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1、Saudi Arabia Real EstateMarket Review Q3 2022Limited stock levels constrain activity levels in market.CBRE RESEARCHNOVEMBER 2022REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW2CBRE RESEARCH 2022 CBRE,INC.FIGURES|SAUDI ARABIA REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK|Q3 2022MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW Over this period,the oil-rela
2、ted GDP growth rate increased by 14.5%,while non-oil GDP rate of growth increased by 5.6%production cutsin the year to Q3 2022,with the oil and non-oil sectors recording growth rates of 14.5%and 5.6%respectively.-oil economy has maintained the Index(PMI)continued to remain in expansionary territory
3、for the 26th consecutive month.In October 2022,the PMI has recorded a reading of 57.2 on the back of healthy demand translating into higher production and reading in 2022.FIGURES|SAUDI ARABIA REAL ESTATE MARKET|Q3 2022LIMITED STOCK LEVELS CONSTRAIN REAL ESTATE MARKET7.9%Forecast increase in GDP in 2
4、0222.5%Forecast rate of inflation in 20223.2%Total employment increase in Q3 from the previous quarter74.9%Increase in hotel RevPAR in YoY YTD to September 2022FIGURE 1:Saudi Arabia,Gross Domestic ProductSource:CBRE Research/Macrobond5.9%Growth in average Grade A office rents in Riyadh in the year t
5、o Q3 20223CBRE RESEARCH 2022 CBRE,INC.FIGURES|SAUDI ARABIA REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK|Q3 2022MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEWAs efforts pertaining to creating job opportunities continue to ramp-up,the Saudi national unemployment rate declined to 9.7%in Q2 2022,where the non-Saudi national unemploym
6、ent rate also decreased to 1.9%.Both unemployment rates show improvements over the previous quarter of 0.4%for Saudi nationals and 0.3%for non-Saudi nationals.In the 12 months to Q2 2022,the total employment for Saudi nationals and non-Saudi nationals increased by 10.9%and 9.5%,respectively.During t
7、his period,total employment across the Kingdom increased by 9.8%overall.Total employment now sits 3.9%above pre-pandemic levels.Meanwhile,in terms of budget,the Saudi Arabian government is anticipating to record a surplus due to the increase in oil prices and production in the year to date.Finally,t
8、he rate of inflation is expected to stand at 2.5%in 2022,a notable decrease from 2020 and 2021 where inflation registered at 3.4%and 2.1%respectively.The Saudi national unemployment rate declined to 9.7%in Q2 2022,where the non-Saudi national unemployment rate also decreased to 1.9%.Both unemploymen
9、t rates show improvements over the previous quarter of 0.4%for Saudi nationals and 0.3%for non-Saudi nationals.FIGURE 3:Saudi Arabia,Labour Market,Total Employment Source:CBRE Research/MacrobondSource:CBRE Research/Macrobond4CBRE RESEARCH 2022 CBRE,INC.FIGURES|SAUDI ARABIA REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW
10、AND OUTLOOK|Q3 2022OFFICES trends when compared to previous quarter in 2022.That being said,we are seeing the vast majority of activity continuing to be centered towards Riyadh.Although with effectively no availability in the capital,we have seen an increase in occupier requirements in the likes of
11、Jeddah and to a more limited level in Dammam and Khobar.Grade A and Grade B rents in the year to September 2022.In terms of Grade A offices,average rents increased by 5.9%to reach SAR 1,683 per square metre.As for Grade B offices,average rents rose by 3.5%,with average rental rates standing at SAR 1
12、,286 per square metre.Concurrently we have continued to see occupancy levels rise for Grade A and Grade B stock,where the average occupancy rates now stand at 99.0%and 98.7%,an increase of 1.0%and 3.2%from a year earlier,respectively.In the Eastern Province,despite limited occupier requirements,Grad
13、e A rents in Dammam and Khobar registered an increase of 3.9%and 8.2%in the year to September 2022,respectively.Grade B rents in Dammam continued to remain stable during this period.As for the occupancy rose by 3.9%in Dammam.Grade B occupancy in Dammam has remained unchanged over the quarter.most re
14、quirements favouring serviced office offerings.Year-on-year,average Grade A office rents increased by 8.2%when compared to the third quarter in 2021.Over this period,the occupancy rate in Grade A buildings reached 90.0%,up 1.9%from a year earlier.In the Grade B segment of the market,rents remained s
15、table at SAR 700 per square metre.Nevertheless,the occupancy rate for Grade B offices recorded a 1.0%increase,resulting in an occupancy rate of 75.3%as at Q3 2022.FIGURE 4:Saudi Arabia,Office Rents,YoY%Change to Q3 2022FIGURE 5:Saudi Arabia,Office Occupancy,Q3 2022,%Source:CBRE ResearchSource:CBRE R
16、esearch5CBRE RESEARCH 2022 CBRE,INC.FIGURES|SAUDI ARABIA REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK|Q3 2022RESIDENTIAL In Q3 2022,total transaction volumes across Saudi Arabia totalled 37,743.This figure marks a transactions reached a sum of SAR 25.6 billion,which represents a slight decline of 0.8%compa
17、red to a year earlier.Through to Q3 2022,the number of mortgage contracts issued by banks declined by 15.9%year-on-year.Over this period,the value of mortgages provided equalled to SAR 29.8 billion.This figure represents a yearly decrease of 12.7%when compared to Q3 2021.Notably,single-family reside
