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1、2022 STATE OF CLIMATE SERVICESENERGYContributors/Publishing detailsReport Editorial Board(WMO):Johannes Cullmann,Maxx Dilley,Paul Egerton,Veronica F.Grasso,Cyrille Honor,Filipe Lcio,Jrg Luterbacher,Clare Nullis,Brigitte Perrin,Mary Power,Anthony Rea,Johan StanderScientific review:WMO Study Group on
2、Integrated Energy Services(SG-ENE)Scientific editors:Maxx Dilley,Veronica F.Grasso,Tom Idle,Nakiete MsemoProject coordination team(WMO):Veronica F.Grasso,Roberta Boscolo,Maxx Dilley,Hamid Bastani,Nakiete Msemo;DWD:Tobias Fuchs;ENEL Foundation:Carlo Papa,Claudio Pregagnoli,Luca Spinosa;WEMC:Alberto T
3、roccoliAgence Francaise de Dveloppement(AFD):Julie Bompas,Marie-Noelle WoillezAdaptation Fund(AF):Alyssa Maria Gomes,Saliha Dobardzic,Claudia Lasprilla PinaBarcelona Supercomputing Center(BSC):Albert Soret,Ilaria VigoClimate Investment Funds(CIF):Abhishek Bhaskar,Xianfu Lu,Loreta RufoClimate Policy
4、Initiative(CPI):Baysa Naran,Morgan RichmondChina Meteorological Administration(CMA):Luwei Shen,Dong ZhaoCopernicus Climate Change Service,European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(C3S,ECMWF):Chiara CagnazzoDeutscher Wetterdienst(DWD):Tobias Fuchs,Frank KasparElectric Power Research Institut
5、e(EPRI):Delavane Diaz,Laura Fischer,Rachel Gantz,Mike Howard,Morgan Scott lectricit de France(EDF):Sylvie PareyENEL Foundation:Carlo Papa,Claudio Pregagnoli,Luca SpinosaEnergy Sector Management Assistance Program of the World Bank(ESMAP):Elisa Portale,Jiyun Park,Stephen Halloway Global Energy Interc
6、onnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO):Han Huang,Changyi Liu,Xin Tan,Zijian Zhao,Fang Yang,Jinyu Xiao,Zhanghua ZhengGraduate Institute of International and Development Studies:Isha Bhasin,Jrme Duberry,Medha Manish,Emma Leonarda Magdalena Nijssen,Sekela Salome OmburaGreen Climate
7、Fund(GCF):Monica Gullberg,Edson Hlatshwayo,Joseph Intsiful,Carol LitwinGlobal Environment Facility(GEF):Aloke Barnwal,Fareeha IqbalGroup on Earth Observations(GEO):Hesham M.El-Askary(Chapman University),Stelios Kazadzis(Physics and Meteor.Obs.Davos/World Radiation Center),Charalampos(Haris)Kontoes(N
8、ational Observatory of Athens),Thierry Ranchin(MINES Paris),Sara VenturiniInternational Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA):Bertrand Magne,Henri PaillereInternational Energy Agency(IEA):Jinsun Lim,Chiara DAdamoInternational Hydropower Association(IHA):Alex Campbell,Debbie GrayInternational Renewable Energy A
9、gency(IRENA):Claire Kiss,Imen Gherboudj,Elizabeth PressOpen Hydro:Maria Ubierna,Cristina DiezRseau de Transport dElectricit(RTE):Laurent DubusSouth African Weather Service(SAWS):Nico Kroese,Miriam Murambadoro,Henerica TazvingaSustainable Energy for All(SE4ALL):Alvin JoseUN-Energy:Bahareh Seyedi,Mino
10、ru TakadaWorld Energy&Meteorology Council(WEMC):Alberto TroccoliGraphic Design:Design PlusWMO-No.1301 World Meteorological Organization,2022The right of publication in print,electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO.Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced wi
11、thout authorization,provided that the complete source is clearly indicated.Editorial correspondence and requests to publish,reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to:Chair,Publications BoardWorld Meteorological Organization(WMO)7 bis,avenue de la Paix Tel.:+4
12、1(0)22 730 84 03P.O.Box 2300 Fax:+41(0)22 730 81 17CH-1211 Geneva 2,Switzerland Email:publicationswmo.intISBN 978-92-63-11301-6NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of
13、WMO concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nat
14、ure which are not mentioned or advertised.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members.Photo:Appolinary Kalashnikova/UnsplashContentsForeword 4Executive summary
15、5Data and methods 8Value 9Global status 11Priorities and needs 21Investment 24Regional overview 26Gaps 30Recommendations 31Case studies 33Case study 1:Climate services to support long-term energy planning for climate change impacts on European power systems 33Case study 2:EDF is coordinating climate
16、 adaptation at a group level 34Case study 3:Climate proofing of local development and investment plans in the Dolomites 35Case study 4:Integrated weather services for offshore wind power production in China 36Case study 5:Early weather warnings to safeguard electricity supply for Beijing 37Case stud
17、y 6:A solar atlas to guide energy management and planning in Egypt 38Case study 7:Earth observation-based services to support long-term planning for European energy systems 39Case study 8:Rural solar electrification in Mali 40Case study 9:Climate services supporting renewable energy applications in
18、Germanys transport infrastructure 41Case study 10:Sector-specific localized wind resource information to aid wind industry decision-making process 42Case study 11:Supporting climate-resilient hydropower operations with hydrometeorological data analytics in Tajikistan 43Case study 12:Supporting the u
19、ptake of hybrid renewable energy systems in South Africa 44Case study 13:A global platform assessing the potential installed capacity of hydrology,wind and solar energy 45Case study 14:Sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting helps clean-energy companies make better decisions 46Case study 15:An energy
20、interconnection is promoting climate mitigation and sustainable development in Africa 47Case study 16:Weather information and services helped the Beijing Winter Olympics achieve a 100%green electricity supply 48Case study 17:Enhancing adaptive capacity of Andean communities in Chile,Peru and Colombi
21、a 49Photo:Appolinary Kalashnikova/UnsplashPhoto:Zbynek Burival/UnsplashWMO has issued annual reports on the state of climate services since 2019 in order to provide scientifically-based information to support climate adaptation and mitigation.This 2022 edition of the WMO State of Climate Services re
22、port focuses on the issue of energy,a subject that continues to dominate discussion and debate as it affects every single community,business,sector and economic sector,in all parts of the world.Energy is at the very heart of our response to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris A
23、greement on climate change.Given that the energy sector contributes around three quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions,switching to clean forms of energy generation,such as solar,wind and hydropower and improving energy efficiency is absolutely vital if we are to thrive in the twenty-first cen
24、tury.Net zero is the aim.But we will only get there if we double the supply of low-emissions electricity within the next eight years.As we highlight in this report,weather,water and climate services will be increasingly important as the world transitions to net zero.As we explore through data,analys
25、is and a series of case studies countries are able to improve their energy infrastructure,resilience and security through better climate services supported by sustainable investments.Early weather warnings are safeguarding energy supply in Beijing,China.Climate stress tests are ensuring electricity
26、is suitably distributed in the Italian Dolomites.Warning systems in Tajikistan are providing advance notice of dry conditions for hydropower operations planning.But there are huge opportunities to go further and faster,investing in climate services to scale up our resilience to climate change,increa
27、se clean energy generation and safeguard a sustainable future.Time is not on our side and our climate is changing before our eyes.Sustainable energy security and reaching net zero by 2050 will mean a complete transformation of the global energy system and weather,water and climate services will play
28、 a crucial role.Prof.Petteri Taalas,Secretary-General,WMO4Photo:Gustavo Quepon/UnsplashExecutive summary1 2021 one of the seven warmest years on record,WMO consolidated data shows2 IPCC AR6 Working Group II press release3 Global Energy Review:CO2 Emissions in 20214 Renewable Energy and Climate Chang
29、e5 Climate Resilience6 IAEA,Climate Change and Nuclear Power,Securing Clean Energy for Climate Resilience(in press)7 Climate Resilience8 World Energy Outlook 20219 World Energy Outlook 202110 Water Stress Threatens Nearly Half the Worlds Thermal Power Plant Capacity11 Using the WWF Water Risk Filter
30、 to Screen Existing and Projected Hydropower Projects for Climate and Biodiversity Risks12 Global Landscape of Climate Finance 202113 Global Energy Review:CO2 Emissions in 202114 WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin,No.1715 Net Zero by 2050:A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector16 World Energy Transitions Ou
31、tlook17 COP26 climate pledges could help limit global warming to 1.8 C,but implementing them will be the keyThe past seven years have been the warmest on record.1 According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disrupt
32、ion in nature and affecting the lives of billions of people around the world.2 There is now consensus that without immediate and strong reductions in greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,limiting global warming to 2 C is beyond reach.As it accounts for almost three quarters of global GHG emissions,major tra
33、nsitions are required in the energy sector.3 Energy is at the heart of the challenges of achieving both the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on climate change.Renewable energy sources and energy efficiency play a key role in providing energy services in a sustainable m
34、anner and,in particular,in mitigating against and adapting to climate change.4 CLIMATE CHANGE IS PUTTING ENERGY SECURITY AT RISK GLOBALLYIn the midst of the race to net zero emissions(NZE),the impact of global temperature increase continues to raise concerns about energy security.Changes in climate
35、pose significant risks to the energy sector,directly affecting fuel supply,energy production,physical resilience of current and future energy infrastructure,and energy demand.5 Heatwaves and droughts associated with anthropogenic climate change are already putting existing energy generation under st
36、ress,making the net zero transition even more urgent.6 In 2020,87%of global electricity generated from thermal,nuclear and hydroelectric systems directly depended on water availability.7 Meanwhile,33%of the thermal power plants that rely on freshwater availability for cooling are already located in
37、high water stress areas.8 This is also the case for 15%of existing nuclear power plants,a share expected to increase to 25%in the next 20 years.9 Eleven per cent of hydroelectric capacity is also located in highly water-stressed areas.10 And approximately 26%of existing hydropower dams and 23%of pro
38、jected dams are within river basins that currently have a medium to very high risk of water scarcity.11 Most countries are likely to experience more frequent or intense extreme weather,water and climate events.This also affects nuclear power plants,which not only depend on water for cooling but are
39、also often located in low-lying coastal areas and hence are vulnerable to sea-level rise and weather-related flooding.For example,the Turkey Point nuclear plant in Florida(United States of America),which sits right at sea level,will be threatened in the coming decades.In January 2022,massive power o
40、utages caused by a historic heatwave in Buenos Aires,Argentina affected around 700 000 people.In November 2020,freezing rain coated power lines in the Far East of the Russian Federation,leaving hundreds of thousands of homes without electricity for several days.Despite these risks,energy security is
41、 a low priority for adaptation.Just 40%of nationally determined contributions(NDCs)submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)prioritize adaptation in the energy sector.The lack of recognition of the importance of climate services has led to a lack of de
42、mand and finance.Climate adaptation-focused investments in the energy sector remain very low,at just over US$300 million,tracked per year in 20192020.12 RENEWABLE ENERGY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SUSTAINABLE FUTUREAll countries should be making a concerted effort to transition to low-carbon energy.The en
43、ergy sector is the largest source of GHG emissions,accounting for almost three quarters of global emissions.13 In 2020,CO2 concentrations reached 149%of pre-industrial levels.14 Supply from low-emissions sources needs to double by 2030 if the world is to reach net zero by 2050,according to the Inter
44、national Energy Agency(IEA).15 Total energy supply will fall by around 7%,and around 50%(up to 65%)16 of total energy supply will come from low-emissions energy sources by 2030,presenting significant growth from the current level of around 25%,according to IEA.17 5The transition is all the more impo
45、rtant when considering the waterenergy nexus.The total life cycle water used to generate electricity by solar and wind is substantially lower than for more traditional technologies,such as thermoelectric power plants,either fossil-fuel-or nuclear-based.18 A transition to renewable energy therefore c
46、onstitutes an essential contribution to alleviating growing global water stresses.Current pledges made by countries fall well short of what is needed to meet the objectives set by the Paris Agreement limiting global warming to well below 2 C leaving a 70%gap in the amount of emissions reductions nee
