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1、Global Marine Insurance ReportAstrid SeltmannVice chair,IUMI Facts&Figures CommitteeAnalyst/Actuary,The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers(Cefor)OsloChicagoCopenhagenChicago,finally!Chicago,finally!Contents Issues 2022:What occupies us this year?Global marine insurance market P&I Offshore energy
2、Cargo Hull Special issues The 2022 oracleMarine insurance figures as of 2021,with some trends into 1st half year 2022.Issues 2022 Ukraine war(sanctions/what(not)covered,claims,energy prices,)(NB:war risk insurance not part of this presentation)Inflation(values,cargo,energy/fuel,claims,)Pandemic(post
3、-pandemic effects,new waves/viruses)ESG/sustainability/emission reduction Fires Nat-cat(2022:Draughts/wildfires across whole northern hemisphere,floods)Contents Issues 2022 Global marine insurance market P&I Offshore energy Cargo Hull Special issues The 2022 oraclePlease note&DisclaimerFigures refle
4、ct the 2022 state of reporting.Figures include estimates for a number of countries.Data for previous years often adjusted retrospectively.Data is reported to the degree possible according to the agreed IUMI definitions(see here)but may not be consistent across countries.For comparison between years,
5、use the updated premium and loss ratio data as of 2022!1)Comparing this years presentation to last years presentation may lead to wrong conclusions as it ignores the retrospective update of figures.Focus is on identifying market trends.Absolute figures are subject to error margins(reporting backlog,
6、retrospective adjustments,wrong in-/exclusion of portfolios).All information given is of informational and non-binding character.Figures related to the marine markets performance reflect market averages.They do not disclose single units results.As with all averages,individual units may out-or underp
7、erform compared to the average.IUMI aims to provide information as available and raise consciousness for the importance of a fact-based evaluation of the risk exposure covered and inspire everyone to critically evaluate real and seeming facts!1)for IUMI members at https:/ premiums 2021 by line of bu
8、sinessTotal estimate 2021:33.0 USD billion/Change 2020-2021:6.7%NB:Exchange rate effects23.5%57.4%7.3%11.8%2021Global HullTransport/CargoMarine LiabilityOffshore/Energy*other than P&I covered by clubs of International Group.0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%20218Transport/CargoHullOf
9、fshore/EnergyMarineLiabilityPremiums&shares by line 2018-2021Increase in premiums since 2020.NB:Absolute premiums reflect a combination of(insured)trade volume/values and rates per unit.Combination of various effects(world trade volume/values,market conditions,exchange rates).Shares(%)02468101214161
10、82020218Absolute premiums(USD billion)Transport/CargoGlobal HullOffshore/EnergyMarine LiabilityUSD bill.Marine premiums 2021 by regionTotal:33.0 USD billionNB:Some figures changed retrospectively,graphnot directly comparable with previous presentations.47.2%29.3%10.3%7.7%5.5%2021EuropeAsi
11、a/PacificLatin AmericaNorth AmericaOther02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00012,000,00014,000,00016,000,00018,000,00020,000,0002000021EuropeAsia/PacificLatin AmericaNorth AmericaMiddle EastAfricaPremium(USD)by region 2012-2021as of 2022Europe:After years of
12、 decreases,bottom passed with upward trend starting 2020.Asia:increase continues.Various influences.Market conditions,exchange rates 2021:33.0 USD bill.2020:31.0 USD bill.(as of 2022)(underreporting in 2019)USD Exchange rates 2005-2022Index 2005=100%,against selected currencies,as of December each y
13、ear(2022 as of June)Statistics in USD influenced by exchange rates.Diverse developments between currencies.Premium trends may differ in local currency,particularly for cargo.60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%140%150%160%2005200620072008200920000022CNY(China)JPY(
14、Japan)EUR(Euro)NOK(Norway)GBP(UK)Contents Issues 2022 Global marine insurance market P&I Offshore energy Cargo Hull Special issues The 2022 oracle62%29%6%3%UKNordicJapanUSCalls 2021(USD bill.):UK:1.91 Nordic:0.02Japan:0.18US:0.09Total:3.10P&I International Group IncomeGross calls 2021(premiums)by op
