywere close to normal levels for much of the first half of the year.Total pipelinesupply from Russia in 2022 is likely to amount to around 60 bcm.It is highlyunlikely that Russia will deliver
41、another 60 bcm of piped gas in 2023.If supplyremains at current levels,then Russian pipeline supply would be around 25 bcmin 2023.It is also entirely possible that Russian deliveries could fall further orcease entirely.Non-Russian pipeline suppliers have limited upside potential,with both Azerbaijan
42、and Norway supplying close to their nameplate capacity in 2022.In the case ofAlgeria,some limited upside is expected with the development of gas fields in theBerkine South basin.0%10%20%30%40%13%demandreduction5y average9%demandreductionno demandreductionFill levels02040608010013%demandreduction2022
43、 injections9%demandreductionno demandreductionbcmInjection needs to 95%Never Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter:Europes Gas Balance for 2023-2024 Page|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Change in non-Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Europe IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 20 bcm in 2023,s
44、upported mainlyby the ramp-up of the Calcasieu Pass LNG facility in the United States and theCoral South LNG facility in Mozambique,as well as the return of the Freeport LNGfacility in the United States.However,this increased LNG supply will not be notsufficient to offset the likely decline in Russi
45、as pipeline deliveries to the EuropeanUnion.Domestic gas production in the European Union is set to decline in 2023.In theNetherlands,production at the Groningen field was capped at 2.8 bcm for the2022-23 Gas Year1,down from 4.5 bcm in the 2021-22 Gas Year.Production fromsmall fields in the Netherla
46、nds also continues to decline.In Denmark,the restartof the Tyra field was postponed to the 2023-24 winter meaning that it will notcontribute to the refilling of gas storages during summer 2023.In the UnitedKingdom,gas production recovered strongly in 2022 and the potential for furthershort-term grow
47、th is limited.Even more significantly,Chinas LNG imports could rebound next year.Chinaslower LNG imports in the first ten months of 2022 were a key enabler of higherLNG availability to Europe.A return to stronger Chinese economic growth andsome easing of lockdowns could bring 2023 LNG imports back t
48、o their 2021 levels(108 bcm),which would capture over 85%of next years expected increase inglobal LNG supply and limit the amount of LNG available to the European market.China has pursued a strong LNG contracting strategy in recent years.As a result,Chinas reliance on destination-fixed LNG contracts
49、 is set to increase from 88 bcmper year in 2022 to 100 bcm per year in 2023.This effectively means that China1 A Gas Year starts on 1 October and ends on 30 September.-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%-30-20-0222023Y-o-y change(%)Y-o-y change(bcm)NorwayNorth AfricaAzerbaijanY-o-y changeNe
50、ver Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter:Europes Gas Balance for 2023-2024 Page|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.will have the right-of-first-refusal on an additional 12 bcm of LNG well over half of the expected increase in global LNG supply in 2023.In mid-October,it was widely reported that Chinas National Developm
51、ent andReform Commission had asked state-owned gas importers to stop reselling LNGto buyers in Europe and Asia to ensure stable gas supply ahead of winter.Structure of Chinas LNG import contracts IEA.CC BY 4.0.EU gas exports to Ukraine are set to rise.Ukraine started the 2022-23 heatingseason with s
52、torage levels at just 14 bcm well below their historic average.Evenassuming a 25%reduction in the countrys winter gas consumption,storage sitesare expected to be severely depleted by the end of March 2023.Our analysisindicates that Ukraine would require at least 5 bcm of gas imports from theEuropean
53、 Union during the summer of 2023 to replenish its storage levels to 14bcm by the start of the 2023-24 heating season.Europe could face a 30 bcm shortfall in the gas it needs to fuel its economy and sufficiently refill storage sites during the summer of 2023,jeopardising its preparations for the wint
54、er of 2023-24 A full cessation of Russian pipeline gas supplies to the European Union combinedwith a return of Chinese LNG imports to their 2021 levels would lead to a shortfallof 30 bcm of gas in Europe during the summer of 2023,the period when gasstorage sites need to be refilled.This equates to a
55、lmost half of the injections required to fill storage sites to 95%ofcapacity by the start of the 2023-24 heating season.This is based on the020406080020202120222023bcm/yDestination-fixedDestination-flexibleNever Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter:Europes Gas Balance for 2023-2024 Page|1
56、0 IEA.CC BY 4.0.assumption that natural gas demand in the European Union and the United Kingdom will decline by 11%compared to its 5-year average during the November 2022 March 2023 period and that Europes gas storage sites will be around 30%full at the end of this winter.Breakdown of the summer 202
57、3 natural gas balance of the European Union and the United Kingdom in case of full cessation of Russian flows and limited LNG availability,April September 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.A recovery in European hydropower generation to its 5-year average and highernuclear power output in France(aligned with the m
58、id-range of EDFs latestguidance)could reduce the shortfall to 22 bcm,but it would not eliminate it.This puts the spotlight back on natural gas demand.Shortfalls in available supplywould put immense pressure on prices again,but this could be relieved byaccelerated structural changes in European gas d
59、emand.An even faster deployment of renewables,heat pumps and energy efficiency measures can mitigate the risks of a worsening energy and gas crisis While healthy storage levels and unseasonably mild weather at the beginning ofthe 2022-23 winter season provide some temporary relief to gas and related
60、energy markets in Europe,our analysis indicates that supply-demandfundamentals are set to tighten in 2023.A more rapid deployment of renewables,heat pumps and energy efficiencymeasures can mitigate the risk of a worsening energy and gas crisis.However,this would require immediate action from governm
61、ents.The IEA will present a roadmap for securing Europes gas balance for nextwinter showing what is needed to ensure storage sites are filled to 95%capacity02550755200225DemandSupply-demandgapIncrementalLNGLNGAzerbaijanNorth AfricaDomesticproductionNorwaybcm2022 summer demandneedsInjectio
62、nExports to UkraineNever Too Early to Prepare for Next Winter:Europes Gas Balance for 2023-2024 Page|11 IEA.CC BY 4.0.by the beginning of the 2023-24 heating season and to structurally reduce gas consumption during the winter.Key measures include:Speeding up investments in energy efficiency improvem
63、ents.Faster deployment of renewables.Accelerated installation of heat pumps.Identifying remaining fuel-switching options in industry and the power sector.Behavioural changes.A further push to accelerate structural changes and reduce gas consumption isessential not only for Europes clean energy trans
64、itions but also for its energysecurity and the wellbeing of its citizens and industries.The current market context requires greater attention to instruments andmeasures that could facilitate investment in methane abatement options.International Energy Agency(IEA).This work reflects the views of the
65、IEA Secretariat but does not necessarily reflect those of the IEAs individual Member countries or of any particular funder or collaborator.The work does not constitute professional advice on any specific issue or situation.The IEA makes no representation or warranty,express or implied,in respect of
66、the works contents(including its completeness or accuracy)and shall not be responsible for any use of,or reliance on,the work.Subject to the IEAs Notice for CC-licenced Content,this work is licenced under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.This document and any map included her
67、ein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Unless otherwise indicated,all material presented in figures and tables is derived from IEA data and analysis.IEA Publications International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.org Contact information:www.iea.org/contact Typeset in France by IEA-November 2022Cover design:IEA