47、ded by 2030.19 The 3.7 TW from renewables in 2030 pledged in the 56%of NDCs with quantified renewable power targets,if implemented,represent less than half of what is needed to keep the 2 C goal alive.The pathway to reach the Paris Agreement long-term global goal on temperature requires 7.1 TW of cl
48、ean energy capacity to be installed by 2030.20 The necessary policies and regulations to enable decarbonization in the energy sector are still particularly weak in Africa,South America and Asia,according to the World Bank.21 And the recognition of the need for services to support renewable energy is
49、 particularly low just 6%of NDCs mention climate services for energy for mitigation.WEATHER,WATER AND CLIMATE SERVICES ARE CRUCIAL FOR ENERGY SECURITY AND THE GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION TO ACHIEVE NET ZERORenewable energy systems are weather and climate dependent,so the transition to clean energy call
50、s for improved climate information and services for the energy sector.Climate services are needed to ensure the resilience of energy systems to climate-related shocks and to inform measures to increase energy efficiency.Risk assessments addressing planning and early warning of adverse events affecti
51、ng energy supply and demand can help populations to anticipate,absorb,accommodate and recover from adverse impacts.For example,early weather warnings can safeguard energy supply in Beijing(China),climate stress tests can ensure effective electricity distribution in the Dolomites region of Italy,and
52、severe weather warnings can protect offshore wind power production in China.Climate services are also essential for renewable energy,including for:site selection,resource assessment and financing;operations,maintenance and management of energy systems;electricity integration into the grid;and impact
53、 assessment of energy systems.For example,climate 18 Life Cycle Water Use for Electricity Generation:A Review and Harmonization of Literature Estimates19 COP26 climate pledges could help limit global warming to 1.8 C,but implementing them will be the key20 IRENA,based on analysis of NDCs.21 Regulato
54、ry Indicators for Sustainable Energy22 World Energy Outlook 202123 Renewable Energy Market Analysis:Africa and its Regions24 SDG7 2022 reportservices are providing warnings ahead of dry conditions for hydropower operations planning in Tajikistan;localized wind-resource information is aiding full-val
55、ue-chain wind industry decision-making;and climate services are supporting the placement of solar panels on noise barriers in Germany.Seventy-nine per cent of WMO Members provide climate services for energy,including some particularly notable examples.However,less than 50%of Members provide tailored
56、 products for the energy sector,which shows the untapped potential of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs)and the efforts required to address the emerging needs of this sector.Specialized services for renewable energy are sub-optimal.Just 25 Members maintain a dedicated observing
57、 network for energy services,and only 18 Members have access to observational or simulated data on energy from other national public,private and/or academic sector entities.Existing climate services for energy systems need to be expanded,and climate services for the energy system transition,in parti
58、cular,need strengthening.INVESTMENTS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY NEED TO TRIPLE BY 2050,INCLUDING FOR CLIMATE SERVICES FOR ENERGYThe radical transformation of the global energy system requires a significant increase in annual investment in energy from just over US$2 trillion globally to almost US$5 trillion
59、 by 2030.22 Current levels of investment in renewable energy need to at least triple to put the world on a net zero trajectory by 2050,according to the Climate Policy Initiative(CPI),including for climate services.In 20192020,the majority of renewable energy investments were made in the East Asia an
60、d Pacific region(mainly China and Japan),followed by Western Europe,and North America,mainly the United States and Canada,according to CPI.According to the International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA)and CPI,developing and emerging economies continue to remain underrepresented when it comes to acces
61、sing clean energy finance.Further,only 2%of such investment in the last two decades was made in Africa.23 International public financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy decreased in 2019 for the second year in a row,falling to US$10.9 billion.This level of support was 23%low
62、er than the US$14.2 billion provided in 2018,25%lower than the 20102019 average,and less than half of the peak of US$24.7 billion in 2017.24 6THERE IS A HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR AFRICA TO HELP CLOSE THE GAP IN THE NEED FOR RENEWABLE ENERGYAfrica is already facing severe effects from climate change,inclu
63、ding massive droughts,despite bearing the least responsibility for the problem.Africa accounts for less than 3%of the worlds energy-related CO2 emissions to date and has the lowest emissions per capita of any region.Global ambitions for cutting emissions with declining clean technology costs hold ne
64、w promise for Africas future,with increasing flows of climate finance.Achieving Africas energy and climate goals means more than doubling energy investment this decade,with a huge increase in adaptation as well.25 African countries host the lowest percentage of modern renewable systems(just 7.6%of f
65、inal energy consumption),26 and only 2%of global investments in renewable energy in the last two decades were made in Africa.27 Yet,the continent has a huge resource potential,particularly for solar28 energy systems,but also wind29 and hydropower.30 The region has huge potential to deploy solar ener
66、gy systems:Africa is home to 60%of the best solar resources globally,yet only 1%of installed photovoltaic(PV)capacity.31 25 Africa Energy Outlook 202226 SEforALL Analysis of SDG7 Progress-202127 Renewable Energy Market Analysis:Africa and its Regions28 IRENA estimates the continents solar technical
67、potential at 7 900 GW(assuming a 1%land-utilization factor),indicating vast potential for the generation of solar power.29 IRENA estimates the technical potential of wind power generation in Africa at an immense 461 GW(assuming a 1%land-utilization factor),with Algeria,Ethiopia,Namibia and Mauritani
68、a possessing the greatest potential.30 The Delft University of Technology estimates the continents unexploited hydropower potential to be 1 753 GW(Global Potential Hydropower Locations),with Angola,the Democratic Republic of the Congo,Ethiopia,Madagascar,Mozambique and Zambia leading.31 Africa Energ
69、y Outlook 202232 Africa Energy Outlook 202233 Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE)According to IEA,bringing access to modern energy for all Africans calls for investment of US$25 billion per year,which is around 1%of global energy investment today.32 By 2050,global electricity needs will mainly
70、be met with renewable energy,with solar the single largest source of supply(in terms of installed capacity),according to IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE).33 African countries have an opportunity to be major players within the market.ENERGY POLICIES AND COMMITMENTS NEED TO BETTER ADDRESS
71、 ENERGY SECURITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE AND PROMOTE THE TRANSITION TO NET ZERO,INCLUDING BY SCALING UP CLIMATE SERVICESMore effective climate services will not only contribute to creating attractive market conditions to scale up renewable energy infrastructure,but they will also promote clean energy
72、system efficiency and climate resilience.Increased,sustained investments in such services,supported by recognition of the need for such services through enhanced policies,are required to achieve this.7Photo:F and methods34 WMO Climate Services Dashboard35 Global Solar Atlas and Global Wind AtlasWMO
73、collects data from its Members based on a framework developed by WMO inter-governmentally appointed experts.The present report assesses the progress of WMO Member NMHSs in providing climate services for adaptation and mitigation in the energy sector based on data34 currently available for 164(85%)WM
74、O Members,including 89%of the worlds least developed countries(LDCs)and 56%of small island developing States(SIDS)as of May 2022.In addition,data from 87 WMO Members based on a survey of NMHSs conducted by the WMO Commission for Weather,Climate,Water and Related Environmental Services and Applicatio
75、ns(Services Commission)are analysed in the Priorities and needs section.The results presented in the present report reflect the profiles of the countries which have provided these data.The analysis of climate policy priorities is based on NDCs submitted to date(194 as of March 2022).The analysis is
76、further complemented by the UNFCCC synthesis reports and IRENA NDC reports.The data for United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7(SDG 7)are from the World Bank,IEA,IRENA,the United Nations Statistics Division(UNSD)and the World Health Organization(WHO).The solar and wind resource maps are from t
77、he Energy Sector Management Assistance Program(ESMAP).35 Data on private sector delivery of climate services for the energy sector are from the World Energy&Meteorology Council(WEMC).The Investment section of the report presents information from the Green Climate Fund(GCF),Adaptation Fund(AF),French
78、 Development Agency(AFD),Climate Policy Initiative(CPI)and Global Environment Facility(GEF).Case studies provided by partners highlight how climate information services and early warnings contribute to improved climate-related energy sector outcomes.Each case study highlights successful approaches t
79、o achieving socioeconomic benefits through climate services for the energy sector at the national,regional or global level.Some of the included case studies were supported by research by students from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies.The research focused on collecting
80、data on the socioeconomic benefits of climate services for energy,through the collection of information via desktop review and structured calls with service providers and users.8Photo:Rawfilm/UnsplashValueEnergy systems are the driving force for economic and social development,and associated investm
81、ents can represent a sizeable portion of a countrys GDP36 Practices,Needs and Impediments in the Use of Weather/Climate Information in the Electricity Sector37 Enel Integrated Annual Report 202138 Energy Exemplar to the User Interface Platform of the Global Framework for Climate Services39 Energy Ex
82、emplar to the User Interface Platform of the Global Framework for Climate Services40 Weiher,R.;Houston,L.;Adams,R.Socio-economic Benefits of Climatological Services(Draft).United States of America Contribution to the Update of WMO No.424;National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Oregon Sta
83、te University,2005.41 Economic Value of Long-lead Streamflow Forecasts for Columbia River Hydropower42 Tailoring Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Hydropower Operations43 Interactions with a Weather-sensitive Decision MakerEnergy is essential to all aspects of human welfare,including access to water,ag
84、ricultural productivity,health care,education,job creation and environmental sustainability.GHGs,such as carbon dioxide(CO2)methane(CH4)and nitrous oxide(N2O)from the energy sector,however,account for the largest share of global anthropogenic GHG emissions.Emission reduction targets under UNFCCC are
85、 expected to significantly increase demand for energy from renewable sources,which,in turn,are highly sensitive to climate,as well as to lead to requirements for energy-efficiency measures.Energy-sector planning and operations are markedly affected by weather and climate variability and change.With
86、an ever-growing annual global energy demand which saw an increase of about 30%in the past ten years expanding energy systems are increasingly exposed to the vagaries of weather and climate.Electrical distribution and transmission systems,including for traditional energy sources,are also severely aff
87、ected by extreme weather,water and climate events.Improved decision-making that considers weather and climate information can considerably increase the resilience of energy systems.The power sector routinely uses weather forecasts up to 15 days.36 Beyond this time horizon,climatological data(water a
88、nd climate variables typically covering a longer reference period)are commonly used.Relying on climatology assumes that future conditions will be similar to past conditions.Because climate change invalidates this assumption,the energy sector is witnessing the use of increasingly sophisticated climat
89、e services applications,according to Barcelona Supercomputing Center.In these new normal operating conditions,companies such as ENEL37 are developing holistic scenarios which take into account traditional industrial and economic considerations and factor in future trends in climate variables based o
90、n the use of multiple regional climate models.Such climate services can help to support increased development and use of renewable energy sources distributed efficiently by smart resilient grids.38 The development and application of targeted climate products and services through the Global Framework