15、erational location,Source:Int.Group of P&I Clubs+5.1%+5.8%+0.8%+14.0%+5.4%by country of registration44%19%16%12%6%3%BermudaUKLuxembourgNordicJapanUSIn 2019,a number of severe casualties ends period oflow major claims impact.2021 reported claims doubled.COVID-19 impact stronger thanon other lines(cre
16、w,passengers).2022 status per 5 August.Claims will still develop.Ukraine war:Sanctions preventrenewal of many coverages into2022/23 renewal period.P&I complex business with highliabilities.More information at www.igpandi.orgP&I Pool claims by policy yearSource:Int.Group of P&I Clubs,Claims as of 5 A
17、ugust 2022Contents Issues 2022 Global marine insurance market P&I Offshore energy Cargo Hull Special issues The 2022 oracleOffshore energy premium 2021 Total estimate:3.9 USD billion/Change 2020-2021:6.9%UK(Lloyds),33.2%UK(IUA),32.1%Mexico,7.1%Brazil,6.8%Japan,3.1%Malaysia,2.8%Nordic,2.7%Italy,2.2%E
18、gypt,2.4%Nigeria,2.1%India,1.3%USA,0.2%Other,3.9%2021Offshore energy premium 2012-2021:bottom passedPremium started to rise again,bottom after decrease from 2014 seems reached in 2019.Correlated with oil price.IUMI:Premiums as reported by associations.Some double-reporting due to global nature of bu
19、siness.=Some overestimation of global premium.Willis:Derived from Lloyds triangulation.Calculation of global premium assumes that Lloyds represents 70%of market over time.Recent reduction in Lloyds market share not taken into account.Underestimation of global premium.Trend not robust against changes
20、 in Lloyds market share.Kazakhstan and some other countries:no data available.01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0002000021OtherUSAIndiaEgyptNigeriaItalyNordicMalaysiaJapanBrazilMexicoUK-IUA(2012)UK-LloydsWillis estimated upstream premium(assumption
21、Lloyds reflects 70%)0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.002005M012005M042005M072005M102006M012006M042006M072006M102007M012007M042007M072007M102008M012008M042008M072008M102009M012009M042009M072009M102010M012010M042010M072010M102011M012011M042011M072011M102012M012012M042012M072012M102013M012
22、013M042013M072013M102014M012014M042014M072014M102015M012015M042015M072015M102016M012016M042016M072016M102017M012017M042017M072017M102018M012018M042018M072018M102019M012019M042019M072019M102020M012020M042020M072020M102021M012021M042021M072021M102022M012022M042022M07BrentWTIAverage oil price per month
23、(USD/bbl)World bank commodity price data,January 2005-July 2022Extraordinary drop in 2020,followed by oil price rally into 2022.20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%20000022(Aug.1st)Global Offshore Energy PremiumOil price,Brent CrudeNo.Contracted RigsAverage Day Ra
24、tesEnergy premium versus mobiles,day rates,oil priceIndex 2005=100%(mobiles,day rates,oil price as of July 2022)Sources:Premiums:IUMI,Average Day Rates,No.Contracted Rigs:Clarksons Research,Oil Price:World Bank commodity price dataOil price increasing since 2021.In 2022 upswing in offshore activity(
25、more rigs active&day rates increasing).More activity generates usually more premium volume.Drop in oil price was followed by drop in premium.0246800246802000200042005200620072008200920000022(todate)Upstream losses excess US
26、$1mestimated worldwide Upstreampremium(US$)Possible deterioration of 2019 recordWELD Upstream Energy losses 2000-2022(excess of US$1m)versus estimated Upstream premium income Source:Willis Towers WatsonThe shadow of a significant incurred but as yet unquantified 2019 loss hangs over the market,despi
27、te the recent benign loss record.US$bnUS$bnSource:WTW/WTW Energy Loss Database as of August 16 2022(figures include both insured and uninsured losses)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%20000202021outstandingpaid 10th yearpaid 9th yearpaid 8th yearpaid 7th yearpaid 6th yearpaid 5th
28、yearpaid 4th yearpaid 3rd yearpaid 2nd yearpaid 1st year2019/2020:Big increase compared to last years status.Claims on youngest years will still develop.Fragile balance.Offshore energy gross loss ratios Europe*Underwriting years 2011-2021,incl.liability,as of Dec.2021,paid&outstanding as reported*Ll