18、nces represented the largest share in total value of mortgages issued at 69.5%,while apartments and land mortgages accounted for 26.7%and 3.9%,respectively.With regards to transactions on a regional level,the Dammam Metropolitan Area(DMA)was the only region to record growth in transaction volumes wi
19、th an increase of 12.0%in the year to Q3 2022.Riyadh and Jeddah have maintained their downward trend in their total transaction volumes with their total diminishing by 31.1%and 19.3%respectively over the same period.In the 12 months to September 2022,average apartment prices have improved across Riy
20、adh,Jeddah,Dammam and Khobar by 13.1%,8.9%,5.6%and 3.7%.Average apartment prices across Saudi Arabia have increased by 7.8%from a year earlier,an uptick from the 6.2%figure recorded a quarter earlier.FIGURE 6:Saudi Arabia,Residential TransactionsFIGURE 7:Saudi Arabia,Residential,Prices,Apartments,Yo
21、Y%Change to Q3 2022 Source:CBRE ResearchSource:CBRE ResearchThrough to Q3 2022,the number of mortgage contracts issued by banks declined by 15.9%year-on-year.Where the value of mortgages provided this quarter has equalleda total of SAR 29.8 billion.6CBRE RESEARCH 2022 CBRE,INC.FIGURES|SAUDI ARABIA R
22、EAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK|Q3 2022HOSPITALITY Globally,we have continued to see the recovery in the number of daily flights recorded,where the average number of daily flights in the year to Q3 2022 reached 96,907,albeit this figure is still down 15.8%over the same period in 2019.According
23、to data from IATA,in the year to date to September 2022,the global passenger load factor(PLF)stood at 77.6%,up 12.3%year-on-year.In September 2022,the global PLF stood at 81.6%,down only marginally by 0.3%compared to the same month in 2019.This has been underpinned by the recovery in religious touri
24、sm,the continued growth in the number of entertainment initiatives enacted across the country and the sharp rebound in conferences.On a country level,year-on-average occupancy rate increased by 19.5%and 17.6%respectively.Consequently,we have seen In Riyadh,in the year to September 2022,the average o
25、ccupancy rate has improved by 5.0 percentage points when compared to the year to September 2021.In terms of ADR and RevPAR,Riyadh boasted notable rates of growth of 23.4%and 35.1%over the same period.In Jeddah,the hospitality market has also fared well.Its ADR and occupancy rate have seen growth of
26、19.6%and 6.5 percentage points year-on-year in the year to date to September 2022,where its RevPAR grew by 35.2%.In the holy cities of Makkah and Medina,the meaningful return of religious tourism has meant that RevPARs saw a marked increase of 266.6%and 214.6%year-on-year in the year to date to Sept
27、ember 2022,although it is worth noting the low base these percentage changes originate from.In the Eastern province,Dammam and Khobar have recorded deteriorating performance in the year to September 2022 compared to a year earlier.FIGURE 8:Global,Total Number of Tracked Flights FIGURE 9:Saudi Arabia
28、,Hospitality Market,KPIs,YoY%ChangeSource:CBRE Research/STR Global Source:CBRE Research,Flightradar24Year to Date-September 2022 vs September 2019Year to Date-September 2022 vs September 2021Occ PP Change ADR%ChangeRevPAR%ChangeOcc PP Change ADR%ChangeRevPAR%ChangeSaudi Arabia-4.2%-7.2%-13.8%17.6%19
29、.5%74.9%Al Khobar-2.7%-4.7%-9.2%Dammam-5.1%1.6%-8.3%Jeddah-4.7%-23.2%-29.2%6.5%19.6%35.2%Makkah-7.3%-9.2%-19.6%36.6%30.2%266.6%Medina-2.2%3.0%-0.6%33.2%46.6%214.6%Riyadh3.5%8.9%15.9%5.0%23.4%35.1%2022.CBRE and the CBRE logo are registered trademarks of CBRE Group,Inc.,registered in the United States
30、 and/or its affiliated or related companies in other countries.All other marks displayed on this document are the property of their respective owners.Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them.All information included herein pertaining to CBRE including but not limited to
31、 its operations,employees,technology and clients are proprietary and confidential,and are supplied with the understanding that they will be held in confidence and not disclosed to third parties without the prior written consent of CBREThe information contained herein is presented exclusively for use
32、 by CBRE clients and professionals,and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.The material,including projections,has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable.While we do not doubt their accuracy,we have not verified them and make no guarantee,warranty or representati
33、on about them.It is your responsibility to confirm independently their accuracy and completeness.ContactsTaimur KhanHead of Research+971 52 281 Hattan AlsharifSenior Research Analyst+966 50 029 Pedro RibeiroGeneral Manager,Saudi Arabia+966 55 269 0736 Michael Heitmann Head of Consulting+971 50 794 M
34、ichael YoungHead of Advisory&Transactions+971 56 603 Daniel McCullochHead of Valuation+971 50 656 Lindsay McQuillanHead of Property Management+971 52 640 Ali ManzoorHead of Hotels&Tourism+971 58 149 Esam SultanHead of Residential+971 52 256 5826EScott KeaneyHead of Project Management+971 52 640 Mehdi AliouatHead of Marketing&Communications+971 52 1005 Middle East