91、 for Climate Services can support both adaptation and mitigation:Adaptation:Greater climate resilience and adaptation across the sector,due to its fundamental importance for economic and social development.Mitigation:Efficiency and reduction of energy consumption with consequent emissions reduction
92、in support of mitigation targets;Support for the growing renewables subsector,given the apparent climate sensitivity of renewables on the one hand and the policy priority afforded to them due to their GHG emissions reduction benefits on the other.39 In the energy sector,studies have demonstrated the
93、 value of very short-term,sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts(e.g.for temperature,wind speed,stream flow)for fuel purchasing decisions,demand and generation forecasting,and system planning.Temperature forecasts allow managers to forecast peak loads more accurately and optimally schedule power genera
94、tion plants to meet demands at a lower cost.40 Hydropower operations benefit from daily,weekly and seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts,which can help to optimize operations.For example,the use of streamflow forecasts increases energy production from major Columbia River(United States)hyd
95、ropower dams by 5.5 TWh/year,resulting in an average increase in annual revenue of approximately US$153 million per year.41 Similarly,the use of forecasts to manage hydropower operations in Ethiopia produces cumulative decadal benefits ranging from US$1 to US$6.5 billion,compared to a climatological
96、(no forecast)approach.42 In another example,the use of an El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO)forecast by a heating plant manager resulted in more than US$500 000 in savings in natural gas purchases over the course of the 1997/1998 northern hemisphere winter season(based on predictions of a warm winte
97、r,the plant manager chose to purchase natural gas on the spot market,rather than lock in a price).43 9What are climate services for energy?44 Specifically in terms of forecasting from a month ahead and beyond.45 These are the most recent scientific development in terms of forecasting.They differ fro
98、m(multi-decadal)climate projections mainly in terms of the way the initial conditions of the climate are defined,with decadal forecasting starting from a better description of the state of the climate.46 The Value of Climate Services across Economic and Public SectorsClimate services rely on the pro
99、duction and delivery of relevant,credible and usable climate information.The energy industry has extensive experience using weather services but less experience with climate services,44 the latter being a more recent endeavour.However,in the context of the changing climate and the energy transition,
100、new approaches based on climate information are required.As energy systems become increasingly dependent on weather variations,it is apparent that the information flow from weather and climate data and forecasts needs to be properly incorporated into the decision support systems(Figure 1).From the p
101、erspective of an energy sector user(e.g.grid operator),several areas benefit from weather and climate services(see also Figure 1):Characterization of past weather/climate events using historical data.This is perhaps the most important element,as it provides a baseline,or first-order approximation,of
102、 the current risks and opportunities,and thus it is key to managing energy production and distribution at present(especially considering the increasing fraction of renewables in the energy mix and the changing patterns in energy consumption).Nowcasting/short-term weather forecasts for load balancing
103、 by maximizing the usable component of the generated power(e.g.by optimizing power generation both temporally and spatially or by reducing curtailment through use of dynamic line rating).Sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasting for maintenance of infrastructure and resource and risk management p
104、urposes(e.g.to ensure sufficient water reserves are available for hydropower production).Decadal climate forecasting45 for multi-year resource risk management.These forecasts effectively extend the seasonal forecast range,typically to ten years ahead,thus allowing a longer risk assessment horizon.Mu
105、lti-decadal climate projections for infrastructure risk assessment,planning and design purposes.This includes providing authoritative data on possible evolution of climate considering different emission scenarios,including those aligned with policies.Projections related to policy targets are natural
106、ly critical as they inform planning and support system design including understanding the implications of unlikely but impactful events.46EXAMPLES OF APPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE SERVICES FOR ENERGY INCLUDE:Planning purchases of gas and electric power;Managing responses in emergency situations;Managing c
107、apacity and resources(e.g.grid/distribution management,electricity production/pricing);Optimizing renewable power plant operation,especially reservoirs and hydropower operations;Commercial/residential consumption decisions.46Figure 1:Past and future weather and climate data(lower row)and their typic
108、al use in the energy sector(top row)Source:WMO Best Practices for Integrated Weather and Climate Services in Support to Net Zero Energy Transition(in press)10Global statusClimate change is putting energy security at risk globally47 IAEA,Climate Change and Nuclear Power,Securing Clean Energy for Clim
109、ate Resilience(in press)48 World Energy Outlook 202149 World Energy Outlook 202150 Water Stress Threatens Nearly Half the Worlds Thermal Power Plant Capacity51 Using the WWF Water Risk Filter to Screen Existing and Projected Hydropower Projects for Climate and Biodiversity Risks52 IAEA,Climate Chang
110、e and Nuclear Power,Securing Clean Energy for Climate Resilience(in press)In the midst of the race to NZE,the impact of rising atmospheric GHG concentrations and accompanying changes in other indicators,such as global temperature,change in extremes(frequency,duration,intensity),precipitation,sea lev
111、el and glacier mass balance,continues to raise concerns about energy security.Climate changes pose significant challenges to the energy sector,directly affecting fuel supply,electricity generation,energy infrastructure and energy demand,according to IEA.In 2020,87%of global electricity generated fro
112、m thermal,nuclear and hydroelectric systems directly depended on water availability.47 Meanwhile,33%of the thermal power plants that rely on freshwater availability for cooling are already located in high water stress areas.48 This is also the case for 15%of existing nuclear power plants,a share exp
113、ected to increase to 25%in the next 20 years(Figures 2 and 3).49 Eleven per cent of hydroelectric capacity is also located in highly water-stressed areas.50 And approximately 26%of existing hydropower dams and 23%of projected dams are within river basins that currently have a medium to very high ris
114、k of water scarcity.51 Nuclear power plants not only depend on water for cooling but are also often located in low-lying coastal areas and hence are vulnerable to sea-level rise and weather-related flooding.52 Figure 2:Location of selected energy-related infrastructure and water stress levels,2020So
115、urce:World Energy Outlook 2021;IEA analysis based on WRI Aqueduct 3.0(2019)and S&P Global(2021)Photo:NASA/Unsplash11Most countries are likely to experience more frequent or intense extreme weather,water and climate events.For example,Turkey Point nuclear plant in Florida(United States),which sits ri
116、ght at sea level,will be threatened in the coming decades.In January 2022,massive power outages caused by a historic heatwave in Buenos Aires,Argentina affected around 700 000 people.In November 2020,freezing rain coated power lines in the Far East of the Russian Federation,leaving hundreds of thous
117、ands of homes without electricity for several days(Figure 4).Figure 3:Location of existing nuclear sites,as well as those under construction and plannedSource:International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA)analysis based on data from IAEA Power Reactor Information System(PRIS)database.Note:the contours of
118、climatic zones are indicative;their borders are likely to evolve with the changing global climate.Figure 4:Impacts of extreme events on energy infrastructure12Because of past and future GHG emissions,a gradual and irreversible rise of the sea level will occur throughout the century and well beyond,i
119、rrespective of the future state of the climate,with consequences for the design and siting of current and future facilities located on coastlines.53 A further increase of global sea level is certain,caused by ice loss on land and thermal expansion from deep ocean warming,with sizeable variations at
120、the local and regional scale.54 However,increased sea levels could exacerbate the impacts of other unpredictable but more frequent extreme weather manifestations underpinning high-emissions scenarios,such as large storms causing coastal flooding,storm surges,high-water events as well as coastal eros
121、ion and landslides.Ten per cent of dispatchable generation facilities are already exposed to severe coastal flooding.55 Over 70%of installed capacities in operation or under construction are in three regions Eastern North America,Western and Central Europe and East Asia which will face a wide variet
122、y of climate hazards in the future,including extreme heat conditions,heavy precipitation,coastal and river floods,and tropical cyclones.On the supply side,renewables are directly dependent on the wind speed for wind power,on radiation and temperature for solar,and on water availability for hydropowe
123、r.Biomass and biofuel availability is sensitive to the climate.Thermal 53 IAEA,Climate Change and Nuclear Power,Securing Clean Energy for Climate Resilience(in press)54 Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands,Coasts and Communities,in The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate:Spec
124、ial Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;Forcing Factors Affecting Sea Level Changes at the Coast55 World Energy Outlook 202156 Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenarios57 Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenari
125、os58 IAEA analysis based on IAEA PRIS database.power plants rely on water amount and temperature for their cooling systems.On the demand side,heating and cooling demands are mostly driven by the temperature.And distribution is affected by hazards such as storms,heavy rainfall,strong wind,wet snow or
126、 frost,high temperatures,lightning or wildfires.The cumulative impacts of weather,water and climate on all aspects of energy generation and use are therefore considerable(Figure 5).56 By threatening the functioning of traditional energy systems,more pronounced and severe heatwaves and droughts are p
127、otentially among the most consequential extreme climate conditions for energy.Heatwaves alter power generation and transmission efficiencies and escalate cooling demand.57 IAEA reports that occurrences of severe weather disrupting the operation of nuclear power plants increased five-fold in three de
128、cades,between 1990 and 2019(Figure 6),with a notable acceleration since 2009.58 However,the resulting impacts in term of production losses diminished appreciably in many countries thanks to regular improvements in operational practices and evolving regulatory obligations.Figure 5:Conceptual framewor
129、k of climate impacts on the energy sector.CDD cooling degree days;HDD heating degree days.Source:Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional ScenariosHydroSolarBioenergyWindThermal p-plantsTransportBuildingssystemsRunoffWater temperatureBiomass yieldCloudinessWind densityAir t
130、emperaturePrecipitationSolar radiationWind speedAir pressureHumidityPrimary energyOther renewablesFossil fuelsIndustry/otherHDD/heat patternCDD/cold patternNuclear powerEnergy conversionCooling demandHeating demandAir temperatureOther fuel plantsOther p-plantsSupplyDemandBioenergyClimate changeDirec
131、t driversEnergy systemsdensity13 59 Hydropower Sector Climate Resilience Guide60 More information about Climate READi is available at 6:Reported global power outages due to weather events,19902019Source:IAEA analysis based on IAEA PRIS databaseHYDROPOWER SECTOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE GUIDEHydropower fac
132、ilities provide essential adaptation services that reduce the impacts of hazards exacerbated by climate change such as floods and drought.Like all infrastructure,they may be vulnerable to natural disasters,and they have a particular dependency on precipitation.To address this fact,the International
133、Hydropower Association(IHA)launched the Hydropower Sector Climate Resilience Guide59 in 2019.This guide offers a methodology and inter-national good practice guidance to help project operators and developers identify,assess and manage climate risks to enhance the resilience of proposed and existing
134、hydropower projects.It was developed over a three-year period in consultation with major hydropower developers,owners and operators,intergovernmental and not-for-profit organizations,international consultancies and independent experts.It supports lenders,operators,developers and policymakers to make
135、 informed decisions about how to plan,build,upgrade and operate hydropower assets in the face of increasingly variable hydrological conditions.CLIMATE READi:A COMMON FRAMEWORK FOR POWER COMPANIES TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISK As extreme weather events increase in frequency and intensity,along with societys