29、oyds,IUA,NordicOffshore energy Summary COVID-19 temporarily reduced demand for oil but strong recovery from 2021.Ukraina war driving up energy prices.Activity catching up in 2022.Will the upswing last?Historically 18 months time lag between improved oil price and authorisation for expenditure.More r
30、isk retained in recent years.Insurance capacity not equally reduced.Premiums:bottom passed,some increase since 2021(but market capacity also on the rise again).Claims:recent years benign claims environment,but does it give the real picture?Increasing backlog in claims reporting,yet unquantified loss
31、 in 2019.Hurricane impact was reduced,but 2022 potential of becoming an active hurricane season.Fragile balance recent years between reduced premiums and modest claims impact.Risks/claims arising from unit reactivation may become bigger issue from 2022.Contents Issues 2022 Global marine insurance ma
32、rket P&I Offshore energy Cargo Hull Special issues The 2022 oracle38.5%33.7%10.9%7.7%5.5%2.6%2021EuropeAsia/PacificLatin AmericaNorth AmericaMiddle EastAfricaCargo premiums 2021 by regionTotal estimate:18.9 USD billion Change 2020-2021:8.0%Increases in both 2021 and 2022.Exchange rate effects strong
33、est oncargo premium.NB:Some figures changed retrospectively,graphnot directly comparable with previous presentations.Cargo premium by region-1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,0002000021EuropeAsia/PacificLatin Americ
34、aNorth AmericaMiddle EastAfricaStrongest growth in Asia,but what about 2022 and beyond?Cargo premiums 2021 by marketsTotal estimate:18.9 USD billionNB:Some figures changed retrospectively,graphnot directly comparable with previous presentations.Belgium1.7%Brazil4.3%China14.0%France4.4%Germany6.3%Ind
35、ia2.2%Italy2.1%Japan8.4%Mexico2.7%Netherlands2.1%Nordic1.4%Russia1.7%Singapore1.4%Spain1.2%UK(IUA)4.4%UK(Lloyds)7.8%USA8.0%Other25.8%20210500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0002000021ChinaJapanUSAGermanyUK(Lloyds)BrazilFranceUK(IUA)IndiaCargo premiums 2
36、012-21 Selected markets2014-15:strong USD reduces income of most countries.China growth accelerating in 2021 but uncertainty goingforward?Strong growth USA,more moderate growth otherregions(NB:exchange rate impact with stronger USD).Various influences.Global trade major driver.Differing market condi
37、tions,Exchange rate effects.From 2017 several currenciesstrengthened against USD.(underreporting in 2019)80%90%100%110%120%130%140%150%160%170%180%200000222023World Trade Values(Goods)-IMF April 2022World Trade Volume(Goods)-IMf April 2022Global Cargo Prem
38、iumCargo premium versus World trade values&volumeIndex 2005=100%COVID-19 caused short-term reduction in world trade,followed by strong recovery.Cargo premium follows world trade values.Lagged behind 2017-19 but upswing since 2020.Extended risk covers&increasing risk of event losses(accumulation)need
39、 to be taken into account.IMF update July 2022*:“Outlook gloomy and more uncertain”:Trade estimates adjusted downwards.*https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/07/26/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2022Source:World trade volume&values:International Monetary Fund(IMF).Photo:Astrid Seltm
40、annCargolossratiosPhoto:Astrid SeltmannCargo Gross*loss ratios underwriting year Europe*Underwriting years 2011-21,as reported at 1,2,3,4,5 years,Gross premiums,paid+outstanding claims2015,2016:Steeper increase than average pattern(increase in losses second year).2017 2019:Return to more normal(=fla
41、tter)development pattern.2020 starts at a low level.2021 starts at very low level.Lasting improvement,or only intermedaterelief due to pandemic effects(reduced trade/activity in periods,supplychain issues etc.)?*Technical break even:gross loss ratio does not exceed 100%minus the expense ratio(acquis
42、ition cost,capital cost,management expenses)*Data included from:Belgium,France,Germany,Netherlands,Italy,UK 30%40%50%60%70%80%001920202021Cargo Ultimate gross*loss ratios uw year Europe*After years with heavy event impact,concern about increasing expenses,loss ratios improve si