136、 dependence on electricity,there is an increasing need for a comprehensive and consistent approach to physical climate risk assessment.In April,the Electric Power Research Institute(EPRI)launched a new,three-year initiative,Climate READi(Power REsilience and ADaptation initiative),aiming to bring mo
137、re than 50 power companies together with global thought leaders and industry stakeholders to develop a common framework to address this challenge.The Climate READi framework produced from this effort will embody a comprehensive,integrated approach to physical climate risk assessment for the sector.T
138、he framework will provide climate data guidance,direction for assessing exposure and vulnerability across the entirety of the power system,and methods for prioritizing investment decisions.It will enable energy companies,regulators and other stakeholders to use science-informed insights in a more co
139、nsistent way to better understand,plan for,and disclose future global power system challenges arising from the changing environment.Each of the three initiative workstreams will be advanced in parallel,scheduled to be completed in 2025.60 14Renewable energy will contribute to a sustainable future61
140、Net Zero by 205062 WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin,No.1763 Net Zero by 2050:A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector64 World Energy Transitions Outlook65 World Energy Transitions Outlook66 Consumption of fossil fuels in facilities without carbon capture,utilization and storage(CCUS).67 World Energy Transi
141、tions Outlook68 Net Zero by 2050:A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector69 GCFs Indonesia Geothermal Resource Risk Mitigation Project provides a useful example.70 World Energy Transitions Outlook71 Life Cycle Water Use for Electricity Generation:A Review and Harmonization of Literature EstimatesCarbo
142、n dioxide emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes have steadily increased from 1900 to 2021(Figure 7).61 In 2020,atmospheric CO2 concentrations reached 149%of pre-industrial levels.62 The next decade will be decisive if the goals of the Paris Agreement and the SDGs are to be achiev
143、ed.Any delay will lead to further warming,with profound and irreversible economic and humanitarian consequences.A transition to low-carbon,clean energy should be at the heart of climate action in all countries.Phasing out unabated coal,limiting investments in oil and gas to facilitate a swift declin
144、e and a managed transition as well as embracing technology,policy and market solutions will put the global energy system on track for a net zero pathway.According to IEA,the energy sector is the largest source of GHG emissions,accounting for almost three quarters of global emissions.Figure 7:Total C
145、O2 emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes and their annual change,19002021Source:Global Energy Review:CO2 Emissions in 2021A massive transition in the way we produce and consume energy is required to reach NZE by 2050,according to IEA and IRENA.IEAs NZE by 2050 roadmap provides a
146、pathway to reach this formidable and critical goal,setting out more than 400 milestones for what needs to be done,and by when,to decarbonize the global economy in just three decades.63 IRENAs World Energy Transitions Outlook outlines priority areas and actions based on available technologies that mu
147、st be realized by 2030 to achieve NZE by mid-century.64 On an NZE by 2050 pathway,the world economy in 2030 is some 40%larger than today but uses 7%less energy,due to a major worldwide push to increase energy efficiency.Around half of total energy supply comes from low-emissions energy sources by 20
148、30,which represents significant growth from the current level of around one quarter.The share of renewables could be as high as 65%by 2030.65 At the same time,energy supply from unabated fossil fuels66 declines by 30%between 2020 and 2030,leading to no new oil and gas field development and no new co
149、al mines(Figure 8).By 2050,almost 90%of electricity generation comes from renewable sources,up from 25%in 2018,67 with wind and solar PV alone accounting for almost 70%.Most of the remainder comes from nuclear68 and natural gas.Other mature renewable technologies(e.g.hydropower,bioenergy,geothermal6
150、9)and emerging renewable technologies(e.g.concentrating solar power,ocean energy)also play important roles in decarbonizing the worlds electricity supply.70 The transition is all the more important when considering the waterenergy nexus.The total life cycle water used to generate electricity by sola
151、r and wind is substantially lower than for more traditional technologies,such as thermoelectric generation technologies.71 A transition to renewable energy therefore constitutes an essential contribution to alleviating growing global water stresses.15Figure 8:Transition in global total energy supply
152、 by source to 2030 in the NZE by 2050 scenario.Notes:EJ exajoules.Other renewables include marine and geothermal energy.Modern bioenergy includes modern solid biomass,liquid biofuels and biogases derived from sustainable sources;it excludes the traditional use of biomass.Low-emissions coal,oil and n
153、atural gas include fuel combustion equipped with carbon capture,utilization and storage(CCUS),as well as fossil fuel used in nonenergy purposes.Nonrenewable waste use is not reported.Source:World Energy Outlook 2021CLIMATE SERVICES MINIMIZING EMISSIONS FROM HYDROPOWER STORAGE PROJECTS Water storage,
154、which is often cited as a proxy for water security,becomes even more relevant under climate change scenarios.72 In 2018,2.3 billion people were living in countries under water stress and 3.6 billion people faced inadequate access to water at least one month per year.By 2050,the latter number is expe
155、cted to increase to more than 5 billion.73 Studies show that regions with significant hydrological variability have lower per capita GDP.Water storage is essential for buffering intra-annual and inter-annual variations in rainfall that otherwise significantly impact economic growth.Hydropower storag
156、e projects can deliver multiple benefits,including alleviating water scarcity.Yet,they must not contribute to the problem of climate change,which is exacerbating water insecurity.Biogenic GHG emissions caused by the impoundment of a reservoir can be significant in some cases.Although this fact has r
157、aised concerns about hydropower as a source of clean energy,studies confirm that the median life cycle emissions for hydropower facilities are as low as for other renewable technologies.74 While certain hydropower reservoirs can provide considerable reduction in GHG emissions because of the displace
158、-ment of fossil-fuel-based generation,it is essential to identify and define strategies to tackle the GHG emissions from high-emitting reservoirs.Modelling tools can identify better locations to minimise the impact of emissions after impoundment.75 Observations and monitoring are crucial for underst
159、anding the emissions pathways and the effectiveness of actions to reduce them.Measures can include vegetation clearance before impoundment,sediment inflow management and variable water intakes.Modern technologies can even capture methane emissions.Climate services can support minimizing fluctuations
160、 in water levels to avoid increasing GHG flux from the drawdown areas.72 Making Water a Part of Economic Development:The Economic Benefits of Improved Water Management and Services73 2021 State of Climate Services:Water(WMO No.1278)74 Water Security and Climate Change:Hydropower Reservoir Greenhouse
161、 Gas Emissions75 The carbon calculator for reservoirs16Commitments from countries are falling short of what is needed76 COP26 climate pledges could help limit global warming to 1.8 C,but implementing them will be the key77 NDCs and Renewable Energy Targets in 202178 UN Reports Find Updated Climate C
162、ommitments“Fall Far Short”of Paris Goal79 This quantification is based on targets in national policy documents(including policies,roadmaps,plans,energy strategies,etc.),according to IRENA.80 IRENA,based on analysis of NDCs.81 NDCs and Renewable Energy Targets in 202182 NDCs and Renewable Energy Targ
163、ets in 202183 2019 State of Climate Services:Agriculture and Food Security(WMO No.1242)84 2020 State of Climate Services:Risk Information and Early Warning Systems(WMO No.1252)85 Based on updated NDCs submitted as of August 2021.86 2021 State of Climate Services:Water(WMO No.1278)Current pledges mad
164、e by countries fall well short of what is need to meet the objectives set by the Paris Agreement limiting global warming to well below 2 C leaving a 70%gap in the amount of emissions reductions needed by 2030.76 According to IRENA,74%of countries have a quantified renewable energy target in their ND
165、Cs.77 But it is not enough.An increase of about 16%in global GHG emissions in 2030,compared to 2010,is expected for the aggregate NDCs of all 194 Parties.This translates to a global average temperature rise of about 2.7 C by the end of the century.78 Just 56%of NDCs(Figure 9)include quantified renew
166、able power targets to collectively reach 3.7 TW79 of clean energy provision by 2030.The pathway to reach the Paris Agreement demands an additional 7.1 TW of clean energy by 2030.80 Most of the countries that have committed to 100%renewables in their electricity mix by 2030 are SIDS.81 Although clima
167、te is a major driver for renewables deployment in these countries,increased ambition is also driven by energy security and other socioeconomic benefits,which are adversely affected by importing fossil fuels.However,these targets remain conditional on international support in the form of financing,te
168、chnology transfer and technical assistance.Among the G20 and other high emitters,only seven Parties included targets related to increased power supply from renewables.Of these,only two presented them as a share of electricity mix,and those shares were less than 25%.82 Although renewable energy syste
169、ms are weather and climate dependent,which calls for improved climate information and services for the energy sector,the value of climate services for mitigation is only recognized by 6%of NDCs(Figure 10).This is in sharp contrast to the frequency with which climate services are recognized as a prio
170、rity for supporting adaptation in agriculture and food security(85%),83 disaster risk reduction(88%)84 and water resource management(50%)85,86 in Parties NDCs.Figure 9:2030 renewable energy targets in the NDCsSource:IRENAs Energy Transition Support to Strengthen Climate Action17Figure 10:Sectors cov
171、ered by NDC mitigation targets,in number of Parties from 2016 to March 2022.LULUCF land use,land-use change and forestry.Figure 11:RISE scores reflecting a snapshot of countries policies and regulations in the energy sector,organized by the four pillars of sustainable energy:electricity access,clean
172、 cooking,energy efficiency and renewable energy(as of June 2022)87 RISEAdoption of the policies and regulations necessary to enable decarbonization in the energy sector is still particularly weak in Africa,South America and Asia;however,there are disparities between different countries in those regi
173、ons,according to the World Banks Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy(RISE)(Figure 11).RISE scores reflect a snapshot of a countrys policies and regulations in the energy sector,organized by the four pillars of sustainable energy:electricity access,clean cooking,energy efficiency and renewab
174、le energy.87Despite the exposure and vulnerability of the sector to climate variability,extremes and change,of the 194 NDCs submitted by Parties to the secretariat of the UNFCCC(as of March 2022),just 40%of NDCs prioritize adaptation in the energy sector,failing to recognize that climate change is p
175、utting the energy sector at risk.Energy is only the ninth most frequent adaptation priority in Parties NDCs,with most Parties identifying agriculture and food security,water,health,and ecosystems and biodiversity as the top adaptation priorities(Figure 12).Of the minority of Parties that do prioriti
176、ze energy for adaption,only 64%mention the climate services that will be needed for that purpose 18(Figure 12),with most climate-services-related activities not directly mentioned under the energy sector,but rather mentioned in cross-cutting activities.For example,Equatorial Guinea highlighted the n
177、eed to identify the locations of rain gauge stations in hydroelectric plants to monitor the changes in precipitation.Therefore,although the gap is not as stark as in the case of the exceedingly low level of recognition of the need for climate services to support renewable energy as a mitigation meas
178、ure reviewed earlier,there is clearly a low level of recognition in the NDCs of both the need for adaptation in the energy sector and of the need for climate services providing the necessary support.88 Tracking SDG7:The Energy Progress Report 202289 Share of renewable energy in total final energy co
179、nsumption.90 SEforALL Analysis of SDG7 Progress 202191 SEforALL Analysis of SDG7 Progress 202192 Revisions of underlying statistical data and methodological improvements explain the slight changes in historical growth rates from previous editions.TheSDG 7.3 target of improving energy intensity by 2.
180、6%per year in 20102030 remains the same,however.93 Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE)The relatively low priority given to adaptation in the energy sector is particularly striking given the generally high recognition by Parties of energy as an underpinning,cross-cutting sector supporting the ac
181、hievement of adaptation in other climate-sensitive sectors,such as water(51%),infrastructure(36%)and agriculture(26%)(Figure 13).For example,Cabo Verde highlighted in its NDC,in the water-associated measures,the need to increase its installed renewable capacity as an energy source for the production
182、 of desalinated water.The importance of energy in this regard strengthens the case for ensuring that adaptation in the sector is adequately supported.ENERGY51%36%26%11%10%9%WaterInfrastructureAgriculture&food securityDisaster risk reductionHealthForestryFigure 13:Overview of the interaction between
183、energy and the other sectors indicated in the NDCs of 70 Parties which mentioned energy in relation to other sectorsAgriculture&food securityWaterHealthEcosystems&biodiverityDRRInfrastructure/cities/urbanizationForestryCoastal zonesEnergyTourismEducationFigure 12:Sectors identified as priorities for
184、 adaptation in the 194 NDCs submitted from 2016 to March 2022PROGRESS IN ACHIEVING SDG 7 ON ENERGY88 The world is set to fall short of achieving the goal of universal access to affordable,reliable,sustainable and modern energy by 2030,as set out in SDG No.7,by a wide margin.Based on current trends,t
185、he world is not on track to achieve SDG Target 7.1(Figure 14).Projections show an increase in the share of renewables in the energy mix89 to between 18%and 22%by 2030.90 These expected moderate gains in the share of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 notwithstanding,renewable energy systems need t
186、o be expanded to meet these needs.In 2019,the share of renewable energy sources in total final energy consumption(TFEC)amounted to 17.7%only 0.4%points higher than the year before.Renewable energy consumption increased by 2.8%from the year before,as TFEC expanded by 0.7%.Africa has the highest share
187、 of renewables in its TFEC overall,at 54.2%;of that,only 7.6%91 is from modern renew-ables the lowest percentage among all regions.Energy efficiency improvements continue to remain below the target set under the SDGs for 2030.Between 2010 and 2019,the average annual rate of improvement in global ene
188、rgy efficiency was 1.9%.Although better than the rate of 1.2%between 1990 and 2010,it was well below the level of 2.6%specified in SDG Target 7.3.92 The average annual rate of improvement now has to reach 3.2%to make up for lost ground.This rate would need to be even higher consistently over 4%for t
189、he rest of this decade if the world is to reach NZE from the energy sector by 2050,as envisioned in IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.9319Figure 14:Primary indicators of global progress toward the SDG 7 targetsSource:IEA,IRENA,UNSD,World Bank,WHO.Tracking SDG 7:The Energy Progress Report.Worl
190、d Bank,Washington DC.2022 World Bank.License:Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial 3.0 IGO(CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO).94 UN-Energy Plan of Action Towards 202595 The UN-Energy Pledge96 Energy Compact Action Network BrochureUN-ENERGY COMMITTED TO TRANSLATE COMMITMENTS INTO IMPACT UN-Energy is the United
191、Nations mechanism for inter-agency collaboration in the field of energy.The UN-Energy Plan of Action Towards 2025,94 launched in May 2022,sets out a framework for collective action by nearly 30 United Nations and international organizations,in order to achieve the goals of the UN-Energy pledge.95 To
192、 tackle these large-scale challenges,the Plan identifies seven work areas,including catalysing multi-stakeholder partnerships by scaling up Energy Compacts.By mobilizing voluntary commitments from all stakeholders and providing an effective tool for driving holistic and inclusive action,the Energy C
193、ompacts are a key vehicle to trans-late the Global Roadmap for Accelerated SDG7 Action delivered by the United Nations Secretary-General as an outcome of the High-level Dialogue on Energy held in September 2021 under the auspices of the General Assembly into concrete actions and partnerships.To date
194、,over 200 Energy Compacts have been announced that amount to investment commitments of over US$600 billion by governments and the private sector alone.Supported by UN-Energy,an Energy Compact Action Network96 has also been established to match those governments seeking support for their clean energy
195、 goals with governments and businesses that have pledged to support implementation of these commitments.A number of coalitions have already been formed,including to support energy access and transition in Nigeria and the city of Santiago,Chile,showcasing the Networks potential,as well as to advance
196、or expand coalitions supporting green hydrogen and a stronger role for women in leading and benefiting from the energy transition.20Photo:Alexei Scutari/UnsplashPriorities and needs97 Weather&Climate Services for the Energy Industry 98 Six levels of sophistication of climate services to the energy s
197、ector:1=initial engagement with sector;2=definition of needs;3=co-design of products;4=tailored products accessible for use;5=climate services guide policy decisions and investment plans in sectors;6=documentation of socioeconomic benefits.99 Based on 193 WMO Members.100 Of the Members that responde
198、d,36%are high-income,26%upper-middle-income,25%lower-middle-income,and 13%low-income.Weather,water and climate services are crucial for energy security and the global energy transition to achieve net zeroMeeting the worlds ever-growing energy demand,coupled with an imperative to transition to greene
199、r,and renewable,sources and more sustainable and resilient energy systems,creates new needs.As with traditional energy generation,renewable energy systems are weather and climate dependent,so the transition to clean energy calls for improved climate information and services for the energy sector.Cli
200、mate services are needed to ensure the resilience of energy systems to climate-related shocks and to inform measures to increase energy efficiency.Risk assessments addressing planning for and early warning of adverse events affecting energy supply and demand can help populations to anticipate,absorb
201、,accommodate and recover from adverse impacts.For example,early weather warnings can safeguard energy supply in Beijing,China,climate stress tests can ensure effective electricity distribution in the Dolomites region of Italy,and severe weather warnings can protect offshore wind power production in
202、China.Climate services are also essential for renewable energy,including for:site selection,resource assessment and financing;operations,maintenance and management of energy systems;electricity integration into the grid;and impact assessment of energy systems.For example,climate services are providi
203、ng warnings ahead of dry conditions for hydropower operations planning in Tajikistan;localized wind-resource information is aiding full-value-chain wind industry decision-making;and climate services are supporting the placement of solar panels on noise barriers in Germany.Given the need for an unpre
204、cedentedly rapid transition of the sector,and the current very low levels of recognition of what will be required to achieve that rapid transition in terms of climate services compared to other sectors such as agriculture,water resource management and disaster risk reduction where the role of climat
205、e services is well established and understood,the transition to clean energy also requires a new paradigm for a more effective exchange of information between weather,water and climate specialists and energy-sector stakeholders.And specifically,the energy transition will require improved communicati
206、on and collaboration between climate services providers and energy industries.97 According to a survey of NMHSs conducted by the WMO Study Group on Integrated Energy Services,79%of WMO Members provide climate services for energy,including some particularly notable examples.Also,less than 50%of Membe
207、rs provide tailored products for the energy sector(Figure 15),which shows the untapped potential of NMHSs and the efforts required to address the emerging needs of this sector.Figure 15:Percentage of WMO Member NMHSs providing climate services to the energy sector globally and by type of productEner
208、gyData servicesEnergyClimate monitoringEnergyClimate analysis and diagnosticsEnergyClimate predictionsEnergyClimate change projectionsEnergyTailored productsOverall,WMO found that climate services for energy are not performing well.The global average rating given by Members is just three out of six9
209、8 potential levels of service representing increasing user engagement.Future activities should focus on better addressing the needs of end users,according to Climate Investment Funds(CIF).Only 16%99 of Members reported having a national working group for the energy sector.Thirty-six Members highligh
210、ted adequate organizational structures within NMHSs as one of the top three enabling factors to improve uptake of climate services for energy transition towards NZE.Specialized services for renewable energy are sub-optimal.Further increases are needed in the density of meteorological observations to
211、 address significant monitoring gaps and improve data coverage according to CIF,a conclusion confirmed by WMO data.As of 14 July 2022,87 WMO Members had responded to the NMHS energy-sector survey.100 The majority(69)reported not having access to energy observational or simulated data on energy from
212、other national public,private and/or academic sector entities,while only 18 Members reported having access,with the majority of these(10 Members)being from Europe.Additionally,62 Members(Figure 16)reported not maintaining a dedicated 21observing network for energy services.Installation of weather st
213、ations near energy assets was identified as top priority by 60 Members(Figure 17).Fifty-eight Members reported providing climate hazard early warnings to the energy sector.Figure 16:WMO Member NMHSs maintaining dedicated observing networks for energy services(top)and details of networks being mainta
214、ined(bottom)Source:WMO Best Practices for Integrated Weather and Climate Services in Support of Net Zero Energy Transition(in press)Figure 17:Infrastructure equipment and services needs highlighted by WMO Member NMHSsSource:WMO Best Practices for Integrated Weather and Climate Services in Support of
215、 Net Zero Energy Transition(in press)22THE ROLE OF PUBLICPRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN ENHANCING CLIMATE SERVICES The public sector plays a prominent role in the development of climate services for the energy sector(Figure 18).The private sector is rapidly developing such services,however,resulting in a h
216、ealthy mix of public and private climate service providers.The numbers of organizations providing climate services to the energy sector that responded to a 2015/2016 survey by WEMC,101 by type,were as follows:Public:21(including government and research institutes);Private:10(including private and co
217、nsultancy);Other:4;International organizations:2.The climate services market is rapidly growing,attracting private players102 of different sizes from the largest corporations to start-ups in varying segments of the value chain from modelling to smart sensors with the private sector generally ready t
218、o respond to clients needs more quickly than public institutions.Private companies can lower the risks associated with innovation by partnering with research institutions.Bilateral collaborations and contracts(in the context of publicprivate partnerships)are a solution to limit these risks and respo