43、nce 2019.Outlier&Nat-cat event losses:2015:Tianjin port explosions2016:Hanjin,Amos-6 satellite2017:Hurricanes/Nat Cat2018:Mrsk Honam/Hurricanes2019:Fires,Golden Ray capsize2020:Nashville Tornados2021:X-Press Pearl,Ever Given(GA),Hurricane Ida2022:Wildfires/draughts(Europe,USA,China),Pakistan floods,
44、fires(Felicity Ace),activehurricane season?War?*Technical break even:gross loss ratio does not exceed 100%minus the expense ratio(acquisition cost,capital cost,management expenses)*Data included from:Belgium,France,Germany,Netherlands,Italy,UK-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2001420152016
45、200202021reportedIBNR Estimate(10 year pattern)0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%-200,000,000.00 400,000,000.00 600,000,000.00 800,000,000.00 1,000,000,000.00 1,200,000,000.00 1,400,000,000.00 1,600,000,000.0020000202021Gross premiumsIncurred clai
46、ms(paid+outstanding)Loss ratio incurredCargo Gross loss ratios accounting year USGross premiums,incurred claims(Underreporting)Superstorm SandyStrong increasein premiumsCargo Loss ratios accounting year Asia*Gross premiums,paid claims(USD)Stable 40-45%until 2014.Increase 2015-18.Probable impact by T
47、ianjin port explosions&Nat Cat.losses.Improving from 2019.*China,Japan,Hong Kong,India from 2015.Singapore not included(incurredfiguresavailable but cannot be split),China,Japan,Hong Kong only paid available.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%-1,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 5,000,000,00
48、0 6,000,000,00020000202021Gross premiumsPaid claimsPaid loss ratioCargo Loss ratios accounting year Latin America*Gross premiums,paid claims(USD)Mostly stable around average50-55%.Peak in 2015 related to major claim impact in one country.2020:underreporting of claims
49、in two countries.*Figures included from:Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica(from 2010),D.Republic(from 17),Ecuador,El Salvador(from 14),Guatemala,Honduras,Mexico,Panama,Paraguay(from 14),Peru,Venezuela(until 14).0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%-500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,
50、500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 3,000,000,00020082009200001920202021Gross premiumsPaid claimsPaid loss ratioCargo Summary As of 2021:Improved results across markets main driver upswing in trade(insurable volume)in combination with still somewhat reduced activ
51、ity due to supply chain issues(claims impact)COVID-19:drop in trade growth,then strong recovery.Increase in cargo premiums.Persisting challenges:Fires Misdeclared cargo Increased value accumulation on single sites(ports,vessels).Increase in severe weather conditions(wind/wave force,floods,wildfires/
52、draughts)Increased risk of large event losses(both Nat-cat and man made)Geopolitical tensions2022 Outlook uncertain War,new pandemic waves,climate change,supply chain bottlenecks,chip crisis Return to pre-Covid activity and increasing Nat-cat risk likely to increase claims impact.Contents Issues 202
53、2 Global marine insurance market P&I Offshore energy Cargo Hull Special issues The 2022 oracleHull premiums 2021 by regionTotal estimate:7.8 USD billionChange 2020 to 2021:4.1%50.1%36.2%8.6%4.0%0.3%0.7%2021EuropeAsia/PacificLatin AmericaNorth AmericaMiddle EastAfricaHull premium 2021 by marketsTotal
54、 estimate:7.8 USD billionChina11.9%France4.5%Italy4.7%Japan6.4%Korea,Republic2.9%Netherlands3.3%Nordic15.8%Singapore9.0%Spain1.8%UK(IUA)5.8%UK(Lloyds)7.1%USA3.2%Latin America8.6%Other15.2%2021Hull premium 2012-2021 Selected marketsNo comment.Cheers!0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,40
55、0,0001,600,0002000021NordicChinaUK(Lloyds)JapanSingaporeUK(IUA)Latin AmericaKorea,Republic of2021:renewal of big 2-year contractHull Portfolio trendsPhoto:Astrid Seltmann80%90%100%110%120%130%140%150%2005200620072008200920000192020202
56、12022Average gross tonAverage insuredvessel valueAgeAverage gross ton,age&vessel valuesUntil 2019 increasing gap between average vessel size and insured value.Insured values on the rise(driven by container vessels).Gap started to reduce.Will development continue?Average fleet age continues to increa