219、nd to specific user needs in a timely fashion,as highlighted by 52 WMO Member NMHSs.Strength-ening partnerships and collaboration through demand-led and co-created project design processes across regions,government agencies,key sectors,the private sector and vulnerable communities,to promote buy-in
220、and collab-oration,emerges as a solution from the 2021 Learning Review of CIF-Supported Hydromet and Climate Services Projects.102 These partnerships have an added value later in research and innovation projects that aspire to produce climate services,according to the Barcelona Supercomputing Center
221、.By working closely with industrial partners,researchers better understand user needs,language and ways of working.This interaction enables researchers to address more ambitious and relevant societal challenges by involving users as partners.This engagement benefits all partners,including by produci
222、ng relevant results and by limiting risks to the private sector,as mentioned previously.101 Weather&Climate Services for the Energy Industry102 Systematic Analysis of EU-based Climate Service Providers103 Learning Review of CIF-Supported Hydromet and Climate Services ProjectsFigure 18:Scope of activ
223、ities in organisations operating in meteorology and climate that responded to the WEMC surveySource:Weather&Climate Services for the Energy Industry23Photo:Towfiqu barbhuiya/UnsplashInvestmentInvestments in renewable energy need to triple by 2050,including for climate services for energy104 Global L
224、andscape of Climate Finance 2021105 The Power to Change:Solar and Wind Cost Reduction Potential to 2025106 Global Landscape of Renewable Energy Finance 2020107 Renewable Energy Market Analysis:Africa and its RegionsGlobal climate finance reached US$632 billion a year in 20192020,increasing just 10%c
225、ompared to 20172018.Analysis carried out by CPI indicates that current levels are falling far short of estimated needs.Mitigation finance totalled US$571 billion in 20192020,while adaptation finance commitments were US$46 billion.A further US$15 billion went to projects with dual benefits(both mitig
226、ation and adaptation).Climate investments in energy supply reached an average of US$334 billion a year in 20192020,representing 58%of total mitigation finance and 53%of total climate finance.At US$324 billion,renewable energy represented 57%of total mitigation finance in 20192020.104 Despite the imp
227、act of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy,average annual renewable energy investments remained stable in 20192020 compared to 20172018(Figure 19).The average costs for electricity generated by solar and wind technologies could decrease by between 26%and 59%by 2025,according to IRENA.With th
228、e right regulatory and policy frameworks in place,cost reductions can continue to be realized in solar and wind technologies until 2025 and beyond.105 PV and wind(both onshore and offshore)attracted 91%of total renewable energy investments in 20192020.Other technologies,such as bioenergy,hydropower
229、and geothermal accounted for much smaller shares,between 0.3%and 3%.In line with overall mitigation finance flows,in 20192020,the majority of renewable energy investments were made in the East Asia and Pacific region,mainly China and Japan,followed by Western Europe,and North America,mainly the Unit
230、ed States and Canada.Since 2013,these three regions have consistently attracted 65%75%of global investments,while developing and emerging economies continue to remain underrepresented.106 While renewable energy investments have increased over time,the current level of investment needs to at least tr
231、iple to put the world on a net zero trajectory by 2050.Developing and emerging economies continue to remain underrepresented when it comes to accessing clean energy finance,according to IRENA and CPI.Only 2%of such investments in the last two decades were made in Africa.107 Climate-adaptation-focuse
232、d investments in the energy sector remain very low,at just over US$300 million,tracked per year in 20192020.Investments in dual benefits projects for the energy sector targeting both mitigation and adaptation were somewhat higher at US$1.5 billion a year in 20192020.BNEF Green ScenarioIEA NZE Scenar
233、ioIRENA 1.5C Scenario(USD billion)2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,00080060040020002015/162017/182019/20202352040204520502953243241.9 tn/yr1.2 tn/yr1.1 tn/yrFigure 19:Annual renewable energy investments(20152020)versus average investment needs through 2050Source:Global Landscape of Climate Fina
234、nce 202124Photo:Towfiqu barbhuiya/UnsplashFINANCING TO SUPPORT ACHIEVING SDG 7 IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES108 International public financing commitments for energy projects that support achieving SDG 7 in developing countries are still insufficient to mobilize the larger volumes of investment required t
235、o meet the target.International public financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy decreased in 2019 for the second year in a row,falling to US$10.9 billion at 2019 prices and exchange rates.This level of support was 23%less than the US$14.2 billion provided in 2018,25%less th
236、an the 20102019 average,and less than half of the peak of US$24.7 billion in 2017.CLIMATE FINANCE INSTITUTIONS SUPPORTING CLIMATE SERVICES FOR ENERGY The Adaptation Fund has invested over US$65 million of its US$908 million portfolio in climate information services.The funding supports creation of i
237、nfrastructure for climate information services,as well as capacity-building activities for key government institutions and other relevant actors,and as such,generates the potential to build resilience in the energy sector as well.However,due to low country demand to-date,the number of funding reques
238、ts received by the Adaptation Fund so far in the energy sector has been small.CIF has invested over US$220 million of its US$1.2 billion of climate-resilience funding in activities to strengthen hydrometeorology and climate services in selected countries.109 This investment addresses the full weathe
239、r and climate information services value chain,including:observations and monitoring;data and information management;research,forecasting and modelling;and the development and provision of improved services,as well as the training and capacity building underpinning all four components.GEF,through th
240、e Least Developed Countries Fund(LDCF)and the Special Climate Fund(SCCF),has provided more than US$850 million in grant finance to date for projects that include climate information services.The systemic capacity building in key institutions and creation of infrastructure for climate information ser
241、vices under these projects will benefit multiple sectors,including in some cases the energy sector.Some LDCF-and SCCF-financed projects include a specific focus on enhancing the climate resilience of the energy sector.The GCF was established under the Cancn Agreements in 2010 as a financial mechanis
242、m of the Paris Agreement and UNFCCC.The total current(May 2021)GCF portfolio amounts to US$10.1 billion110 in committed funding,of which energy-access and power-generation projects constitute 25%(US$2.5 billion).Energy efficiency and low-emission transport account for US$1.3 billion and US$0.5 billi
243、on,respectively.The area of cities,buildings and urban systems also to a large degree includes energy optimization,and this result area amounts to US$0.9 billion.Hence,half of the GCF commitments are allocated to projects in the energy sector.The bulk of energy-sector-related commitments are devoted
244、 to the AsiaPacific region(US$2 billion(39%)and Africa(US$2 billion(38%).Commitments to energy-sector projects in Latin America and the Caribbean amount to US$0.8 billion(16%),and US$0.3 billion(6%)is devoted to Eastern Europe.111 108 Tracking SDG7:The Energy Progress Report 2022109 Learning Review
245、of CIF-Supported Hydromet and Climate Services Projects110 US$39 billion,when both GCF and non-GCF co-financing are included.111 The information on the climate services for energy portfolio is not available.25Photo:Kyle Glenn/UnsplashRegional overviewSDG 7 overview112 112 This is an adaptation of an
246、 original work by IEA,IRENA,UNSD,World Bank and WHO.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by IEA,IRENA,UNSD,World Bank and WHO.113 Modern renewables include all uses of renewable energy with the exce
247、ption of traditional use of solid biomass.114 Energy intensity is the ratio of total energy supply to the annual GDP created in essence,the amount of energy used per unit of wealth created.It drops as energy efficiency improves.115 Global Landscape of Renewable Energy Finance 2020116 Africa Power Se
248、ctor:Planning and Prospects for Renewable Energy117 Scaling Up Renewable Energy Deployment in Africa:Impact of IRENAs EngagementIn 2019,the share of renewable energy sources in TFEC amounted to 17.7%only 0.4%higher than the year before.Significant regional disparities lie behind these global improve
249、ments(Figure 20).Africa has the largest share of renewable sources in its energy supply,though modern renewables represent only 7.6%of the renewable total.Excluding traditional uses of biomass,South America is the region with the largest share of modern renewables in TFEC,thanks to significant hydro
250、power generation,the consumption of bioenergy in industrial processes and the use of biofuels for transport.In 2019,44%of the global year-on-year increase in modern renewable energy consumption took place in Eastern Asia,where hydropower,solar PV and wind dominated growth.Figure 20:Percentage share
251、of modern renewable energy systems112 and other renewable systems,by regionSource:SDG 7.2 data are sourced from IEA,IRENA and UNSD and analysed by WMO to fit its regional classification.The rate of improvement in global primary energy intensity114 has slowed in recent years,and differences are obser
252、vable across regions(Figure 21).Eastern Asia and South-East Asia surpassed the SDG 7.3 target between 2010 and 2019,with energy intensity improving by an annual average rate of 2.7%,driven by strong economic growth.Average annual improvement rates in Oceania(2.2%),Northern America and Europe(2%),and
253、 Central Asia and Southern Asia(2%)were also above the global average and historical trends.Energy intensity in Africa is the highest among all other regions,highlighting differences in economic structure,energy supply and access rather than energy efficiency.Figure 21:Energy intensity level of prim
254、ary energy(MJ/$2017 purchasing power parity(PPP)GDP)by WMO region including SIDS and LDCsSource:SDG 7.3 data are sourced from IEA and UNSD and analysed by WMO to fit its regional classification.InvestmentIn line with overall mitigation finance flows,in 20192020 the majority of renewable energy inves
255、tments were made in the East Asia and Pacific region,mainly China and Japan,followed by Western Europe,and North America,mainly the United States and Canada.Since 2013,these three regions have consistently attracted 65%75%of global investments,while developing and emerging economies continue to rema
256、in underrepresented,115 despite their potential renewable energy resources(Figures 2224).Renewable energy potentialThe power sector presents a significant opportunity for transformation through the increased deployment of renewable energy technologies.Renewable energy resources are plentiful in Afri
257、ca,especially solar,but also wind,biomass,geothermal and hydropower.116 Africa could meet nearly a quarter of its energy needs from indigenous and clean renewable energy by 2030.Modern renewables amounting to 310 GW could provide half the continents total electricity generation capacity.This corresp