57、se(less new builds in recent years).NoMISNordic MarineInsurance Statistics-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%20022BulkCar/RoRoCargoChemical/ProductContainerPassengerSupply/OffshoreTankChange in insured values on renewal 2019-2022*Index,2006=100%Change in vessel values on renewals di
58、ffer strongly by segment.Reflect activity/demand.Booming container market,Supply/offshore not yet recovered from low oil price influence.Under unchanged market conditions some value reduction expected due to aging of vessel.NoMISNordic MarineInsurance Statistics*2022:Renewals Jan.-June50%75%100%125%
59、150%175%200%225%250%2005200620072008200920000022Gross tonnage(300 GT)No.Ships(300 GT)Global Marine HullPremiumAv.insured vesselvalue(Renewals&newbuilds-Cefor)Hull premium versus world fleetWorld fleet growth continues.Downward trend in hull premium and ves
60、sel valuesstarted to reverse in 2020.Upward trend in values driven by strong demand for particularly container vessels.Data:Hull premiums:IUMI,average insured vessel values:Cefor,GT/No.Ships:ISL(1stJan.)Hull Claims trendsPhoto:Astrid Seltmann0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%
61、25.0%30.0%35.0%2005200620072008200920000022partial claims(75%SI,right axis)Hull Claims frequency(H&M)Overall claims frequencyLong-term downward trend.Increase 2022 expected afterextraordinary drop in 2020 due to COVID-19(reducedactivity in some segments).S
62、till very moderate level.Total loss frequencyLong-term downward trend.Since 2019 very low levelaround 0.05%.NoMISNordic MarineInsurance Statistics020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,0002005200620072008200920000022 50 MUSD30-50 MUSD10-30 MUSD5-10 MUSD1-5 MU
63、SDIBNR 500,000 USDNoMISNordic MarineInsurance StatisticsContainer fire frequency by location:Upward trend for engine room and cargo firesRead more about fire trends?Cefor Annual Report 2021:https:/cefor.no/globalassets/documents/statistics/nomis/2021/2021_cefor_annual_report_final_lowr.pdfCefor anal
64、yses with special focus:https:/cefor.no/statistics/analysis-with-special-focus/0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 2012-2013 2014-2015 2016-2017 2018-2019 2020-2021Engine roomCargo areaAccommodationOtherNoMISNordic MarineInsurance StatisticsInflation expectations one asp
65、ectPartial claim cost per vessel versus steel price and exchange rate50%70%90%110%130%150%170%2005200620072008200920000022USD against EUR(annual exchange rate)Partial claim per vessel(incl.IBNR)Steel price indexNoMISNordic MarineInsurance StatisticsSource:
66、Cefor Hull Trends per June 2022 https:/cefor.no/statistics/nomis/2021/nomis-as-of-31-december-2021/Inflation in materials or labourcost likely to influence hull claims costs going forward.Hull Loss ratiosPhoto:Astrid SeltmannHull Gross*Loss ratios underwriting year Europe Underwriting years 2011-22,
67、as reported at 1,2,3,4,5 years,gross premiums,paid+outstanding claims2020 starts at similar level as 2019.2019 return to flatter development(combination of reduced claims and increasing premiums).2018:Impact of 2019 major losses(fires,other)against eroded premium base.2016 to 2018:Few major losses,b
68、ut 2017 impacted by hurricane yacht damage.Change in loss ratio pattern,strong increase 2ndyear.*Technical break even:gross loss ratio does not exceed 100%minus the expense ratio(acquisition cost,capital cost,management expenses)*Data included from:Belgium,France,Germany,Italy,Nordic(Cefor),UK,USA 2
69、0%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20000202021reportedIBNR estimate(based on 10-year pattern)Hull Ultimate gross*loss ratios EuropeUnderwriting years 2011-21,gross premiums,paid+outstanding claims(USD)Improvem
70、ent since 2019 after years ofunsustainable results.2020(and 2021?)pandemic effects:Extraordinary low claims impact due to reduced shipping activity/supply chain issues in periods.Some increase in 2021 as expected butstill moderate.2022 and beyond diffult to predict due to disruptions in market envir