258、onds to a sixfold increase from the capacity available in 2021,which amounted to 56 GW.117 26According to IRENA,the share of renewables in the generation mix could grow to 50%by 2030 in Africa.The total installed renewable energy generation capacity would reach 310 GW.Hydropower and wind capacity co
259、uld reach 100 GW each,and solar capacity could reach over 90 GW.This would be an overall tenfold renewable energy capacity increase from 2013 levels for the power sector in Africa.118 According to IEA,South-East Asia has considerable potential for renewable energy,but(excluding the traditional use o
260、f solid biomass)renewables currently meet only around 15%of the regions energy demand.Hydropower output has quadrupled since 2000,and the modern use of bioenergy in heating and transport has also increased rapidly.119 A recent study assessed the national potential of wind and PV to help China achiev
261、e its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.120 The results showed that,under the current technological level,the wind and PV installed capacity potential of China is approximately nine times that required under the carbon-neutral scenario.Latin America is a region of rapid growth for renewable energy,w
262、ith interest in developing those resources growing even faster.121 Additionally,according to IRENA,the region hosts some of the worlds most dynamic renewable energy markets,building on the historical role of hydropower the cornerstone of the regions power sector development and liquid biofuels,drive
263、n by Brazils early determination to diversify its transport fuel mix.122 North America features some of the worlds richest wind,solar,geothermal,hydropower and biomass resources.123 The region relies on renewable energy for large-scale power generation,particularly in the form of hydropower.124 The
264、South-West Pacific region is rich in renewable energy resources,with potential for hydropower in Fiji,Papua New Guinea,Samoa,Solomon Islands,the Federated States of Micronesia and Vanuatu,and strong potential for solar and,to a lesser extent,wind throughout the region.125 The Pacific islands are end
265、owed with a rich variety of renewable energy resources,providing a viable and attractive alternative to fossil fuel imports.The people of the Pacific islands are cognizant of the fact that universal access to secure,robust,sustainable and affordable electricity,transport fuel and household energy se
266、rvices is crucial for their sustainable development efforts and that energy supplies must be resilient to climate change and natural disasters and increasingly supplied by renewable resources,with 118 Africa 2030:Roadmap for a Renewable Energy Future119 Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019120 Assessme
267、nt of Wind and Photovoltaic Power Potential in China121 Renewable Energy in Latin America 2015:An Overview of Policies122 Renewable Energy Market Analysis:Latin America123 North America124 North America125 The Pacific Islands:The Push for Renewable Energy126 Framework for Energy Security and Resilie
268、nce in the Pacific(FESRIP)20212030127 Renewable Energy Statistics128 Transforming Small-island Power Systems:Technical Planning Studies for the Integration of Variable Renewables129 Renewables and Energy Transitions in Small Island States130 SIDS Lighthouses initiative131 LDC REEEI Framework132 LDC-
269、Progress in Least Developed Countries Hinges on Access to Modern Energy,new United Nations Report Says133 High-level Briefing to LDCs Group on Accelerating Sustainable Recovery with Renewable Energyimproved energy efficiency,upgraded energy infrastructure and improved technologies.In their resolve t
270、o contribute to achieving the Paris Agreement goal,Pacific islands energy Ministers have reaffirmed their commitment to 100%renewable energy generation for the Pacific islands region.126 In Europe,the share of renewable energy more than doubled between 2004 and 2020,reaching 22.1%of gross final ener
271、gy consumption in 2020.Wind and hydropower each accounted for more than two thirds of the total electricity generated from renewable sources(36%and 33%,respectively).The remaining third was generated from solar power(14%),solid biofuels(8%)and other renewable sources(8%).Solar power has been the fas
272、test-growing source since 2008.127 SIDS face a range of pressing challenges,from coping with the effects of climate change to dependence on costly fuel imports to meet their energy needs.To address these challenges,SIDS have resolved to harness their vast renewable energy potential,with a view to st
273、rengthening climate resilience and improving energy security.128 Most SIDS are well placed geographically and geomorphologically to benefit from solar and wind potentials,tidal and oceanic energy sources,and sometimes geothermal and hydropower.129 Through the SIDS Lighthouses initiative(LHI),most of
274、 the targets for 2020 and 2023 have been met or exceeded ahead of schedule.Taking into account the success in surpassing the previous targets,the SIDS LHI has revised its target to 10 GW of total renewable energy installed capacity in all SIDS by 2030.This new target has formed the basis of the IREN
275、A-AOSIS Energy Compact and the Ambitious SIDS Climate Action Summit Package,which are operationalized by the SIDS LHI.130 According to the Least Developed Countries Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Initiative for Sustainable Development,while most LDCs are endowed with significant renewable en
276、ergy resource potentials,the majority of their people,productive sectors and development efforts suffer from energy deficits.131 Renewable energy sources,such as solar and wind power,could have a revolutionary effect in rural areas,home to 82%of those without power in LDCs,and help to overcome the h
277、istorical obstacles to rural electrification.132 Access to energy in the LDCs remains a major challenge despite the extraordinary growth potential for energy transformation in these countries.Appropriate financing is needed more than ever to transform livelihoods and economies to build a future base
278、d on climate-resilient,low-emission development.133 27Figure 22:Long-term average daily/yearly sum of electricity production from a 1 kW peak grid-connected solar PV power plantSource:Global Solar Atlas 2.0;Solar resource data:Solargis,from 1994 to 2018 for some regions Figure 23:An estimate of mean
279、 power density at 100 m above surface level globally.Power density indicates wind-power potential,part of which can be extracted by wind turbines.The map is derived from high-resolution wind-speed distributions based on a chain of models,which downscale winds from global models(30 km)to mesoscale(3
280、km)and to microscale(250 m).The Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)mesoscale model uses data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF Reanalysis v5(ECMWF ERA5)reanalysis data for atmospheric forcing,sampling from the period 19982017.Source:Global Wind Atlas,v.3,from 1998 t
281、o 201728Figure 24:An estimate of potential hydropower plant locations(for microhydropower to large-sized plants)based on the Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010(GMTED2010)break line datasets(elevation)and runoff data from the Global Runoff Data CentreSource:Global Potential Hydropowe
282、r Locations Research Dataset OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE SERVICES FOR ENERGYWith regard to the provision of climate services,data show that all regions have a high number of Member NMHSs providing those services to the energy sector.Regional disparities exist when it comes to the provision of the different
283、products,with climate projections provided by the lowest percentage of NMHSs across all regions,except Europe(Figure 25).Figure 25:Percentage of WMO Member NMHSs in each region providing climate services(CS)for energy,by type of product.Information collected from 2020 to May 2022.29Photo:Matthew Hen
284、ry/UnsplashGaps134 World Energy Outlook 2021135 Water Stress Threatens Nearly Half the Worlds Thermal Power Plant Capacity136 Using the WWF Water Risk Filter to Screen Existing and Projected Hydropower Projects for Climate and Biodiversity Risks137 IAEA,Climate Change and Nuclear Power,Securing Clea
285、n Energy for Climate Resilience(in press)138 IAEA,Climate Change and Nuclear Power,Securing Clean Energy for Climate Resilience(in press)139 Six levels of sophistication of climate services to the energy sector:1=initial engagement with sector;2=definition of needs;3=co-design of products;4=tailored
286、 products accessible for use;5=climate services guide policy decisions and investment plans in sectors;6=documentation of socioeconomic benefits.140 Renewable Energy Market Analysis:Africa and its Regions1.THE IMPACT OF INCREASING CONCENTRATIONS OF GHGs IN THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO RAISE CONCERNS
287、ABOUT ENERGY SECURITY.Heatwaves and droughts associated with anthropogenic climate change are major hazards for energy systems.Systems dominated by renewable energy are highly climate sensitive,yet recognition of the need for climate services to support expansion of renewable energy and other forms
288、of mitigation remains extremely low compared with other climate-sensitive sectors.2.JUST 40%OF NDCs SUBMITTED BY PARTIES TO THE UNFCCC PRIORITIZE ADAPTATION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR.This is despite the fact that in 2020,87%of global electricity generation provided by nuclear,thermal and hydroelectric sy
289、stems directly depended on water availability.A third of the thermal power plants that rely on freshwater availability for cooling are already located in high water stress areas.This is also the case for 15%of existing nuclear power plants,a share expected to increase to 25%in the next 20 years.134
290、Eleven per cent of hydroelectric capacity is located in highly water-stressed areas.135 And approximately 26%of existing hydropower dams and 23%of projected dams are within river basins that currently have a medium to very high risk of water scarcity.136 Heatwaves and droughts associated with climat
291、e change are already putting existing energy generation under stress.137 Because of past and future green-house gas emissions,a gradual and irreversible rise of the sea level will occur throughout the century and well beyond,irrespective of the future state of the climate,with consequences for the d
292、esign and siting of current and future facilities located on coastlines.138 Seventy-three nuclear powerplants are located near the seacoast,according to IAEA.3.CURRENT GHG REDUCTION COMMITMENTS MADE BY COUNTRIES ARE STILL WELL SHORT OF WHAT IS NEEDED TO ACHIEVE THE LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE GOAL OF THE
293、PARIS AGREEMENT.Supply from low-emissions energy sources needs to double,according to IEA.Just 56%of NDCs include quantified targets for renewable power to collectively reach 3.7 TW of clean energy provision by 2030.The pathway to reach the Paris Agreement goal,limiting temperature rise to well belo
294、w 2 C,demands 7.1 TW of clean energy by 2030,according to IRENA.4.MORE THAN 70%OF WMO MEMBER NMHSs PROVIDE CLIMATE SERVICES FOR ENERGY.CURRENT CLIMATE SERVICES ARE NOT PERFORMING WELL AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT MISMATCH BETWEEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SERVICE DELIVERY AND THE ACTUAL DEMAND FOR SUCH SERVIC
295、ES.Climate services are crucial in enabling the global energy transition,ensuring the resilience of energy systems to climate-related shocks and to inform measures to increase energy efficiency.The global average rating given by Members is just three out of six139 potential levels of service represe
296、nting increasing user engagement.Moreover,just 6%of NDCs mention climate services for energy for mitigation,versus 64%for adaptation,indicating under-recognition of the need for such services to support the energy transition.5.DEVELOPING AND EMERGING ECONOMIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDERREPRESENTED WHE
297、N IT COMES TO ACCESSING CLEAN ENERGY FINANCE.The majority of renewable energy investments are being made in the East Asia and Pacific region mainly China and Japan,followed by Western Europe,and North America,mainly the United States and Canada,according to CPI.Least developed countries receive only
298、 a fraction of international financing for renewable energy,and only 2%of such investments in the last two decades were made in Africa.140 30Photo:Matthew Henry/UnsplashPhoto:Seth Doyle/UnsplashRecommendationsTHERE IS A HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR AFRICA TO HELP CLOSE THE GAP IN THE NEED FOR RENEWABLE ENER
299、GY.141 As compared to annual renewable energy investments(20192020),according to CPI.142 Renewable Energy Market Analysis:Africa and its Regions143 Africa Energy Outlook,IEA,2022144 Africa Energy Outlook,IEA,2022145 Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE)To put the world on a trajectory to reach NZ
300、E by 2050,current levels of investment in renewable energy,including in associated climate services,need to at least triple.141 Given current low levels of investment in Africa,there is great potential for clean energy investments in that region.African nations host the lowest percentage of modern r
301、enewable systems(just 7.6%of final energy consumption),and only 2%of global investments in renewable energy in the last two decades were made in Africa.142 The region has huge potential to deploy solar energy systems;Africa is home to 60%of the best solar resources globally,yet only 1%of installed s
302、olar PV capacity.143 It also has large resource potential in wind and hydropower.According to IEA,bringing access to modern energy for all Africans calls for investment of US$25 billion per year.144 By 2050,the global power sector will consist mainly of renewable energy,with solar the single largest
303、 source of supply,according to IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.145 African countries have an opportunity to be major players within the market.Figure 26:Renewable energy potential and capacity installed in Africa,for wind,solar and hydropowerSource:IRENA,2022ENERGY POLICIES AND COMMITMENTS
304、NEED TO BETTER ADDRESS ENERGY SECURITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE AND PROMOTE THE TRANSITION TO NET ZERO,INCLUDING BY SCALING UP CLIMATE,WATER AND WEATHER SERVICES.More effective climate services for energy will not only create attractive market conditions to scale up renewable energy infrastructure,but
305、they will also ensure that clean energy systems are efficient and resilient to climate change.Increased,sustained investments and enhanced policies are required to achieve this goal.There is currently little recognition of the need for such services in NDCs,in which the need for adaptation in the en
306、ergy sector is under-recognized in relation to the exposure and vulnerability of the sector,along with its importance for other sectors,and in which the recognition of the need for climate services for mitigation,including for energy,is almost absent.31SPECIALIZED SERVICES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY ARE S
307、UB-OPTIMAL.GIVEN THE INCREASING RATE OF NEW RENEWABLE GENERATION,THERE IS A NEED TO CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHEN THESE SERVICES.146 Learning Review of CIF-Supported Hydromet and Climate Services ProjectsFuture activities should focus on better addressing the needs of end users,according to CIF.Strengthen
308、ing partnerships and collaboration through demand-led and co-created project design processes across regions,government agencies,key sectors,the private sector and vulnerable communities,to promote buy-in and collaboration,emerges as a solution from the 2021 Learning Review of CIF-Supported Hydromet
309、 and Climate Services Projects.146 This is further confirmed by WMO data from 52 Members.Furthermore,increases are needed in the density of meteorological observations to address significant monitoring gaps and improve data coverage according to CIF,a conclusion confirmed by WMO data.Fifty-six WMO M
310、ember NMHSs confirmed the need for training courses and workshop to strengthen their capacity to improve delivery of climate services to the energy sector.32CLIMATE SERVICES FOR ENERGY SECURITY CASE STUDY 1Climate services to support long-term energy planning for climate change impacts on European p
311、ower systemsRseau de Transport dlectricit(RTE),the electricity transmission system operator of France,uses climate information and energy conversion models to calculate electricity demand and how it will be met by different generation means,including renewables for its long-term prospective studies.
312、CHALLENGE Long-term planning for the transition to generating a higher percentage of energy from renewable sources is particularly dependent on climate information.Climate change obviously has significant impacts.A major concern is temperature,which in France may increase on average from 12.0 C in 2
313、000 to 13.6 C in 2050 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario(14.0 C under RCP8.5).According to climate projections,winter cold waves will become less intense and less frequent.A significant increase in the number and duration of summer heat waves is also expected.Wind speed and solar irradiance sh
314、ow light changes,however these are an order of magnitude lower than the current interannual variability.Precipitation,river flow and consequently hydropower generation capacity show a moderate annual decrease,which hinders a stronger seasonal change,with increased generation in winter and decreased
315、generation in summer and early autumn.In compliance with its legal obligations and at the request of the Government of France,RTE initiated a two-year study on the evolution of the power system,Energy Pathways 2050,published in February 2022.This project was undertaken at a crucial point in the publ
316、ic debate about energy and the climate,shaping the strategies that will be adopted to move away from fossil fuels and achieve carbon neutrality in 2050,as per the long-term global goal of the Paris Agreement.APPROACH This study assessed climate change through high-resolution time series for several
317、variables(air temperature,precipitation,river discharge,wind speed and solar irradiance),for the current and projected future climate,at hourly and 20 km resolution,over the whole of Europe.The study included climate simulations designed building on a long-term collaboration with Mto-France,Frances
318、National Meteorological Service.The resulting dataset consists of three sets of 200 climate years.The first one represents the climate of the 2000s,while the other two represent the climate of the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,respectively.These simulations were compared to other sources of data,inc
319、luding EURO CORDEX,Copernicus and some CMIP6 simulations,which established that they are in line with other climate simulations.RTE then designed energy conversion models to calculate the corresponding time series of electricity demand,and generation from wind,solar and hydropower,as well as nuclear
320、 power plant availability based on cooling system constraints.All these data fed RTEs power system model that provides results related to technical,economic,environmental and societal aspects.RESULT As expected,the major change is related to the increase in temperature.While currently the power syst
321、em is very sensitive to extreme cold,the future energy mix will be more sensitive to cold(but not extreme)events associated with wind drought,that is,reduced wind energy generation.However,the analysis showed that most extreme cold events are not associated with the lowest wind speeds.On the other h
322、and,summer stress tests showed that late-summer hydrological drought and heat waves might become more problematic for riverside thermal generation plants.Future activities will include consideration of upgrading the climate database to take into account more recent climate projections,additional RCP
323、 scenarios and additional climate models.A more dynamic representation will also be explored,by considering the models outputs throughout the twenty-first century.While currently the power system in France is very sensitive to extreme cold,the future energy mix will be more sensitive to cold events
324、associated with wind drought and resulting reduced production of wind energy.PARTNERS RTE,Mto-France and Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace(IPSL).Photo:Shane Rounce/Unsplash33CLIMATE SERVICES FOR ENERGY SECURITY CASE STUDY 2EDF is coordinating climate adaptation at a group levelUsing the Copernicus Clima
325、te Change Service(C3S),the global energy business EDF has created an internal climate service to access global climate observations and projections in a consistent way.147 Future High-temperature Extremes and Stationarity148 Extreme Low Flow Estimation under Climate ChangeCHALLENGE Electricity gener
326、ation,load and transmission are highly dependent on the weather conditions.Therefore,EDF,one of Europes major electricity companies,launched a research programme devoted to climate change in 1990.The 2003 heat wave underscored the necessity of adapting to the ongoing changes in the climate,and a ser
327、ies of climate change impact projects were launched starting in 2004.Because the demand for climate impact studies kept growing,coming from more and more branches of the group,it became necessary to ensure consistency between the different studies,in order to appropriately inform the adaptation stra
328、tegy at the group level.APPROACHAt the European level,C3S provides valuable information on the current climate status and its projected evolution.EDF R&D contributed from the beginning to the development of the sectoral service devoted to energy.At the national scale in France,the portal DRIAS les f
329、uturs du climat makes available climate information and projections downscaled to France at 8 km spatial resolution,and EDF R&D set up a users group which oriented the development in the starting phase.While France and Europe are the main regions for EDFs business,it operates worldwide.Therefore,the
330、 need for consistent access to global climate observations and projections to answer various questions soon arose.This led in 2014 to the creation of an internal climate service organized around three pillars:the gathering and provision of data,the development of tools and the development of experti
331、se in climate change science.RESULT Relying on scientific partners and on international data portals like the Copernicus Climate Data Store(CDS),a subset of around 20 models was selected among all the contributors to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects,and the corresponding projections were d
332、ownloaded and stored internally.In terms of emission scenarios,the largest number of scenarios available for most of the models was considered.The selection was based on various criteria,including the model dependency,the IPCC AR6 best estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity range and the need to b
333、est cover the projection spread.Sub-ensembles of EURO CORDEX projections were also retrieved.Basic tools devoted to the manipulation of the datasets have been proposed and shared:calendar management,search for available variables,extraction of selected variables over a chosen region or for selected grid points,bias adjustment and downscaling.Dedicated studies have been devoted to the comparison of