71、onment.Return to full shipping activity and inflation increase probability of upwardtrend in claims frequency and cost.2014 strong major loss impact(fire at2German shipyard)2016-17 influenced by yacht damage(hurricanes)*Technical break even:gross loss ratio does not exceed 100%minus the expense rati
72、o(acquisition cost,capital cost,management expenses)*Data included from:Belgium,France,Germany,Italy,Nordic(Cefor),UK,some US data 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%-50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 400,000,000200
73、00202021Gross premiumsIncurred claims(paid+outstanding)Loss ratio incurredHull Gross loss ratios accounting year USGross premiums,incurred claimsunderreportingHull Gross loss ratios accounting year Asia*Gross premiums,paid claims*China,Japan,Hong Kong,India from 2015.Singapore not include
74、d.Incurred figuresavailable but cannot be split,for China,Japan,Hong Kong only paid available.After an increase 2015-2017,loss ratios improve sligthly.Paid claims relatively stable,mainly changes in premiuminfluencing loss ratios.NB:accounting year:claims attaching to uwyear are paid over several ac
75、counting years.0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%-500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,00020000202021Gross premiumsPaid claimsLoss ratio-paid claimsHull Gross*loss ratios accounting year Latin AmericaGross premiums,paid claimsNB:2
76、019/2020:Low claims due to claims releases from previous years.2021:Increase due to one 2-year renewal.*Figures in graph include:Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile(from 2012),Colombia,Costa Rica(from 10),D.Republic(from 17),Ecuador,Guatemala,Honduras(08-16),Mexico(from 12),Panama(from 10),Paraguay(14-16
77、),Peru,Venezuela(until 14).0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%-100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000 500,000,000 600,000,000 700,000,00020082009200001920202021Gross premiumsPaid claimsPaid loss ratioHull Summary ExposurePremium developme
78、nt passed bottom with recent upward trend.Gap between fleet growth and premiums/values starting to reduce.Big value increases in some segments(container)reflect demand.Supply/offshore not yet recovered.High-value segments(container,cruise)back in business.ClaimsClaims frequency and cost show recent
79、increase but still at very moderate levels into first half year 2022.Total loss frequency:long-term positive trend continues.Major loss impact low in recent years into 2022.Exception were fires.Hull Summary ResultsImproved since 2019 due to combination of rising premiums and low claims impact.2022 O
80、utlookReturn to full shipping activity,value increases,inflation,new designs,propulsion and fuels types likely to impact claims trends going forward.Risk of expensive total losses increases with increase in vessel values across portfolioHigh-value segments container&cruise back in businessBig increa
81、ses in container valuesTrend toward bigger vessels continues Claims frequency correlates with vessel activity.Contents Issues 2022 Global marine insurance market P&I Offshore energy Cargo Hull Special issues of concern The 2022 oracleThe 2022 OraclePhoto:Astrid SeltmannPhoto:Astrid SeltmannWar,infla
82、tion,pandemics,climate,.Combinedeffect?Photo:Astrid SeltmannTheChicago OracleTemple2022 Outlook Global trade:Optimistic post-pandemic outlook adjusted downward after outbreak of war.Pandemic:New COVID-19 waves/new viruses?Cyber risk:increases with digitalisation/cyber war?Nat-cat/Climate change:gain
83、ing traction in 2022:Wind/wave force,floods,Arctic,2022 draughts/wildfires.Oil/Energy prices:increasing activity in offshore segment but contributes to inflation(fuel prices).Emissions/ESG goals:positive for environment,but new technology/fuels mean new risks(fires,machinery).Geopolitical tensions(U
84、kraine war,sanctions,China-US trade war,)Value accumulations(storage,vessels)InflationPhoto:Astrid SeltmannReality Complex issues to monitorFoto:Astrid SeltmannFoto:Astrid SeltmannFoto:Astrid SeltmannFoto:Astrid SeltmannHigh-value risksOil price,fuel qualityHuman factor/QualificationClimate change/I
85、ncrease in Nat-catChanges in regulation(liabilities)Fires on RoRo&Container vesselsValue accumulationArctic risksNew technologyInternet of things/complex technologiesCyber riskEmission reduction goals(IMO 2020&beyond)NavigationFoto:Astrid SeltmannFoto:Astrid SeltmannFoto:Astrid Seltmann2022 Oracle W
86、hat may it mean for marine insurance?Claims impact can be expected to rise due to Vessel activity returning to pre-Covid levels Higher vessel values=higher total loss cost(if total losses)Inflation driving up repair costs New risks induce new types of claims experience needs to be built up(alternati
87、ve fuels or propulsion,autonomous vessels,)Fleet aging Increasing Nat-cat impact Recent positive results may attract more capacity againUncertainty(trade,inflation,sanctions,emissions,new risks,climate,)Photo:Astrid SeltmannThank you!Astrid SeltmannThe Nordic Association of Marine Insurersastrid.sel
88、tmanncefor.noPhoto:Astrid SeltmannPhoto:Astrid SeltmannPhoto:Alexander WiikKiellesundTechnical termsGross premium=Premium for insurance including the provision for anticipated losses(the pure premium)and for the anticipated expenses(loading),including also commission and brokerage but excluding taxe
89、s and other contributions on insurance premiums.Before deduction of any ceded reinsurance.Written premium=Complete premium due for insurance policies which start,i.e.“are written”,in a specific year(=the underwriting year of the policy).Does not give any information on actual premium payments/instal
90、ments,i.e.the cash flow.Paid claims=Amounts the insurer has paid for known and registered claims less recoveries.Outstanding claims reserve=Claims reserve for reported,but not yet(fully)paid claims,of which the insurer has an estimation of the total amount to be paid.Includesloss adjustment expenses
91、=Sum of total claims estimates minus any amounts already paid for these claims.Total claim=Paid amounts+outstanding claims reserve for all reportedclaims.IBNR=”Incurred but not reported”=additional claims reserve on top of the outstanding claims reserve,and which for claims incurred,but not yet know
92、n or registered in the insurers system.The necessary IBNR reserve is derived by statistical methods based on historical claims ladder statistics.Loss ratio=Claims divided by premiums.Indicator of whether premiums are calculated correctly to match claims and other expenses.Gross loss ratio(in this pr
93、esentation)=Sum of total claims(and IBNR reserves),divided by gross written premiumsUnderwriting year basis=Insurance figures are registered with the calender year in which the insurance policy starts,and to which the covered risks accordingly attach to.Example:a policy with cover period 01.07.06-30
94、.06.07 has underwriting year 2006.Both claims occuring in 2006 and 2007 for risks attachingto this policy are thusattributed to underwriting year 2006.The underwriting year is not closed,so underwriting year figures change as long as there are payments related to policies with thisunderwritingyear.A
95、ccident year=Claims are registeredwith the calendar year in which an accident happens.Claims attaching to the same policy may thus be attributedto different accidentyears.Example:for the policy with cover period 01.07.06-30.06.07 a claim occuring in 2007 has accident year 2007,but underwriting year
96、2006.The accident year is not closed,so figures will change as long as there are claims payments related to claims occured in that accident year,e.g.a claim payment made in 2009 for an accident whichhappened in 2007 will be attributedto accident year 2007.Accounting year(also booking year)=Insurance
97、 figures,regardless of their original source date,are booked into that year of account which is open at the time of actuallyentering the figures in the books.Contraryto the underwritingand accident year,the accounting year is closed at some point in time,usually at the end of one calendaryear,such that figures do not change any more once the accounting year is closed.These give the insurance results usually published in companies annual reports.